Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

This is a very important list for me because I continue to hold to the notion that no horse will win the Kentucky Derby unless it has raced as a 2 year old. Of course, the other reality is that no multiple graded stakes winning 2 year old horse since Swale has won the Kentucky Derby since Swale in 1988 - I think. What a crap shoot. A dozen and then 5 Honorable Mentions and I could have done more. I also appear to be in a rut...between McLaughlin, Baffert and Pletcher is half of my derby list. Also, half of the top 12 are Cal-based horses. I think California with the dominance of I'll Have Another, California Chrome, Shared Belief, Hoppertunity and Bayern - has really shown itself to have growing dominance in the three year old ranks...I'll Have Another's year, Bodemeister and Paynter placing second in the the 3 Triple Crown races - so I think its much deserved.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs?
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Spring, 6.5 furlongs (10)

I think he has shown the most of this class with his late season wins. If American Pharoah could have run once late season he would have had this spot. Top and bottom he should be able to compete. He seems to have a lot of versatility. I also really like his breeding.

2. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs?
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

Well, he avoided the BC Juvenile curse which only Street Sense has managed to break by being scratched for the race. Hopefully, this bodes well for this son of Pioneer of the Nile. I guessed that Mr. Baffert will want to get him racing again early and target the Sham in order to have him peaking for the Derby given his lay off. We'll see.

3. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

Mr. McLaughlin's most precocious charge for 2015. Following in the footsteps of Cairo Prince who finished a close second to Honor Code in last year's edition of the Remsen Stakes, Frosted looked great. Hopefully some time off will give him a chance to build some muscle for a tough three year old campaign.

4. Blofeld (Quality Road by Elusive Quality by Gone West – Storm Minstrel by Storm Cat and Colonial Minstrel by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

I like this horse a lot. Adopting the name of a James Bond villain is great. I hope he stays healthy. I like his breeding with Storm Cat and Pleasant Colony on the bottom and being a grandson of Smarty Jones on top - if he has half the speed of his sire he'll be fast.

5. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 14
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He would be rated higher if he had won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile since he was the class of the race in my mind. He's still a solid colt and I believe he'll do well next year. The question is where he'll start? Fountain of Youth? Gotham Stakes. Increasingly this decision can carry the fate of the horse for the Kentucky Derby since its not just about graded stakes earnings any more.

6. Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: California Cup?
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

Well, last year's King Glorious winner won the Kentucky Derby. Is the King Glorious becoming one of the top Kentucky Derby prep races? LOL Before you laugh as well, his breeding is incredible. He is a great grandson of Northern Dancer through Danzig.   His sire's dam was by Santa Anita Handicap winner Lord At War. His dam's sire is in the Mr. Prospector line. His dam's dam is in the Northern Dancer/Somethingroyal (Secretariat's dam) Princequillo family. Needless to say I am a fan of the breeding.

7. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G2 San Vicente
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

This horse is moving forward. The big question is whether he can carry his top form to his three year old season. I liked his sire a lot and it would be nice to see him get a top Kentucky Derby contender.

8. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

Who knows what to make of Dortmund? Everyone has him high on their Derby list. I was confused by his first stakes race, the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. Perhaps the track plays slower than Del Mar and Santa Anita, and he'll like the Santa Anita surface better because folks had him as the best in the race by far, and then he barely wins. Perhaps its just his youth showing. Then again, Mr. Baffert always has so many top three year olds, this one may end up shipping to the Rebel Stakes or elsewhere.

9. Calculator (In Summation by Pull It Back –  Back to Basics by Alphabet Soup 14
Trainer: Peter Miller
Next Race: February 7, Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
1st G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

I guessed right that Mr. Miller wanted to get him back on the track soon as he is able for the G3 Sham Stakes. Impressive win. Folks will say - but who did he beat - and can he stretch out - but a 97 BSF with an easy win - makes this race impressive. More impressive in my book than El Kabeir's.

10. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 6
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: Rebel Stakes or Risen Star.
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

He has a win over the Churchill surface like Dortmund. This cannot be ignored. Hopefully he moves forward. No idea where he starts next, but I am thinking Oaklawn - though the LeComte could also feature for him. I read somewhere that Mr. Asmussen was aiming for 2 stake preps only for the Derby.

11. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

I assume he's been out with an injury. If he heals up I would think the goal would be to get him back to the track soon. If he stays north, that could be the Jerome or Withers, but the fact that he is not working probably means something later rather than sooner.

12. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 6
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G3 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

Samraat II? Maybe. He's been in the money in three stakes including the BC Juvenile. If he moves forward perhaps next year they'll be asking "the next Upstart".

Honorable Mentions
Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Jerome, 8 furlongs
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

We'll see. This is Mr. McLaughlin's other top three year old horse.

Bayerd (Speightstown by - Cherokee Jewel by Cherokee Run)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: Smarty Jones?, 8 furlongs
Springboard Mile Stakes

This Asmussen trained horse bested Frosted at Saratoga. Might be one to watch.

Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold) 1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

I wonder if he's a late bloomer or perhaps better suited to shorter distances. One of Pulpits last crops.

Eagle (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails - Sea Gull by Mineshaft) 2
Trainer: Neil Howard
Next Race: G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs
3rd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs  (2)

The name is attractive, but what got me was his owner - Mr. Farrish. Same silks as Honor Code.

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro by El Prado - Cocoa Beach by Doneraille Court by Seattle Slew) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: Withers, 8 furlongs?
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (4)

I was attracted to this horse for one reason - his dam. I really liked Cocoa Beach as a race horse.

Lucky Player (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Janetstickettocats by Strom Cat) 10
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8 furlongs or G2 Rebel Stakes
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)

This horse is here for one reason - his sire. Lookin At Lucky is one of  my favorites and I hope his progeny do very well. This horse is probably going to be treated like Bond Conquest and go for 2 starts before the Derby. The Bluegrass Stakes might be a possibility.

Pretty soon I'm going to have a Derby Top 50....

[Man o Taz]

Nice win by El Kabeir in the Jerome.

He is the first to show that he can carry his 2 year old form into the 3 year old season - becoming the new points leader

American Pharoah will begin his works later this month. I wonder if that will allow him to have more than 2 works before the Derby.

Dortmund is staying sharp turning in his 1st work since the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity 48 and change.

It will be interesting to see how many preps these horses get before the Kentucky Derby. 

[Man o Taz]

HRN has a list of 20 potential derby starters from NY...wow.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/NYState/New_York_s_2015_Kentucky_Derby_Contenders_II_The_Jerome_123

1) Carpe Diem
2) Blofeld
3) Imperia
4) Competitve Edge
5) Frosted
6) El Kabeir
7) Ocean Knight
Upstart
9) Big Trouble
10) Classy Class

I've got 5 of them in my Derby dozen...which means I have 6 Cal-based - and 1 midwest -based with Steve Asmussen's Bold Conquest.

Will a Cal-based horse make it 3 out of 4 Kentucky Derby's this year after I'll Have Another and California Chrome?
Could the Santa Anita hit 3 out of 4 Kentucky Derby winners using it as a last prep? Before the above two - Giacomo was the last Santa Anita Derby  participant to win the Kentucky Derby in 2005. 
Will the Wood Memorial finally factor into a Derby winner? Its been 14 years since a Wood Memorial winner won the Kentucky Derby (11 since an entrant in the race won it (Funny Cide).
The Florida Derby had the winners in 2006 (Barbaro) and 2008 (Big Brown) and 2013 (Orb) - so it will be interesting to see if the winner of that race wins the Kentucky Derby.
The Arkansas Derby in 2004 had Smarty Jones and 2005 Afleet Alex and in 2010 had Super Saver a second place AD finisher.

It seems to move in cycles - though the last winner of the Bluegrass Stakes to win the Derby was in 1991 when Strike the Gold won the race - Street Sense ran in the race and won in 2007.   

[Man o Taz]

Is this horse Runhappy a freak or the real deal or both?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mE0jGV45Ak

This maiden is nothing short of incredible. He is like a missile.

Then he blows the turn at the top of the stretch and still wins by 4 or 5.

He reminds me of one horse who I really liked - Eightyfiveinafifty.

