Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

LOL.

Me too. I thought Madefromlucky would be a strong 2nd.

AP was the class of the race. The question is whether or not he is the class of his generation.

I know you like Dortmund and curtis may be right about how the Derby sets up.

I understand his concern regarding American Pharoah's durability for a Triple Crown run, but I still believe he is the best chance for that to happen.

I think Dortmund and AP ar both suspect at 12 furlongs just as they are suspect at 10. Dortmund's sire won the Derby against a weak field. Pioneer of the Nile was 2nd against a weak field since people give Mine The Bird little respect despite his strong finish's in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. I do not think Dortmund will like Pimlico at all.

But we have to get through the Derby first. I expect both horses to be well off the pace in the Derby. 

[curtis]

LOL.

Me too. I thought Madefromlucky would be a strong 2nd.

AP was the class of the race. The question is whether or not he is the class of his generation.

I know you like Dortmund and curtis may be right about how the Derby sets up.

I understand his concern regarding American Pharoah's durability for a Triple Crown run, but I still believe he is the best chance for that to happen.

I think Dortmund and AP ar both suspect at 12 furlongs just as they are suspect at 10. Dortmund's sire won the Derby against a weak field. Pioneer of the Nile was 2nd against a weak field since people give Mine The Bird little respect despite his strong finish's in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. I do not think Dortmund will like Pimlico at all.

But we have to get through the Derby first. I expect both horses to be well off the pace in the Derby.

I'm curious as to your reason for this opinion?  His sire won in dominating fashion there, his stable predecessor--who was at least as big as he is--won just as impressively there in 2001.  Dortmund won a Gr1 at Los Alamitos which has bullring turns, tighter than probably any he'll ever encounter.  He runs forwardly placed--something I believe is overblown in terms of success at Pimlico, but shouldn't be to his detriment.  Did I miss something about an allergy to crab?  Why do you think Pimlico will be a problem?

[Man o Taz]

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60

Like Dortmund's Santa Anita Derby, not much to see here. AP put the field away. Some have balked at the time as not being as fast as the Oaklawn Handicap, but Haskin dispensed with this critique noting that AP carried six more pounds than Race Day who was in an all out drive, and that AP might have won by 15 if his jockey had not wrapped him up before the wire. His 4th triple digit BSF.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 170
Trainer: Bob Baffert

What's not to like about this horse. He just keeps on winning. I like his will to win. You cannot teach that.

3.  Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 164
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

I would love to rank him higher, but the fact that he has not run faster is worrying. He is one classy horse who, like American Pharoah, does everything so easily.

4. Mubtaahij (Dubawi by Dubai Millenium by Seeking The Gold - Pennegale by Pennekamp) 100

Can he do it? I really do not know. I may drop him down worrying about the competition. I usually rank the UAE Derby winner highly in my Derby Dozen given that distance is a key issue. There is no doubt he did not face as good a field in Dubai as in some of the other American prep races, but he looked very impressive winning. 

5. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 113
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Since it does not seem like Maftool will be making the trip, this is Godolphin's sole entry.

This son of Tapit comes into the race well. Tapit son won the Belmont Stakes last year. Will it be the Derby this year?

6. International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (171)
Trainer: Michael Maker

One of the few closers he just finds the wire. He could be this year's winner if the race falls apart.

7. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (95) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

What to do with El Kabeir? Who is going to ride him? What ride would be best for him? If Borel rides him we know its going to be a go to the lead type of a Derby which I think would give him no chance to win with all the potential speed in the race. I think Lopez would provide a more patient ride. I know people think Lopez should be taken off because of the Wood performance. We'll see.

8. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 76
Trainer: Richard Violette

Missing the work is a big issue. He is well conditioned dealing with the Gulfstream Park track, but this is not the time you want a problem to crop up. Hopefully he can get back on track.

9. Far Right (Notional by In Excess - Zindi by Vindication by Seattle Slew)  62
Trainer: Ronald Moquett

If the performance in the Arkansas Derby winner was indeed by the Derby favorite, 2nd place should be worth something even if its 8 lengths removed from the winner.

