MOT's Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

Steve Haskin has posted his Derby Dozen - I believe much earlier than he had last year...
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/01/28/derby-dozen-january-28-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

They are:

1. Cairo Prince
2. Top Billing
3. Shared Belief
4. Honor Code
5. Conquest Titan
6. Strong Mandate
7. Mexikoma
8. Midnight Hawk
9. Vicar's In Trouble
10. Candy Boy
11. Intense Holiday
12. Commissioner

Interestingly absent from the list is Havana, but a number of folks do not believe that he can get the 10 furlong distance. 

I was glad to see that he did have 4 of the same horses that I did including my top three being in his top 4.

It will be fun to see how it shakes out.

[The Tin Man]

Not only Havana ... But also no Indianapolis ...

The omission of the above two makes his list very questionable ...

Heck ... He's even got Midnight Hawk listed, but not them ... Indianapolis would trounce Midnight Hawk if they faced each other ... IMO.

[curtis]

Not only Havana ... But also no Indianapolis ...

The omission of the above two makes his list very questionable ...

Heck ... He's even got Midnight Hawk listed, but not them ... Indianapolis would trounce Midnight Hawk if they faced each other ... IMO.

Havana seems to get late but he probably should be at least in the top dozen.  In Indianapolis' case, he's shown potential but he has to go long before people get too crazy about him.  If Indianapolis wins just as easy around two turns, he'll make the list with a bullet, I have no doubts.

[Senator L]

Sounds like Havana missed some training. First start will be 7f Hutcheseon

[serenassong]

Honor Code has had a minor setback, Shug lost about 10 days with him- but thinks that it will not be that bad- goal is now the Gotham.

[Man o Taz]

Sounds like Havana missed some training. First start will be 7f Hutcheseon

I think you mean the Swale...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83096/havana-likely-to-start-2014-season-in-swale

Honor Code has had a minor setback, Shug lost about 10 days with him- but thinks that it will not be that bad- goal is now the Gotham.

Well, so much for my thinking the Fountain of Youth could have a top quality set of starters.

With my luck Cairo Prince will wait for the Florida Derby leaving the untried Commissioner and Top Billing as the top rated entries...

C'est la vie.   

Hopefully the weather will be nice.

[Man o Taz]

Jan. 23, 2014

THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN" FOR 2014

Even though it is still January, the "Dirty Dozen" is always on top of the action. Last year, the initial list had the eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Golden Soul in the top spot, while the final list had the Kentucky Derby winner Orb as the second choice behind Verrazano.

Furthermore, the top five horses in the final 2012 "Dirty Dozen" were I'll Have Another (first), Bodemeister (second), Union Rags (seventh), Dullahan (third) and Creative Cause (fifth).

This year sports a very deep class of 3-year-olds. Considering this is the first article of the new campaign, here are 10 more horses (listed in alphabetical order) to keep an eye on over the next three months: Baratti, Candy Boy, Commanding Curve, Commissioner, Hartford, In Trouble, Noble Moon, Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Unknown Road and Vicar's in Trouble.

1) Shared Belief - Eclipse Award winner could be special

2) Honor Code - Needs to improve gate speed over the winter

3) Coup de Grace - Puts undefeated record on line Saturday

4) Cairo Prince - Only a nose prevents an unbeaten record

5) Mr Speaker - Breeding suggests he should like dirt

6) Midnight Hawk - Still very green after two starts

7) Top Billing - Runs Saturday against Surfing U S A

Bayern - Impressive debut, but it came as a 3-year-old

9) Havana - Hasn't worked since running second in BC Juvenile

10) Strong Mandate - Must overcome inconsistency this year

11) Bourbonize - Looked good winning second start at Oaklawn

12) Our Caravan - Will see what he is made of in Holy Bull

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/01/23/3048600/hollendorfer-believes-in-shared.html#storylink=cpy

[The Tin Man]

In a way, I like that none of these "experts" are touting Indianapolis ... and yes ... I understand the ol' "he has to prove he can get the distance" angle ...

But I'm pretty darn confident he will ... Anyone know when the 1st round of Kentucky Derby future bets happen? Being that he's still being overlooked, it seems I would still be able to get nice odds on him ... I want to plunk a few bucks down before people start taking him seriously!  :chickendance:

[curtis]

In a way, I like that none of these "experts" are touting Indianapolis ... and yes ... I understand the ol' "he has to prove he can get the distance" angle ...

But I'm pretty darn confident he will ... Anyone know when the 1st round of Kentucky Derby future bets happen? Being that he's still being overlooked, it seems I would still be able to get nice odds on him ... I want to plunk a few bucks down before people start taking him seriously!  :chickendance:

You definitely should!  I had the good fortune--luck is all you can call it--to pick Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand and Silver Charm as my Derby horses when they were two.  Ferdinand was especially tricky because Whittingham was very vocal about not ever going to the Derby unless he thought they'd give him a five length head start.  I've never felt about any others the way I did about them with any conviction.  If I ever do I'll let you know--just as their turning for home at Churchill.

[Senator L]

I think you mean the Swale...

my bad, thanks.

Next week is derby futures again, I think I'll put some on Havana just in
case he drifts to 30 - 1
Good luck

[Man o Taz]

No change to mine. Still want to see if Samraat can compete with the big boys. Same with Vinceremos.

Other derby dozens:

Paul Mazur
2/1/14
http://www.chicagonow.com/picks-ponderings-chicago-horse-racing/2014/02/2014-derby-dozen-1/

    1. HONOR CODE       
     2. SHARED BELIEF       
    3. TOP BILLING       
    4. A STEP AHEAD       
    5. CAIRO PRINCE         
    6. NOBLE MOON       
    7. MIDNIGHT HAWK       
    8. ALMOST FAMOUS         
    9. TANZANITE CAT       
   10. SAMRAAT           
   11. VINCEREMOS       
   12. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE   

The Track Philosopher
1/30/14
http://www.thetrackphilosopher.com/derby-dozen-2014/

1) Honor Code  4-1
2) Shared Belief  5-1
3) Cairo Prince  6-1
4) Tap It Rich  8-1
5) Mexikoma  8-1
6) Tapiture  10-1
7) Commissioner 10-1
Strong Mandate  12-1
9) Havana  12-1
↑ 10) Vicar's in Trouble 12-1
↓ 11) Top Billing 14-1
12) Coup de Grace  18-1

I hope to see more from TRF folks soon.

[Man o Taz]

No changes in order.

KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/12-1(25-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes or Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park?

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/15-1(10-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/18-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/40-1(35-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 2/30-1(30-1)
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park

8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1(50-1)
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds

9. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1(28-1)
Next race:  Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1(35-1)
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park?

11. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1(150-1)
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park

12. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1(25-1)
Next race: Unknown.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1(100-1)
Next race: G3 Palm Beach Stakes?

Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1(125-1)
Next race: Unknown.

Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds

[The Tin Man]

Re: The next KD Futures this week/end ...

While I'm bummed that Indianapolis will be starting off at 20-1(Lower than I thought) ... I, of course, am going to be plunking down a few bucks on him

And California Chrome, opening at 50-1, will take some coin from me too! He was UBER-impressive last time out ... plus his owner took a liking to my girlfriend pre-race, so we got to do the winner's circle after the race. That was fun!   

[Man o Taz]

Any word on where Tamarando might go next? He's still at 50-1.

[Man o Taz]

 Candy Boy flattered Shared Belief with his win in the Lewis.

Glad to read SB is back in training.