my final top 8:
1. Hoppertunity- has enough tactical speed from the gate to gain a decent stalking trip most of the time, speed-wise he is improving gradually, he can ship and win, and he is one of the few horses in the race that I think will truly appreciate the added furlong of the Derby. The cons mainly relate to the curse of Apollo and the fact that he's already run five times this year, a number matched only by Harry's Holiday. More races means less time between races... will the well run dry in the Derby? I am also a little concerned over the reports of him looking "stiff" while jogging this morning.
2. California Chrome- the single most likely winner of the race imo, but will be poor value no matter how you slice it. It remains to be seen exactly how I utilize him in wagers, but definitely the fastest horse in contention... his recent numbers are on par with what is (or was) the average winning speed figure for the Derby. Obviously he has some question marks, but so does every horse in the field. I do think drawing the 5-hole might force him to use more speed from the gate than he is accustomed to. He also absolutely needs to break well since I think he is only 1-4 after slow breaks.
3. Dance With Fate- wins the award for the best-looking horse in the field, but looks don't win the Derby. His synthetic form is rock solid, dirt is still a question, but he had an excellent work on the SA dirt last Saturday and galloped very strongly over the CD strip yesterday. All accounts says he looks good over the track and his running style will suit the projected pace scenario. He will be closing at the end. He ran the fastest closing 3/8 mile of any horse in the field last out in the Blue Grass (albeit over Polytrack).
4. Samraat- consistency and gameness are his best attributes; the drawbacks are speed figures that are slightly weaker than most of the top contenders, and no real turn of foot. On the plus side his grinding running style has won Derbys in the past, and he does seem to have enough tactical speed early on to position himself well. He's also a horse that I think shouldn't have too much trouble with the added ground, in part because he has an excellent foundation. In pp #6 he is outside of most of the other speed (save Chitu and Wildcat Red), which should give him a slight advantage.
5. Intense Holiday- I wasn't on board with guy until just a few days ago. I found his run in the Louisiana Derby a little lackluster, but he was positioned much closer to the early pace that day and he really prefers to drop back and make a late run. If they revert to that running style I think he will give a good account in the Derby. He is another that has been getting rave reviews about his work over the Churchill surface. He is Pletcher's best shot at a second Derby.
6. Wicked Strong- hard not to root for this guy with the charity he's attached to, and he does have one race that puts him in contention. He's a bit difficult to get a clear read on and I have to assume that he just did not care for the Gulfstream surface since those two races are sort of outliers on his resume.The main negative is his running style since it may be hard for him to avoid traffic with 19 others to watch out for, but should finish strongly. Prior to the post draw I had him ranked much higher... the 20-hole won't matter so much for his running style, but he appears to be a fairly fractious horse and was reportedly shying away from people and objects during early morning training hours this week. He will be the closest to the grandstand of 150,000 drunk, screaming fans, so good luck to him on that regard.
7. Commanding Curve- the "bubble horse" draws into the field at the last minute due to the defection of Ring Weekend and I think he has an excellent chance to pick up the pieces. He's a horse I would use underneath- possibly to round out the trifecta or superfecta. He is a bit on the slow side in comparison to the best here, but the distance won't be an issue, his come-from-behind running style should serve him well, and he broke his maiden at this track, so we know he likes the surface. Figures to be about 40 or 50-1 come post time. Bombs away!
8. Medal Count- the "other" synthetic horse in the field has been turning heads in the morning, ran a fine second to Dance With Fate in the Bluegrass and should give a good account of himself is he gets a decent trip. His closing figures are weaker than DWF though, and the surface is sill a bit of question mark despite his decent works over it. His "wise guy" status means he also might get bet down to shorter odds than he's worth.