10. Firing Line (Line of David by Lionheart - Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold) 58
Trainer: Simon Callaghan

Will the long lay off make him rusty for the Derby or will he be like Animal Kingdom? We'll see.

11. Madefromlucky (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Home From Oz by Pulpit) 20
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

12. Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (60)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Hoping his Florida Derby was a fluke performance. Like his breeding.

[Man o Taz]

I'm curious as to your reason for this opinion?  His sire won in dominating fashion there, his stable predecessor--who was at least as big as he is--won just as impressively there in 2001.  Dortmund won a Gr1 at Los Alamitos which has bullring turns, tighter than probably any he'll ever encounter.  He runs forwardly placed--something I believe is overblown in terms of success at Pimlico, but shouldn't be to his detriment.  Did I miss something about an allergy to crab?  Why do you think Pimlico will be a problem?

I just think the turns will impact him being such a big horse. I know he is very athletic and light on his feet for such a big horse, but maneuverability is important and can make the difference.

Its one thing entering a race where the competition is one or two quality horses and having to maneuver like at Los Alamitos, and another taking on better quality horses in a deeper field with tight turns.

Just my opinion.

My hope though is that I do not see him at Pimlico, but rather Belmont since I want American Pharoah to win the Derby and if he does, I am hoping Dortmund skips the Preakness for the Belmont Stakes. ;-)

We shall see.

[Man o Taz]

Haskn's latest

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/04/14/derby-dozen-april-14-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

[Man o Taz]

Well, with One Lucky Dane's defection all 12 of mine could at least make the gate.

The irony is that I had OLD as my 13th horse.

[ElPrado]

From what I have read, Pimlico's not as tight as is so often said. There really is not much difference between CD and Pimlico.

[Man o Taz]

I have sat at the Clubhouse Turn since 2006 at Pimlico and I have sat at the Clubhouse Turn at Churchill Downs for the Breeders Cup and there is a heck of a big difference just visually speaking between the two. The Preakness turns seem much narrower. A big horse, no matter how fleet footed I think could have a problem with navigating such turns with a competitive field. Its just my opinion.

Here is some good for thought:

Churchill Downs

One mile oval with a one mile chute
Homestretch: 80 feet wide
Backstretch: 80 feet wide
4% banking on turns
Distance from six-furlong start to first turn: 1,401 feet
Distance from seven-furlong start to first turn: 2,085 feet
Distance from 1 mile start to first turn: 2,745 feet
Distance from 11⁄16 mile start to first turn: 485 feet
Distance from 11⁄8 mile start to first turn: 815 feet
Distance from 11⁄4 mile start to first turn: 1,463 feet
Distance from 13⁄4 mile start to first turn: 1,401 fee
Distance from final turn to finish line: 1,235 feet

Pimlico
Track Surface
Dirt:

1 mile loam oval; Six-furlong and 1 1/4 mile chutes
Length of stretch from last turn to finish line = 1,152 feet
Track = 70 feet wide.

So you can see the Pimlico track has 10 feet less space which accounts for its reputation for having tighter turns. It also has a shorter stretch by 83 feet.

I know folks at DRF have written articles about the track not being tight turned showing the dimensions of the ovals as being the same, but that is not where the tightness comes in. The tightness comes in in trying to race around those turns with 10 feet less width to the outer rail. At Pimlico the outer rail is 14% closer than it is at Churchill Downs. The stretch as noted is also 83 feet shorter. Thus, a horse rounding the final turn has 10 less feet to maneuver in width wise and 83 feet less of a distance to do it in to win the race if it is closing. It is a challenge. For a big horse like Dortmund navigating in a tight field I believe it could adversely impact him.

Here is an excerpt from the Baltimore Sun article...
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2002-05-18/sports/0205180008_1_pimlico-preakness-kentucky-derby

This myth of the Preakness being a race for speedsters apparently originated in 1957 after Bold Ruler, a speed horse who later sired Secretariat, finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. According to Chick Lang, Bold Ruler's jockey, Eddie Arcaro, said after the Derby that his horse would perform better "when we get to Pimlico with those tight turns."

