MOT's Derby Dozen

[peeptoad]

Good that he's doing well at GG, but he is officially off my Derby radar... if he manages to make the race I will be astounded.
I think the Preakness or even the Laz Barrera are way more likely at this point. I still think he is the most talented horse in the crop though.

[The Tin Man]

Good that he's doing well at GG, but he is officially off my Derby radar... if he manages to make the race I will be astounded.
I think the Preakness or even the Laz Barrera are way more likely at this point. I still think he is the most talented horse in the crop though.

I agree with you wholeheartedly ... Sucks to take your #1 off of the radar though ... He was mine too ...

And it looks like my # 2, Indianapolis, is highly unlikely to make it either. Seems they weren't even contemplating it I guess. I've never heard them mention it as a goal. Maybe they're just thinking he's a pure sprinter?

Oh well ... I'll be just as happy seeing them dominate NON-Kentucky Derby races ... Just want them to be safe and shine!

Guess that makes Bayern my top dog now ... If neither SB or Indy go.

 

[Man o Taz]

Well, we're starting to get a lot closer.
The one from last year I was counting on was Havana. But I doubt he'll make the
starting gate. There are a couple others that I really like

1) Candy Boy : This horse looks like he wants to run all day
2) Wildcat Red: I know his pedigree says sprinter, but if he keeps
winning why not keep betting him?
3) The top (3) from the Gotham. This bunch is fun to watch
4) General A Rod: If I like Wildcat Red I gotta like this guy
5) Gala Award, that was a nice win on the turf, great pedigree too.
Should dirt easy

I'm going to have to add Candy Boy for Havana when I release my latest list next week.

And depending what happens this weekend with Shared Belief I may be dropping him from the list as well despite how much I like this colt.

I may have to add Samraat. He is undefeated and finds a way to win. We'll see.

And Spot is likely to make my honorable mention list.

[Man o Taz]

Gary Roedemeier Top 20 March Derby List
http://www.whas11.com/sports/derby-horse-racing/Roedemeier-March-Derby-top-20-list-248295951.html

1. Candy Boy
2. Samraat
3. Tapiture
4. Top Billing
5. General A Rod
6. Strong Mandate
7. Intense Holiday
8. Albano
9. Honor Code
10. Uncle Sigh
11. Cairo Prince
12. In Trouble
13. Wildcat Red
14. Conquest Titan
15. Kristo
16. Chitu
17. Solitary Ranger
18. Ride on Curlin
19. Tamarando
20. Kobe's Back

Roedemeier suggests that its strange that so many people would be on Cairo Prince's band wagon when he has a dosage index of 7.00. It will be interesting to see if he is successful in the Derby based upon this since only Strike the Gold has had a DI above 6.

[Senator L]

i didn't know Cairo prince had such a high dosage#. i did notice
wildcat reds was high, but he looks like he'll keep going imo
i'll be betting against Cairo in the Fl Derby
sometimes these numbers aren't exact sciences - as you mentioned Strike the Gold

[Cigarshop]

In my humble opinion Samraat is NOT a KY Derby Horse. If the connections thought he was that good he wouldn't have spent the Winter in NY.
He's beating up tomato cans. But I do hope many people get "fooled" into betting him.

Cairo Prince hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential. He WILL win the Derby as long as he's makes the starting gate.

All this dosage and other BS, means zip. The horse has what it takes to win and that's heart...


But then again what do I know?


Cigarshop

[Man o Taz]

Cairo's been my number one Derby horse since he finished a close second to Honor Code carrying six pounds more than HC did.

I don't know much about the DI, but I did find it an interesting statistic to watch as he stretches out to see how much of a factor it actually plays.

Secretariat - the gold standard had a DI of 3.0 I believe.

Strike The Gold was 9.0. And there are a couple around 5.0, but most are lower since 1940. 

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm

And now with poor Indianapolis being sick he'll likely be removed from my list as well.

[peeptoad]

The 9f preps will help separate the contenders form the pretenders imo...

[The Tin Man]

And now with poor Indianapolis being sick he'll likely be removed from my list as well.

Great ... Now that means my top 2 are both off of the trail ...   

Oh well ... Now, to me, no matter who wins the Derby ... It won't be the best 3 year old running this year.

Guess Bayern is the last SoCal hope now.

[Man o Taz]

There is still Candy Boy and California Chrome and Tamarando, right?

Two are currently on my list and I'll be adding Candy Boy after this weekend.

[Man o Taz]

My, m, my.

So much change. Bayern not in the San Felipe. Top Billing out with injury. Honor Code skipping the Rebel for an allowance race... Bond Holder sidelined. Shared Belief - still no work - I'm thinkin the Bluegrass Stakes since he likes synthetic is his only shot at the Derby. And Mr. Hollendorfer seems like he is unlikely to press his horses. I will leave him on the list a bit longer because of his talent, but I need to see a work soon for him to stay there.

5 new horses in the mix...and I expect to drop Shared Belief next week after he does not work.

KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check/(Previous odds)

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/10-1(12-1)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/12-1(15-1)
Next race: Mar. 12 Allowance Race as Gulfstream Park

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/15-1(18-1)
Next race: Apr. 15 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?

4. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/85-1
Next race: Apr. 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park

5. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12/25-1(50-1)
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park

6. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 10/18-1(28-1)
Next race:  Mar. 15. G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie)
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct

8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10/20-1(n/a)
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park

9. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 6/20-1(30-1)
Next race: Mar. 15 G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park

10. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

11. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

12. TIE Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?

Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance)
Next race: Apr. 5 Calder Derby at Calder Park or Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course

Honorable Mention


Spot (Pulpit and Quiet Summernight by Quiet American)
Next race: Unknown

He has Secretariat on top and bottom through A.P. Indy, but where does he go next?

The Rebel Stakes I think would have been a nice spot for him - but running him off two weeks rest might be too much.

Perhaps the Lexington Stakes...at 8.5 furlongs. Its still worth 10 points and the way that horses are dropping out 10 may  get you in this year as last year.

Can Mr. Zito find an 8 furlong O/C or Allowance race next week and then look to run him in the Bluegrass Stakes or the Arkansas Derby? 

[Man o Taz]

RacingDudes.com Derby Top 20 March 5
http://racingdudes.com/2014/03/06/top-20-kentucky-derby-prospects-4-2/

1. Top Billing
2. Cairo Prince
3. Tapiture
4. Strong Mandate
5. Candy Boy
6. Samraat
7. Shared Belief
8. Honor Code
9. Intense Holiday
10. Constitution
11. Bayern
12. Uncle Sigh
13. Bobby's Kitten
14. Wildcat Red
15. General a Rod
16. Commissioner
17. Midnight Hawk
18. Albano
19. In Trouble
20. Tamarando

As we get closer to the Derby - everyone's lists are probably going to look more similar.

ESPN Kentucky Derby Power Rankings - March 4th
http://espn.go.com/espn/print?id=10551505&type=story

1. Cairo Prince
2. Honor Code
3. Candy Boy
4. Tapiture
5. Top Billing
6.  Intense Holiday
7. Strong Mandate
8. Samraat
9. Bayern
10. Shared Belief

I have 9 out of Steve's top 12...I was surprised to see him add Tamarando. I've had him since my first list because I really like his always showing up. At some point, he is going to either step up and win the big one or fall back and finish at the back of the pack...and I am betting on the former.

I think In Trouble is a horse I have been overlooking. He could move far up in the Wood.

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen March 10th
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/10/derby-dozen-march-10-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

1. California Chrome
2. Cairo Prince
3. Honor Code
4. Candy Boy
5. Intense Holiday
6. Tapiture
7. Samraat
8. General a Rod
9. Uncle Sigh
10. Kobe's Back
11. Tamarando
12. Strong Mandate

[Man o Taz]

Well, we know what Steve Haskin is going to do - the same thing I am - add Hopperunity to my list.

He looked great in the Rebel.

We'll see how he stretches out, but he seemed to want at least 9 furlongs. Haskin's hype was correct. He said all along that this horse was his top horse in Mr. Baffert's barn.

[Dance With Gable]

Well, we know what Steve Haskin is going to do - the same thing I am - add Hopperunity to my list.

He looked great in the Rebel.

We'll see how he stretches out, but he seemed to want at least 9 furlongs. Haskin's hype was correct. He said all along that this horse was his top horse in Mr. Baffert's barn.

MY top horse in Baffert's barn is Indianapolis ... Derby trail or not ...

So I've gotta disagree with Haskin. 

[Man o Taz]

And Shared Belief is my number one in Mr. Hollendorfer's barn, but we see how that worked out. SMILE

I hope I get to see Indianapolis run out East some time this year. Maybe in the Haskell.

Steve Haskin's March 17 Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/17/derby-dozen-march-17-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

1. Califorinia Chrome
2. Cairo Prince
3. Hopperunity
4. Candy Boy
5. Intense Holiday
6. Tapiture
7. Honor Code
8. General a Rod
9. Samraat
10. Uncle Sigh
11. Tamarando
12. Ride On Curlin

An interesting list. I am glad that he did not jump on the Social Inclusion bandwagon as some others have. The horse had an impressive breakout performance in an allowance race on a speed favoring track. Noble Causeway had a similar performance at 8 furlongs. He looked special as Mr. McGaughey noted in comments after the race, but it was one performance, and while Honor Code is a top derby aspirant, this was his first race back - he was not fully cranked - and SI had a race under his belt. Let's see how he does in his next race. If he can step up to 9 furlongs and equal or better his performance then, indeed we may have a superstar in the making.

I have 8 horses in agreement with Mr. Haskin adding Hoppertunity and sadly dropping Shared Belief.

Derby point totals follows pedigree...

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park or the April 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Park

3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42
Next race:  Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

4. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park

5. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 12
Next race: Mar. 22 G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park

6. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 60
Next race: Apr. 5 G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct

7. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 53
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

This is a big step - adding a horse to my Derby list that has not raced as a 2 year old, but he has raced 4 times already and grown a lot in his races, so I am willing to take the gamble here, unlike some other horses that have been lightly raced at 3 and point to the Derby. He will only stay on my list if he enters the gate and runs in the Santa Anita Derby since no horse has won the Derby that I am aware of without at least trying a 9 furlong race before the 10 furlong Derby.

8. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 10
Next race: April 5 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park

9. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 11
Next race: Apr. 12. G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

10. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 50/ 50-1(n/a)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

11. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer)
Next race: Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

12.  TIE Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50
Next race: Apr. 5 Calder Derby at Calder Park or Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course

Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled)
Next race: Apr. 15 G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course?