Will Take Charge inching closer. He's running out of calendar, though. An impressive 11 race season for him.

She always gives her all. Her finishing the race healthy is all that mattered. She was a worthy contender. 

Quote from: Islandgirl45 on November 29, 2013, 02:49:58 PM
Bet it's Will Take Charge after today's Clark win.

Right - even had Goldencents won the Cigar it would have been a tough call for him to get it since the voters seem to stick with tradition.

Quote from: Zenyatta on December 01, 2013, 11:55:21 AM
Game On Dude ran a good Clark, but he got run down by a better horse.  Will Take Charge has turned into a beast.

Indeed. No excuses - although I always think the Churchill surface can be a bit quirky, but I haven't read anything about it being problematic.

Well done by WTC - hope to see him next year.

Quote from: Zenyatta on December 02, 2013, 06:37:22 PM
How quickly I've forgotten about by Derby horse, Strong Mandate.  He's won a G1, finished a game 3rd in the BC Juvenile, and if he wins the Futurity it could cinch it for him. Decisions, decisions.

I thought he was off for the rest of the year. Did not think he was going to the Hollywood Futurity.

The Remsen Stakes seemed slow, but I was impressed by the top two finishers particularly Cairo Prince who carried six pounds more than Honor Code.

Older male traditionally goes to a main track horse UNLESS there is no worthy main track horse and a stand out turf horse.

Some may argue that there is no worthy main track older male. I can understand that argument because GOD did not perform in the BC Classic.

I take the opinion that one race does not decide it for me.

GOD campaigned from early February to late November.

Wise Dan had a second remarkable year campaigning from mid-April to early November.

He is worthy of Horse of the Year. However, I think older male goes to Game On Dude.   

Quote from: Zenyatta on November 21, 2013, 08:04:18 PM

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 21, 2013, 11:41:17 AM
Here is what some journalists are saying:

Finding A Three Year Old Champion
Saratogian

Major Thoroughbred Honors Predictions
The Sports Network

Will Take Charge Could Win Eclipse
Saratogian

I'd like to read these but you need to copy and paste the actual urls between the url tags, Taz.

Are you still thinking of coming to HP before it closes?  Sorry for the momentary hijack.
The Three Year Old Championship
DRF

I knew it seemed too easy...my apologies...

Quote from: mchorseracecall on November 25, 2013, 07:23:14 PM
Dave, Victor, please give me your list of different racetracks that you guys prefer to host the Breeders' Cup from 2015, all the way through 2030.

(Hint1: It should be on a major racetrack that has both the main track (dirt or synthetic) and a turf course)
(Hint2: It should be on a major racetrack that has live horse racing action during the final week of October or the first week of November)
(Hint3: it should be in different racetracks beside the Santa Anita Autumn Meet from 2015 thorough 2019)
(Hint4: It should be in different racetracks along with the Santa Anita Autumn Meet from 2020 thorough 2030)

Not necessarily.

Monmouth Park did not have live racing immediately prior to hosting the Breeders Cup.

Here is what some journalists are saying:

Finding A Three Year Old Champion
Saratogian

Major Thoroughbred Honors Predictions
The Sports Network

Will Take Charge Could Win Eclipse
Saratogian

The Three Year Old Championship
DRF

Quote from: peeptoad on November 19, 2013, 04:14:46 PM

He seems okay at 10F, but it's not his best distance imo. And I don't think that means he should race exclusively in races under 10, but it's helped his cause to have a higher percentage of G1 10F races than any other part of the country occur in CA. This is evidenced in the piece from your post below:

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 19, 2013, 01:17:26 PM
Game On Dude has distance limitations. Perhaps his trainer and connections know this and as a result were trying to put their horse in the best position to win. And they have. He has had a very successful 2013. But the really interesting point is that he has 5 10 furlong wins - which is more 10 furlong wins than any of the main track horses who have beaten him at this distance have.

