2015 Derby Point Standings and Schedule

[Man o Taz]

How do you feel about Lord Nelson in the Sunland Derby? I know you were hoping he would enter the Santa Anita Derby, but it could be a good thing to get him elsewhere.

He's the only stakes winner - though at 7 furlongs. 2nd place could also be enough to get him into the Derby.

I hope he can step up. Firing Line could be one of those horses with seconditis so I think this could be Lord Nelson's race.

[Senator L]

I still like him. He was stuck on the fence in the last and he was going
against Dortmund. Gets some class relief. His first race back he beat
Texas Red in 1:22 I think he bounced a little. As for breeding going a 1 1/8
I like Lord Nelson better than firing line. firing line had the lead in has last
2 but Dortmund out gamed him and that was at a 1 1/16th.
I'll play for prices in this one :chickendance:

[Man o Taz]

Do you think coming back in 2 weeks is an issue at all?

[Senator L]

Not in my mind

[Man o Taz]

I would, but I'll trust you and Mr. Baffert because I think you two know a bit more than I do. Thanks.

This is my race of the weekend. I really want Lord Nelson to show his quality.

[Catalina]

Per Bloodhorse, Baffert decided not to send Lord Nelson to the Sunland Derby.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90787/lord-nelson-ruled-out-of-sunland-derby

[Senator L]

 :-\that's not good

[The Tin Man]

Lord Nelson hasn't impressed me at all. In my opinion, no way he was beating Firing Line ... this being said, a 2nd place in that race was certainly possible, so that could have gotten him into The Derby ... but really, what's the point? He'd be trounced handily in The Derby by American Pharoah and Dortmund ... probably by Carpe Diem too.

Probably a good move by Baffert.

[peeptoad]

Lord Nelson hasn't impressed me either in relation to the Derby, specifically. He's 3-3 at sprint distances (and on both dirt and synth) and 0-3 (not even hitting the board) in routes.  Hopefully they are now pointing him to shorter races because that's where he seems to excel, at least right now (Derby Trial- Woody Stephens again, Bob?).

[Man o Taz]

I think in that article Baffert indicated they would send him somewhere else to get Derby points.

I agree that he has not impressed in route races, but I would still like to see him have another chance.

Maybe he points to the Louisiana Derby the following week at the Fairgrounds. Baffert sent Code West there a couple of years ago.

He used to send horses to the Wood Memorial, but he has not done that in a while.

I think Gulfstream plays a lot like Santa Anita, but I cannot recall his ever sending a horse there to run.

[peeptoad]

In my opinion (and for entertainment purposes only) here are three "tiers" of Derby contenders. This is how I see things right now at this precise moment, before the final preps have been run:


top tier or "elite" Derby contenders (doesn't mean they would be my top pick for the roses, but just based on prep performance so far)
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem

2nd tier (horses that either appear a cut below the very best right now, or horses that we just don't know enough about until their next race)
International Star
Firing Line
El Kabeir
Prospect Park
Far From Over
Bolo
Itsaknockout
Materiality
Far Right

3rd tier i.e. "the rest" (horses that would be huge long shots if the Derby was run this weekend, but still have chances to improve and step it up before the big day)
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Daredevil
Frosted
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
etc etc etc (could include really any horse in the 3rd tier including a number of horses running in this week's preps)

[Man o Taz]

In my opinion (and for entertainment purposes only) here are three "tiers" of Derby contenders. This is how I see things right now at this precise moment, before the final preps have been run:


top tier or "elite" Derby contenders (doesn't mean they would be my top pick for the roses, but just based on prep performance so far)
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem

2nd tier (horses that either appear a cut below the very best right now, or horses that we just don't know enough about until their next race)
International Star
Firing Line
El Kabeir
Prospect Park
Far From Over
Bolo
Itsaknockout
Materiality
Far Right
Made From Lucky


3rd tier i.e. "the rest" (horses that would be huge long shots if the Derby was run this weekend, but still have chances to improve and step it up before the big day)
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Daredevil
Frosted
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
Lord Nelson
etc etc etc (could include really any horse in the 3rd tier including a number of horses running in this week's preps)

This is excellent.

First, we have the Core 4, then the Fine 9 which I'll make the Zen 10, and then the Great 8 which I am going to increase to the Fine 9.

Baffert may have his 4th entry with One Lucky Dane scoring yesterday a nice win.

[peeptoad]

I forgot about Madefromlucky. He would probably be either a tier 2 or tier 3... probably 3 still since he's so lightly raced, but it's all subjective.

[Senator L]

I like this tiered way, probably a great way to set up your exotic
bets on derby day

[peeptoad]

Dubai Sky would prob. be in the 3rd tier... apparently he will be supplemented and his works at CD will determine if he goes.