Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

Upstart is going to the FL Derby.

Yes. Very disappointed, but I understand with Khozan being out and the weather still being unpredictable he should at least get second points.

First he's gone to NY and then he 's back in FL. 

[Man o Taz]

I spoke with Jim Cassidy at Clocjer's Sunday morning ... he said Ocho got a bunch of cuts and scratches out of the gate on Saturday ... so he said that race us a throw out.

Nothing major though. Damn shame, as I was really looking forward to his race.

That is good to hear. His performance seemed totally out of character. I was wondering if he just did not carry his 2 year old form forward. Seemed bizarre given how well he had been training.

[Man o Taz]

And Steve's March 10th edition...

1. American Pharoah
2. Dortmund
3. Carpe Diem
4. Upstart
5. Bolo
6. Firing Line
7. Prospect Park
8. Texas Red
9. Far From Over
10. Itsaknockout
11. International Star
12. El Kabeir

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/03/10/derby-dozen-march-10-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

[The Tin Man]

Well ... The 'ol future bet on American Pharoah continues to look really good ... just wish I'd have had more money to invest in it at the time ... got 10-1 or 12-1 on him, I believe.

[Man o Taz]

Indeed, it does.

He looks like the real deal.

Another son of Pioneer of the Nile, Cairo Prince, was one of my early Derby choices last year before Chrome was on my radar.

I like the fact that he had to race on an off track. Did not like the shoe issue because it could have hurt him, but he overcame that as well.

Wow.

Guess I'll keep him on top.

Glad to see Made From Lucky doing well, too.

[Man o Taz]

A solid performance by American Pharoah.

Was it dominating? Maybe - but I'd like to see his next race against a stronger field.

Add Far Right to the mix and let's see Madefromlucky step up.

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

He stays on top.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 70
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 Furlongs (50)
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He answered the one question I had about him - could he show that he can best other horses besides Firing Line and Mr. Z. A strong field in the San Felipe.

3. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 36
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

FLa Derby

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 64
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs.
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

5. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
7th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

He had some rust to shake off. Let's see how far he moves up his next outing.

I do not think he liked the Santa Anita surface. He was tight early and never seemed to get comfortable. I would be interested to hear what Mike Smith had to say.

6. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I did not like skipping the Gotham. He is mature beyond his experience, but I question his fitness for the Derby. Can he do it? Maybe. However, he will not be as fit as horses like Dortmund, Upstart, International Star, and El Kabeir.

Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby/G1 Arkansas Derby
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlolngs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

He's back. We'll see what that really means on down the road, but with my scoring of points he probably only needs a 4th place finish to make it into the Derby. That would give him 2 points more than the 20 point holders. At this stage, he would be a shoe in unless a lot of new entrants find success.

Good to see they are doing right by Texas Red.

I would say Firing Line will be the favorite and perhaps win the Sunland Derby. Frankly, some of the Santa Anita Derby horses should head there like Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson or Prospect Park.

The Spiral will likely be won by Royal Son  or Imperia.

And then we have the big races.

7. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 17
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Well, slowly but surely he is getting the points. However, the connections want to see more before they enter him in the Derby.

8. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (75) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
2nd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile  (1)

Bring on Far From Over - though he need not win the Wood to be in the Derby. So Wood may just be for a freshening.

9. Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold)6
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G3 Sunalnd Derby y, 9 furlongs
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs (5)
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

He needs points, points, points.

No one to blame for the performance in this last race.

10.  Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

Glad to hear he is targeting the Wood Memorial. A 2nd or 3rd should get him into the Derby. I wonder if Ocean Knight will be there too or head to the Bluegrass Stakes.

11.International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (71)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

Have to mention this son of FuPeg at this point. He is really moving forward.

12. Madefromlucky (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Home From Oz by Pulpit) 20
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I really like this horse. The Arkansas Derby could be quite a test if it features a rehabbed Texas Red, Made From Lucky, Bold Conquest, and The Truth Or Elder with American Pharoah. Wow.

Honorable Mentions

Firing Line (Line of David by Lionheart - Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold) 58
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Sunland Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs(4)

Ocean Knight (Curlin by Smart Strike - Ocean by Stormy Atlantic by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs

Well, this was his surface and he through in a clunker. That happens. We'll see how he does next outing, but he has 0 Derby points.

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
3rd G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Can he move forward enough his next outing to make it into the Derby field?A 4th place finish would likely do it.

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew) 10
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

He finished third so either he hated the dirt and still ran well or he had no problem with it. Can he move forward in a crowded and strong California-based Derby crop?

He seemed like he had a ton of run in him and that dirt was no problem at all.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (50)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward. Will there be anyone in the Florida Derby to take him on?

[Senator L]

I think Lord Nelson is running this weekend in the Sunland Derby

[afleetphil]

Baffert is loaded with American Pharoah and Dortmund. Still hoping that Texas Red gets in there. The Derby picture is starting to take shape.

