Breeders' Cup Picks

[Zenyatta]

I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.

He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.

Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.

I think Wise Dan is vulnerable this year. I'm curious to know what the reason was for Brite Thought's long layoff. On his best days this horse is lightning fast, but that layoff is a red flag.

[ElPrado]

Mine are hung out to dry in Ballerinas contests on the handicapping board. Too lazy to type them over.

[pointgivenfan]

I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.

He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.

Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.

Wouldn't Game on Dude's prep race technically be "off-surface"?

[Kennedy]

Game on Dude isn't running in the Mile

It isn't one profile stretched over 13 races. It's 13 different profiles.

The only other time (since 1995 when my data begins) the Mile had 0 perfect qualifiers was 1995. That year the tri was swept by horses with 1 strike against.

It will be interesting to see what happens this year. The BC Mile 20/20 profile has identified 31 perfect qualifiers from 18 runnings. There are 13 winners among those 31. Their combined record is 31-13-4-4 and technically it's 13 from 17 races because one race had no qualifiers.

[pointgivenfan]

Game on Dude isn't running in the Mile

It isn't one profile stretched over 13 races. It's 13 different profiles.

The only other time (since 1995 when my data begins) the Mile had 0 perfect qualifiers was 1995. That year the tri was swept by horses with 1 strike against.

It will be interesting to see what happens this year. The BC Mile 20/20 profile has identified 31 perfect qualifiers from 18 runnings. There are 13 winners among those 31. Their combined record is 31-13-4-4 and technically it's 13 from 17 races because one race had no qualifiers.

I meant for the Classic, clearly.
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?

[Man o Taz]

I meant for the Classic, clearly.
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?

Right. I mean it is a "Win and you're in" prep for the BC Classic, so I assume it would be a qualifier for the Classic even though its at 9 furlongs vs. 10.

[pointgivenfan]

I meant for the Classic, clearly.
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?

Right. I mean it is a "Win and you're in" prep for the BC Classic, so I assume it would be a qualifier for the Classic even though its at 9 furlongs vs. 10.

...I was asking about his 20/20 thing.

[peeptoad]

'Capped the Friday races about as much as I will have time for... saving most of my energy for the Saturday races, though there are a couple of longshots I like on Friday. In terms of betting I probably will only shell out cash for the Dirt Mile, Juv Fillies Turf and possibly the Juv Turf.

Top 3 picks/race in order of preference:

SA6 Marathon
#7 London Bridge
#10 Worldly
#5 Suns Out Guns Out

SA7 Juv Turf
#4 Outstrip
#5 Bobbys Kitten
#13 Bashart

SA8 Dirt Mile
#4 Brujo De Olleros
#11 Pants on Fire
#2 Golden Ticket
(may also throw either Verrazano or Hymn Book into an exacta box with these guys. Pants on Fire would be my top pick if not for the post).

SA9 Juv Fillies Turf
#8 Chriselliam
#14 My Conquistadory
#12 Testa Rossi

SA10 Distaff
#6 Princess of Sylmar
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder

[Kennedy]

Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?

Correct. Each race has separate criteria. They could be the same but in most cases they are not.

[Kennedy]

Marathon
I think that anytime I get around to looking at this race I end up at the same place. I don't care and I wouldn't even bother with it unless it had a Breeders' Cup designation. I hope they just ditch this race soon. But getting into the actual race for this year I have a tepid preference for Suns Out Guns Out. No real reason other than Romans getting some good results lately and this horse is one of the few without real speed. Although the addition of blinkers may put him more into the race. Leparoux is patient so perhaps this guy can out-wobble the rest. Indian Jones is the form horse and he likely has a big change to be favored but it's hard to take a shorter price in a race like this. Ever Rider will get some respect from me but he isn't Calidoscopio and he'll be a fraction of the price. He could win but I don't like his more speedy profile and the shorter price.

Suns Out Guns Out
Indian Jones
Ever Rider

Juvenile Turf
A very interesting contest with a lot of ways to go. For me it starts with the home grown talent. Bobby's Kitten is a phenomenal talent in the making. In both of his wins he absolutely bolted on the field and left his rivals with no chance. He could do that same thing to this group. Brown has been trying to get him to settle and he claims that he is succeeding. I guess we'll see once the gates open. Although I have a lot of respect for Bobby's Kitten I'm actually going elsewhere with my primary play for this race. I think that Bashart stands out as significant value despite the horrendous post. Bashart really impressed me in his last three races. He seems to be quite tough and professional for his age. I think he has the mental attributes necessary for this wide post plus no one for about 8 slots to his inside have any natural speed. I thought Bashart was unlucky in his last race. The trip did him no favors and he still could have won with a more patient approach. I think Velasquez will get it right this time. I don't want to exclude the Europeans entirely from this race. I think that Outstrip, Wilshire Boulevard and Giovanni Boldini are all decent horses capable of winning. But among them only Giovanni Boldini seems to have the change of pace that this tight course and full field might require. I think Outstrip is the best of the invaders but he takes so long to get going his rider will have to be going full out as they head into the turn. Giovanni Boldini has a better cruising speed and pickup and shouldn't have to be as far back as Wilshire Boulevard. He certainly has a good chance.

