Well, we have been unable to lure Matt Converse here to offer his suggestions, so I'll steal his angle with MOT's Derby Dozen. I figure MOT's Derby Dozen is a lesser facsimile of Matt's Derby Dozen. (SMILE)
And you do not have to wait for the countdown.
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)
He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)
It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)
Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card.
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)
His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)
His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.
Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)
This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
7. Strong Mandate ( Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)
This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)
Next race: San Felipe/Robert Lewis?
Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or San Felipe
9. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)
Next race: Unknown.
Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.
10. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)
Next race: Unknown.
He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.
11. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.
12. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)
Next race: Unknown.
I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)
Next race: Unknown.
Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.
Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)
Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.
A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.
Couldn't even make it until the end of the year without having to edit... SAD
Sorry to see you go NYD.
I guess that's what Honorable Mentions are for...
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)
He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)
It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)
Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card.
Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)
His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)
His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.
Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)
This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)
This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes.
Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.
8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)
Next race: Unknown.
Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.
9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)
Next race: Unknown.
He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.
10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.
11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)
Next race: Unknown.
I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.
12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)
Next race: Unknown.
Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)
Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.
A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.
PS - Other folks are welcome to post their picks as well.
The SoCal ponies who have impressed me most are Shared Belief and Indianapolis ... The East Coaster is Havana. :rhrse:
Indianapolis in the paddock before his one and only race thus far. It's hard to believe this guy is only 2 years old. He's massive for his age!
He was VERY professional and mature beyond his age in the paddock. It REALLY stood out to me. Then he went out and took care of business in an equally professional sense. There's just something about him that makes me say ... WOW!!!
I still haven't mastered the picture posting here ... So just click on the pic and it will become a decent size.
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Here's a good shot of his body too ... Click the pic! :)
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Nice shots.
I understand that the West coasters Shared Belief and Indianapolis are both now targeting the Sham Stakes on January 11th.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 02, 2014, 08:37:47 AM
Nice shots.
I understand that the West coasters Shared Belief and Indianapolis are both now targeting the Sham Stakes on January 11th.
I guess Baffert's pretty high on Indianapolis too ... hopping him straight into the Sham off of 1 career race. :)
Right. That's why I still have Tap It Rich on my list despite his lackluster performances since his maiden win.
If Mr. Baffert sees something in a horse there is s good chance that the quality is there.
One more poor effort, though, and I think TIR may be a late bloomer targeting summer races more than spring ones.
I do think that he was hoping for an easier field than one including Shared Belief.
I removed some of your posts MOT ... I read them and reread them, thinking. ... huh? ;)
Anyway, they're gone.
Now, I must voice my displeasure that Shared Belief gets 0 points for winning a G1 race. Those guys who make these points are a few fries short of a happy meal.
I understood the fact that lesser G1 races like the Del Mar Futurity and perhaps the new Front Runner (former Norfolk Stakes) might not get the nod since it did not in the past - but the Cash Call Futurity had received points and it just seemed a convenient way to dis West Coast horses. Now, the only way West Coasters get any 2 year old points is if they were in the BC Juvenile.
I want to see your Derby Dozens too!
Updated with latest Derby points/Vegas odds on January 8, 2014.
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 4/25-1
He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win.
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1
It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1
Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card.
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1
His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1
His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 30-1
This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes.
Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.
8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost) 175-1
Next race: Unknown.
Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.
9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 25-1
Next race: Unknown.
He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.
10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1
Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds
This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. Two wins on this track bodes well for him if he can earn the points and stretch out. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.
11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat) 325-1
Next race: Unknown.
I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.
12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1
Next race: Unknown.
Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?
A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.
Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 100-1
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bully Stakes at Gulfstream Park
I have to admit among my favorite young horses are those from sires I have met in person. Claiborne's Pulpit and Unbridled are among two of my very favorites with Unbridled ranking at the very top since I only got to meet him once. This grandson of Unbridled on the one hand, and A.P. Indy on the other hand - well I am overwhelmed.
His effort in the G3 Dania Beach Stakes was impressive. While this is turf, he does have a dirt pedigree. So, we'll see how he does especially against Cairo Prince and Havana.
I've not focused much on The Derby Trail yet ....
So I've only got 3 thus far ...
Shared Belief
Indianapolis
Havana
In the order ...
The Hollywood Futurity not counting towards The Derby is a farce.
Thanks Tin Man.
Just to offer others some perspective here are what some folks/sites are saying:
ZJ's Kentucky Derby Dozen
http://hoofprintsandhorseplay.blogspot.com/2013/12/zjs-kentucky-derby-dozen-1-12313.html
Current Point Standings from the Kentucky Derby Website
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
and DRF
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Horse Racing Nation
http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2014_contenders
Here are also the latest Las Vegas odds...
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2014/01/08/kentucky-derby-2014-wynn-las-vegas-updated-odds/
Interesting that neither Shared Belief nor Indianapolis are entered in the Sham Stakes.
Mr. Baffert will send out Midnight Hawk and Mr. Hollendrofer will send out Life Is A Joy.
Mr. Sadler's Kristo is also entered.
Kristo, Rafael Bejarano, 2-1
I'll Wrap It Up, Tyler Baze, 8-1
Life Is a Joy, Corey Nakatani, 12-1
Ontology, Mario Gutierrez, 8-1
Top Fortitude, Kayla Stra, 2-1
Midnight Hawk, Mike Smith, 8-5.
It's good to see Kayla Stra FINALLY getting some good mounts.
I'm surprised (but not THAT surprised) that Shared Belief wasn't in the Sham. Apparently there was some talk on HRTV last week about his being entered, but I had heard he was being pointed for the Robert B Lewis.
Originally, Shared Belief was pointed to the Robert Lewis, but that changed later in the month when Mr. Hollendorfer in an article indicated that he would be pointed to the Robert Lewis.
It would be a shame if one of the top two year olds did not make it to the Kentucky Derby.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 13, 2014, 08:46:55 AM
Originally, Shared Belief was pointed to the Robert Lewis, but that changed later in the month when Mr. Hollendorfer in an article indicated that he would be pointed to the Robert Lewis.
It would be a shame if one of the top two year olds did not make it to the Kentucky Derby.
He's a savvy trainer; I'm sure he will do what's right for the horse...
In other (un-extraordinary) news: I have a Derby list of 2 right now, ha ha:
1. Shared Belief
2. Gold Hawk
:thumbsup:
I've got a grand total of 4 :happy:
1) Havana
2) Shared Belief
3) Rise Up
4) Rankhasprivileges
These picks include their points total/latest Las Vegas odds
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 4/25-1
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2014/01/12/2014-kentucky-derby-cairo-prince-works-5f-in-59-45-for-holy-bull-velazquez-getting-on-horses/
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
http://terryconway.net/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=340:honor-code-top-2014-kentucky-derby-contender&catid=7:pa-equestrian&Itemid=9
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?
http://www.kentucky.com/2014/01/16/3037696/shared-belief-recovering-from.html
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
http://www.drf.com/news/2013-eclipse-awards-havana
6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 30-1
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes?.
8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost) 175-1
Next race: Unknown.
9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 25-1
Next race: Unknown.
10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1
Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds
11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat) 325-1
Next race: Unknown.
12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1
Next race: Unknown.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1
Next race: Unknown.
Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?
Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 100-1
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bully Stakes at Gulfstream Park
It seems like they're waiting a long time for Tapiture to return to the races if he's not running until the end of March.
True.
The Louisiana Derby may end up the goal...and they'll run in the Risen Star or elsewhere.
With 10 points being the limit necessary to enter the Derby last year frankly he probably does not have to run more than once before the Derby and finish in the top four to guarantee a spot in the gate.
It will be interesting to see if its less than 10 this year with a contraction of races on the schedule providing points.
Here's a Haskin Derby Dozen teaser...
The Keyword is 'If'
In this initial look at the Derby picture, we're going to throw some "ifs" around in preparation for the first Derby Dozen, which will not be an easy task this year (Is it ever?).
If Conquest Titan can duplicate his allowance victory in the Holy Bull Stakes, he is going to give Cairo Prince and everyone else more than they can handle. As it is, he is a Top 5 contender right now, based on his electrifying turn of foot and powerhouse move between and around horses in the allowance race. It was the first time they've taken him far back off the pace after his unsuccessful attempts at being a speed horse. He has the mind and the raw talent to be any kind. Wynn had him at 85-1 and the Holy Bull could make those odds look like the bargain of the year.
If Mr Speaker can handle dirt (and he sure is bred for it) in the Holy Bull the way he's handled grass, the sky's the limit for this regally bred colt by Pulpit, out of Salute, who has shown the kind of acceleration and willingness to go through tight spots you want to see in a young horse. The ideal scenario in the Holy Bull is for both him and Conquest Titan colts to move forward and establish themselves as legitimate Derby contenders. Shug McGaughey also has Honor Code, who is the most magnificent physical specimen we've seen so far from this group, but don't forget about Top Billing, who has a bright future, as well.
If we're bold enough to put Wicked Strong ahead of Shared Belief, Honor Code, Havana, and the other top Derby horses, we could have a live 50-1 shot (at Wynn) at the top of the list. Everything about his maiden score and his third in the Remsen, in which he closed into blazing final fractions and was just getting in gear in the final 70 yards, indicates this is major talent who is only going to get better. He still has learning to do, as he shied from the whip on three occasions in the stretch, but is in the capable hands of Jimmy Jerkens.
If Gold Hawk can come close to duplicating his first two races in his stakes debut in the LeComte Stakes, in which he looked brilliant and displayed a beautiful way of going, Steve Asmussen could actually have a better shot at the Derby than he did with the very lightly raced Curlin. For all the RF (Rasmussen Factor) followers (me being one), this colt is inbred to the Tartan Stable mare Grand Splendor through her daughters Killaloe, dam of Fappiano, and Gonfalon, dam of Ogygian.
If Mexikoma continues to work steadily at Palm Meadows, he should return with a vengeance following a less-than-ideal trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and should stamp himself as a leading Derby contender right off the bat. That maiden romp at Delaware Park was just too good a race from a visual standpoint.
If Shared Belief handles the dirt and stays sound (no more minor setbacks), he looks like The Big Hoss; it's as simple as that. No one has come close to duplicating what he accomplished last year and how good he looked doing it. He's just a flat-out talented horse with a killer turn of foot. But all his starts have been on a synthetic surface. From the side, you have to love the way he drops his shoulder and covers ground down the stretch. But the only nagging little thing is his stride from a head-on view. He has a tendency to angle his body in and doesn't get his legs under him the way you'd like to see, especially the way he paddles his left front leg. This won't affect his performance and could mean absolutely nothing in the long run, and his connections are unconcerned.
If Havana looks like anything like a Derby horse in his return and gives any indication he wants to go a distance of ground, he's as brilliant as any of them, and his credentials of winning the Champagne and finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile were as impressive as any 2-year-old. Remember, his sire, Dunkirk, ran huge to finish second in the Belmont Stakes and his broodmare sire, Kyle's Our Man, is from a stout Darby Dan family.
If Bob Baffert can keep his army intact this year, he should hold a powerful hand, even with the loss of New Year's Day. Midnight Hawk still has improving to do, but his Sham score was a big step forward, as he did most of it on his own.
So, consider this just a teaser as the first Derby Dozen approaches.
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/01/13/new-king-of-the-derby-trail.aspx#ixzz2qgnE6uEN
Let's add Roger Rocket to my very short list.
He debuted for Baffert today and was very impressive to me. Pressed the lead, fell back, re-rallied and then fought nose to nose with another horse for the win ... all in his debut ...
Pretty damn professional for a 1st timer and he's a pretty darn impressive looking fella too.
Nice time also!
So my Derby list is now ...
Shared Belief
Indianapolis
Rocket Rocket
Havana
Oh well ... hopefully some others will catch my eye between now and Derby Day ... But I REALLY like the 4 that have thus far. :rhrse:
Didn't see the race, but I read the chart ... it appears that after his small hiatus from the track, my boy Indianapolis romped today!
Can't wait to see the replay!
Quote from: Dance With Gable on January 20, 2014, 03:01:02 PM
Didn't see the race, but I read the chart ... it appears that after his small hiatus from the track, my boy Indianapolis romped today!
Can't wait to see the replay!
Very impressive I thought the 3 would collar him after the turn, and all he got was dust
Hmmmm....
Havana
Indianapolis
Midnight Hawk.
Bear in mind that my previous picks were Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Super Ninety Nine.
Quote from: Delamont on January 21, 2014, 04:02:12 PM
Hmmmm....
Havana
Indianapolis
Midnight Hawk.
Bear in mind that my previous picks were Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Super Ninety Nine.
No Shared Belief?
Indianapolis will be joining my next list as more than an honorable mention.
I am waiting to see what happens in the Holy Bull this weekend.
Midnight Hawk had a nice win in the Sham, but I would like to see him against better competition.
Another horse on my list - We Miss Artie had his first start in 2013 and game in second in the Kitten's Joy. I wonder if he'll try the Palm Beach next and then head to Keeneland for the Bluegrass Stakes.
I also have to consider the addition of Vicar's In Trouble - winner of the Lecomte...Into Mischief - the son of Harlan's Holiday is making his presence felt in 2012 with Shanghai Bobby, in 2013 with Goldencents and Vyjack and now with VIT in 2014...
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/25-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes or Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
A nice performance in the Holy Bull making his sire proud with a BSF that improved significantly from his prior performance in the Remsen Stakes. He stays on top for me. It will be great to see his reacquaintance with Honor Code whether it be in the FOY or FD. Personally, I hope its the FOY because I would like to see him in person.
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
Disappointing he missed his work. I hope he can make the Derby because he's a beautiful horse that runs effortlessly and one of the best of this generation, but more importantly I want him to be fit. I know he has some of the best connections in that area so I am confident they will do what is best for him. Hope to see him out East sometime this year.
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?
Since his win the G1 Del Mar Futurity he just has not been able to find the winner's circle. He was beaten by a sharp horse in California Chrome. I wonder if they may take him back a notch to 7 furlongs for this race.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 2/30-1
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/N-A
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds?
9. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1
Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds
10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes Santa Anita Park?