[Senator L]

One horse who doesn't seem to get much love is El Kabeir
Last future wager pool he was almost 50-1
and he's been showing up at every dance

[Man o Taz]

Baffert is loaded with American Pharoah and Dortmund. Still hoping that Texas Red gets in there. The Derby picture is starting to take shape.

Just announced he is off the derby trail.

[Man o Taz]

One horse who doesn't seem to get much love is El Kabeir
Last future wager pool he was almost 50-1
and he's been showing up at every dance

People just think he isn't good enough - but he's a gutsy horse that when he brings his "A" game can be competitive with almost anyone and coming from behind last race gave him a whole different look. The big test will be the Wood - BUT he does not have to win that...it should be a warm up race where he has nothing to prove. Should he win it though many more people will give him a 2nd look.

[afleetphil]

I just saw that. Rats. Would have liked to see an Afleet Alex win the Derby. But maybe it's a blessing.

[Man o Taz]

I just saw that. Rats. Would have liked to see an Afleet Alex win the Derby. But maybe it's a blessing.

Well, he does have another horse on the right coast who seems precocious in Materiality who won the Islamadora Stakes.

He may be sent to the Florida Derby or another Derby prep race.

We'll see.

I think Lord Nelson is running this weekend in the Sunland Derby

Thanks for the heads up.

[Man o Taz]

Too bad about Far From Over and Mr. Z is getting his deserved rest.

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

He stays on top, but his second start I expect to see something more from him if he is to remain there.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 70
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 Furlongs (50)
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

Is he going to deliver another stellar performance? How much can a horse keep moving forward. He has yet to bounce which worries me since the Derby could end up being his bounce race, or maybe he, not American Pharoah, is the  top horse of this generation.

3. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 36
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

I thought he was robbed again by the stewards. It was the same issue with the FOY. The horse that was going to win fouled the other horse, and this time the former stayed up whereas last time he came down.

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 64
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs.
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

All things could change if he delivers another strong performance. He is going against a stronger field.

5. Mubtaahij (Dubawi by Dubai Millenium by Seeking The Gold - Pennegale by Pennekamp) 100

Trainer: Michael DeKock
Next Race: Kentucky Derby
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs
Al Bastakiya, 9 furlongs and 110 yards
2nd UAE Two Thousand Guineas, 8 furlongs

6. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
7th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

Matched against Carpe Diem this is his chance to show just how good he is. 

6. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I did not like skipping the Gotham and now we see why. Sad to see him go.

7. International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (171)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (1)
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

FuPeg's most promising son since Premier Pegasus. Unless El Kabeir wins the Wood, this is the points leader on Derby day.

8. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 17
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Well, slowly but surely he is getting the points. However, the connections want to see more before they enter him in the Derby.

9. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (75) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
2nd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile  (1)

Bring on Far From Over - though he need not win the Wood to be in the Derby. So Wood may just be for a freshening.

9. Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold)6
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G3 Sunalnd Derby y, 9 furlongs
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs (5)
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

Headed to the Bayshore the Derby is off his radar. I still wonder if he might head to the Preakness Stakes.

10.  Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

Well, the elimination of Far From Over should help him get into the Derby. However, El Kabeir deserves to remain top horse given his Aqueduct efforts this year. We'll see how they do competing on the outer dirt track. Last time Frosted was 2nd in the Remsen when he raced here.

11. Madefromlucky (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Home From Oz by Pulpit) 20
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I expect to see him move forward here. With Far Right in it and American Pharoah, this could be a very strong race when you also add Bold Conquest and The Truth or Else.

12. Firing Line (Line of David by Lionheart - Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold) 58
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Sunland Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs(4)

Will the long lay off make him rusty? We'll see.

Honorable Mentions

Materiality (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet - Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr) 100
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs

Apollo's curse has me. I do not think he has the foundation to win. Is he a competitor? Definitely. I think he is this year's Bodemeister.If he enters the Kentucky Derby, he'll do well in Triple Crown races, but he will not win. If saved for the Preakness Stakes, it could be a different story, but his connections smell roses.

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew) 10
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

Ocho, Ocho, Ocho's defection helps him. Third place should be enough to get him into the Derby. Can he turn the tables on Prospect Park and Dortmund. I think he can. I think Prospect Park may bounce in this race and finish 3rd or 4th.

Ocean Knight (Curlin by Smart Strike - Ocean by Stormy Atlantic by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
3rd G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Can he move forward enough his next outing to make it into the Derby field?A 3rd place finish would likely do it.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (60)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward. His last race I did not think was too impressive.

I thought he was exhausted in the Fountain of Youth which led to his interference with Upstart that was dismissed.

Perhaps this will help condition him for the Kentucky Derby.

[Man o Taz]

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/03/31/derby-dozen-march-31-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx