Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

Started by Man o Taz, December 22, 2014, 12:19:33 PM

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Man o Taz

And Steve's latest  list...

1. American Pharoah
2. Upstart
3. Carpe Diem
4. Dortmund
5. Texas Red
6. Firing Line
7. Far From Over
8. Lord Nelson
9. Imperia
10. Ocean Knight
11. Ocho Ocho Ocho
12. Frosted

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/02/17/steve-haskin-s-derby-dozen-for-february-17-2015.aspx
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

Does anybody else have a Derby Dozen or Top Ten yet?
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

peeptoad

No since I find it a rather difficult exercise to keep re-categorizing a list every few days when horses either run poorly, get injured, etc. My list-making efforts generally go to film when I know what I've seen and have an opinion on it that's not likely to change unless I happen to re-watch something years later.

Since you asked and I'm on my lunch break here are a few in no particular order. I'm not real excited by any of these Derby prospects yet (same as every year- call me when it's March 28th):

Frosted
Upstart
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
International Star
Ocean Knight
Imperia

Senator L

I don't have the diligence for lists but I do find myself being a fan of certain horses. Sometimes this
starts when they are two and sometimes I see them in a race and end up becoming a fan.
Dortmund 4 for 4 gutted out last win
Imperia finished 2nd last year in the Gr 2 Ken Jcky club so he can dirt. Loved his turf races
Lord Nelson - beat Texas Red and stayed healthy
Upstart - Liked him last year too
Ocho Ocho Ocho game as they come. Great win at Delta Downs
My sleeper horse is Tiznow RJ. He looks so young, if he can keep running well and get
in the gate for the derby I think he'll end up making some noise.

The Tin Man

I've placed 2 Kentucky Derby future bets ...

American Pharoah and Ocho Ocho Ocho.

Anyone else have any going? If not, who would you place a hypothetical future bet on if you could only bet 2?

peeptoad

I have futures on Eagle and Imperia from pool 1, and of course Eagle is now out with an injury.
:-X

The only other future I ever placed was Pioneer of the Nile at 20/1 and he managed 2nd. I probably won't get closer than that.

Senator L

I did future bets, this time I did exacta's. I figure if I'm lucky enough to hit something I might
as well swing for the fences. Like Yogi says "baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" :celebrate:

                                      , Race 2, $2.00 EXA 5 / 19      $2.00   
   Bet   Derby Futures, Race 2, $10.00 EXA 5 / 16      $10.00   
   Bet   Derby Futures, Race 2, $1.00 EXA 5,19,21,23,24 / 11      $5.00   
   Bet   Derby Futures, Race 2, $4.00 EXA 11 / 5,19,21,23,24      $20.00   
The 11 is Imperia and the 5 is Dortmund
I don't mind this bet, as long as they stay healthy should have some derby action locked up
come the big day

Raven

This is my second time ever with a future bet.
The first one was Orb at 17/1
This time is Upstart at 12/1
call no man happy till he dies. ~SOLON~

Senator L

Nice price on Upstart :chickendance:

The Tin Man

Anyone know when the next Kentucky Derby pool is?

Might want to add bets on Power Jam or Call Back.

Senator L

Next future pool is Feb 27 - Mar 1
If these horses are flying under the radar they will be grouped with the mutual pool
making them massive underlays. It's better to find a site with KY Derby odds
Power Jam is currently 85-1 and a new entry. I couldn't find Call Back
Here is the link:
http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2015_Derby-Wynn_2-19.pdf

Here is the link to the pari-mutual wager

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager

peeptoad

I hope they put Imperia back on turf... another year with no future wager.

Man o Taz

Quote from: peeptoad on February 18, 2015, 09:19:58 AM
No since I find it a rather difficult exercise to keep re-categorizing a list every few days when horses either run poorly, get injured, etc. My list-making efforts generally go to film when I know what I've seen and have an opinion on it that's not likely to change unless I happen to re-watch something years later.

Since you asked and I'm on my lunch break here are a few in no particular order. I'm not real excited by any of these Derby prospects yet (same as every year- call me when it's March 28th):

Frosted
Upstart
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
International Star
Ocean Knight
Imperia

A very good start. I think they all will at least make it to the race and the favorite is probably among them.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

He so far has been able to do it all. He is working well and seems on target for the San Felipe.

2. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 10
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

Time is getting closer for him to show us what he has. I do not fault 2 starts for him. He had a full two year old season. If he can not earn enough points in two races, then he should not be in the Derby. Have to trust Bob Baffert.

3. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 36
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

He was robbed of the victory in the Fountain of Youth. There is no way Itsaknockout had any chance of getting by him. Itsaknockout makes an honorable mention because I love him damsire.

His next race will be very interesting. Some question whether he can get the 10 furlong distance, but Flat Out had not problem, so why should he?

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 14
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He is working sharply and this weekend we'll see just how rusty he is.

5. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 20
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He needs to prove just how good the California Derby contingent is. He has bested Firing Line, but how good is Firing Line?

6. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby/G1 Arkansas Derby
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlolngs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

Can he win the Kentucky Derby off of a single route start? We'll find out. I hope he can get back to training soon because he seems one of the more talented of his geneation.

7.  Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

What to do with Frosted? Had to drop him some. The track was tiring. Gulfstream Park overcompensated. Frosted may have won had this been the same track he ran over on for the Holy Bull.

8. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

The Gotham will tell a lot. He is bred for distance so that should not be the issue. Does he have the speed?

9. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 7
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

He made his first start and appeared to be closing well. He needs to move forward.

10. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

He's still here waiting for the 1st start.

11. Ocean Knight (Curlin by Smart Strike - Ocean by Stormy Atlantic by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro by El Prado - Cocoa Beach by Doneraille Court by Seattle Slew) 4
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (4)


Probably better suited for turf.

12. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (25
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile

Honorable Mentions

Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold) 1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (71)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

Have to mention this son of FuPeg at this point. He is really moving forward.

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 3
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Tough Gotham contest expected. 

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew)
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

Well, he's back to try dirt. We'll see if he can do as well as some of his peers like Ocho, Ocho, Ocho  in making the transition.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (50)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward.

Bayerd (Speightstown by - Cherokee Jewel by Cherokee Run) 4
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Springboard Mile Stakes


It was a nice dream while it lasted.

Eagle (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails - Sea Gull by Mineshaft) 2
Trainer: Neil Howard
Next Race: G2 Risen Star Stakes
7th G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8 furlongs
3rd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs  (2)


Time to move on. Hope to add him back.

Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

This will be his last chance to shine.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

The Tin Man

Ocho at #1 eh, Taz? Very cool.

I still have Pharoah at #1, if he makes it ... but if not, Ocho would likely be my #1 if he impresses once again in The San Felipe.

Sure would like to see Punctuate run another race at some point in his life. His debut was very impressive.

My eye is on Power Jam now too. His debut was quite impressive.

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