Congrats for his stakes win. We know he can run fast. This is an interesting place for a potential Kentucky Derby entry, but who am I to second guess one of the best Derby prep trainers around in Mr. Baffert.
11. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park
A disappointing effort in the Holy Bull with a 7th place finish. It seemed he was right with Cairo Prince until just passed the top of the stretch where he started fading. Was it the dirt? It can't be the distance since he broke his maiden at this distance. I think the Palm Beach is a good spot for him. He can take the same route to the Derby that Rydyluc tried last year winning the Palm Beach and then trying the Blue Grass Stakes if its meant to be.
12. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1
Next race: Unknown.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1
Next race: G3 Palm Beach Stakes?
He was a second place finisher in the Kitten's Joy Stakes. We'll see if he just needed a race under his belt. Perhaps he just needs to get back to Keeneland.
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1
Next race: Unknown.
Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/N-A
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds
Like his breeding. A great grandson of Wild Again. He also has already done better with the Lecomte Stakes win than Into Mischief's famous two year old son Shanghai Bobby ever did as a three year old.
Steve Haskin has posted his Derby Dozen - I believe much earlier than he had last year...
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/01/28/derby-dozen-january-28-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
They are:
1. Cairo Prince
2. Top Billing
3. Shared Belief
4. Honor Code
5. Conquest Titan
6. Strong Mandate
7. Mexikoma
8. Midnight Hawk
9. Vicar's In Trouble
10. Candy Boy
11. Intense Holiday
12. Commissioner
Interestingly absent from the list is Havana, but a number of folks do not believe that he can get the 10 furlong distance.
I was glad to see that he did have 4 of the same horses that I did including my top three being in his top 4.
It will be fun to see how it shakes out.
Not only Havana ... But also no Indianapolis ...
The omission of the above two makes his list very questionable ...
Heck ... He's even got Midnight Hawk listed, but not them ... Indianapolis would trounce Midnight Hawk if they faced each other ... IMO.
Quote from: The Tin Man on January 29, 2014, 08:24:20 AM
Not only Havana ... But also no Indianapolis ...
The omission of the above two makes his list very questionable ...
Heck ... He's even got Midnight Hawk listed, but not them ... Indianapolis would trounce Midnight Hawk if they faced each other ... IMO.
Havana seems to get late but he probably should be at least in the top dozen. In Indianapolis' case, he's shown potential but he has to go long before people get too crazy about him. If Indianapolis wins just as easy around two turns, he'll make the list with a bullet, I have no doubts.
Sounds like Havana missed some training. First start will be 7f Hutcheseon
Honor Code has had a minor setback, Shug lost about 10 days with him- but thinks that it will not be that bad- goal is now the Gotham.
Quote from: Senator L on January 29, 2014, 08:48:42 PM
Sounds like Havana missed some training. First start will be 7f Hutcheseon
I think you mean the Swale...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83096/havana-likely-to-start-2014-season-in-swale
Quote from: serenassong on January 30, 2014, 04:38:12 AM
Honor Code has had a minor setback, Shug lost about 10 days with him- but thinks that it will not be that bad- goal is now the Gotham.
Well, so much for my thinking the Fountain of Youth could have a top quality set of starters.
With my luck Cairo Prince will wait for the Florida Derby leaving the untried Commissioner and Top Billing as the top rated entries...
C'est la vie.
Hopefully the weather will be nice.
Jan. 23, 2014
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN" FOR 2014
Even though it is still January, the "Dirty Dozen" is always on top of the action. Last year, the initial list had the eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Golden Soul in the top spot, while the final list had the Kentucky Derby winner Orb as the second choice behind Verrazano.
Furthermore, the top five horses in the final 2012 "Dirty Dozen" were I'll Have Another (first), Bodemeister (second), Union Rags (seventh), Dullahan (third) and Creative Cause (fifth).
This year sports a very deep class of 3-year-olds. Considering this is the first article of the new campaign, here are 10 more horses (listed in alphabetical order) to keep an eye on over the next three months: Baratti, Candy Boy, Commanding Curve, Commissioner, Hartford, In Trouble, Noble Moon, Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Unknown Road and Vicar's in Trouble.
1) Shared Belief - Eclipse Award winner could be special
2) Honor Code - Needs to improve gate speed over the winter
3) Coup de Grace - Puts undefeated record on line Saturday
4) Cairo Prince - Only a nose prevents an unbeaten record
5) Mr Speaker - Breeding suggests he should like dirt
6) Midnight Hawk - Still very green after two starts
7) Top Billing - Runs Saturday against Surfing U S A
8) Bayern - Impressive debut, but it came as a 3-year-old
9) Havana - Hasn't worked since running second in BC Juvenile
10) Strong Mandate - Must overcome inconsistency this year
11) Bourbonize - Looked good winning second start at Oaklawn
12) Our Caravan - Will see what he is made of in Holy Bull
Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/01/23/3048600/hollendorfer-believes-in-shared.html#storylink=cpy
In a way, I like that none of these "experts" are touting Indianapolis ... and yes ... I understand the ol' "he has to prove he can get the distance" angle ...
But I'm pretty darn confident he will ... Anyone know when the 1st round of Kentucky Derby future bets happen? Being that he's still being overlooked, it seems I would still be able to get nice odds on him ... I want to plunk a few bucks down before people start taking him seriously! :chickendance:
Quote from: The Tin Man on January 31, 2014, 08:16:10 AM
In a way, I like that none of these "experts" are touting Indianapolis ... and yes ... I understand the ol' "he has to prove he can get the distance" angle ...
But I'm pretty darn confident he will ... Anyone know when the 1st round of Kentucky Derby future bets happen? Being that he's still being overlooked, it seems I would still be able to get nice odds on him ... I want to plunk a few bucks down before people start taking him seriously! :chickendance:
You definitely should! I had the good fortune--luck is all you can call it--to pick Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand and Silver Charm as my Derby horses when they were two. Ferdinand was especially tricky because Whittingham was very vocal about not ever going to the Derby unless he thought they'd give him a five length head start. I've never felt about any others the way I did about them with any conviction. If I ever do I'll let you know--just as their turning for home at Churchill. ;)
I think you mean the Swale...
my bad, thanks.
Next week is derby futures again, I think I'll put some on Havana just in
case he drifts to 30 - 1
Good luck
No change to mine. Still want to see if Samraat can compete with the big boys. Same with Vinceremos.
Other derby dozens:
Paul Mazur
2/1/14
http://www.chicagonow.com/picks-ponderings-chicago-horse-racing/2014/02/2014-derby-dozen-1/
1. HONOR CODE
2. SHARED BELIEF
3. TOP BILLING
4. A STEP AHEAD
5. CAIRO PRINCE
6. NOBLE MOON
7. MIDNIGHT HAWK
8. ALMOST FAMOUS
9. TANZANITE CAT
10. SAMRAAT
11. VINCEREMOS
12. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE
The Track Philosopher
1/30/14
http://www.thetrackphilosopher.com/derby-dozen-2014/
1) Honor Code 4-1
2) Shared Belief 5-1
3) Cairo Prince 6-1
4) Tap It Rich 8-1
5) Mexikoma 8-1
6) Tapiture 10-1
7) Commissioner 10-1
8) Strong Mandate 12-1
9) Havana 12-1
↑ 10) Vicar's in Trouble 12-1
↓ 11) Top Billing 14-1
12) Coup de Grace 18-1
I hope to see more from TRF folks soon.
No changes in order.
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/12-1(25-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes or Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park?
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/15-1(10-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/18-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(35-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 2/30-1(30-1)
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds
9. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1(28-1)
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1(35-1)
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park?
11. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1(150-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park
12. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1(25-1)
Next race: Unknown.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1(100-1)
Next race: G3 Palm Beach Stakes?
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1(125-1)
Next race: Unknown.
Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds
Re: The next KD Futures this week/end ...
While I'm bummed that Indianapolis will be starting off at 20-1(Lower than I thought) ... I, of course, am going to be plunking down a few bucks on him
And California Chrome, opening at 50-1, will take some coin from me too! He was UBER-impressive last time out ... plus his owner took a liking to my girlfriend pre-race, so we got to do the winner's circle after the race. That was fun!
Any word on where Tamarando might go next? He's still at 50-1.
Candy Boy flattered Shared Belief with his win in the Lewis.
Glad to read SB is back in training.
Are the best Derby prospects in CA right now?
I don't know...
It certainly seems like the fastest ones are looking at Indianapolis, Candy Boy, and now with Shared Belief back in training.
I'll put up my next list after the Fountain of Youth.
Quote from: The Tin Man on February 04, 2014, 05:38:03 PM
Re: The next KD Futures this week/end ...
While I'm bummed that Indianapolis will be starting off at 20-1(Lower than I thought) ... I, of course, am going to be plunking down a few bucks on him
And California Chrome, opening at 50-1, will take some coin from me too! He was UBER-impressive last time out ... plus his owner took a liking to my girlfriend pre-race, so we got to do the winner's circle after the race. That was fun!
SO cool - and I am seeing Shared Belief is looking good and back to training!
Quote from: Man o Taz on February 06, 2014, 12:33:09 PM
Any word on where Tamarando might go next? He's still at 50-1.
Found him - El Camino Real Derby - Saturday at Golden Gate Park...and he looks like the class of the field.
I'm still waiting for a couple to start Havana and Rise Up and Rankhasprivileges.
Without any good contests and horses having 1 or 2 starts before the derby
its hard to get to excited just yet. (for me this year anyway)
But a horse will jump out soon enough, happens every year :chickendance:
What the heck ... My current Cali Derby Trail Top 5 ... in order ...
Shared Belief
Indianapolis
California Chrome
Candy Boy
Bayern
Tamarando did well as did my Tapiture and Strong Mandate as well.
Where is Indianapolis pointed next? The San Felipe? The Rebel?
IndyStar.com did a write up on the colt today, and mentioned the San Felipe or the Rebel Stakes as possible for stretching him out.
Thanks.
I wonder if Tamarando is pointed to the Louisiana Derby now...since Shared Belief will likely head to the Santa Anita Derby. I thought his connections were looking to so that at the beginning of the year.
Horse Racing Nation has him pointed to the G3 Spiral Stakes - I guess keeping him on synthetic.
If he is coming that far East, I'd prefer to see him in the Bluegrass Stakes on polytrack. That's the surface that he won his G1 over.
I said I was going to wait...but thought I'd catch up.
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
5. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds
9. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 50-1(65-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?
11. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/85-1(100-1)
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
Honorable Mentions:
Top Billing (Curlin and Parade Queen by A.P. Indy) 0/14-1 (n/a)
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
Bayern (Offlee Wild and Alittlebitearly by Thunder Gulch) 0/40-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park seems too close so Mar. 15 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park?
Dropped
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1(125-1)
No sign of him anywhere so I am dropping him for now.
Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1(150-1)
I still like this horse, but I dropped him since I do not know if he'll stay on turf or possibly try the Bluegrass Stakes. If this happens, he'll rejoin my list.
Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1(25-1)
Dropped because of his inconsistency. Perhaps he will be ready for summer racing. He was second to Bayern, but 15 lengths second?
Quote from: Man o Taz on February 19, 2014, 06:58:26 AM
I said I was going to wait...but thought I'd catch up.
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
5. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds
9. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 50-1(65-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
11. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/85-1(100-1)
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
Honorable Mentions:
Top Billing (Curlin Parade by A.P. Indy) 0/14-1
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1(125-1)
No sign of him anywhere so I am dropping him for now.
Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1(150-1)
I still like this horse, but I dropped him since I do not know if he'll stay on turf or possibly try the Bluegrass Stakes. If this happens, he'll rejoin my list.
Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1(25-1)
Dropped because of his inconsistency. Perhaps he will be ready for summer racing.
Hmmmm ... No Bayern eh Taz? :)
What do you read my mind, or something? (SMILE)
I am a huge Bayern Munich fan - and I actually was just reading a couple of articles on him...and thought I need to add him to my Honorable Mention list.
I love his breeding...especially on top with BC Classic winner Wild Again - one of my favorite horses I ever have had the pleasure to meet...
But he did only win at a mile...while I have commissioner on my list he has two wins at 9 furlongs...though they are not stakes wins...the filed he beat in the last one had some quality.
I have always been a Tap It Rich fan...so seeing him finish second was rewarding...but I still had to drop him...hopefully only temporarily... from my list.
Bond Holder is out of the Risen Star.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/injury-forces-bond-holder-to-miss-risen-star/
"He got banged up quite badly on his flight to the New Orleans," owner J. Paul Reddam told Haskins. "We hoped it would be superficial and he would be fine for Saturday, but it is worse than we thought so we are going to have to scratch him."
This situation serves as a reminder that shipping high-strung colts around the country is not as easy as load-fly-unload. Every time a racehorse (or jumper, reining or dressage horse) walks up the ramp onto a plane, there is a very real possibility that something bad could happen...thousands of feet in the air and with few options to handle a frantic 1000-1200 lb. animal.
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on February 19, 2014, 12:56:06 PM
Bond Holder is out of the Risen Star.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/injury-forces-bond-holder-to-miss-risen-star/
He got banged up quite badly on his flight to the New Orleans, owner J. Paul Reddam told Haskins. We hoped it would be superficial and he would be fine for Saturday, but it is worse than we thought so we are going to have to scratch him.
This situation serves as a reminder that shipping high-strung colts around the country is not as easy as load-fly-unload. Every time a racehorse (or jumper, reining or dressage horse) walks up the ramp onto a plane, there is a very real possibility that something bad could happen...thousands of feet in the air and with few options to handle a frantic 1000-1200 lb. animal.
If he got banged up that badly, I am surprised they are planning to coax him onto another airplane for the return trip.
Too bad for BH.
Quote from: Catalina on February 19, 2014, 08:42:31 PM
If he got banged up that badly, I am surprised they are planning to coax him onto another airplane for the return trip.
Well, apparently they tried ... unsuccessfully. Someone posted on TBC that O'Neill Racing wrote on its Facebook page BH had been put on a plane to go back to SoCal ... and then this post showed up later on the same page.
