Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

[Dusty]

Too bad about Far From Over and Mr. Z is getting his deserved rest.

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

He stays on top, but his second start I expect to see something more from him if he is to remain there.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 70
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 Furlongs (50)
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

Is he going to deliver another stellar performance? How much can a horse keep moving forward. He has yet to bounce which worries me since the Derby could end up being his bounce race, or maybe he, not American Pharoah, is the  top horse of this generation.

3. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 36
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

I thought he was robbed again by the stewards. It was the same issue with the FOY. The horse that was going to win fouled the other horse, and this time the former stayed up whereas last time he came down.

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 64
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs.
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

All things could change if he delivers another strong performance. He is going against a stronger field.

5. Mubtaahij (Dubawi by Dubai Millenium by Seeking The Gold - Pennegale by Pennekamp) 100

Trainer: Michael DeKock
Next Race: Kentucky Derby
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs
Al Bastakiya, 9 furlongs and 110 yards
2nd UAE Two Thousand Guineas, 8 furlongs

6. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
7th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

Matched against Carpe Diem this is his chance to show just how good he is. 

6. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I did not like skipping the Gotham and now we see why. Sad to see him go.

7. International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (171)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

FuPeg's most promising son since Premier Pegasus. Unless El Kabeir wins the Wood, this is the points leader on Derby day.

8. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 17
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Well, slowly but surely he is getting the points. However, the connections want to see more before they enter him in the Derby.

9. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (75) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
2nd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile  (1)

Bring on Far From Over - though he need not win the Wood to be in the Derby. So Wood may just be for a freshening.

9. Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold)6
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G3 Sunalnd Derby y, 9 furlongs
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs (5)
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

Headed to the Bayshore the Derby is off his radar. I still wonder if he might head to the Preakness Stakes.

10.  Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

Well, the elimination of Far From Over should help him get into the Derby. However, El Kabeir deserves to remain top horse given his Aqueduct efforts this year. We'll see how they do competing on the outer dirt track. Last time Frosted was 2nd in the Remsen when he raced here.

11. Madefromlucky (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Home From Oz by Pulpit) 20
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I expect to see him move forward here. With Far Right in it and American Pharoah, this could be a very strong race when you also add Bold Conquest and The Truth or Else.

12. Firing Line (Line of David by Lionheart - Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold) 58
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Sunland Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs(4)

Will the long lay off make him rusty? We'll see.

Honorable Mentions

Materiality (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet - Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr) 100
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs

Apollo's curse has me. I do not think he has the foundation to win. Is he a competitor? Definitely. I think he is this year's Bodemeister.If he enters the Kentucky Derby, he'll do well in Triple Crown races, but he will not win. If saved for the Preakness Stakes, it could be a different story, but his connections smell roses.

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew) 10
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

Ocho, Ocho, Ocho's defection helps him. Third place should be enough to get him into the Derby. Can he turn the tables on Prospect Park and Dortmund. I think he can. I think Prospect Park may bounce in this race and finish 3rd or 4th.

Ocean Knight (Curlin by Smart Strike - Ocean by Stormy Atlantic by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
3rd G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Can he move forward enough his next outing to make it into the Derby field?A 3rd place finish would likely do it.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (60)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward. His last race I did not think was too impressive.

I thought he was exhausted in the Fountain of Youth which led to his interference with Upstart that was dismissed.

Perhaps this will help condition him for the Kentucky Derby.

Well done - Thank YOU!

[Man o Taz]

Getting down to the wire.

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

Judgment Day is getting near. His works say he's heading into the race strong. He seems to work a little bit faster than Dortmund. We'll see if he can race faster. 

Far Right just worked so there will be 5 horses with a chance in this race.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 170
Trainer: Bob Baffert

G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs (100)
G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 Furlongs (50)
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He has yet to bounce which worries me since the Derby could end up being his bounce race, or maybe he, not American Pharoah, is the  top horse of this generation.

Keeps moving forward. Nice finish in the SA Derby. I think he's lazy. As long as you keep him interested he'll give you everything he has. That may explain why his works are not sharper than AP's overall. Then again, they both drilled the same 1:11.60 their final work.

3.  Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 164
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs. (100)
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I thought his performance was strong in the Bluegrass Stakes. I think he is going into the Derby well. Folks suggest his competition is lacking and that he has not been tested, but I believe his class is so strong that he makes good horses look much weaker than they are. We'll see.

4. Mubtaahij (Dubawi by Dubai Millenium by Seeking The Gold - Pennegale by Pennekamp) 100

Trainer: Michael DeKock

G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs
Al Bastakiya, 9 furlongs and 110 yards
2nd UAE Two Thousand Guineas, 8 furlongs

5. Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 113
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs (100)
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

This was the Frosted that we had all been looking for. Winning easily he looks like a top Derby contender. It seems like Florida helped condition him well for this race.

Kudos to the McLaughlin team for the win.

I believe this is Godolphin's first G1 win in a Derby prep, although Gayego won the Arkansas Derby in 2008 when it was a G2, and Discreet Cat won the UAE Derby thereabouts, as well. .

6. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 76
Trainer: Richard Violette

2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

7. International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (171)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (1)
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

FuPeg's most promising son since Premier Pegasus. Unless El Kabeir wins the Wood, this is the points leader on Derby day.

8. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 17
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

Is he a Derby horse. Certainly, one of the most promising horses in the field.

9. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (95) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

3rd G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
2nd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile  (1)

Was El Kabeir supposed to come from so far back by design, or not? I do not know. He closed well, but seemed to be left with too much to do.

10. Madefromlucky (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike - Home From Oz by Pulpit) 20
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs

2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I expect to see him move forward here. Who is getting 2nd place money here - Far Right, Bold Conquest, the Truth or Else, or him? Good field. 4 spots, and these 4 horses all need points to get into the Derby.

11. Firing Line (Line of David by Lionheart - Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold) 58
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 Sunland Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs(4)

Will the long lay off make him rusty for the Derby or will he be like Animal Kingdom? We'll see.

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 30
Trainer: James Cassidy
3rd G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
7th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

He looked much better than  in the San Felipe. The question is whether he has reached the top of his talent, or he can still move forward. I thought I read from the connections that there are no long term plans for him which suggests to me that the Kentucky Derby is not an option, but who knows.

Honorable Mentions

Materiality (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet - Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr) 100
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs

Apollo's curse has me. I do not think he has the foundation to win. Is he a competitor? Definitely. I think he is this year's Bodemeister.If he enters the Kentucky Derby, he'll do well in Triple Crown races, but he will not win. If saved for the Preakness Stakes, it could be a different story, but his connections smell roses.

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew) 30
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

Another 3rd? We'll see if the connections have Derby fever.

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

5th G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
3rd G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Can he move forward enough his next outing to make it into the Derby field?A 3rd place finish would likely do it.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (60)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs (10)
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward. His last race I did not think was too impressive.

I thought he was exhausted in the Fountain of Youth which led to his interference with Upstart that was dismissed.

Perhaps these tough Florida efforts will help condition him for the Kentucky Derby. The two races in Florida did not appear to hurt Frosted.

[peeptoad]

Frosted moved up a lot imo with his win on Saturday. I thought he was the most impressive of the 3 winners Sat.

[Man o Taz]

I did too, but I do not know whether he has the foundation that Dortmund has built in his 3 Derby preps.

He definitely has to step up.

I wonder about the California horses now. Is Dortmund that good, or are Prospect Park, Bolo, and Ocho Ocho Ocho suspect? I know Ocho was in the Bluegrass Stakes and did better, but the San Felipe it really seemed like Bolo and Prospect Park were going to move forward this race and they did not.

Bolo I like, but Prospect Park I always thought was a long shot. 

I know we still have the Arkansas Derby, but who is your Commanding Curve this year?

[Raven]

Frosted moved up a lot imo with his win on Saturday. I thought he was the most impressive of the 3 winners Sat.

I second that.

[Senator L]

I thought Dortmund was the most impressive. He did everything so easy and won by a good
4. I like grey's but Frosted doesn't do it for me and I'm not a big fan of Rosario either.
He is one less horse I have to worry about and if he beats me, he beats me  :chickendance:

[Raven]

I wasn't a fan of Frosted before the Wood,but I loved him in that race vs the rest.
He won it like a good horse
But I rate Upstart and Dormud higher than him!
One horse that I think has no shot in the Derby is American Pharoah. And he tops a lot of Derby lists!!