[Raven]

Didn't Eightyfiveinafifty go through the outer rail once?
That horse looked to be very green!!
Would he be able to do that on dirt?

[Man o Taz]

Yes Eightyfiveinafifty did that. It was very sad. I understand that he is breeding in Mexico now so hopefully he has found his niche. I did get to see him win the Bayshore.

Do not know how he will take to dirt...but wow if he does.

[Man o Taz]

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs?
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Spring, 6.5 furlongs (10)

2. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

3. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 8
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

A decent performance. Hopefully a bit rusty and he'll shake it off in his next race.

4. Blofeld (Quality Road by Elusive Quality by Gone West – Storm Minstrel by Storm Cat and Colonial Minstrel by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

5. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 14
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

6. Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes
4th California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

Hmm. Not the best race for him. I do not know what the problem was. He just did not seem prepared for the race. Was it tougher competition? I do not know. May be dropped to honorable mention.

7. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G2 San Vicente
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

8. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

9. Calculator (In Summation by Pull It Back –  Back to Basics by Alphabet Soup 14
Trainer: Peter Miller
Next Race: February 7, Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
1st G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

10. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 6
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes or G2 Risen Star.
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

11. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

12. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 16
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
1st G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

This was a strong field - probably the strongest prep race so far this year - though some might suggest that Smarty Jones with Mr. Z and friends was. He appears to be moving forward and could be a factor in the Derby given that one more race will give him enough points. The 105 BSF bears this out.

Honorable Mentions
Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Bayerd (Speightstown by - Cherokee Jewel by Cherokee Run) 4
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes or G2 Rebel Stakes?
2nd Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Springboard Mile Stakes

Wow. He is the real deal since that was a nice field.

Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold) 1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Risen Star?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

Eagle (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails - Sea Gull by Mineshaft) 2
Trainer: Neil Howard
Next Race: G2 Risen Star Stakes
7th G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs
3rd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs  (2)

He just may not have liked the track.

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro by El Prado - Cocoa Beach by Doneraille Court by Seattle Slew) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: Withers, 8 furlongs?
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Lucky Player (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Janetstickettocats by Strom Cat) 10
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8 furlongs or G2 Rebel Stakes
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)

[Man o Taz]

Here is the first Derby Dozen I have seen this year...it seems each year is a bit earlier.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/01/27/derby-dozen-january-26-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

1. Texas Red
2. American Pharoah
3. Calculator
4. Dortmund
5. Upstart
6. Firing Line
7. Bolo
8. Carpe Diem
9. Competitive Edge
10. Imperia
11. Daredevil
12. Ocho Ocho Ocho

I do have 8 out of 12. Interesting he did not have Frosted.

[Man o Taz]

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs?
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

2. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

His first work back seemed strong. A good sign..

3. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 8
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

4. Blofeld (Quality Road by Elusive Quality by Gone West – Storm Minstrel by Storm Cat and Colonial Minstrel by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

5. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 14
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs? Eventually the Bluegrass Stakes?
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

6. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (21) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile

Added him because he just seems to be doing everything right. We'll see if he really enters the Withers this week or skips it for the Gotham so that he can be sharper going into the Wood Memorial which it would seem is his goal.

7. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G2 Risen Star
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlolngs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

I had no problem with this result. Some suggested that without pace to run at he was a one dimensional horse. That may be the case, but he is still talented. Its been over 2 months since his last race. He needed it. We'll look for him to move up in his next start.

8. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

9. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 16
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
1st G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

9. Calculator (In Summation by Pull It Back –  Back to Basics by Alphabet Soup 14
Trainer: Peter Miller
Next Race: February 7, Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
1st G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

Too bad about the injury. Look forward to seeing him race in the summer.

10. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 6
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes or G2 Risen Star.
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

11. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

12. Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro by El Prado - Cocoa Beach by Doneraille Court by Seattle Slew) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Honorable Mentions
Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Bayerd (Speightstown by - Cherokee Jewel by Cherokee Run) 4
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes or G2 Rebel Stakes?
2nd Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Springboard Mile Stakes

Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold) 1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe/Louisiana Derby?
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

I do not know if he is better going short, or if he can stretch out. If I felt more comfortable, I would have him added to the list. The next race will tell a lot since he will be going longer against solid company - though Texas Red was quality competition.