- "Bond Holder was not happy flying and was routed to Florida. Luckily, we had nominated him to the Tampa Bay Derby and so we will keep him in Florida to run there on March 8. Audible called, but that is horse racing!"
"Not happy flying?" If they had to reroute a large commercial transport in midair, I'm thinking "not happy" is a bit of an understatement. How about, "pitched a fit and tried to kick his way out of his airbox?" Or, "keeping him from killing himself (and everyone else on the plane) was going to take such a large dose of tranquillizers that he was going to flunk drug tests for the next year?"
:o
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on February 24, 2014, 03:58:35 PM
"Not happy flying?" If they had to reroute a large commercial transport in midair, I'm thinking "not happy" is a bit of an understatement. How about, "pitched a fit and tried to kick his way out of his airbox?" Or, "keeping him from killing himself (and everyone else on the plane) was going to take such a large dose of tranquillizers that he was going to flunk drug tests for the next year?"
:o
All of those sound like they might fit. ::)
I still like Top Billing despite his loss last Saturday... I'm a little disappointed that Shug has opted to keep him at that speed biased-track for the FL Derby though. Was hoping he'd ship for the Wood. With his running style I think he'd do much better there. And he needs points badly.
Is Shared Belief still actually pointing for the Derby?? He hasn't run since mid-December and hasn't posted an official work since January 3rd. I love him for races later in the year, provided Dorf gets him back on track (literally), but no thanks for the roses...
Quote from: peeptoad on February 25, 2014, 04:22:22 AM
I still like Top Billing despite his loss last Saturday... I'm a little disappointed that Shug has opted to keep him at that speed biased-track for the FL Derby though. Was hoping he'd ship for the Wood. With his running style I think he'd do much better there. And he needs points badly.
Is Shared Belief still actually pointing for the Derby?? He hasn't run since mid-December and hasn't posted an official work since January 3rd. I love him for races later in the year, provided Dorf gets him back on track (literally), but no thanks for the roses...
I've heard through the track grapevine that the next work you'll see from Shared Belief will be from Golden Gate. Word is that he'll be working up there because the synthetic is easier on his feet.
I hope that doesn't mean he's done running down here and that its just a short term 'recovery" thing instead.
The above is from people who traditionally know people who know. It is not directly from the connections. I've not asked them.
My guess is this info is correct. Guess we'll know for sure, if SB's next work is at Golden Gate.
Shared Belief has moved to Golden Gate. I read that info on a couple of the racing sites...Hollendorfer was quoted as saying that the surface was better for the horse at this time.
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park?
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park?
Has he had a work yet - the race is two weeks away? Maybe Mr. Hollendorfer will send two to the Spiral Stakes?
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
5. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
6. Top Billing (Curlin and Parade Queen by A.P. Indy)10/12-1 (14-1)
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park
7. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
8. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park
9. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
Can he win on a track other than Gulfstream Park's dirt track? I like that he has six races under his belt - three already this year with a fourth prep before the Derby coming in the Florida Derby.
10. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs
11. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
I was tempted to remove him because I thought this schedule to prepare him for the Kentucky Derby looked a lot like running Uncle Mo in the Kelso as a prep for the Breeders Cup Classic, but we'll see. Hopefully he impresses.
12. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 50-1(65-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?
Honorable Mentions:
Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/18-1(20-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds
Disappointed by his performance in the Risen Star he is listed again as an Honorable Mention. I still think he may be better than Intense Holiday, but we'll see.
Bayern (Offlee Wild and Alittlebitearly by Thunder Gulch) 0/40-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park seems too close so Mar. 15 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park?
Can he break Apollo's curse of not running at 2 and winning the Derby? I don't know. He seems a lot like Bodemeister in that he'll come up just short, but I still have him on my list. Let's see if he can stretch out.
Dropped
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/85-1(100-1)
Next race:
He still may reach the Derby if he wins the Bluegrass Stakes, but we'll have to see.
Here are some other Derby Rankings at this stage:
ESPN Power 10
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10516787/power-rankings-2014-top-10-kentucky-derby-contenders-week-2
February 24, 2014
1. Cairo Prince
2. Honor Code
3. Candy Boy
4. Tapiture
5. Top Billing
6. Strong Mandate
7. Intense Holiday
8. Shared Belief
9. Bayern
10. Wildcat Red
I don't know if its good or bad I had 7 out of their top 10 in my top12.
Steve Haskin
February 24, 2014
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/02/24/derby-dozen-february-24-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. Top Billing
2. Cairo Prince
3. Honor Code
4. Candy Boy
5. Bayern
6. Intense Holiday
7. Tapiture
8. Conquest Titan
9. Mexikoma
10. California Chrome
11. General a Rod
12. Constitution
And I have 5 of Haskin's top 12 in mine.
I had not seen this one before...
Lexington Herald-Leader
February 8, 2014
Bobby's Kitten
Bond Holder
Cairo Prince
Candy Boy
Commissioner
Conquest Titan
Honor Code
Samraat
Strong Mandate
Top Billing
Vicar's In Trouble
Vinceremos
Chicago Now
Paul Mazur
February 24, 2014
http://www.chicagonow.com/picks-ponderings-chicago-horse-racing/2014/02/2014-derby-dozen-2/
1. Top Billing
2. Honor Code
3. Shared Belief
4. Strong Mandate
5. Cairo Prince
6. Intense Holiday
7. Candy Boy
8. Tamarando
9. A Step Ahead
10. Conquest Titan
11. General a Rod
12. Wildcat Red
7 of 12 of this one too. Everyone could probably do that with their lists.
Does anyone else here want to venture a full dozen? (SMILE)
Quote from: Man o Taz on February 27, 2014, 09:19:00 AM
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
11. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
I was tempted to remove him because I thought this schedule to prepare him for the Kentucky Derby looked a lot like running Uncle Mo in the Kelso as a prep for the Breeders Cup Classic, but we'll see. Hopefully he impresses.
Per Paulick Report, Havana was scratched out of Swale due to quarter crack.
Which will probably remove him from my Derby Dozen.
That's shame.
The latest in a string of runner's from New Years Day, etc. that will probably not make the Derby. Mr. Pletcher indicated that he was behind anyway - and now to miss a race that did not even provide points for the Derby is disappointing.
How about Spot's win over No Nay Never? Looks like Mr. Zito might have a nice three year old competitor. We'll see if he can stretch out. Being from Pulpit its possible he could stretch out with Secretariat on the top and bottom.
Nice to see Zito win. He's been running thin the last couple years
Yes. Has he won a three year old graded stakes since Dialed In's Florida Derby?
Its only three years, but when you look at what his partners in the Thoroughbred Legends Racing Partnership have done recently...
Lukas won the Rebel with Will Take Charge last year and the Preakness, Travers, Clark and so on...
Baffert always has a couple of stakes winners...
Etc.
Mr. Zito has always been one of my favorites. Love the name.
The track philosopher...
fEBRUARY 28, 2014
http://www.thetrackphilosopher.com/derby-dozen-2014/
1) Cairo Prince 4-1
2) Honor Code 5-1
3) Top Billing 6-1
4) Shared Belief 8-1
↑ 5) Intense Holiday 8-1
↓ 6) Tapiture 10-1
7) Vicar's in Trouble 10-1
↓ 8) Candy Boy 12-1
↑ 9) Strong Mandate 12-1
↓ 10) Tamarando 12-1
↑ 11) Constitution 14-1
12) Havana 20-1
March 3, 2014
BY JERRY BOSSERT
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Candy Boy
Tapiture
Cairo Prince
Intense Holiday
Strong Mandate
Samraat
Uncle Sigh
Wildcat Red
General a Rod
Top Billing
Albano
Chitu
Bayern
Honor Code
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/kentucky-derby-rankings-ny-state-mind-article-1.1709017#ixzz2uvEVUbcj
Well, we're starting to get a lot closer.
The one from last year I was counting on was Havana. But I doubt he'll make the
starting gate. There are a couple others that I really like
1) Candy Boy : This horse looks like he wants to run all day
2) Wildcat Red: I know his pedigree says sprinter, but if he keeps
winning why not keep betting him?
3) The top (3) from the Gotham. This bunch is fun to watch :puppykisses:
4) General A Rod: If I like Wildcat Red I gotta like this guy
5) Gala Award, that was a nice win on the turf, great pedigree too.
Should dirt easy
This from the Santa Anita Stable Notes yesterday morning ... March 2nd ...
In regards to Shared Belief ...
[attachment deleted by admin]
Good that he's doing well at GG, but he is officially off my Derby radar... if he manages to make the race I will be astounded.
I think the Preakness or even the Laz Barrera are way more likely at this point. I still think he is the most talented horse in the crop though.
Quote from: peeptoad on March 04, 2014, 04:10:34 AM
Good that he's doing well at GG, but he is officially off my Derby radar... if he manages to make the race I will be astounded.
I think the Preakness or even the Laz Barrera are way more likely at this point. I still think he is the most talented horse in the crop though.
I agree with you wholeheartedly ... Sucks to take your #1 off of the radar though ... He was mine too ...
And it looks like my # 2, Indianapolis, is highly unlikely to make it either. Seems they weren't even contemplating it I guess. I've never heard them mention it as a goal. Maybe they're just thinking he's a pure sprinter?
Oh well ... I'll be just as happy seeing them dominate NON-Kentucky Derby races ... Just want them to be safe and shine!
Guess that makes Bayern my top dog now ... If neither SB or Indy go.
Quote from: Senator L on March 03, 2014, 03:29:45 PM
Well, we're starting to get a lot closer.
The one from last year I was counting on was Havana. But I doubt he'll make the
starting gate. There are a couple others that I really like
1) Candy Boy : This horse looks like he wants to run all day
2) Wildcat Red: I know his pedigree says sprinter, but if he keeps
winning why not keep betting him?
3) The top (3) from the Gotham. This bunch is fun to watch :puppykisses:
4) General A Rod: If I like Wildcat Red I gotta like this guy
5) Gala Award, that was a nice win on the turf, great pedigree too.
Should dirt easy
I'm going to have to add Candy Boy for Havana when I release my latest list next week.
And depending what happens this weekend with Shared Belief I may be dropping him from the list as well despite how much I like this colt.
I may have to add Samraat. He is undefeated and finds a way to win. We'll see.
And Spot is likely to make my honorable mention list.
Gary Roedemeier Top 20 March Derby List
http://www.whas11.com/sports/derby-horse-racing/Roedemeier-March-Derby-top-20-list-248295951.html
1. Candy Boy
2. Samraat
3. Tapiture
4. Top Billing
5. General A Rod
6. Strong Mandate
7. Intense Holiday
8. Albano
9. Honor Code
10. Uncle Sigh
11. Cairo Prince
12. In Trouble
13. Wildcat Red
14. Conquest Titan
15. Kristo
16. Chitu
17. Solitary Ranger
18. Ride on Curlin
19. Tamarando
20. Kobe's Back
Roedemeier suggests that its strange that so many people would be on Cairo Prince's band wagon when he has a dosage index of 7.00. It will be interesting to see if he is successful in the Derby based upon this since only Strike the Gold has had a DI above 6.
i didn't know Cairo prince had such a high dosage#. i did notice
wildcat reds was high, but he looks like he'll keep going imo
i'll be betting against Cairo in the Fl Derby
sometimes these numbers aren't exact sciences - as you mentioned Strike the Gold
In my humble opinion Samraat is NOT a KY Derby Horse. If the connections thought he was that good he wouldn't have spent the Winter in NY.
He's beating up tomato cans. But I do hope many people get "fooled" into betting him.
Cairo Prince hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential. He WILL win the Derby as long as he's makes the starting gate.
All this dosage and other BS, means zip. The horse has what it takes to win and that's heart...
But then again what do I know????
Cigarshop
Cairo's been my number one Derby horse since he finished a close second to Honor Code carrying six pounds more than HC did.
I don't know much about the DI, but I did find it an interesting statistic to watch as he stretches out to see how much of a factor it actually plays.
Secretariat - the gold standard had a DI of 3.0 I believe.
Strike The Gold was 9.0. And there are a couple around 5.0, but most are lower since 1940.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm
And now with poor Indianapolis being sick he'll likely be removed from my list as well.
The 9f preps will help separate the contenders form the pretenders imo...
Quote from: Man o Taz on March 05, 2014, 07:23:52 AM
And now with poor Indianapolis being sick he'll likely be removed from my list as well.
Great ... Now that means my top 2 are both off of the trail ... :(
Oh well ... Now, to me, no matter who wins the Derby ... It won't be the best 3 year old running this year.
Guess Bayern is the last SoCal hope now.
There is still Candy Boy and California Chrome and Tamarando, right?
Two are currently on my list and I'll be adding Candy Boy after this weekend.
My, m, my.
So much change. Bayern not in the San Felipe. Top Billing out with injury. Honor Code skipping the Rebel for an allowance race... Bond Holder sidelined. Shared Belief - still no work - I'm thinkin the Bluegrass Stakes since he likes synthetic is his only shot at the Derby. And Mr. Hollendorfer seems like he is unlikely to press his horses. I will leave him on the list a bit longer because of his talent, but I need to see a work soon for him to stay there.
5 new horses in the mix...and I expect to drop Shared Belief next week after he does not work.
KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 12 Allowance Race as Gulfstream Park
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Apr. 15 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?
4. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Apr. 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
5. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
6. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
7. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie)
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct
8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
9. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
10. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
11. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
12. TIE Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?
Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance)
Next race: Apr. 5 Calder Derby at Calder Park or Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course
Honorable Mention
Spot (Pulpit and Quiet Summernight by Quiet American)
Next race: Unknown
He has Secretariat on top and bottom through A.P. Indy, but where does he go next?
The Rebel Stakes I think would have been a nice spot for him - but running him off two weeks rest might be too much.
Perhaps the Lexington Stakes...at 8.5 furlongs. Its still worth 10 points and the way that horses are dropping out 10 may get you in this year as last year.
Can Mr. Zito find an 8 furlong O/C or Allowance race next week and then look to run him in the Bluegrass Stakes or the Arkansas Derby?