I agree. There is no reason to not enter him in those races, particularly since his connections appear interested in running for the top money races and oftentimes the 10 furlong main track races have the biggest purses.

That said, I would like to see him race more at 9 furlongs and even at a mile.  He had two 9 furlong races last year. Four the year before. And in 2011 two 9 furlong races and two 8.5 furlong races. In those 10 races I believe he was 8-1-0. Not a bad winning percentage. Of course, then we'll get the response that he was not facing very tough fields because only 3 of the ten were outside of California.

 

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 19, 2013, 01:17:26 PM
But wouldn't that suggest distance limitations?

Maybe he should be in the 8-9 furlong type races exclusively.

It does not mean that he gives up or throws in the towel - or that he is not a quality horse - it just means that he has been outrunning his ability.

He is not a 10 furlong horse - but for not being a 10 furlong horse - he certainly has more wins at that distance than any other - because his connections pick and choose his races really well.

To me this is a compliment to the horse and not a criticism.

It is similar to a female stepping up to face males and winning. OK - maybe she cannot face and beat males day in and day out - but the fact that she can compete in open company against the best of the best makes her special.

Game On Dude has distance limitations. Perhaps his trainer and connections know this and as a result were trying to put their horse in the best position to win. And they have. He has had a very successful 2013. But the really interesting point is that he has 5 10 furlong wins - which is more 10 furlong wins than any of the main track horses who have beaten him at this distance have.

Acclamation - 1 - main track
Fort Larned - 1
Mucho Macho Man - 1
First Dude - 1
Dullahan - 1
Drosselmeyer - 3
Monterosso - 4

Acclamation I believe has six or seven wins at 10 furlongs or more but many are on turf.

This is to his credit - since as some of us suggest - he may not be a 10 furlong horse. Heck, to win 5 G1s at a distance that may not be your ideal distance - that's saying something.

His record at 10 furlongs is 11-5-3-0.

I think this is a really interesting discussion.

But wouldn't that suggest distance limitations?

Maybe he should be in the 8-9 furlong type races exclusively.

It does not mean that he gives up or throws in the towel - or that he is not a quality horse - it just means that he has been outrunning his ability.

He is not a 10 furlong horse - but for not being a 10 furlong horse - he certainly has more wins at that distance than any other - because his connections pick and choose his races really well.

To me this is a compliment to the horse and not a criticism.

It is similar to a female stepping up to face males and winning. OK - maybe she cannot face and beat males day in and day out - but the fact that she can compete in open company against the best of the best makes her special.

Game On Dude has distance limitations. Perhaps his trainer and connections know this and as a result were trying to put their horse in the best position to win. And they have. He has had a very successful 2013. But the really interesting point is that he has 5 10 furlong wins - which is more 10 furlong wins than any of the main track horses who have beaten him at this distance have.

Fort Larned - 1
Mucho Macho Man - 1
First Dude - 1
Dullahan - 1
Drosselmeyer - 3
Monterosso - 4

Acclamation I believe has six or seven wins at 10 furlongs or more.

This is to his credit - since as some of us suggest - he may not be a 10 furlong horse. Heck, to win 5 G1s at a distance that may not be your ideal distance - that's saying something.

His record at 10 furlongs is 11-5-3-0.

I think this is a really interesting discussion.

Quote from: peeptoad on November 19, 2013, 09:47:30 AM
Thanks for the pps Kennedy. After looking at them briefly the only concrete factor that I can come up with regarding GoD's dismal BC performance(s) is the relationship between the early fractions in the race and the distance. The only time he has been able to win when the opening half mile is under :47 is at 9F or under (though he almost won the 2012 Pac Classic, Dullahan passed him pretty easily suggesting that his late pace in that race was probably not as good as it appeared). With the exception of the 2011 Big Cap going :46 and change early, all of his 10F races in which he won had an opening half of over :46 (most were :47-:49 range). He did win that 2011 Big Cap, but he won by a diminishing nose to far lesser horse (Setsuko). I think a person can reasonably toss both Dubai excursions since many NA horses do not do well over there. The only logical assumption I can make (and a logical assumption seems almost like an oxymoron) is that he needs slightly slower fractions early at anything over 9F.
The other interesting thing looking at races earlier in his career is that he was often not on the lead early. He seems to be a definitely frontrunner now, but was not always that way, so maybe something else is going on...

