#106
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 04, 2014, 12:40:20 PM
I agree about Samraat. I have a feeling he's going to win the race though, and Social Inclusion will come back down to Earth having faced graded stakes winning horses for the first time not coming off a four or so month layoff. I wonder if Ortiz will be told not to press Samraat thinking ahead to the Derby, or if Mr. Violette wants to get a strong effort out of him in this race.
Quote from: peeptoad on April 07, 2014, 06:49:54 AM
Well, Samraat won the battle, but lost the war. I still like him and never too late for my first list of the Derby season, lol:
1. California Chrome- I'm on board at this point. That last race was the clincher for me. Obviously he is not flawless, and he will encounter some new challenges in the big one, but this is the most dominant favorite we've seen in the past few years. Hopefully his form holds, he takes to the CD strip and draws a decent post. He also still hasn't shipped anywhere yet... but still a worthy Derby favorite.
2. Hoppertunity- love the way he is gradually improving, and he's definitely a better horse than he was even two starts ago. To me he is a solid second choice. My one concern (and it is not a small one) is that Baffert shipped and raced him too many times prior to the biggest race of his life. He looked a bit on the thin side to me in the SA Derby post parade, but he has the running style to be forwardly placed or take back slightly, and this will aid him in a field of 20. Hopefully he isn't over the top since he has to ship back east yet again.
3. Samraat- I'm not jumping ship yet. This is the exact type of horse that will grind his way into the bottom part of the tri or super, possibly even the exacta. He keeps on keeping on and that will serve him well going longer. He also has some early foot, but can run from off the pace. I have no worries about the distance with this horse... and he is improving incrementally with each start. He needs to move forward again in 4 weeks though.
4. Wicked Strong- nice improvement once he got away from GP. Some horses just do not run well down there and I think he was one. No real question about the distance, but his running style could get him into traffic trouble. He probably will get a pace setup in KY, but no guarantee and the word from the barn was that he was "tired" on Sunday. He's going to have to run harder than he ever has in 4 weeks. Hopefully he is ready.
5. Constitution- light on seasoning/foundation, but no question about his talent. Still, he's a fast Pletcher horse shipping from GP, so I take that with a bit of a grain. I think his lack of experience will probably be his undoing, but he's got a shot with a good post. Might need assistance in the form of an adverse event for a couple of those ranked above him though.
6. Commanding Curve- no lock to make the gate and, in fact, he probably won't, but he will get the distance and he will be running at the end. His running style is one factor to overcome, and he needs to improve by a significant margin to hit the board. He's "Samraat-light" in that I think he would have a fairly good chance to round out the exotics (but at a better price). He's the only horse I really like coming out of the LA Derby.
7. General a Rod- still hoping this guy bounces back from his last. On pedigree he seems a lock for 10F but he hasn't run to that yet. The connections seem happy with his last, though he failed without an apparent excuse. He also must rate successfully to have any chance.
8. Tapiture- classy, perfect running style, and relatively quick, but I can't get over the fact that all three full siblings were better suited to sprinting/miling. I think the distance will be his undoing.
radar:
Bayern- hoping for a good comeback in Arkansas.
Ring Weekend- if he trains well at CD then I will use him in some way. A replica of that race at CRC isn't going to cut it though.
Ride on Curlin, Conquest Titan- let's see how they do in ARK this weekend.