RacingDudes.com Derby Top 20 March 5
http://racingdudes.com/2014/03/06/top-20-kentucky-derby-prospects-4-2/
1. Top Billing
2. Cairo Prince
3. Tapiture
4. Strong Mandate
5. Candy Boy
6. Samraat
7. Shared Belief
8. Honor Code
9. Intense Holiday
10. Constitution
11. Bayern
12. Uncle Sigh
13. Bobby's Kitten
14. Wildcat Red
15. General a Rod
16. Commissioner
17. Midnight Hawk
18. Albano
19. In Trouble
20. Tamarando
As we get closer to the Derby - everyone's lists are probably going to look more similar.
ESPN Kentucky Derby Power Rankings - March 4th
http://espn.go.com/espn/print?id=10551505&type=story
1. Cairo Prince
2. Honor Code
3. Candy Boy
4. Tapiture
5. Top Billing
6. Intense Holiday
7. Strong Mandate
8. Samraat
9. Bayern
10. Shared Belief
I have 9 out of Steve's top 12...I was surprised to see him add Tamarando. I've had him since my first list because I really like his always showing up. At some point, he is going to either step up and win the big one or fall back and finish at the back of the pack...and I am betting on the former.
I think In Trouble is a horse I have been overlooking. He could move far up in the Wood.
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen March 10th
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/10/derby-dozen-march-10-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. California Chrome
2. Cairo Prince
3. Honor Code
4. Candy Boy
5. Intense Holiday
6. Tapiture
7. Samraat
8. General a Rod
9. Uncle Sigh
10. Kobe's Back
11. Tamarando
12. Strong Mandate
Well, we know what Steve Haskin is going to do - the same thing I am - add Hopperunity to my list.
He looked great in the Rebel.
We'll see how he stretches out, but he seemed to want at least 9 furlongs. Haskin's hype was correct. He said all along that this horse was his top horse in Mr. Baffert's barn.
Quote from: Man o Taz on March 18, 2014, 08:43:06 AM
Well, we know what Steve Haskin is going to do - the same thing I am - add Hopperunity to my list.
He looked great in the Rebel.
We'll see how he stretches out, but he seemed to want at least 9 furlongs. Haskin's hype was correct. He said all along that this horse was his top horse in Mr. Baffert's barn.
MY top horse in Baffert's barn is Indianapolis ... Derby trail or not ...
So I've gotta disagree with Haskin. ;)
And Shared Belief is my number one in Mr. Hollendorfer's barn, but we see how that worked out. SMILE
I hope I get to see Indianapolis run out East some time this year. Maybe in the Haskell.
Steve Haskin's March 17 Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/17/derby-dozen-march-17-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. Califorinia Chrome
2. Cairo Prince
3. Hopperunity
4. Candy Boy
5. Intense Holiday
6. Tapiture
7. Honor Code
8. General a Rod
9. Samraat
10. Uncle Sigh
11. Tamarando
12. Ride On Curlin
An interesting list. I am glad that he did not jump on the Social Inclusion bandwagon as some others have. The horse had an impressive breakout performance in an allowance race on a speed favoring track. Noble Causeway had a similar performance at 8 furlongs. He looked special as Mr. McGaughey noted in comments after the race, but it was one performance, and while Honor Code is a top derby aspirant, this was his first race back - he was not fully cranked - and SI had a race under his belt. Let's see how he does in his next race. If he can step up to 9 furlongs and equal or better his performance then, indeed we may have a superstar in the making.
I have 8 horses in agreement with Mr. Haskin adding Hoppertunity and sadly dropping Shared Belief.
Derby point totals follows pedigree...
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park or the April 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Park
3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
4. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
5. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
6. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 60
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct
7. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 53
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
This is a big step - adding a horse to my Derby list that has not raced as a 2 year old, but he has raced 4 times already and grown a lot in his races, so I am willing to take the gamble here, unlike some other horses that have been lightly raced at 3 and point to the Derby. He will only stay on my list if he enters the gate and runs in the Santa Anita Derby since no horse has won the Derby that I am aware of without at least trying a 9 furlong race before the 10 furlong Derby.
8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
9. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 11
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
10. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
11. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park
12. TIE Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 Calder Derby at Calder Park or Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course
Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?
So Tamarando is up for his big test this weekend...I hope he moves forward and takes this one. I do wonder why We Miss Artie is running back in this race rather than the Bluegrass Stakes since he won the Futurity at Keeneland last year. If Tamarando doesn't win I hope Smart Cover, Almost Famous, We Miss Artie and Arctic Slope do well.
Purse $550,000. (Includes $50,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Three-Year-Olds. One And One Eighth Miles. (All Weather Track)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Big Bazinga (KY) 3/G L L Contreras 123 K Vassilieva
2 Asserting Bear (ON) 3/C L J Rocco, Jr. 123 R Baker
3 Poker Player (KY) 3/C L C Hill 123 W M Catalano
4 Tamarando (CA) 3/C L R A Baze 123 J Hollendorfer
5 Coastline (KY) 3/C L S Elliott 123 M E Casse
6 Smart Cover (KY) 3/C L C J Lanerie 123 D L Romans
7 All Tied Up (KY) 3/C L L Saez 123 T A Pletcher
8 Solitary Ranger (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 123 W M Catalano
9 Almost Famous (KY) 3/C L C H Borel 123 P B Byrne
10 Harry's Holiday (KY) 3/C L R Napravnik 123 M J Maker
11 We Miss Artie (ON) 3/C L J R Velazquez 123 T A Pletcher
12 Arctic Slope (KY) 3/C L A Jimenez 123 K G McPeek
Owners: 1 - Derby Dreamers Racing Stable (Robert S. Bates) ; 2 - Bear Stables, Ltd. (Danny Dion) ; 3 - Gary and Mary West ; 4 - Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams ; 5 - John C. Oxley ; 6 - Donegal Racing (Jerry Crawford) ; 7 - Dogwood Stable (W. Cothran Campbell) ; 8 - Susan Moulton ; 9 - Chuck and Maribeth Sandford, LLC (Chuck and Maribeth Sandford) ; 10 - Skychai Racing, LLC (Harvey Diamond), Terry Raymond and Jana Wagner ; 11 - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey ; 12 - Shortleaf Stable, Inc. (John Ed Anthony)
Breeders: 1 - Sheltowee Farm, Alfonso Mazzetti, Dr.Robert J Hunt & Rodney Winkle; 2 - John Carey; 3 - Nicholas M. Lotz, Rosemary K. Lotz &Harlan's Holiday Syndicate; 4 - Mr. & Mrs. Larry D. Williams; 5 - DATTT Farm, LLC; 6 - Keene Ridge Racing, LLC; 7 - Chris Cahill & Kirt Cahill; 8 - Richard Forbush & U S Ranger Syndicate; 9 - Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC; 10 - Brereton C. Jones and B. Ned Jones; 11 - Richard L. Lister; 12 - Shortleaf Stable
You know for whom I'll be pulling Taz! ;)
Asserting Bear is my pick in this!!
Well, a disappointing effort by Tamarando. I don't think he liked the track at all. After showing he could run on just about anything, he finally showed there was a surface he might not like.
Who knows, maybe he'll still get in with his 14 points. It only took ten last year.
Has anyone heard whether he had any other excuses besides appearing to not like the track?
Too bad about Honor Code being off the Derby trail. Hope Mr. Speaker gets a shot in the Bluegrass Stakes.
Hopefully, he will be heeled up for summer racing.
Congrats to We Miss Artie rebounding from his poor showing in the Fountain of Youth. Looks like Mr. Ramsey will be represented by at least one horse in the Derby.
I do not know if he'll return to my next Derby list given that he does well on synthetic and not so well on dirt. Dullahan didn't win on dirt, but he at least got close with a third in the Kentucky Derby.
Sorry to drop Tamarando and Honor Code from the list. Tamarando did not like the track at Turfway and I don't blame him with all the dust being kicked up. Its a shame because I think he might have fared well in the Derby, but he is unlikely to have enough points.
I can tell you who I will not be adding to my list...Constitution. A big, beautiful horse, who I do not think will have the bottom necessary to compete on the first Saturday in May. Unlike Hoppertunity, he has just not been tested.
I will be leaving Cairo Prince. He needed the race. I hope his second effort after a lay-off will be much more impressive. Will he get in with 24 points? I think so. He has the tiebreaker with $520,000 right now - and unless some horses further back jump ahead of him he should be fine since some of the top 20 may not make the gate.
I have Toast of New York, the impressive G2 UAE Derby winner who looked good winning at 9.5 furlongs in Dubai this weekend. I think its a matter of time before a UAE Derby winner wins the Kentucky Derby. No other horse in the field will have won at longer than TONY...
It looks like Mr. Speaker may be entering the Bluegrass Stakes after all. I still believe in this horse. Very sorry I will not be there to see it in person.
Derby point totals follow pedigree...
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 24
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
3. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 60
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct
5. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
6. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 53
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park or Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
7. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10
Next race: April 5 G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
8. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 11
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
9. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
10. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
11. Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 Calder Derby at Calder Park or Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course
12. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course
On The Bubble: Toast of New York (Thewayyourare by Kingmambo and Calire Soleil by Syncline by Danzig) 100
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs?
I am not sure how I feel about General a Rod coming out of the FL Derby. I quite liked him (though not my top prospect) prior to that race, but I really expected a better effort from him. Not sure if he is better around two turns, or regressed off the FOY effort. The connections seem happy enough with him, but he drops down for me...
With the four big preps still to come these are the main horses I am watching (in no real ranking order):
Hoppertunity- probably my top horse (tepidly) if he continues to improve. He runs 1-2-3 in the SA Derby and I think that sets him up nicely.
Samraat- I think this guy is way underrated. He's not flashy, but he gets the job done every time and has a nice pedigree as the distances increase.
California Chrome- on the flip side this guy might be a tad overrated, but there is no denying that last race. I'm concerned he may have peaked too soon with the huge effort in San Felipe; his previous top was ~15-20 pts lower. Hopefully he can hold his form for another 4-5 weeks.
Commanding Curve- he was the only horse making up any ground in the LA Derby and he did it after a terrible start in which he got wiped out and wound up about 2-3 lengths behind the rest of the field. If he avoid trouble (which he seems to find) and he manages to make the gate (short on points), then I love him at boxcar odds.
Ring Weekend- really has a lot to prove, but I like him and think it's interesting that he's taking a wildly unconventional route to the Derby.
General a Rod- previously mentioned. Maybe he'll take to the CD strip (I think he has a win there), and he could jump forward once out of FL (sheer speculation on my part)
Vicar's in Trouble- nice, horse, but Rosie is not going to be able to do in KY what she did in LA. He must rate with all the other speed signed on, and his closing fractions were not the best, even after an ideal trip.
Tapiture- hard to get past the trainer now, but still a solid horse. I'm skeptical he can go the distance though since all 3 full siblings have been sprinter-milers.
Horses I would rank lower (though any horse has a shot once they make the gate): Cairo Prince, Wildcat Red, Constitution. The former two probably do not want any more ground and the latter is woefully behind in seasoning/foundation.
...and I am sure Pletcher will find some other horse (Commissioner maybe?) to load into the gate. ::)
I forgot Social Inclusion... this year seems VERY wide open, mainly because a lot of the top horses have gotten knocked out for physical problems. SI is on my watch list. Need to see what he's got in the Wood before I can pass any sort of real judgement. My opinion of Honor Code prior to that allowance was lower than a lot of others', so the jury is still out on SI.
IMO of course...
Peeptoad - what do you think about Mr. Speaker?
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 01, 2014, 05:54:13 AM
Peeptoad - what do you think about Mr. Speaker?
Honestly, he looks like not much more than a very nice turf miler to me at this stage. If he wins the Bluegrass and looks really good doing it, then I might consider him for exotics in the Derby, depending on how the field shapes up, post position, etc. Too bad he is not going to one of the final dirt preps because I think we'd learn a lot more about him that way. A turf horse going the KEE synth route is pretty standard.
Good points. I hope he does well and his pedigree shows the Gulfstream effort on dirt to be an aberration.
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/31/derby-dozen-march-31-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. California Chrome
2. Hopperunity
3. Candy Boy
4. Constitution
5. Tapiture
6. Ring Weekend
7. Intense Holiday
8. General a Rod
9. Samraat
10. Cairo Prince
11. Vicar's In Trouble
12. Uncle Sigh
I have 9 of 12 this week. Don't know if that's good or bad - as things thin out its probably expected.
I do not understand jumping horses like Constitution to the top off a 9 furlong win and dropping a horse like Cairo Prince so far down.
It will truly be interested to see if this trio of California horses deliver as this list suggests they should.
You go Stevie Baby!!!
Too bad he's obviously got concerns as to whether Bayern is headed there and Indianapolis definitely isn't ... or SoCal may have had his Top 5 slots ... As I, personally, think they're better than Candy Boy and Hoppertunity.
But I'm happy with the Top 3. 8)
NYT's Top Ten
Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert
March 30, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/31/sports/the-derby-dartboard.html?_r=0
1. California Chrome
2. Toast of New York
3. Ring Weekend
4. Samraat
5. Wildcat Red
6. Cairo Prince
7. General a Rod
8. Uncle Sigh
9. Constitution
10. Hoppertunity
7 of 10 here - seems like everyone has the same horses give or take a few...(SMILE)
DRF Top 20
Jay Privman/Mike Watchmaker
March 26, 2014
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
1. Cairo Prince
2. California Chrome
3. Tapiture
4. Candy Boy
5. Hopperunity
6. Social Inclusion
7. General a Rod
8. Intense Holiday
9. Wildcat Red
10. Chitu
11. Constitution
12. Samraat
13. In Trouble
14. Ring Weekend
15. Strong Mandate
16. Albano
17. Midnight Hawk
18. Ride on Curlin
19. Uncle Sigh
20. We Miss Artie
The Privman -Watchmaker list should be updated by tonight or tomorrow. I would be surprised if Cairo Prince is still in the top spot.
Bayern isn't in the Santa Anita Derby this Saturday ... So I can now officially trash my future wager ticket. Certainly no Kentucky Derby for him now. :-X
He'd been training pretty steadily lately, so I was holding out hope.