Lang worked at Pimlico from 1959 to 1987, serving as general manager for 21 years and earning the nickname "Mr. Preakness." He became close friends with Arcaro, who captured six Preaknesses, more than any other jockey.

"Like with E.F. Hutton, when Eddie Arcaro spoke, everybody listened," Lang says. "And you know, people are still saying it. Once they get that set in their mind you're not going to change them."

Lang says that if Arcaro, who died in 1997, told him once he told him a dozen times: "Chick, get people to stop saying that. I never should have used the word `tighter.' What I meant was `narrower.' The turns at Pimlico are narrower than they are at Churchill Downs."

[Dusty]

I have sat at the Clubhouse Turn since 2006 at Pimlico and I have sat at the Clubhouse Turn at Churchill Downs for the Breeders Cup and there is a heck of a big difference just visually speaking between the two. The Preakness turns seem much narrower. A big horse, no matter how fleet footed I think could have a problem with navigating such turns with a competitive field. Its just my opinion.

Here is some good for thought:

Churchill Downs

One mile oval with a one mile chute
Homestretch: 80 feet wide
Backstretch: 80 feet wide
4% banking on turns
Distance from six-furlong start to first turn: 1,401 feet
Distance from seven-furlong start to first turn: 2,085 feet
Distance from 1 mile start to first turn: 2,745 feet
Distance from 11⁄16 mile start to first turn: 485 feet
Distance from 11⁄8 mile start to first turn: 815 feet
Distance from 11⁄4 mile start to first turn: 1,463 feet
Distance from 13⁄4 mile start to first turn: 1,401 fee
Distance from final turn to finish line: 1,235 feet

Pimlico
Track Surface
Dirt:

1 mile loam oval; Six-furlong and 1 1/4 mile chutes
Length of stretch from last turn to finish line = 1,152 feet
Track = 70 feet wide.

So you can see the Pimlico track has 10 feet less space which accounts for its reputation for having tighter turns. It also has a shorter stretch by 83 feet.

I know folks at DRF have written articles about the track not being tight turned showing the dimensions of the ovals as being the same, but that is not where the tightness comes in. The tightness comes in in trying to race around those turns with 10 feet less width to the outer rail. At Pimlico the outer rail is 14% closer than it is at Churchill Downs. The stretch as noted is also 83 feet shorter. Thus, a horse rounding the final turn has 10 less feet to maneuver in width wise and 83 feet less of a distance to do it in to win the race if it is closing. It is a challenge. For a big horse like Dortmund navigating in a tight field I believe it could adversely impact him.

Here is an excerpt from the Baltimore Sun article...
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2002-05-18/sports/0205180008_1_pimlico-preakness-kentucky-derby

This myth of the Preakness being a race for speedsters apparently originated in 1957 after Bold Ruler, a speed horse who later sired Secretariat, finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. According to Chick Lang, Bold Ruler's jockey, Eddie Arcaro, said after the Derby that his horse would perform better "when we get to Pimlico with those tight turns."

Lang worked at Pimlico from 1959 to 1987, serving as general manager for 21 years and earning the nickname "Mr. Preakness." He became close friends with Arcaro, who captured six Preaknesses, more than any other jockey.

"Like with E.F. Hutton, when Eddie Arcaro spoke, everybody listened," Lang says. "And you know, people are still saying it. Once they get that set in their mind you're not going to change them."

Lang says that if Arcaro, who died in 1997, told him once he told him a dozen times: "Chick, get people to stop saying that. I never should have used the word `tighter.' What I meant was `narrower.' The turns at Pimlico are narrower than they are at Churchill Downs."

EXCELLENT - and spot on!

[Dusty]

....Anticipating your updated list !

[Man o Taz]

Sorry - out on business no chance to post Dusty. :-(

[Man o Taz]

Ocho at #1 eh, Taz? Very cool.

I still have Pharoah at #1, if he makes it ... but if not, Ocho would likely be my #1 if he impresses once again in The San Felipe.

Sure would like to see Punctuate run another race at some point in his life. His debut was very impressive.

My eye is on Power Jam now too. His debut was quite impressive.

Any word on Indianapolis?