2015 Derby Point Standings and Schedule

[Man o Taz]

I agree across the board except for Materiality who, although he won the Florida Derby, I am just not sold on given Apollo's curse and all.

I know he has two 9 furlong wins and he's an Afleet Alex, but I am still skeptical.

Upstart fell a little bit on my list, but I still can see him as a top tier since I believe his conditioning in Florida will move him forward.

[peeptoad]

With one big prep left to run I filtered the top 18 or so horses through a system:
1st or 2nd in final prep (82% of the last 23 Derby winners)
broke maiden in 1st or 2nd career race (74% of last 23)
BSF of 103 or higher in final prep race (53% of the last 15 winners)


The only horses that ticked all 3 categories were Materiality, Upstart and Dortmund.
2 of 3: Carpe Diem, Frosted, Firing Line, Tencendur, and Stanford

I did not include Maftool since he probably won't run nor American Pharoah, Far Right, or The Truth or Else since they run this weekend.
Not saying I would use or necessarily trust this system, but it does narrow things down a bit.

[Senator L]

With one big prep left to run I filtered the top 18 or so horses through a system:
1st or 2nd in final prep (82% of the last 23 Derby winners)
broke maiden in 1st or 2nd career race (74% of last 23)
BSF of 103 or higher in final prep race (53% of the last 15 winners)

I think stats like these come in handy after you handicap
and your thinking, I might as well throw a dart. Instead
you come up with some solid info that makes you pick one horse over the other

[peeptoad]

I think all it did in this case was to narrow down the top horses (that most of us can agree upon by virtue of the top 10 lists floating around all over the place). The only horse it really eliminates from the elite is Carpe Diem, a horse that I might take a stand against for the win spot anyway. For other reasons Materiality is also not among my very top prospects for the win, although he has a brialliance to him that Carpe Diem has not shown yet.

[Senator L]

The one that I think has the most Brilliance is Firing Line

[Man o Taz]

Prospect Park off the Derby Trail with high white cell count. 

[Man o Taz]

2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings

Rank   Horse   Trainer   Points   Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1    International Star    Mike Maker   171   $940,979
2   Dortmund    Bob Baffert   170   $1,230,000
3   Carpe Diem    Todd Pletcher   164   $1,470,000
4   American Pharoah   Bob Baffert   160   $1,410,000
5   Frosted   Kiaran McLaughlin   113   $776,200
6   Mubtaahij-IRE   Mike de Kock   100   $1,400,000
7   Materiality    Todd Pletcher   100   $632,028
8   El Kabeir   John Terranova II   95   $720,792
9   Upstart    Rick Violette, Jr.    76   $807,680
10   Far Right   Ron Moquette   62   $585,906
11   Itsaknockout    Todd Pletcher   60   $288,560
12   Firing Line    Simon Callaghan   58   $530,000
13   Danzig Moon   Mark Casse   45   $217,500
14   War Story    Tom Amoss   44   $195,000
15   Tencendur   George Weaver   41   $224,500
16   One Lucky Dane   Bob Baffert   40   $200,000
17   Stanford   Todd Pletcher   40   $151,400
18   Mr. Z    D. Wayne Lukas   34   $625,826
19   Ocho Ocho Ocho   Jim Cassidy   30   $760,250
20   Bolo   Carla Gaines   30   $214,980
21   Madefromlucky   Todd Pletcher   30   $200,000
22   Keen Ice   Dale Romans   22   $136,520
23   Frammento    Nick Zito   20   $92,800
24   Bold Conquest   Steve Asmussen   17   $192,176
25   The Truth or Else    Kenny McPeek   11   $180,167
26   Metaboss   Jeff Bonde   10   $136,450
27   Firespike   Mike Maker   10   $51,816
28   Toasting Master   Dale Romans   5   $31,000
29   Task Force Glory   Mike Maker   5   $29,625
30   Cross the Line    Jerry Hollendorfer   4   $120,000
31   Another Lemon Drop   Phil Bauer   1   $25,500

What happened to all the other horses that were on this list?

There were as many as 51 horses and now there are 31...

Looks like 30 gets you in the gate as I thought...

So much for Mr. Z getting a rest. I guess he will head to the Derby as well.

Its a question if Bolo goes. Maybe the owners will opt for the Churchill track and hoping it plays to Bolo's liking.

It would be a shame if Made From Lucky does not get in.

[peeptoad]

All final preps have now been run and the horses within each tier are in some sort of vague hierarchical order (with amphibian comments):

1st tier
American Pharoah- looks solid, though he likely won't be my top pick due to probable price and remaining question marks
Frosted- if he continues improvement off last he will be right there. Would like to see him lay closer to pace, otherwise traffic looms
Dortmund- has done nothing wrong and is every bit as good as those above him. I question his relative closing pace and his ability to negotiate traffic effectively (which he will probably encounter)
Carpe Diem- solid, consistent, but appears to grind out the win more than some of the others. 3rd off the layoff will probably produce his best effort.
Upstart- recent fever puts his ranking as a bit of a question mark and his connections seem very cautious per interviews
Materiality- has obvious ability, but that Apollo is a big one I suspect it won't be broken in a year with so many other solid contenders