Quote from: The Tin Man on April 02, 2014, 07:41:34 PM
Bayern isn't in the Santa Anita Derby this Saturday ... So I can now officially trash my future wager ticket. Certainly no Kentucky Derby for him now. :-X
He'd been training pretty steadily lately, so I was holding out hope.
Bayern is going to Arkansas next week:
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-next-hoppertunity-says-baffert (http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-next-hoppertunity-says-baffert)
QuoteBaffert, who has won the Santa Anita Derby a record six times, said he plans to run the unbeaten Bayern in the $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 12.
April 10, 2014
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
Mike Watchmaker and Jay Privman
1. California Chrome 4-1
2. Constitution 8-1
3. Hopperunity 10-1
4. Tapiture 10-1
5. Wicked Strong 12-1
6. Bayern 15-1
7. Cairo Prince 15-1
8. Wildcat Red 15-1
9. Bobby's Kitten 20-1
10. Candy Boy
11. General a Rod 20-1
12. Intense Holiday 20-1
13. Samraat 20-1
14. Vicar's In Trouble 20-1
15. Chitu 25-1
16. Midnight Hawk 30-1
17. Ride On Curlin 30-1
18. Uncle Sigh 40-1
19. Ring Weekend 50-1
20. We Miss Artie 50-1
wow Wildcat Red made some lists :puppykisses:
In fairness, the DRF rankings I think have a lot of ties - looking at Watchmaker's odds...
Vicar and Wildcat are virtually tied at odds of 20-1.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) California Chrome - Must continue to impress to hold the top spot
2) Social Inclusion - If he wins Wood from post 11, he could move to No. 1
3) Bayern - It's on to the Arkansas Derby for the undefeated Baffert colt
4) Candy Boy - A solid effort on Saturday will set him up nicely for Ky Derby
5) Toast of New York - Will be a force in Ky Derby if connections decide to go
6) Constitution - Professional victory in Florida Derby; best of the rest
7) Conquest Titan - Needs points to qualify; gets Borel for Arkansas Derby
8) Ring Weekend - Late riser runs in ungraded Calder Derby on Saturday
9) Intense Holiday - Should improve off subpar effort in Louisiana Derby
10) Chitu - Baffert's charge continues to outrun pedigree; don't overlook
11) Samraat - Wasn't flattered by In Trouble's Louisiana Derby performance
12-T) Hoppertunity - Beat a weak field in Rebel; tough to take in SA Derby
12-T) Tapiture - Doesn't have the pedigree to last the 1 1/4 miles in Kentucky
Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/04/03/3755033/social-inclusion-invades-new-yorks.html#storylink=cpy
Jeff Frank is hitting the pipe pretty good I see...
Well, California Chrome seems to be the consensus number one now - at least before the SAD. He got one right. If Social Inclusion blows away the Wood field he'll look prescient.
Well, there really is no right or wrong, just a difference of opinion. My opinion is that he's smoking some good herb.
But I jest because Chrome is a legit #1 at least until Saturday, as you say. It's his 2-5 that I differ more on... and how can someone rank Conquest Titan over Samraat at this point? I'm hoping Samraat finishes in the top 3 in the Wood, and goes double digit odds in Louisville. For an undefeated horse that has a nice pedigree for distance (imo) he is getting absolutely no respect from virtually any of the pundits.
I agree about Samraat. I have a feeling he's going to win the race though, and Social Inclusion will come back down to Earth having faced graded stakes winning horses for the first time not coming off a four or so month layoff. I wonder if Ortiz will be told not to press Samraat thinking ahead to the Derby, or if Mr. Violette wants to get a strong effort out of him in this race.
Is Social Inclusion this year's Bodemeister or Uncle Mo? Though, in fairness, Mo was under the weather in the Wood.
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 04, 2014, 12:40:20 PM
I agree about Samraat. I have a feeling he's going to win the race though, and Social Inclusion will come back down to Earth having faced graded stakes winning horses for the first time not coming off a four or so month layoff. I wonder if Ortiz will be told not to press Samraat thinking ahead to the Derby, or if Mr. Violette wants to get a strong effort out of him in this race.
Well, Samraat won the battle, but lost the war. I still like him and never too late for my first list of the Derby season, lol:
1. California Chrome- I'm on board at this point. That last race was the clincher for me. Obviously he is not flawless, and he will encounter some new challenges in the big one, but this is the most dominant favorite we've seen in the past few years. Hopefully his form holds, he takes to the CD strip and draws a decent post. He also still hasn't shipped anywhere yet... but still a worthy Derby favorite.
2. Hoppertunity- love the way he is gradually improving, and he's definitely a better horse than he was even two starts ago. To me he is a solid second choice. My one concern (and it is not a small one) is that Baffert shipped and raced him too many times prior to the biggest race of his life. He looked a bit on the thin side to me in the SA Derby post parade, but he has the running style to be forwardly placed or take back slightly, and this will aid him in a field of 20. Hopefully he isn't over the top since he has to ship back east yet again.
3. Samraat- I'm not jumping ship yet. This is the exact type of horse that will grind his way into the bottom part of the tri or super, possibly even the exacta. He keeps on keeping on and that will serve him well going longer. He also has some early foot, but can run from off the pace. I have no worries about the distance with this horse... and he is improving incrementally with each start. He needs to move forward again in 4 weeks though.
4. Wicked Strong- nice improvement once he got away from GP. Some horses just do not run well down there and I think he was one. No real question about the distance, but his running style could get him into traffic trouble. He probably will get a pace setup in KY, but no guarantee and the word from the barn was that he was "tired" on Sunday. He's going to have to run harder than he ever has in 4 weeks. Hopefully he is ready.
5. Constitution- light on seasoning/foundation, but no question about his talent. Still, he's a fast Pletcher horse shipping from GP, so I take that with a bit of a grain. I think his lack of experience will probably be his undoing, but he's got a shot with a good post. Might need assistance in the form of an adverse event for a couple of those ranked above him though.
6. Commanding Curve- no lock to make the gate and, in fact, he probably won't, but he will get the distance and he will be running at the end. His running style is one factor to overcome, and he needs to improve by a significant margin to hit the board. He's "Samraat-light" in that I think he would have a fairly good chance to round out the exotics (but at a better price). He's the only horse I really like coming out of the LA Derby.
7. General a Rod- still hoping this guy bounces back from his last. On pedigree he seems a lock for 10F but he hasn't run to that yet. The connections seem happy with his last, though he failed without an apparent excuse. He also must rate successfully to have any chance.
8. Tapiture- classy, perfect running style, and relatively quick, but I can't get over the fact that all three full siblings were better suited to sprinting/miling. I think the distance will be his undoing.
radar:
Bayern- hoping for a good comeback in Arkansas.
Ring Weekend- if he trains well at CD then I will use him in some way. A replica of that race at CRC isn't going to cut it though.
Ride on Curlin, Conquest Titan- let's see how they do in ARK this weekend.
This weekend had no real surprises in my book.
California Chrome continued his dismantling of the best of the West. I'll move him up to number one because I think there is a chance that Cairo Prince may not may the gate in the Kentucky Derby with the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes yet to come in providing points since Candy Boy went ahead of Cairo Prince with his third place finish showing a little bit of the rust that Cairo Prince exhibited.
In the Wood, Samraat continued to distinguish himself. He's a gutsy horse. Social Inclusion had a nice run, but he will likely not make the Derby. His connections said they were pointing to the Preakness and hopefully that is where they will send him because I do not think he can carry his speed 10 furlongs in a 20 horse field.
The big question is what to do with Wicked Strong. He showed he does not travel well. The question is whether Gulfstream is the anomaly I think it is. I think he could be special. His sire's speed (along with that Northern Dancer bloodline) and potential TC winner Charismatic on the bottom means he's loaded.
There is a reason I had Ring Weekend listed 11th. He has shown he can win on dirt which is more than Mr. Speaker has done. I do not think this loss really hurts him too much. We know that Our Caravan will not be making the gate on May 3rd.
Derby point totals follow pedigree, three year old stakes races in bold...
1. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 150
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
California Cup Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
King Glorious Stakes, 7 furlong, cushion track
Graduation Stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs, polytrack
The only knock I see is that he hasn't raced or won outside of California. He has won over multiple surfaces and just seems to be getting better.
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 24
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Holy Bull 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Remsen Stakes carrying 6 pounds more than eventual winner Honor Code, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Can Tapiture getting on the winning side again before the Kentucky Derby? He already has the advantage of having a graded stakes win and a third place finish over the Churchill Downs track.
4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 100
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Damon Runyon Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
Can Samraat win outside of NY? Can he run fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby?
5. Wicked Strong (Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic) 104
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
9th G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs, dirt
He's got a late kick which is impressive.
6. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
4th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
I think he's the best of the Harlan's Holiday bloodline competing this year in the Kentucky Derby. I know Intense Holiday has an excuse, seeing him bobble like this in the lane the race before the Kentucky Derby did not inspire confidence.
7. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 93
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
I am starting to wonder about his ability to win without any starts as a two year old. He was far back. Granted California Chrome was a monster on this track and Hoppertunity has shown that he can travel well, but I am starting to think Apollo may be working his magic.
8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 30
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs, cushion track
I do not know if he is improving or not. Like Cairo Prince, he came off a lay-off and showed. He was the third best in the field and he finished third. However, he was second best to one of my top derby horses, so he is still in the field.
9. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Hutcheson Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt
2nd Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
2nd Juvenile Sprint, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt
He certainly has a foundation. The two questions are can he stretch out and win away from Gulfstream Park.
10. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
I have to say I like the Dynaformer on the bottom. I know his Florida Derby did not inspire confidence, but he has been moving steadily forward and is allowed a hiccup in my book. The time to peak is in four weeks, not eight days ago.
11. Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd Calder Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
He has won on multiple dirt surfaces and also on turf. The chief difference between he and Animal Kingdom that I see is that he is entering the Kentucky Derby off a loss at 9 furlongs. I do not know if he had any excuses - bad start? He'll have to step up to win the Kentucky Derby.
12. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 12 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course
G3 Palm Beach Stakes, 9 furlongs, turf
7th G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Dania Beach, 8 furlongs, turf
The question is whether he will make the gate in the Bluegrass Stakes or not. Mr. McGaughey has indicated he does not want to enter him in a big field, and that is exactly what the Bluegrass Stakes anticipates having. The other option could be the Lexington Stakes as a prep for the Preakness Stakes, but I am hopeful that he will enter the Bluegrass Stakes because I think he has the talent to win the Kentucky Derby. However, I defer to Mr. McGaughey. The worst thing to do is to press a horse where he might not be comfortable. If the trainer suggests that he might not be a good fit for the Bluegrass because of a big field, this should be a signal that the Kentucky Derby should not be an option.
On The Bubble: Toast of New York (Thewayyourare by Kingmambo and Calire Soleil by Syncline by Danzig) 100
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs?
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs, polytrack
Churchill Downs Power Rankings from their experts
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/expert-picks
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Tapiture
4. Wicked Strong
5. Candy Boy
TOP TENS
John Ascher
California Chrome
Tapiture
Hoppertunity
Wicked Strong
Candy Boy
Constitution
Strong Mandate
Cairo Prince
Intense Holiday
Samraat
Jill Byrne
California Chrome
Intense Holiday
Hoppertunity
Constitution
Wicked Strong
Tapiture
Commissioner
Candy Boy
Vicar's In Trouble
General A Rod
Ed DeRosa
California Chrome
Tapiture
Candy Boy
Samraat
Ride On Curlin
Bobby's Kitten
Chitu
Hoppertunity
Vicar's In Trouble
Strong Mandate
James Scully
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Cairo Prince
Intense Holiday
Constitution
Bayern
Tapiture
Strong Mandate
Quote from: peeptoad on April 07, 2014, 06:49:54 AM
Well, Samraat won the battle, but lost the war. I still like him and never too late for my first list of the Derby season, lol:
1. California Chrome- I'm on board at this point. That last race was the clincher for me. Obviously he is not flawless, and he will encounter some new challenges in the big one, but this is the most dominant favorite we've seen in the past few years. Hopefully his form holds, he takes to the CD strip and draws a decent post. He also still hasn't shipped anywhere yet... but still a worthy Derby favorite.
2. Hoppertunity- love the way he is gradually improving, and he's definitely a better horse than he was even two starts ago. To me he is a solid second choice. My one concern (and it is not a small one) is that Baffert shipped and raced him too many times prior to the biggest race of his life. He looked a bit on the thin side to me in the SA Derby post parade, but he has the running style to be forwardly placed or take back slightly, and this will aid him in a field of 20. Hopefully he isn't over the top since he has to ship back east yet again.
3. Samraat- I'm not jumping ship yet. This is the exact type of horse that will grind his way into the bottom part of the tri or super, possibly even the exacta. He keeps on keeping on and that will serve him well going longer. He also has some early foot, but can run from off the pace. I have no worries about the distance with this horse... and he is improving incrementally with each start. He needs to move forward again in 4 weeks though.
4. Wicked Strong- nice improvement once he got away from GP. Some horses just do not run well down there and I think he was one. No real question about the distance, but his running style could get him into traffic trouble. He probably will get a pace setup in KY, but no guarantee and the word from the barn was that he was "tired" on Sunday. He's going to have to run harder than he ever has in 4 weeks. Hopefully he is ready.
5. Constitution- light on seasoning/foundation, but no question about his talent. Still, he's a fast Pletcher horse shipping from GP, so I take that with a bit of a grain. I think his lack of experience will probably be his undoing, but he's got a shot with a good post. Might need assistance in the form of an adverse event for a couple of those ranked above him though.
6. Commanding Curve- no lock to make the gate and, in fact, he probably won't, but he will get the distance and he will be running at the end. His running style is one factor to overcome, and he needs to improve by a significant margin to hit the board. He's "Samraat-light" in that I think he would have a fairly good chance to round out the exotics (but at a better price). He's the only horse I really like coming out of the LA Derby.
7. General a Rod- still hoping this guy bounces back from his last. On pedigree he seems a lock for 10F but he hasn't run to that yet. The connections seem happy with his last, though he failed without an apparent excuse. He also must rate successfully to have any chance.