Bashart
Bobby's Kitten
Giovanni Boldini

Dirt Mile
In it's short history this race has developed into a tricky one and I think this year may be set to follow the atypical mold. Four grade 1 winners are stuck in the outside posts and with about 6 yards to the first turn it could be bad news for those horses. It's an interesting quandary because those are 4 horses that you would think the public would like to support. Like many people I'm looking away from Verrazano and Goldencents for my primary selections. I think that Tapwone might be in a good spot tactically as he will likely establish his position on the fence right from the gate. Broadway Empire and Fed Biz may challenge him a bit but they likely won't want to force too fast a pace. I do think that everyone will have a vested interest in seeing Verrazano and Goldencents floated with early on so perhaps those two fight make the pace faster than it needs to be but honestly I think this race will be a little cagey. Most of the real talent comes from off the pace and if the pace doesn't setup it could leave this race wide open to some lesser lights. We've seen it happen before. Getting back to Taptowne I think that he is a bit better than he seems. He's been on a consistent run of form and is working lights out at present. One I like for a minor place is Holy Lute. With so many others worried about their post he seems to be well situated to work out a good trip. He is improving with every start and I think he learned a bit last time. Smith is a big upgrade in the saddle. I'm tossing Goldencents on at the bottom here because I think he is in great form and despite the post he's going to put in a good try and he is far more talented than my top 2.

Taptowne
Holy Lute
Goldencents

[Kennedy]

Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first race of the weekend where I really love my play. I think Al Thakhira has a super chance. In her two races she has shown a turn of foot that is absolutely top class. You never quite know how a European will handle the local conditions but this filly is very handy and has excellent acceleration. Her trainer is a savvy shipper and her connections already spend some good money acquiring her after her debut. I think we're going to see something special from her. The other Europeans are okay but I would say no more than evenly matched with the rest of this group. My Conquestadory seems like a special filly in her own right. It's pretty amazing to win a race like the Summer in her first start. The post isn't great but with her running style I doubt it'll be a factor. I just think that traffic may be a factor for her. Woodbine and Keeneland's main seem a bit more spacious than the SA Turf. It's hard to ignore the job that Chad Brown does with 2yo's on the lawn and I think Testa Rossi is the best of the group he is bringing for this race.

Al Thakhira
My Conquestadory
Testa Rossi

Distaff
I'm really looking forward to this showdown. Honestly 4 of the 6 horses I see as legitimate win candidates. Close Hatches is a bit shy of the class I think it'll take to win this race and Street Girl honestly would be the most shocking winner of the entire BC if she pulled this off. I think this is the kind of race where you just have to pick one and enjoy the tussle. I'd like to be in Royal Delta's corner. I think she can bully Beholder off the lead and outfinish Authenticity. I actually wonder if Princess of Sylmar will regress here. We'll see but I'll be going for Royal Delta.

Royal Delta
Beholder
Authenticity

[KD]

FRIDAY:

6th - Marathon

Commander
Cease

No one else made my sheet.

7th - JV (T)

Outstrip gets the nod if only because of having a somewhat more impressive campaign so far. Bobby's Kitten is a sort that could blossom but may not quite be there yet. Bashart next, though frankly I haven't been all that impressed to this point.

8th - Mile

Bru Jo De Olleros, if only because I'm not terribly impressed by the rest. Will probably go off over the ML and could be a good gimmick play. If you think Goldecents can stay for a share he's a must use, and if you think Hymn Book can close likewise.
Good luck with that.

9th - Juv F (T)

Ready To Act got my class number, and though this is a fairly decent field I'll use her on top. Something like 11 - (2, 4, 10, 14) and half back over.

10th - Distaff

Unless you have some compelling REASON to believe Royal Delta will have one of her occasional off days tomorrow how can you bet against her?
OTOH, 4 of the other 5 COULD win this.
RD wins, I suppose, but exactly how to bet if at all remains a mystery as for now.

[The Tin Man]

Marathon

Ever Rider

Juvenile Turf

Bobby's Kitten

Dirt Mile

Goldencents

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Clenor

Distaff

Princess Of Sylmar

Arabian Stakes

So Big Is Better

[Zenyatta]

I don't know what anyone else may think about the Mile, but I really like No Jet Lag and Silentio.  Perhaps Obviously is tailing off somewhat from his good form of earlier in the year.

Now that this crazy week is almost over, I may actually be able to look at the PPs for a nanosecond tonight. Sheesh! 

[The Tin Man]

I don't know what anyone else may think about the Mile, but I really like No Jet Lag and Silentio.  Perhaps Obviously is tailing off somewhat from his good form of earlier in the year.

Now that this crazy week is almost over, I may actually be able to look at the PPs for a nanosecond tonight. Sheesh! 

Oh ... I love No Jet Lag ... He, along with He Be Fire N Ice, is my pick in that race.