I discussed this earlier in the thread.

I think you need to differentiate from instances when he was on the lead and just off the lead, don't you?

In the 2013 BC Classic, he was off the lead so can you really attribute the 46.36 time for the first half to him? I thought he was a length or two off the lead in the first half mile which would place his time around 47 wouldn't it? And if that is indeed the case, then this time is consistent with winning efforts he has had in the recent and distant past at 10 furlongs at Santa Anita. The only difference would be what I have suggested before - he was not on the lead. And this was Mr. Bailey's point.

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 07, 2013, 11:26:46 AM

Quote from: Islandgirl45 on November 05, 2013, 09:10:00 AM
I read one article in which Baffert said he knew GoD was in trouble when they were going too fast on the backstretch, yet isn't GoD's signature a high cruising speed?
It seems as if he just doesn't like to be challenged by another horse, and he folds if that happens.

Yes. I thought this was strange.

If you look at the fractions he has one with before where he has been on the lead - these fractions did not appear too quick.

I used to think that Game On Dude was challenged if the splits were faster than 24 second furlongs, but his Santa Anita Derby this year and his 2011 one suggest that's false.

Here are his splits from past Santa Anita Handicaps he won and this year's BC Classic.

2011 - Final time - 1:59.47

22.95, 46.73, 1;10.73, 1:34.80

2013 Final Time - 2:00.14

23.64, 47.19 (in front by 2 1/2 lengths after a half-mile), 1:10.97, 1:35.24

2013 BC Classic Final Time - 2:00.72

23.39, 46.36, 1:10.23, 1:34.84

This year's Classic was a touch faster than those other efforts where he won the races. But the final time was a half to a full second more. And he was not on the lead.

I still think the notion of getting the horse to rate in training screwed up his effort.

This and Mr. Baffert indicating that he needed a clear view and Mr. Smith had him behind horses.

Quote from: Dave in TJ Mex on November 18, 2013, 07:56:53 PM

Man O'Taz does an admirable job of making the best case possible for GOD.

His accomplishments, as referenced above, make it all the more baffling that in three of the four most important races of his life --- the last two BCC and the Dubai World Cup --- he was nowhere close to being competitive.

That's what so troubling to me.  In those "big" races, he just plain quit.

I have always liked Game On Dude. His sire. His running style.

I think Kennedy does make a good point regarding possible distance limitations. I used to think this too - but after he won 5 10 furlong races - well I thought maybe I was wrong.

I do not see the "In those "big" races, he just plain quit."

I certainly understand why you feel that way, but last year he had trouble at the gate that finished him off. This year he broke well and instead of being allowed to contest the lead he was forced to rate. Now Mr. Baffert suggested that he thought he was going too fast early, but elsewhere I showed that the splits in the other SAH's were not much different from those in races where he was on the lead and he won when compared to this BCC.

I think Jerry Bailey hit the nail on the head where he suggested that while they appeared to be training GOD in his works to rate, sometimes you can pay the price in the race for trying to do too many things differently. I think they tried to change his style getting him to rate and they paid the price.

Now, why was this the approach? Did the connections really have reason to fear this co0mpetition? Did they believe as Kennedy suggested that he might be distance challenged? Or did they overthink it?

Certainly, if you believe you have the best horse in the competition there is no reason to try and change his racing style.

Or did he need a race in between the Pacific Classic and the BCC?

I think there are plenty of explanations other than that he just did not show up.

In Dubai, as Kennedy suggests no American have fared well. Heck, it took GOD three times to win the Pacific Classic.