8. Tapiture- classy, perfect running style, and relatively quick, but I can't get over the fact that all three full siblings were better suited to sprinting/miling. I think the distance will be his undoing.
radar:
Bayern- hoping for a good comeback in Arkansas.
Ring Weekend- if he trains well at CD then I will use him in some way. A replica of that race at CRC isn't going to cut it though.
Ride on Curlin, Conquest Titan- let's see how they do in ARK this weekend.
I think you might have something there with Hoppertunity. A lot of folks have been saying that he has the tactical speed and ability to close.
Churchill Downs is not like Santa Anita. At least he has ventured out of the state of California and shown that he can best others of his generation elsewhere. I still worry about his maturity, but he is the sole three year old that I have on my list who has not raced at 2 - and I have never placed one there - so he has at least shown me he is something special.
Steve Haskin's April 7, 2014 Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/07/derby-dozen-april-7-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Wicked Strong
4. Tapiture
5. Constitution
6. General a Rod
7. Samraat
8. Intense Holiday
9. Conquest Titan
10. Ride On Curlin
11. Cairo Prince
12. Vicar's In Trouble
So - Steve likes your one two...
Well, from nine to eight on this list.
April 10, 2014
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
Mike Watchmaker and Jay Privman
1. California Chrome 4-1
2. Constitution 8-1
3. Hopperunity 10-1
4. Tapiture 10-1
5. Wicked Strong 12-1
6. Bayern 15-1
7. Cairo Prince 15-1
8. Wildcat Red 15-1
9. Bobby's Kitten 20-1
10. Candy Boy
11. General a Rod 20-1
12. Intense Holiday 20-1
13. Samraat 20-1
14. Vicar's In Trouble 20-1
15. Chitu 25-1
16. Midnight Hawk 30-1
17. Ride On Curlin 30-1
18. Uncle Sigh 40-1
19. Ring Weekend 50-1
20. We Miss Artie 50-1
Well, a lot of shockers in this weekends results I thought.
They will have little impact on my list except for some horses that did not run and one that did not run well.
Mr. Speaker comes off after I had high hopes for him entering and at least finishing second in the Bluegrass Stakes.
Strong Mandate stays off because he has shown himself to be solid as a three year old, but just not solid enough to earn his way to Churchill.
I am glad that Bayern did not earn the Derby points. I think running a horse to far too soon can hurt them and with his speed he could be special. Maybe we'll see him in the Preakness Stakes. Or maybe he'll be rested and point to the Haskell.
Hoppertunity will still be there to try and break Apollo's curse, but I think his best shot is for finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. He'll be joined by the talented Constitution who has no chance in my book unless he happens to get a dream trip. In deciding whether or not a horse can break Apollo's curse I have a high standard - I look at Curlin. I think he's the horse that came closest to doing it - though I know Bodemeister finished 2nd in 2012. Curlin though went on to win the Preakness, finish 2nd in the Belmont Stakes, win the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and BC Classic that year demonstrating that he could indeed win at 10 furlongs. We never saw Bodemeister get that win at 10 furlongs.
So, its between Intense Holiday and Ride On Curlin for me and I am going with the latter. Something about Intense Holiday just does not appeal to me. Ride On Curlin actually took a step back in the Arkansas Derby but I still think he may be the better Derby horse.
Derby point totals follow pedigree, three year old stakes races in bold...
1. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 150
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
California Cup Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
King Glorious Stakes, 7 furlong, cushion track
Graduation Stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs, polytrack
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 24
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Holy Bull 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Remsen Stakes carrying 6 pounds more than eventual winner Honor Code, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
4th Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 100
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Damon Runyon Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
5. Wicked Strong (Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic) 104
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
9th G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs, dirt
6. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
4th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
7. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 93
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 30
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs, cushion track
9. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Hutcheson Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt
2nd Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
2nd Juvenile Sprint, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt
10. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
11. Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd Calder Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
12. Ride On Curlin (Curlin and Magical Ride by Storm Cat) 55
Next race: May 3 G1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd Street Sense, 8 furlongs, dirt
3rd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
4th G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
I thought I had the order right in the Arkansas Derby...and then looked as a website that said Tapiture was third and ROC 4th...
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 08, 2014, 06:13:41 AM
I think you might have something there with Hoppertunity. A lot of folks have been saying that he has the tactical speed and ability to close.
We'll see. Hopper is still my solid #2 and, to be honest, I have two big doubts about CA Chrome that I will not voice until I see him move over the CD strip (if I even get the chance).
Regarding Hopper I think he is a solid horse, is well meant for the Derby, and the only knock I have is that he did not race at 2 and was raced 5 times this year already in an effort to make up for that. Hopefully he is not over the top because that's the only real issue I have with him. A lot of people (not on this board) think he is the wise guy horse, and maybe he is but I cannot see that. I think he will get bet at CD and the wise guy is supposed to be an under the radar type that takes more money than they should.
For me Medal Count is probably the wise guy, but that remains to be seen.
Here is my list for this week (and I will possibly update once more before the field is set). Only real change is the removal of Tapiture... I already had him ranked low and I was actually hoping he'd run on Saturday so he'd take money because I don't like him for the Derby at all.
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Samraat
4. Wicked Strong
5. Commanding Curve**
6. Constitution
7. Ride On Curlin
8. Dance With Fate
9. General a Rod
10. Wildcat Red
** if he makes the gate- looking unlikely at this point.
I kind of place Dance With Fate in the same category as We Miss Artie - though his 2nf place finish in the G1 Frontrunner right behind Bondholder provides a bit more reason to think he might be able to do something on dirt than We Miss Artie. The only problem is that that was months ago and since then his dirt efforts have not been inspiring.
I did really like his win in the Bluegrass Stakes though and I thought it a shame that this is the last time we'll likely see a horse like him enter the race with the switch back to dirt.
I considered dropping Tapiture. He had no excuses. But I look at it like his last two efforts have been good ones...and he bounced a bit.
I do not think Hoppertunity will be over the top at all.
I think he needed those 5 races to build some bottom since he hadn't raced at 2 and now that he has it he can do what so many others - including the great Curlin were unable to do - break that curse. I think he will be very sharp for the Derby and agree he is no wise guy horse - heck he's number two on most Derby lists...
As expected, not much change in Steve's list. We share nine out of 12...
He does offer some interesting insights about Danza's breeder.
LIke many folks this week, he dumped Tapiture. I think Tapiture can be forgiven. Some suggest he had no excuses, but I think after two strong performances he can be forgiven for taking a step back. Maybe this is a glimpse of what impact stretching out will mean for him, but its just one race. If Hoppertunity could be forgiven for a less than brilliant performance in the Santa Anita Derby, I think Tapiture could be forgiven for this performance. Then again, Hoppertunity was facing the Derby favorite over his favorite surface, while Tapiture was not facing top Derby prospects over a surface he seemed to relish in the recent past. So, I do not blame folks for jumping off his bandwagon - I'm just not one of them.
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/14/derby-dozen-april-14-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
April 14, 2014
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Wicked Strong
4. Constitution
5. Danza
6. General a Rod
7. Cairo Prince
8. Intense Holiday
9. Samraat
10. Ride On Curlin
11. Candy Boy
12. Vicar's In Trouble
Some more three year old rankings:
America's Best Racing
NTRA Top Three Year Old Thoroughbred Poll
April 14, 2014
http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/leaderboard/polls/
1. California Chrome 506
2. Constitution 372
3. Wicked Strong 309
4. Hoppertunity 266
5. Samraat 220
6. Wildcat Red 164
7. Vicar's In Trouble 161
8. Danza 158
9. Cairo Prince 120
10. Untapable 118
Others receiving votes
Intense Holiday (99)
Candy Boy (70)
Tapiture (44)
Dance With Fate (39)
Ride On Curlin (39)
Horse Racing Nation Fan Power Rankings of Top Three Year Olds
http://www.horseracingnation.com/polls/current/PowerRankings_Active
1. California Chrome
2. Untapable (f)
3. Vicar's In Trouble
4. Cairo Prince
5. Constitution
6. Tapiture
7. Wicked Strong
8. Divine Oath
9. Sugar Shock (f)
10. Wildcat Red
2014 Three Year Old Top Time Form Rankings
http://www.horseracingnation.com/
1. Wicked Strong 117 4/5
2. Social Inclusion 115 4/5
3. Social Inclusion 114 3/12
4. Schiaverelli 114 2/21
5. Samraat 114 4/5
6. Schiaverelli 113 4/5
7. California Chrome 113 4/5
8. California Chrome 111 3/8
9. Gracer 111 2/8
10. Fast Anna 110 4/12
11. Uncle Sigh 110 2/1
12. Danza 110 4/12
13. Samraat 110 2/1
14. In Trouble 109 3/1
Top Three Year Old Beyer Speed Figures
http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
1. Social Inclusion 111 3/12
2. California Chrome 108 3/8
3. California Chrome 107 4/5
4. Untapable 106 3/29
5. Wicked Strong 104 4/5
6. Alex Inc 102 2/25
7. Chitu 102 3/23
8. Danza 102 4/12
9. Cee n O 3/26 101
10. Favorite Tale 3/24 101
11. General a Rod 2/22 101
12. Wildcat Red 2/22 101
13. Hopperunity 3/15 100
14. Untapable 2/22 100
DRF Top 20
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker
1. California Chrome 3-1
2. Wicked Strong 8-1
3. Hoppertunity 10-1
4. Cairo Prince 12-1
5. Danza 12-1
6. Samraat 15-1
7. Tapiture 15-1
8. Vicar's In Trouble 15-1
9. Wildcat Red 15-1
10. Candy Boy 20-1
11. Dance With Fate 20-1
12. General a Rod 20-1
13. Intense Holiday 20-1
14. Chitu 30-1
15. Medal Count 30-1
16. Midnight Hawk 30-1
17. Ride On Curlin 30-1
18. Uncle Sigh 30-1
19. Ring Weekend 50-1
20. We Miss Artie 50-1
Well, I must like their top 12 the best - I have 10-12 of their picks...of course where we differ is one numbers 17 and 19 which I have much higher...
ESPN Power Rankings
April 17
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10786772/power-rankings-2014-top-10-kentucky-derby-contenders-week-9
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Wicked Strong
4. Constitution
5. Samraat
6. Cairo Prince
7. Vicar's In Trouble
8. Intense Holiday
9. Candy Boy
10. Wildcat Red
11. Danza
I added Danza since Constitution is off the Derby/TC trail and he was next in points for them.
So, only one non-racer at 2 will be running. But I like Steve Haskin's comment that Hoppertunity was actually ready to run in a November race and was scratched - so unlike other horses that did not race at 2 - Hoppertunity was actually in training and ready to run...so perhaps the Apollo curse will not hold on him...
I always find it exceedingly amusing watching people knock themselves out looking for reasons NOT to support a horse for the Derby. Whatever BS what if they can invent ...
Memo to those who do that in regards to California Chrome ... if you've got to try so hard to find reasons not to back him ... you, in reality, know he's the one. If he weren't, you wouldn't have to work so hard to make him a "play against".
I've not seen it here ... but I have elsewhere.
And those vaulting Danza ahead of him off his last race alone are REALLY stretching. Cali Chrome has romped in hand rides 4 straight. Danza has done practically nothing in comparison.
Everything I read says California Chrome is the deserving favorite and the deserving number one on Derby lists.
Now, from a handicapping standpoint, I could certainly see using him as a play against.
However, from the standpoint of picking the winner if there is general agreement that he is the well-deserved favorite then I do not know how one can doubt him.
It will be interesting to see how he takes to the Churchill Downs track.
And the weather will be another factor certainly to weigh.
But I am cheering for him and his connections.
This is an absolute travesty...
Now Cairo Prince is gone. Mr. Speaker, who was brilliant on Saturday, will not be going as his entry in Saturday's race at all made clear.
So, I am adding Commanding Curve. Intense Holiday who I have considered multiple times and not added will likely win it, but Commanding Curve has Churchill Downs experience and has done well...so I hope he makes it in. If not - I'll go with a top 11.
Derby point totals follow pedigree, three year old stakes races in bold...
1. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 150
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
California Cup Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
King Glorious Stakes, 7 furlong, cushion track
Graduation Stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs, polytrack
2.Wicked Strong (Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic) 104
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
9th G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs, dirt
3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
4th Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 100
2nd G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Damon Runyon Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
5. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
4th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
6. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 93
2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
7. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 30
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs, cushion track
8. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90
2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Hutcheson Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt
2nd Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
2nd Juvenile Sprint, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt
9. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
10. Commanding Curve (Master Command (by A.P. Indy) and Mother by Lionhearted) 20
3rd G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
6th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
11. Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
2nd Calder Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
12. Ride On Curlin (Curlin and Magical Ride by Storm Cat) 55
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd Street Sense, 8 furlongs, dirt
3rd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
4th G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Well, from my original derby list...from December 24th...
I have only one of the original 12 making the gate...and 2 of the original 15...including honorable mentions.
6 of the 15 did not even start in 2014 yet.
Unfortunately, one is deceased.
One is retired.
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 24, 2013, 08:42:44 AM
Well, we have been unable to lure Matt Converse here to offer his suggestions, so I'll steal his angle with MOT's Derby Dozen. I figure MOT's Derby Dozen is a lesser facsimile of Matt's Derby Dozen. (SMILE)
And you do not have to wait for the countdown.
1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)
He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.
2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)
It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)
Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card.
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)
His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.
5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)
His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.
Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)
This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
7. Strong Mandate ( Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)
This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park
8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)
Next race: San Felipe/Robert Lewis?
Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or San Felipe
9. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)
Next race: Unknown.
Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.
10. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)
Next race: Unknown.
He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.
11. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.
12. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)
Next race: Unknown.
I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.
Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Next race: Unknown.
This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)
Next race: Unknown.
Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.
Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)
Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.
A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.
:thanks: For the list - I have many of the same but in different order = I really like Wildcat Red - he seems to just try so hard - why do have Candy Boy above him>? Just asking
A couple of reasons...
The biggest reason is that I think Wildcat Red may have peaked already. I know he let his pursuers get away with dawdling fractions which enabled Constitution to close on the inside rail and pass him at the wire - but was that because he was having an off day - because his connections feared he might be distance challenged - is distance challenged or just because he could have gone faster and opted to try and save as much gas in the tank for the closing kick? So, I think we may have seen Wildcat Red's best. I saw his Fountain of Youth performance in person so I was impressed with him and I understand that Constitution a top horse - but Constitution was never on my Derby list.
