Breeders' Cup Picks

[Zenyatta]

Ok I'll start the board rolling. Who are your picks for the Breeders' Cup? Someone needs to get Bal over here with PPs

[Flanders]

I only included the Breeders Cup races.

2013 BREEDERS' CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS PAST PEFORMANCES, POST TIME AND WAGERING SCHEDULE
All Times Pacific

Friday, Nov. 1
Race No.   Race   Time   Wagering Options
6. Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. II)   1:45 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
7. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT)   2:25 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
8. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I)   3:05 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
9. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. IT)   3:50 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, Super Hi 5
10. Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I)   4:35 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, SpecialDD


Saturday, Nov. 2
Race No.   Race   Time   Wagering Options
4. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)   12:05 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
5. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT)   12:43 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
6. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I)   1:21 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
7. Geico Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. IT)   2:05 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 6
8. Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)   2:43 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
9. Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT)   3:22 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
10. Xpressbet Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I)   4:01 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
11. Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT)   4:40 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD
12. Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I)   5:35 pm   WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, Super Hi 5

[jjacks1]

Wow, picks for Breeder's Cup? Is that actual picks or sentimental favorites or both?  Okay here goes nothing and I really do mean nothing  Someday I'll post my Derby picks versus horses that have won and you'll see what I mean!

Now that post positions were drawn let me update this list!

Marathon - Blueskiesnrainbows (I just LOVE this guy!)
Juvenile Turf - Bobby's Kitten
Dirt Mile - I would love to see Alpha win
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Kitten Kaboodle
Distaff - Princess Of Sylmar

Juvenile Fillies - Untapable
Filly & Mare Turf - I would love to see Marketing Mix win since I'm such a Medaglia D'Oro fan but I think Laughing is just too good
Filly & Mare Sprint - Judy The Beauty
Turf Sprint - Mizdirection
Juvenile - Strong Mandate
Turf - Little Mike
Sprint - Trinniberg
Mile - Silver Max
Classic - Palace Malice


And now you can see why I only bet the minimum - most of those are sentimental picks.

[peeptoad]

I can't really post picks since I haven't even gone through all the advance pps yet, and things will most certainly change once the pp draw has occurred, but here some tentative/prelim picks for the races I have looked at:

FM Turf
Romantica- my top pick right now. I think she will handle the firm SA turf, is classy enough, and is proficient at 10F.
Dank- race at AP may have been an outlier, but it was a monster race. If she can replicate that here, then she's in the mix.
Laughing- may get a pace advantage as there is not much other early speed, save rank outsider Vionnet. 10F is stretching it, but could get an easy run up front.
Marketing Mix (and to a lesser extent, Tiz Flirtatious) are the only other two that really interest me. I assume The Fugue will go to the Turf.

Juv. Fillies
Untapable- Barring a bad post she is my top pick. She's already a G2 winner at the distance/configuration, while the other top 2 have question marks imo.
Artemis Agrotera- two turns is the question, but she is fast enough given her best effort. Running style aids her chances.
Sweet Reason- might be the best here, but 2 turns again is a question, plus slop form was (mildly) better than fast track, and must overcome a likely slow start yet again.
I assume My Conquistadory will go to the turf race (and she should imo).

...my only other general thought right now is that Beholder may be able to steal the Distaff, depending on which Royal Delta shows up. Sylmar is a veritable monster, but she needs to break well and be more forwardly placed in this shortest of fields.

[Cigarshop]

I am making just 3 wagers all weekend

1. Beholder
2. Diamond Bachelor
3. Vorda

I'm wishing you ALL the best of luck wagering on these races. Get a signer or two.

Cigarshop

[Zenyatta]

...my only other general thought right now is that Beholder may be able to steal the Distaff, depending on which Royal Delta shows up. Sylmar is a veritable monster, but she needs to break well and be more forwardly placed in this shortest of fields.

I'm curious to see what the pace scenario will be in the Distaff, because both Royal Delta and Beholder could be on the lead. Whether Beholder can *relax* on the lead with RD on her flank is another question.

[Goldi]

MUCHO MACHO MAN for the Classic. He's looked terrific out there, and I think he and Stevens are a match made in horse heaven,.

PRIVATE ZONE for the Sprint.  If I needed another reason to pick him, Candyman E, who finished lengths behind him in the Vosburgh,  just annihilated a good field at Belmont.

As much as I want to see Groupie Doll take her Sprint, I think this year she'll need a perfect trip and some luck to do it. So I'll go with DANCE TO BRISTOL in an upset.

INDIAN JONES/OLD TIME HOCKEY for the Marathon -- 'cause they are Smarties. ;-)

[jt dancer]

With some luck in the draw, I think Beholder could take Distaff.  The Princess would have to overcome the horrible speed bias at Santa Anita, and I am not sure that the pace will be blazing.  My current thought is that Beholder and Royal Delta run 1-2.