[Senator L]

Why would you think american Pharaoh doesn't have a chance?

[Raven]

He is not as good as Dortmund or Upstart
And on Saturday he will lose to Madefromlucky
That is only my opinion as a horsplayer

[Man o Taz]

That's interesting that you think American Pharoah does not compare to Dortmund.

I will agree that conditioning wise, Dortmund is far ahead of American Pharoah because he has been racing 5 times since November, whereas AP has one race in since his September race in the Frontrunner.

AP's next race back will tell us a lot. If you are right and Made From Lucky beats him, I will tend to agree with you.

Dortmund is an enigma. I am considering him as a possible toss because I have never seen a horse just keep getting better and better. Of course, Chrome did a similar progression last year, though his BSF did drop a point with the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby, but that's not much of a drop. I like Dortmund a lot, but my understanding is that anyone who sees both horses every day believes that American Pharoah is much more talented than he is. We'll see. There is no doubt that American Pharoah is fighting an uphill battle to be fit for the Derby with his first start coming in mid-March.

However, just as I am willing to reconsider AP if Made From Lucky bests him in the Arkansas Derby, I hope that you will be willing to reevaluate him if he performs well in the race.

There are 3 horses that have run 3 triple digit BSFs contending for the Derby. Dortmund. Upstart. And American Pharoah (though two were as a freshman). Pharoah could make it 4 Saturday. We'll see. Everyone enjoy. 

[curtis]

He is not as good as Dortmund or Upstart
And on Saturday he will lose to Madefromlucky
That is only my opinion as a horsplayer

Whom do you think Baffert prefers between his top two?

[Raven]

Whom do you think Baffert prefers between his top two?

I have no idea!
I like Dortmund!
A.P hasn't shown me that much.So far!  He wins his races very easyly but his figures don't do enything for me!
Even if he wins Saturday,unless he improves by at least 3-4 leinghts, I'm not using him on the top three spots!!

BTW,I know you're a SoCal guy and you might be an insider,I'll take your word that A P is thought to be the best of the two,but I as a horseplayer disagree!
Peace!!!



Spiro

[curtis]

I have no idea!
I like Dortmund!
A.P hasn't shown me that much.So far!  He wins his races very easyly but his figures don't do enything for me!
Even if he wins Saturday,unless he improves by at least 3-4 leinghts, I'm not using him on the top three spots!!

BTW,I know you're a SoCal guy and you might be an insider,I'll take your word that A P is thought to be the best of the two,but I as a horseplayer disagree!
Peace!!!


Spiro

I think there are two ways to look at it.  American Pharoah has the most brilliance or turn of foot which is something of which Baffert is highly enamored.  Dortmund to me, has the look of a turf horse that could probably go up to 12f and because of his talent he is beating up on a fairly ordinary group--except for Firing Line, whom I suspect a mile hits right between the eyes.  If you feel inclined to want to witness a horse have a chance to win the TC, then American Pharoah is not the horse you want to see win the Derby because I don't think there is any way he holds up to three races like that in 5 weeks.  I think Dortmund could, but his style may have to change on Derby Day.  If he runs the way he has been running he won't, in my opinion, be on or just off the lead but a ways off of it.  He's so big that I doubt that Martin will want to get his momentum stopped so he'll likely be wide.  If he can be placed with a shot as they turn for home--and by with a shot I mean close after having run sensible fractions--watch out because he knows how to use his size to intimidate the others.

American Pharoah, can use his speed to get out of a tight spot, if needed, so he's more agile and thus he's more the prototypical Baffert Derby type.  Also he is running at the end of his races.  However the question is in energy distribution throughout the race, e.g. does he need the lead?  It's been so long now since Baffert won a Derby that I think that is his goal and he realizes winning the whole thing--having come so close before--is pretty much a crapshoot.  I'm sure he'll be thrilled if he gets the Derby with either horse-or even with One Lucky Dane--but if he really wants to win the whole thing, he'll probably wish he won the Derby with Dortmund.

[Raven]

One Lucky Dane.   Like!!!!

[Raven]

I'm humbled!