Another major concern I have is the fact that he has never won or even raced outside Gulfstream Park.
And then there is the Derby pace which is likely to be heavy on early speed which could burn him out.
Finally, there is his breeding - he may be a miler or a sprinter...I am just not certain he's a nine or ten furlong horse.
Candy Boy, on the other hand, I do not think I have seen his best yet - so I believe he has more of a potential upside.
He finished second to a horse which I believe is the best of the three year old crop - Shared Belief - in the Cash Call Futurity and third to the Kentucky Derby favorite.
I know his last race was lackluster...BUT...he had a long lay off like Cairo Prince who I had highly placed on my board. I know a third place performance without excuses other than the lay off is not the way you want to enter a 10 furlong, 20 horse race but I think he's definitely a really good horse with that potential.
His sire won at distances from 6 to10 furlongs - so I think that is another big up side.
And he has raced at three tracks - granted all California based...but he has at least shown that he can carry his ability from track to track.
But you make one good point with regard to Wildcat Red which may be more important than these other issues - his character - he has more experience than Candy Boy (even though they both have run 7 times - I think its the way he has raced) - and he does seem to battle - and having a fighter who may be distance challenged that has finished 1st or 2nd in all of his races vs. a horse that has finished 1st or second in 4 of his races...winning only 2 vs. a horse that has won 4 and finished a close second in his last races vs. a horse that has finished a distant third in his last race...could be the difference. We'll see.
Everybody is back on the Dance with Fate bandwagon since they are pointing there.
I know I defended his dirt pedigree with his second place finish to Bond Holder in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes, but I truly wonder if this is the right move for him.
I really do not think that dirt will be the problem for him. After all, with that second place finish there, but one has to believe what his connections are saying - that dirt is not his best surface.
The problem I have with him is the three week turn around.
His connections did not seem to have any problem with trying him again on dirt since they mentioned the Preakness has his probable next start after the Bluegrass Stakes.
I think this would have been his best option - five weeks rest...since he has never won off of three weeks rest - granted he came in second - and he is getting older, bigger, stronger, more mature so maybe it will not make a difference.
But with his first cross country plane ride being the Bluegrass Stakes, and then shipping him back to California, and deciding to change plans and enter the Derby picture (probably seeing horses like Constitution and Cairo Prince dropping out) I think is not the best situation for him...
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
April 21, 2014
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Danza
4. Wicked Strong
5. General a Rod
6. Intense Holiday
7. Ride On Curlin
8. Samraat (which I learned means Emperor)
9. Dance with Fate
10. Candy Boy
11. Vicar's In Trouble
12. Medal Count
My nickel says (they've abolished the penny in Canada) this is how I see them top 10.
#1 California Chrome: The cream rises to the top. It seemed it took this guy a while to get to the top, but there aren't many left from the two year old stars. Even if there were, I doubt many would have shined as brightly as this guy does. The last time he was beat was last year! Since then, he has won 4 in a row by a combined 24 ¼ lengths. Who has he beaten? He has beaten the clock. He has taken times, stomped on them and smashed them to smithereens. The 2nd fastest Santa Anita Derby ever and he was being geared down the last 100 yards. Looks like a mortal lock, a bet the house type, but they still have to run the race. CC has broken slow twice; he could get bumped around, get a bad ride etc., things happen in the derby. My biggest fear is going wide. When jockeys are on the best horse, they always ride wide to stay out of trouble. Is he good enough to go 4 wide for a mile and a ¼ ? If he wins the derby for sure he'll win all 3. NBC is going to show the connections of owner and trainers and people are going to cry in their mint juleps! Good luck California Chrome it's yours for the taking.
#2 Wildcat Red: the little horse that could with Northern Dancer blood in him running on his 50th anniversary. When I started looking for my derby horse most had been injured or been finishing up the track, not this guy. A sprinters pedigree and heart of a champion and winning right from the get go. Getting a class test at the beginning of the year, and at a mile he battled General A Rod all around the track. What a race! He came up a head short though. I was looking forward to him taking on Cairo Prince but it wasn't meant to be, he had a fever and had to scratch. So he found another stakes the G3 Hutcheseon turning back in distance, it was cake walk. On to the FOY, where he would be stretching out, and going around two turns for the 1st time. Another epic battle ensued, with General A Rod all the way around. He wouldn't let him pass and won the race by a head. Next up the FL Derby and still the skeptics don't think he'll get the distance. Another epic battle all the way around. This time it was won by the highly talented Constitution by a ½ length and another length and a bit back to General A Rod. The race reminded me of the 1997 SA Derby with Free House, Silver Charm and the great filly Serrena's Song. The most important part of Wildcat Red is he always gives his all. Good luck.
#3 General A Rod: Well I love Wildcat Red and this guy has danced every dance with him. A 1st , 2nd and a 3rd. The two losses were a combined long length in half. He has some Dynaformer in him on the bottom Joel Rosario and Mike Maker are nice connections too! I think he'll improve off the FL derby. Good luck.
#4 Samraat: 6 510 Bred in NY? He could be bred in the Philippines for all I care. 6 510 as for slow times, it was a crappy winter. How are you going to run fast when it's freezing cold? I liked his sire Noble Causeway he was a useful sort. I think he'll thrive in the warmer weather. I expect another good effort. 6 510 Good luck!
#5 Uncle Sigh: A work in progress but I think the blinkers are really going to help. I like his trainer Gary Contessa fly's under the radar nationally, but very good. Wounded Warrior Stables. Good luck
#6 Danza: Loved his last race looked like he'll relish a 1 ¼. Sounds like Danzig. Good luck
#7 Wicked Strong: Like his breeding and connections but doesn't win enough for me. Good luck.
#8 Candy Boy: Kinda like above. I wish he would have shown up more for the SA Derby. Was wide and got shoved out by Hopportunity but still finished flat. Good luck
#9 Hopportunity: Great connections and been busy running this year. 5 210 Awesome breeding I just don't think he is fast enough IMO. Good luck
#10 Dance With Fate: Nice record 8 330 and one of those 2nds was on dirt! Going to be well bet because of his record and his name has "fate" in it. Good luck
Kentucky Derby.com Expert Picks
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/expert-picks
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Intense Holliday
4. Ride On Curlin
5. Wicked Strong and Samraat (tie)
Interesting that Ride On Curlin is placed so high.
I think its interesting to look at the major two year old in the money finishes in top races...and see how many of those horses are left.
G1 Hopeful Stakes
1. Strong Mandate
2. Casiguapo
3. Lunarwarfare
G1 Del Mar Futurity
1. Tamarando
2. Dance With Fate
3. Can The Man
G1 Frontrunner Stakes
1. Bond Holder
2. Dance With Fate
3. Tamarando
G1 Champagne Stakes
1. Havana
2. Honor Code
3. Ride On Curlin
G1 Breeders Futurity
1. We Miss Artie
2. Smarty's Echo
3. Arctic Slope
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
1. New Year's Day
2. Havana
3. Strong Mandate
G2 Remsen Stakes
1. Honor Code
2. Cairo Prince
3. Wicked Strong
G1 Cash Call Futurity
1. Shared Belief
2. Candy Boy
3. Tamarando
I don't know if I left any others out...but we see four horses that will likely enter the gate - none of them race winners - and 13 others who will not be in the gate.
Kentucky Derby Odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2038386-kentucky-derby-2014-contenders-california-chrome-top-pick-with-field-almost-set
Horse Odds
California Chrome 2-1
Wicked Strong 8-1
Danza 8-1
Vicars In Trouble 10-1
Cairo Prince 14-1
Hoppertunity 14-1
Intense Holiday 20-1
Wildcat Red 16-1
Samraat 20-1
Tapiture 20-1
NYT Top Ten List from 4/13/14
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/sports/the-kentucky-derby-dartboard-week-3.html
1. California Chrome
2. Wicked Strong
3. Ride on Curlin
4. Ring Weekend
5. General a Rod
6. Wildcat Red
7. Cairo Prince
8. Samraat
9. Constitution
10. Hopperunity
Top 20 Kentucky Derby Picks
http://www.whas11.com/home/Roedemeier-Top-20-Derby-picks---April-14-2014-255264391.html
April 14, 2014
1. California Chrome
2. Constitution
3. Samraat
4. Hopperunity
5. Wicked Strong
6. Ride on Curlin
7. Intense Holiday
8. General a Rod
9. Tapiture
10. Vicar's In Trouble
11. Danza
12. Chitu
13. Midnight Hawk
14. Candy Boy
15. Ring Weekend
16. Dance With Fate
17. We Miss Artie
18. Uncle Sigh
19. Medal Count
20. Cairo Prince
Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
http://moneyonthenose.blogspot.com/2014/04/4-23-2014-top-kentucky-derby-contenders.html
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Danza
4. Samraat
5. Wildcat Red
DRF Top 20
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
1. California Chrome 3-1
2. Wicked Strong 8-1
3. Hoppertunity 10-1
4. Danza 12-1
5. Candy Boy 15-1
6. Dance With Fate 15-1
7. Intense Holiday 15-1
8. Samraat 15-1
9. Tapiture 15-1
10. Vicar's In Trouble 15-1
11. Wildcat Red 15-1
12. General a Rod 20-1
13. Medal Count 20-1
14. Ride on Curlin 20-1
15. Chitu 30-1
16. Uncle Sigh 30-1
17. We Miss Artie 30-1
18. Harry's Holiday 50-1
19. Ring Weekend 50-1
20. Vinceremos 50-1
So now Ring Weekend is out...who's next?
Derby point totals follow pedigree, three year old stakes races in bold...
1. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 150
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
California Cup Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
King Glorious Stakes, 7 furlong, cushion track
Graduation Stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs, polytrack
2.Wicked Strong (Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic) 104
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
9th G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs, dirt
3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
4th Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 100
2nd G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Damon Runyon Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
5. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
4th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
6. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 93
2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
7. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 30
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs, cushion track
8. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90
2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Hutcheson Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt
2nd Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
2nd Juvenile Sprint, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt
9. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
10. Commanding Curve (Master Command (by A.P. Indy) and Mother by Lionhearted) 20
3rd G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
6th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
11. Ride On Curlin (Curlin and Magical Ride by Storm Cat) 55
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd Street Sense, 8 furlongs, dirt
3rd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
4th G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
12. Dance with Fate (Two Step Salsa and Flirting with Fate by Saint Ballado) 104
G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, synthetic
2nd G3 El Camino Real Derby, 9 furlongs, synthetic
8th G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs. synthetic
I added Dance with Fate because I believe he is one of the best horses in the field.
He has a nice G1 win on synthetic and that has translated to running well at Churchill - not for every horse - but some.
While I still believe that his connections were correct in suggesting a three week turn around was not ideal if he takes to the surface and can turn around in three weeks he could have potential to win it. He certainly has the talent.
On my final list he could move up...because of this.
Right now I think there are four horses that could really win...CC, WS, CC, and DWF. I think the rest are running for place and show position and if these four perform well that could be your superfecta.
Well, they say that Pletcher's top charges Danza and Intense Holiday have been doing well - and Medal Count as well.
I just have trouble believing in Medal Count. Just because a horse trains well over a track does not mean that he will run well over it in a race.
This is why I give much more credence to actual wins over a track...and why Tapiture and Commanding Curve remain strong possibilities for me.
Bleacher Report Superfecta
Joseph Zucker
April 28
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2043393-2014-kentucky-derby-odds-and-predictions-for-top-favorites-among-all-entries
1. Wicked Strong
2. California Chrome
3. Vicar's In Trouble
5. Danza
The Experts
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/expert-picks
John Asher
1. California Chrome
2. Wicked Strong
3. Hoppertunity
4. Intense Holiday
5. Candy Boy
6. Ride On Curlin
7. Tapiture
8. Medal Count
9. Danza
10. Samraat
Jill Byrne
1. California Chrome
2. Intense Holiday
3. Hoppertunity
4. Candy Boy
5. Ride On Curlin
6. Wicked Strong
7. Tapiture
8. Medal Count
9. Danza
10. Samraat
Ed DeRosa
1. General a Rod
2. Ride On Curlin
3. Danza
4. Dance With Fate
5. Tapiture
6. California Chrome
7. Samraat
8. Intense Holiday
9. Vicar's In Trouble
10. Hoppertunity
James Scully
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Samraat
4. Medal Count
5. Candy Boy
6. Wicked Strong
7. Danza
8. Intense Holiday
9. Ride on Curlin
10. General a Rod
Weather for the Kentucky Derby is supposed to be sunny and 71 degrees with a low of 50.
So, the California horses should not be compromised at all.
I was thinking this might be one factor which might call into question California Chrome's abilities...
That said - the surface itself is still an issue.
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 29, 2014, 01:23:12 PM
Weather for the Kentucky Derby is supposed to be sunny and 71 degrees with a low of 50.
So, the California horses should not be compromised at all.
I was thinking this might be one factor which might call into question California Chrome's abilities...
That said - the surface itself is still an issue.
Supposedly his pedigree is chock fun of mudders ... That being said ... I prefer all major races run under optimum weather conditions as I prefer to have the best overall horses be from whence the winner comes(in big races) ... I'm not big into fluke winners created through poor weather conditions.
Great weather ... optimum conditions and if they can beat Cali Chrome ... So be it ...
By the way ... Go Cali Chrome!!! :chickendance:
Glad to read you TTM. Now that Cairo Prince is out we are all in as "Chromies".
Wish we could have been at Los Alamitos for his last work.
Quote from: The Tin Man on April 29, 2014, 10:55:58 PM
Supposedly his pedigree is chock fun of mudders ... That being said ... I prefer all major races run under optimum weather conditions as I prefer to have the best overall horses be from whence the winner comes(in big races) ... I'm not big into fluke winners created through poor weather conditions.
Great weather ... optimum conditions and if they can beat Cali Chrome ... So be it ...
