MOT's Derby Dozen

[BaroqueAgain1]

  "Not happy flying?" If they had to reroute a large commercial transport in midair, I'm thinking "not happy" is a bit of an understatement. How about, "pitched a fit and tried to kick his way out of his airbox?" Or, "keeping him from killing himself (and everyone else on the plane) was going to take such a large dose of tranquillizers that he was going to flunk drug tests for the next year?"
   

[Catalina]

  "Not happy flying?" If they had to reroute a large commercial transport in midair, I'm thinking "not happy" is a bit of an understatement. How about, "pitched a fit and tried to kick his way out of his airbox?" Or, "keeping him from killing himself (and everyone else on the plane) was going to take such a large dose of tranquillizers that he was going to flunk drug tests for the next year?"
   

All of those sound like they might fit.

[peeptoad]

I still like Top Billing despite his loss last Saturday... I'm a little disappointed that Shug has opted to keep him at that speed biased-track for the FL Derby though. Was hoping he'd ship for the Wood. With his running style I think he'd do much better there. And he needs points badly.

Is Shared Belief still actually pointing for the Derby?? He hasn't run since mid-December and hasn't posted an official work since January 3rd. I love him for races later in the year, provided Dorf gets him back on track (literally), but no thanks for the roses...

[Dance With Gable]

I still like Top Billing despite his loss last Saturday... I'm a little disappointed that Shug has opted to keep him at that speed biased-track for the FL Derby though. Was hoping he'd ship for the Wood. With his running style I think he'd do much better there. And he needs points badly.

Is Shared Belief still actually pointing for the Derby?? He hasn't run since mid-December and hasn't posted an official work since January 3rd. I love him for races later in the year, provided Dorf gets him back on track (literally), but no thanks for the roses...

I've heard through the track grapevine that the next work you'll see from Shared Belief will be from Golden Gate. Word is that he'll be working up there because the synthetic is easier on his feet.

I hope that doesn't mean he's done running down here and that its just a short term 'recovery" thing instead.

[Dance With Gable]

The above is from people who traditionally know people who know. It is not directly from the connections. I've not asked them.

My guess is this info is correct. Guess we'll know for sure, if SB's next work is at Golden Gate.

[BaroqueAgain1]

  Shared Belief has moved to Golden Gate. I read that info on a couple of the racing sites...Hollendorfer was quoted as saying that the surface was better for the horse at this time.

[Man o Taz]

KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park?

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park?

Has he had a work yet - the race is two weeks away? Maybe Mr. Hollendorfer will send two to the Spiral Stakes?

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park

5. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race:  Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park

6. Top Billing (Curlin and Parade Queen by A.P. Indy)10/12-1 (14-1)
Next race: G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park

7. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park

8. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park

9. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

Can he win on a track other than Gulfstream Park's dirt track? I like that he has six races under his belt - three already this year with a fourth prep before the Derby coming in the Florida Derby.

10. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 8 G2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs

11. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

I was tempted to remove him because I thought this schedule to prepare him for the Kentucky Derby looked a lot like running Uncle Mo in the Kelso as a prep for the Breeders Cup Classic, but we'll see. Hopefully he impresses.

12. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 50-1(65-1)
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park or Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?

Honorable Mentions:

Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park

Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/18-1(20-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds

Disappointed by his performance in the Risen Star he is listed again as an Honorable Mention. I still think he may be better than Intense Holiday, but we'll see.

Bayern (Offlee Wild and Alittlebitearly by Thunder Gulch) 0/40-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park  seems too close so Mar. 15 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park?

Can he break Apollo's curse of not running at 2 and winning the Derby? I don't know. He seems a lot like Bodemeister in that he'll come up just short, but I still have him on my list. Let's see if he can stretch out.

Dropped

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/85-1(100-1)
Next race:

He still may reach the Derby if he wins the Bluegrass Stakes, but we'll have to see.

[Man o Taz]

Here are some other Derby Rankings at this stage:

ESPN Power 10
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10516787/power-rankings-2014-top-10-kentucky-derby-contenders-week-2
February 24, 2014
1. Cairo Prince
2. Honor Code
3. Candy Boy
4. Tapiture
5. Top Billing
6. Strong Mandate
7. Intense Holiday
8. Shared Belief
9. Bayern
10. Wildcat Red

I don't know if its good or bad I had 7 out of their top 10 in my top12.