2nd tier
Firing Line- top of the 2nd tier. Main question for me is 10F. My suspicion is that 9F is about the limit and 8.5 more reasonable.
International Star- a clear cut below the top level, but consistent and game. Might be better at 9F and need to see how he trains at CD since all big wins came at FG.
Mubtaahij- lots of question marks due to the locale he ships in from. He still has only run at one dirt track, so the surface question remains. Don't think distance will be an issue, but he needs to show he can overcome adversity at the top level
Far Right- interesting contender who might be primed to peak after the break between last prep and the Southwest, still needs to run faster and again traffic problems loom with his running style
One Lucky Dane- his SA Derby effort was excellent all things considered, but really is a cut below and suspect 10F might be pushing it.
El Kabeir- 9F is about the cap and a flat mile probably more his game. Also not fast enough overall and the move to running from off the pace might create problems
Ami's Flatter- 10F may be no problem, but isn't fast enough to contend for more than a minor award
Danzig Moon- see Ami's Flatter comment


3rd tier
Stanford- could improve again for the Derby, but that still won't be enough
Tencendur- not fast enough and probably best going shorter- is improving though.
War Story- Internationl Star has his number and he is in tier 2. 'nuff said.
Bolo- probably better suited to turf, but could possibly round out the super given 10 panels
Itsaknockout- not fast enough, probably should not have been elevated in the FOY and he was exposed in the FL Derby
Ocho Ocho Ocho- wants no part of 10F and isn't fast enough anyway
Mr Z- will make it into the gate and likely be a pace presence, but he would be a shocker in the win circle

[Man o Taz]

I would add Keen Ice to the last tier. I think he could do really well if he gets in.

I still want to hear who your Commanding Curve is this year.

[peeptoad]

Keen Ice has 22 pts. which is not enough. I also dropped Madefromlucky who sits right above Keen on the points list. Either one could make the gate with a few defections.
Would have to think about my CC for this year, but maybe Far Right.

[Man o Taz]

Keen Ice has 22 pts. which is not enough. I also dropped Madefromlucky who sits right above Keen on the points list. Either one could make the gate with a few defections.
Would have to think about my CC for this year, but maybe Far Right.

Right. As much as I like Madefromlucky, I didn't ask for him to be added because I was disappointed with his performance in the Arkansas Derby. I was looking for more and I did not see it. I really thought he would be better than Far Right and was wrong.

Keen Ice, though, I think will get in and has the chops to make a difference. I didn't realize that the list had all 20 starters.

[Senator L]

I wonder which horse JR will wind up on? He seems to be riding all the winners.
Short video at the Bloodhorse with Castellano saying he doesn't have a mount :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

Early Derby pps courtesy of BRIS:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf

[Senator L]

I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.

[Man o Taz]

I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.

I am certain he will get one of the Pletcher mounts or maybe El Kabeir.

Saez is on Itsaknockout
Velazquez on Carpe Diem
Which leaves Materiality
Stanford is also a possibility if the owners want a change.
And then Madefromlucky may make it as well. 

Heading to the Derby - looks like Bolo is the only one who is not definite yet in the top 20 - but his owner is leaning toward going.

Which means Keen Ice and Frammento could be on the outside looking in...unless there are defections.

1    International Star    Mike Maker   171   $940,979
2  Dortmund    Bob Baffert   170   $1,230,000
3   Carpe Diem    Todd Pletcher   164   $1,470,000
4   American Pharoah   Bob Baffert   160   $1,410,000
5  Frosted   Kiaran McLaughlin   113   $776,200
6   Mubtaahij-IRE   Mike de Kock   100   $1,400,000
7   Materiality    Todd Pletcher   100   $632,028
8   El Kabeir   John Terranova II   95   $720,792
9   Upstart    Rick Violette, Jr.    76   $807,680
10   Far Right   Ron Moquette   62   $585,906
11   Itsaknockout    Todd Pletcher   60   $288,560
12   Firing Line    Simon Callaghan   58   $530,000
13   Danzig Moon   Mark Casse   45   $217,500
14   War Story    Tom Amoss   44   $195,000
15   Tencendur   George Weaver   41   $224,500
16   One Lucky Dane   Bob Baffert   40   $200,000
17   Stanford   Todd Pletcher   40   $151,400
18   Mr. Z    D. Wayne Lukas   34   $625,826
19   Ocho Ocho Ocho   Jim Cassidy   30   $760,250
20   Bolo   Carla Gaines   30   $214,980
21   Madefromlucky   Todd Pletcher   30   $200,000
22   Keen Ice   Dale Romans   22   $136,520
23   Frammento    Nick Zito   20   $92,800
24   Bold Conquest   Steve Asmussen   17   $192,176
25   The Truth or Else    Kenny McPeek   11   $180,167
26   Metaboss   Jeff Bonde   10   $136,450
27   Firespike   Mike Maker   10   $51,816
28   Toasting Master   Dale Romans   5   $31,000
29   Task Force Glory   Mike Maker   5   $29,625
30   Cross the Line    Jerry Hollendorfer   4   $120,000
31   Another Lemon Drop   Phil Bauer   1   $25,500