By the way ... Go Cali Chrome!!! :chickendance:
Ohhhh...I dunno 'bout that. I made some $ betting Ruler On Ice in the Belmont because I heard he was a mudder... ;)
But really I'd rather see ideal conditions too.
I hope they tighten up the track
Quote from: The Tin Man on April 29, 2014, 10:55:58 PM
Supposedly his pedigree is chock fun of mudders ... That being said ... I prefer all major races run under optimum weather conditions as I prefer to have the best overall horses be from whence the winner comes(in big races) ... I'm not big into fluke winners created through poor weather conditions.
Great weather ... optimum conditions and if they can beat Cali Chrome ... So be it ...
By the way ... Go Cali Chrome!!! :chickendance:
For a number of reason I am rooting for a fast track... hopefully it doesn't rain. BTW, Welsch said Chrome didn't look his best galloping over the muddy CD strip this morning. No way to tell if it's because of mud, shipping, or just his new surroundings though.
Well, he could be experiencing a little bit of jetlag - since travelling is a new experience for him. We'll see.
It is strange that no one else seemed to have anything to say about it...
Here's a link to Jay Hovdey's pic of Califorina Chrome's misspelled saddlecloth...
https://twitter.com/JayHovdey
His work yesterday sounded like it was sharp...and then today it was supposed to be a bit more involved.
"My exercise rider said it was the best the horse has felt in a long time," Sherman said. "He enjoyed the track a lot. He was different, more aggressive since he got here. So that was a good sign."
http://www.drf.com/news/violette-savoring-second-derby-run
California Chrome arrived here Monday, jogged on Tuesday, then had a far more extensive training session on Wednesday. He first visited the paddock, then galloped 1 1/2 miles over a muddy surface.
When California Chrome first stepped on the track, he announced his presence with a loud whinny. And back at the barn after his training session, California Chrome struck several poses for photographers both during and after his bath.
"He's a character," said his trainer, Art Sherman.
Here are the Courier Journal's latest rankings...
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2014/03/20/derby-media-poll/6642811/
1. California Chrome.
2. Wicked Strong.
3. Hoppertunity.
4. Candy Boy.
5. Intense Holiday.
6. Samraat.
7. Danza.
8. Medal Count.
9. Ride on Curlin.
10. Tapiture.
my final top 8:
1. Hoppertunity- has enough tactical speed from the gate to gain a decent stalking trip most of the time, speed-wise he is improving gradually, he can ship and win, and he is one of the few horses in the race that I think will truly appreciate the added furlong of the Derby. The cons mainly relate to the curse of Apollo and the fact that he's already run five times this year, a number matched only by Harry's Holiday. More races means less time between races... will the well run dry in the Derby? I am also a little concerned over the reports of him looking "stiff" while jogging this morning.
2. California Chrome- the single most likely winner of the race imo, but will be poor value no matter how you slice it. It remains to be seen exactly how I utilize him in wagers, but definitely the fastest horse in contention... his recent numbers are on par with what is (or was) the average winning speed figure for the Derby. Obviously he has some question marks, but so does every horse in the field. I do think drawing the 5-hole might force him to use more speed from the gate than he is accustomed to. He also absolutely needs to break well since I think he is only 1-4 after slow breaks.
3. Dance With Fate- wins the award for the best-looking horse in the field, but looks don't win the Derby. His synthetic form is rock solid, dirt is still a question, but he had an excellent work on the SA dirt last Saturday and galloped very strongly over the CD strip yesterday. All accounts says he looks good over the track and his running style will suit the projected pace scenario. He will be closing at the end. He ran the fastest closing 3/8 mile of any horse in the field last out in the Blue Grass (albeit over Polytrack).
4. Samraat- consistency and gameness are his best attributes; the drawbacks are speed figures that are slightly weaker than most of the top contenders, and no real turn of foot. On the plus side his grinding running style has won Derbys in the past, and he does seem to have enough tactical speed early on to position himself well. He's also a horse that I think shouldn't have too much trouble with the added ground, in part because he has an excellent foundation. In pp #6 he is outside of most of the other speed (save Chitu and Wildcat Red), which should give him a slight advantage.
5. Intense Holiday- I wasn't on board with guy until just a few days ago. I found his run in the Louisiana Derby a little lackluster, but he was positioned much closer to the early pace that day and he really prefers to drop back and make a late run. If they revert to that running style I think he will give a good account in the Derby. He is another that has been getting rave reviews about his work over the Churchill surface. He is Pletcher's best shot at a second Derby.
6. Wicked Strong- hard not to root for this guy with the charity he's attached to, and he does have one race that puts him in contention. He's a bit difficult to get a clear read on and I have to assume that he just did not care for the Gulfstream surface since those two races are sort of outliers on his resume.The main negative is his running style since it may be hard for him to avoid traffic with 19 others to watch out for, but should finish strongly. Prior to the post draw I had him ranked much higher... the 20-hole won't matter so much for his running style, but he appears to be a fairly fractious horse and was reportedly shying away from people and objects during early morning training hours this week. He will be the closest to the grandstand of 150,000 drunk, screaming fans, so good luck to him on that regard.
7. Commanding Curve- the "bubble horse" draws into the field at the last minute due to the defection of Ring Weekend and I think he has an excellent chance to pick up the pieces. He's a horse I would use underneath- possibly to round out the trifecta or superfecta. He is a bit on the slow side in comparison to the best here, but the distance won't be an issue, his come-from-behind running style should serve him well, and he broke his maiden at this track, so we know he likes the surface. Figures to be about 40 or 50-1 come post time. Bombs away!
8. Medal Count- the "other" synthetic horse in the field has been turning heads in the morning, ran a fine second to Dance With Fate in the Bluegrass and should give a good account of himself is he gets a decent trip. His closing figures are weaker than DWF though, and the surface is sill a bit of question mark despite his decent works over it. His "wise guy" status means he also might get bet down to shorter odds than he's worth.
Thanks peeptoad. Sound analysis all around.
I just do not believe Medal Counts works add up to much.
I know other horses that have trained well over a track and then run poorly in an actual race.
Has Medal Count been working in company?
I know folks say that success on Keeneland polytrack translates to Churchill Downs, but when has that last happened? Dullahan? Paddy O' Prado?
I don't see Medal Count as that quality a horse, but I could be wrong.
Quote from: Man o Taz on May 01, 2014, 05:59:33 AM
Thanks peeptoad. Sound analysis all around.
I just do not believe Medal Counts works add up to much.
I know other horses that have trained well over a track and then run poorly in an actual race.
Has Medal Count been working in company?
I know folks say that success on Keeneland polytrack translates to Churchill Downs, but when has that last happened? Dullahan? Paddy O' Prado?
I don't see Medal Count as that quality a horse, but I could be wrong.
Not sure about him working in company, just that the pundits seem to like what they see. I agree he probably not as good as Paddy or some of the other turf/synth horses. I vastly prefer Dance With Fate actually... it was close between Medal Count, General a Rod, and Ride on Curlin for that 8th spot though.
Hoppertunity is out, Peep. :banghead:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84766/bad-foot-knocks-hoppertunity-from-derby
Hopefully this will be the last defection.
I was surprised only 21 horses entered the derby because I thought they allowed two AEs.
Big Bazinga might have made it.
Quote from: Man o Taz on May 01, 2014, 08:20:18 AM
Big Bazinga might have made it.
Thankfully his owners had more sense and entered in the turf undercard race. Pablo del Monte will surely spice up the early pace. Chrome better have his running shoes because I think the pace will be hot.
Quote from: Senator L on April 30, 2014, 06:57:56 AM
I hope they tighten up the track
I hope they DO NOT - hate when Churchill does that
Race 11 - Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)
Purse $2,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds, With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. Supplemental nominations may be made upon payment of $200,000 and in accordance with the rules set forth herein. Churchill Downs Racetrack shall guarantee a minimum gross purse of $2,000,000. The winner shall receive $1,240,000, second place shall receive $400,000, third place shall receive $200,000, fourth place shall receive $100,000 and fifth place shall receive $60,000 from the Guaranteed Purse. CDRT, in its sole and absolute discretion, may set the number of starters up to a maximum of 20 and the number of horses that are also-eligible to start up to a maximum of four. Colts and Geldings shall each carry a weight of 126 pounds; Fillies shall each carry 121 pounds. In the event that more than the Number of Starting and AE Positions pass through the entry box at the Closing, the starters and also-eligible horses shall be determined at the Closing from Original Nominees and Supplemental Nominees if starting and/or also-eligible positions are still viable, with preference given to those horses that have accumulated the most points pursuant to the Road to the Kentucky Derby Point System. One And One Fourth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Vicar's in Trouble (LA) 3/C L R Napravnik 126 M J Maker 30/1
2 2 Harry's Holiday (KY) 3/C L C J Lanerie 126 M J Maker 50/1
3 3 Uncle Sigh (NY) 3/C L I Ortiz, Jr. 126 G C Contessa 30/1
4 4 Danza (KY) 3/C L J Bravo 126 T A Pletcher 10/1
5 5 California Chrome (CA) 3/C L V Espinoza 126 A Sherman 5/2
6 6 Samraat (NY) 3/C L J L Ortiz 126 R A Violette, Jr. 15/1
7 7 We Miss Artie (ON) 3/C L J Castellano 126 T A Pletcher 50/1
8 8 General a Rod (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 126 M J Maker 15/1
9 9 Vinceremos (KY) 3/C L J Rocco, Jr. 126 T A Pletcher 30/1
10 10 Wildcat Red (FL) 3/C L L Saez 126 J Garoffalo 15/1
11 11 Hoppertunity (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 6/1
12 12 Dance With Fate (FL) 3/C L C S Nakatani 126 P Eurton 20/1
13 13 Chitu (KY) 3/C L M Garcia 126 B Baffert 20/1
14 14 Medal Count (KY) 3/C L R Albarado 126 D L Romans 20/1
15 15 Tapiture (KY) 3/C L R Santana, Jr. 126 S M Asmussen 15/1
16 16 Intense Holiday (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 126 T A Pletcher 12/1
17 17 Commanding Curve (KY) 3/R L S Bridgmohan 126 D Stewart 50/1
18 18 Candy Boy (KY) 3/C L G L Stevens 126 J W Sadler 20/1
19 19 Ride On Curlin (KY) 3/C L C H Borel 126 W G Gowan 15/1
20 20 Wicked Strong (KY) 3/C L R Maragh 126 J A Jerkens 8/1
Also Eligibles:
21 21 Pablo Del Monte (FL) 3/C L J Sanchez 126 W A Ward 50/1
Owners: 1 - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey; 2 - Skychai Racing LLC, Sand Dollar Stable LLC, Raymond, T. and Wagner, J.; 3 - Wounded Warrior Stables (Chip McEwen) and Anthony C. Robertson; 4 - Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners (Aron Wellman); 5 - Steven Coburn and Perry Martin; 6 - My Meadowview Farm (Leonard Riggio); 7 - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey; 8 - Skychai Racing LLC and Starlight Racing; 9 - WinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC; 10 - Honors Stable Corp. (Salvatore Delfino and Josie Martino Delfino); 11 - Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman; 12 - Alesia, Sharon, Bran Jam Stable and Ciaglia Racing LLC; 13 - Tanma Corporation (Susan Chu); 14 - Spendthrift Farm, LLC (B. Wayne Hughes); 15 - Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ron Winchell); 16 - Starlight Racing (Jack Wolf, et al.); 17 - West Point Thoroughbreds, LLC (Terrence Finley); 18 - C R K Stable (Lee Searing); 19 - Daniel J. Dougherty; 20 - Centennial Farms (Donald V. Little, Jr.); 21 - Susan Magnier, Derrick Smith, Michael B. Tabor and Wesley Ward
Breeders: 1 - Spendthrift Farm LLC; 2 - Brereton C. Jones and B. Ned Jones; 3 - Milfer Farm Inc.; 4 - Liberation Farm & Brandywine Farm; 5 - Perry Martin & Steve Coburn; 6 - My Meadowview LLC; 7 - Richard L. Lister; 8 - Hare Forest Farm; 9 - Machmer Hall; 10 - Moreau Bloodstock International, Inc. &Winter Racing Enterprise, I; 11 - Betz/D.J. Stable/Kidder/J. Betz/Robenalt; 12 - Best A Luck Farm LLC; 13 - Tom Evans, Macon Wilmil Equines &Marjac Farms; 14 - Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC; 15 - Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; 16 - Machmer Hall & Haymarket Farm; 17 - T. F. VanMeter; 18 - Lee Searing & Susan Searing; 19 - G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise IrelandHumphrey Revocable Trust - 2008; 20 - William F. Lynn; 21 - Wesley A. Ward
Equipment Changes: 3 - Uncle Sigh - Blinkers On
Quote from: Dusty on May 01, 2014, 07:37:53 PM
I hope they DO NOT - hate when Churchill does that
I hope they have finally learned how to manage their track surface...
Seeing how the track is handled on various big racing days appears to be an enigma...totally unpredictable.
Pablo won't run... "only" 19 this year. And if Churchill soups up the track so it's speed-favoring I will personally send a hit man out.
:evil:
Just heard on HRRN that they are moving them out from the rail so Wicked Strong gets the worst of it having to stay in post 20 even though only 19 horses will be running.
Too bad. Hopefully he'll still get a good trip.
I'd like he and California Chrome to dead heat...with Commanding Curve taking third...
But who knows what will happen.
So, out of 20 horses in the gate, 2 of them were on my first Kentucky Derby list in late December.
They finished 10th (We Miss Artie) and 15th (Tapiture).
Still a lot of fun putting the lists together.
Well, mine were Havana, Albano, and Midnight Hawk, so there ya go.
It just shows the best horses as 2 year olds are not figuring into the Triple Crown in the last two years.
I think Union Rags was the last G1 winner (Champagne Stakes) at 2 years old to win a Triple Crown race.
I'll have another finished in the money in two G1 races at two, but he didn't win.
Mine That Bird was a two year old champion in Canada.
Street Sense I think is the last Kentucky Derby winner to win a G1 race (BC Juvenile) at two.
Lookin At Lucky is the last Preakness Stakes winner to win a G1 race at two (Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk, and Hollywood Futurity).
Just an interesting statistic.