Steve Haskin
February 24, 2014
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/02/24/derby-dozen-february-24-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

1. Top Billing
2. Cairo Prince
3. Honor Code
4. Candy Boy
5. Bayern
6. Intense Holiday
7. Tapiture
8. Conquest Titan
9. Mexikoma
10. California Chrome
11. General a Rod
12. Constitution

And I have 5 of Haskin's top 12 in mine.

I had not seen this one before...

Lexington Herald-Leader
February 8, 2014

Bobby's Kitten
Bond Holder
Cairo Prince
Candy Boy
Commissioner
Conquest Titan
Honor Code
Samraat
Strong Mandate
Top Billing
Vicar's In Trouble
Vinceremos

Chicago Now
Paul Mazur
February 24, 2014
http://www.chicagonow.com/picks-ponderings-chicago-horse-racing/2014/02/2014-derby-dozen-2/

1. Top Billing
2. Honor Code
3. Shared Belief
4. Strong Mandate
5. Cairo Prince
6. Intense Holiday
7. Candy Boy
8. Tamarando
9. A Step Ahead
10. Conquest Titan
11. General a Rod
12. Wildcat Red

7 of 12 of this one too. Everyone could probably do that with their lists.

Does anyone else here want to venture a full dozen? (SMILE)

[Catalina]

KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)

11. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(40-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

I was tempted to remove him because I thought this schedule to prepare him for the Kentucky Derby looked a lot like running Uncle Mo in the Kelso as a prep for the Breeders Cup Classic, but we'll see. Hopefully he impresses.

Per Paulick Report, Havana was scratched out of Swale due to quarter crack.

[Man o Taz]

Which will probably remove him from my Derby Dozen.

That's shame.

The latest in a string of runner's from New Years Day, etc. that will probably not make the Derby. Mr. Pletcher indicated that he was behind anyway - and now to miss a race that did not even provide points for the Derby is disappointing.

How about Spot's win over No Nay Never? Looks like Mr. Zito might have a nice three year old competitor. We'll see if he can stretch out. Being from Pulpit its possible he could stretch out with Secretariat on the top and bottom.

[Senator L]

Nice to see Zito win. He's been running thin the last couple years

[Man o Taz]

Yes. Has he won a three year old graded stakes since Dialed In's Florida Derby?

Its only three years, but when you look at what his partners in the Thoroughbred Legends Racing Partnership have done recently...

Lukas won the Rebel with Will Take Charge last year and the Preakness, Travers, Clark and so on...
Baffert always has a couple of stakes winners...

Etc.

Mr. Zito has always been one of my favorites. Love the name.

[Man o Taz]

The track philosopher...
fEBRUARY 28, 2014
http://www.thetrackphilosopher.com/derby-dozen-2014/

1) Cairo Prince  4-1
2) Honor Code  5-1
3) Top Billing  6-1
4) Shared Belief  8-1
↑  5) Intense Holiday  8-1
↓  6) Tapiture  10-1
7) Vicar's in Trouble 10-1
↓  Candy Boy 12-1
↑ 9) Strong Mandate  12-1
↓ 10) Tamarando 12-1
↑ 11) Constitution 14-1
12) Havana  20-1

March 3, 2014
BY JERRY BOSSERT
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

Candy Boy
Tapiture
Cairo Prince
Intense Holiday
Strong Mandate
Samraat
Uncle Sigh
Wildcat Red
General a Rod
Top Billing
Albano
Chitu
Bayern
Honor Code

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/kentucky-derby-rankings-ny-state-mind-article-1.1709017#ixzz2uvEVUbcj

[Senator L]

Well, we're starting to get a lot closer.
The one from last year I was counting on was Havana. But I doubt he'll make the
starting gate. There are a couple others that I really like

1) Candy Boy : This horse looks like he wants to run all day
2) Wildcat Red: I know his pedigree says sprinter, but if he keeps
winning why not keep betting him?
3) The top (3) from the Gotham. This bunch is fun to watch
4) General A Rod: If I like Wildcat Red I gotta like this guy
5) Gala Award, that was a nice win on the turf, great pedigree too.
Should dirt easy

[The Tin Man]

This from the Santa Anita Stable Notes yesterday morning ... March 2nd ...

In regards to Shared Belief ...



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