Eagle (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails - Sea Gull by Mineshaft) 2
Trainer: Neil Howard
Next Race: G2 Risen Star Stakes
7th G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs
3rd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs  (2)

Lucky Player (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Janetstickettocats by Strom Cat) 10
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8 furlongs or G2 Rebel Stakes
8th Smarty Jones, 8 furlongs
7th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
8th G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs

Probably the first one off my list.

Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes
4th California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

I hated to drop him, but I just cannot account for his performance.

[peeptoad]

What are the bold numbers after the pedigree for?

[Man o Taz]

The total points they have accumulated.

[peeptoad]

Oh duh. Thanks

[Man o Taz]

Here's Steve's latest:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/02/03/steve-haskin-s-derby-dozen-for-february-3-2015.aspx

1. Texas Red
2. American Pharoah
3. Upstart
4. Dortmund
5.  Firing Line
6. Carpe Diem
7. Lord Nelson
8. Imperia
9. Ocean Knight
10. Competitive Edge
11. Ocho Ocho Ocho
12. International Star

Its a strong list. I have El Kabeir instead of International Star who will be added to my Honorable Mention list being a Fupeg son along with Great War soon. I loved FuPeg's other son Premier Pegasus.

Oh duh. Thanks

As wacky as some of my parentheticals can be one never knows... ;-)

[Man o Taz]

And Steve's new list...

1. Texas Red
2. American Pharoah
3. Upstart
4. Dortmund
5. Carpe Diem
6. Firing Line
7. Far From Over
8. Lord Nelson
9. Imperia
10. Ocean Knight
11. Ocho Ocho Ocho
12. Frosted

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/02/10/derby-dozen-february-10-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

[Man o Taz]

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

Had a very sharp work.

2. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

His second work back seemed strong.

3. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 8
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

Another horse with a good work that was described as breathtaking. Match-up with Upstart could be special.


4. Blofeld (Quality Road by Elusive Quality by Gone West – Storm Minstrel by Storm Cat and Colonial Minstrel by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs


He is not yet galloping while he could still make the Derby, that seems like a long shot.

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 14
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

5. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 20
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I think he is a horse to watch. I think Bob Baffert has his best shot in years to win the Kentucky Derby with he and A.P.

6. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby/G1 Arkansas Derby
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlolngs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

I had no problem with this result. However, the injury gives me pause. This will mean he would enter the Derby off of 2 rather than 3 2015 preps which is not what the connections planned.
7. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 16
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

His BSF is the highest this year for a three year old. He is doing everything right. The only knock is that he may be peaking too soon. His trainer's comments about not needing another race  besdes the San Vicente were silly and I disregarded them as more of a jab against the point system than credible.

8. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

9. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 6
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

10. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

I was about to jump off his bandwagon, but will give him until his first start which had better be soon. If he goes in the Swale, I'll have to take him off my list since he will not have two two-turn preps for the Derby. Now, one would think that could also disqualify Texas Red, but it doesn't because he at least won at 8.5 furlongs in the BC Juvenile, whereas CE has yet to win at a distance of more than 7 furlongs.

11. Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro by El Prado - Cocoa Beach by Doneraille Court by Seattle Slew) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Much easier with Texas Red out. No more excuses. Has to be in the winner's circle.

12. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (25) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile

I do not like to drop him, but he had no excuses in the Withers. I wonder if he can get much more than 8 furlongs.

Honorable Mentions
Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

His first race back since the Remsen. It will be interesting to see if Ocean Knight heads to the Gotham or not.

Bayerd (Speightstown by - Cherokee Jewel by Cherokee Run) 4
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Springboard Mile Stakes

Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold) 1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

I do not know if he is better going short, or if he can stretch out. If I felt more comfortable, I would have him added to the list. The next race will tell a lot since he will be going longer against solid company - though Texas Red was quality competition. He needs points, points points.

Eagle (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails - Sea Gull by Mineshaft) 2
Trainer: Neil Howard
Next Race: G2 Risen Star Stakes
7th G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs
3rd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs  (2)

No excuses.

Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

This will be his chance to shine.