[Kennedy]

I have just about finished off my BC handicapping for this season. Nothing is more exciting to me than pouring over all the data crunching the numbers and trying to come to a conclusion.

For me the experience of coming up with the picks is actually more fun than seeing if the picks were correct!

For all my work and analysis and I have to say that I am still up in the air about 2 races. The Marathon and the Classic.

The Marathon is confusing because I hardly care and no one seems like a good option.

The Classic has me confused because I have a basket of horses that I think could all win and would likely take turns winning this race if they ran it 10 times. The question is "whose turn is it?" All of my normal analysis and statistical separation techniques haven't really given me much help on this file.

[Kennedy]

As a matter of interest I thought that I would once again post the top ranked KSR horse for each BC race.

I have only been able to apply the theory to the last 104 BC races but over that time the top ranked (fastest) horse has won 23% of the time.

Here are the top ranked horses for each race this year
Marathon - Worldly
Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa
Dirt Mile - Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Testa Rossi
Distaff - Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Dank
FM Sprint - Groupie Doll
Turf Sprint - Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Mexikoma
Turf - Point of Entry
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - Wise Dan
Classic - Game On Dude

[Kennedy]

I also have a pet project for the Breeders' Cup called the 20/20 which is essentially a statistical profiling system.

A profile has been created for every race aside from the Marathon. Here are the perfect qualifiers below

Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa/Bashart/Bobby's Kitten/Outstrip/Poker Player
Dirt Mile - Golden Ticket/Pants On Fire/Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Al Thakhira/Chriselliam/Clenor/My Conquestadory/Testa Rossi
Distaff - Princess of Sylmar/Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Artemis Agrotera/Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Laughing/Marketing Mix/Tiz Flirtatious
FM Sprint - Dance to Bristol/Groupie Doll/Judy the Beauty/Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint - Chips All In/Mizdirection/Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Diamond Bachelor/Havana/Tap It Rich
Turf - Indy Point/Little Mike/Point of Entry/The Fugue
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - No Qualifiers
Classic - Game On Dude/Flat Out/Fort Larned/Mucho Macho Man

39 Qualifiers over 12 races. The Mile has no perfect qualifiers this year.

[Man o Taz]

From the post position thread where I thought it would be easiest to do the picks from since they were listed right there...in order of predicted finish... (SMILE)

Classic
Mucho Macho Man
Game On Dude
Ron The Greek

Bubble - Declaration of War

Distaff
Princess of Sylmar
Royal Delta
Close Hatches

Filly & Mare Turf
Laughing
Dank
Kitten's Dumplings

Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll
Sweet Lulu
Renee's Titan

Mile
Silver Max
Wise Dan
Olympic Glory

Turf
Little Mike
The Fugue
Point of Entry


BC Sprint
Trinniberg
Secret Circle
Private Zone

BC Dirt Mile
Verrazano
Goldencents
Centralillintelligence

BC Juvenile
Havana
Smarty's Echo
Tap It Rich

BC Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind
Secret Compass
Concave

BC Juvenile Turf
Wilshire Boulevard
Bobby's Kitten
Bashart

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Kitten Kaboodle
Dancing House
Sky Painter

BC Marathon
Blueskiesnrainbows
Sunsoutgunsout
Pool Play

[Kennedy]

My own record in the Breeders' Cup is 168-33-30-22. That's from single selections for each race since 1996.

The winning percentage is low so I'm hoping to improve on that this year.

My highest total number of winners came in 2010 when I went 4 for 14. My best winning percentage came in 1997 when I went 3 for 7.

2005 was my worst year when I went 8-0-2-2.

[pointgivenfan]

I also have a pet project for the Breeders' Cup called the 20/20 which is essentially a statistical profiling system.

A profile has been created for every race aside from the Marathon. Here are the perfect qualifiers below

Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa/Bashart/Bobby's Kitten/Outstrip/Poker Player
Dirt Mile - Golden Ticket/Pants On Fire/Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Al Thakhira/Chriselliam/Clenor/My Conquestadory/Testa Rossi
Distaff - Princess of Sylmar/Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Artemis Agrotera/Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Laughing/Marketing Mix/Tiz Flirtatious
FM Sprint - Dance to Bristol/Groupie Doll/Judy the Beauty/Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint - Chips All In/Mizdirection/Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Diamond Bachelor/Havana/Tap It Rich
Turf - Indy Point/Little Mike/Point of Entry/The Fugue
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - No Qualifiers
Classic - Game On Dude/Flat Out/Fort Larned/Mucho Macho Man

39 Qualifiers over 12 races. The Mile has no perfect qualifiers this year.

I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.

[Kennedy]

I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.

He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.

Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.