I am not sure how I feel about General a Rod coming out of the FL Derby. I quite liked him (though not my top prospect) prior to that race, but I really expected a better effort from him. Not sure if he is better around two turns, or regressed off the FOY effort. The connections seem happy enough with him, but he drops down for me...
With the four big preps still to come these are the main horses I am watching (in no real ranking order):
Hoppertunity- probably my top horse (tepidly) if he continues to improve. He runs 1-2-3 in the SA Derby and I think that sets him up nicely.
Samraat- I think this guy is way underrated. He's not flashy, but he gets the job done every time and has a nice pedigree as the distances increase.
California Chrome- on the flip side this guy might be a tad overrated, but there is no denying that last race. I'm concerned he may have peaked too soon with the huge effort in San Felipe; his previous top was ~15-20 pts lower. Hopefully he can hold his form for another 4-5 weeks.
Commanding Curve- he was the only horse making up any ground in the LA Derby and he did it after a terrible start in which he got wiped out and wound up about 2-3 lengths behind the rest of the field. If he avoid trouble (which he seems to find) and he manages to make the gate (short on points), then I love him at boxcar odds.
Ring Weekend- really has a lot to prove, but I like him and think it's interesting that he's taking a wildly unconventional route to the Derby.
General a Rod- previously mentioned. Maybe he'll take to the CD strip (I think he has a win there), and he could jump forward once out of FL (sheer speculation on my part)
Vicar's in Trouble- nice, horse, but Rosie is not going to be able to do in KY what she did in LA. He must rate with all the other speed signed on, and his closing fractions were not the best, even after an ideal trip.
Tapiture- hard to get past the trainer now, but still a solid horse. I'm skeptical he can go the distance though since all 3 full siblings have been sprinter-milers.
Horses I would rank lower (though any horse has a shot once they make the gate): Cairo Prince, Wildcat Red, Constitution. The former two probably do not want any more ground and the latter is woefully behind in seasoning/foundation.
...and I am sure Pletcher will find some other horse (Commissioner maybe?) to load into the gate.
