As I noted on the other thread, if Orb wins the Cigar Mile he gets the nod IMHO.

Anything less than a win and it goes to Will Take Charge.

Other than the Breeders Cup Classic, for three year olds the top performance is measured by how you do in the Triple Crown races.

Orb won the Kentucky Derby which is the equivalent of the Breeders Cup Classic for three year olds beating Will Take Charge who finished 8th.
In the Preakness Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 4th ahead of WTC who finished 7th.
In the Belmont Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 3rd. WTC finished 10th.

In the top three year old races - the TC races WTC was a no show while Orb showed up and ran respectable races.

Now, do not get me wrong - I like Will Take Charge a lot.

In the second half of the year he has been impressive.

He bested Orb in the Travers Stakes - his only race where he finished ahead of him all year. And Orb still finished a respectable 3rd.

Then Orb opts for a race against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup...while Will Take Charge opts for a lesser challenge against a field include a single stakes winning three year old in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Orb finishes his worst of all (8th) his races all year talking on older males and his connections decide that they will give him a pass on the BC Classic.

Will Take Charge finishes second in a hard fought stretch battle in the BC Classic.

Examining the entire year's efforts...

Will Take Charge is 10-4-2-0 overall but in graded stakes races he is 9-3-2-0. And in G1 races he is 5-1-1-0 with a solitary win.
Orb on the other hand is 8-4-0-2 overall but in graded stakes races he is 7-3-0-2. And in G1 races he is 6-2-0-2 with two wins.

My point is that I give Will Take Charge the edge right now as many of you suggest, but the notion that a win in the second half of the year in the Cigar Mile by Orb should be meaningless I since believe it ignores a substantial edge for Orb who would then have 3 G1 wins - 66% more than WTC - a final overall record of 9-5-0-2 and a graded stakes record of 8-4-0-2  which would show the following:

Orb wins 50% of his graded takes races.
Will Take Charge wins 33%% of his graded stakes races.
Orb wins %42% of his G1 races he runs in.
Will Take Charge wins 20% of his G1 races he runs in.
Orb finishes in the money in 75% of his stakes races.
Will Take Charge finishes in the money in 55% of his stakes races.
 

Two horses that I picked to finish 1st won...Much Macho Man and Groupie Doll

Others that I picked to finish in the money won though...

Classic
Mucho Macho Man (1)

Distaff
Close Hatches (2)

Filly & Mare Turf
Dank (1) picked to place.

Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll (1)

Mile
Wise Dan (1) picked to place.

Turf
The Fugue (2) picked to win.


BC Sprint
Secret Circle (1) picked to place.

BC Dirt Mile
Goldencents (1) picked to place.

BC Juvenile
Havana (2) picked to win.

BC Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind (3) picked to show.

BC Juvenile Turf
Bobby's Kitten (2) picked to win.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Nothing.

BC Marathon
Blueskiesnrainbows (2) picked to win.

Go Red Cadeaux, Brown Panther and Royal Empire!

Horse of the Year - Wise Dan
Granted, Dan does not have a sterling dirt performance like he had last year, or a win on synthetic like he had last year, but he does have a win at 9 furlongs on turf to go with his stellar performances at a mile. There is no horse other than perhaps Game On Dude who has had a more consistent high level of performance throughout the year. The difference between the two is that in the biggest race of the year in his division, Wise Dan won, and Game on Dude did not. 

Champion Older Male - Game On Dude

Game on Dude was the best, most consistent route horse all year. His competition was among the best in the country. He beat Ron The Greek in California after he came into the race off a career high BSF. He won at Charles Town in the Classic there against the best East Coast horses. And he accomplished an impressive win in the Pacific Classic.

Fort Larned last year did not win the older male award last year despite a resume that included two G1 wins including the Classic and the Whitney, and two other graded stakes wins and another stakes win.

I picked Mucho Macho Man to win the Classic, but I do not think he deserves champion older male because his resume of stellar achievements is more restricted. He has won two G1 races in the Awesome Again and the BC Classic. While he has placed in other races, this is the extent of his winning achievements.

Mucho Macho Man should be among the finalists though. And Wise Dan probably as well.

Champion Older Female - Royal Delta

Royal Delta is lucky that Princess and Beholder are three year olds. Her recent loss means that the competition might be closer. However, her resume is still quite impressive with her G1 wins in the Personal Ensign and the Delaware Handicap. The only other potentials are Joyful Victory, Tiz Miss Sue, and Authenticity.

Champion Three Year Old Male - Will Take Charge?

This is a tough one. Will Take Charge seems to have jumped to the head of the line based upon his impressive showing in the Breeder's Cup Classic. However, I think Orb still has a slim chance.

During the first half of the year, Orb hands down was the best three year old running. During the second half of the year, Will Take Charge has taken the mantle and run with it literally.

If Orb secures a win in the Cigar Mile over Cross Traffic and Graydar which he is being pointed toward, then I believe that he should receive the award. If not, then Will Take Charge with his G1 win in the Travers, his G2 wins in the Pennsylvania Derby and the Rebel and his 2nd place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic should give him the award.

I think the third finalist should be Goldencents. He won the BC Dirt Mile, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Sham Stakes.

Champion Three Year Old Female - Beholder?

This is a question mark too in my mind. I guess the edge has to go to Beholder since she has a BC win, and another G1 win over older females in the Zenyatta and two G1 wins in the Las Virgenes and the Santa Anita Oaks.

However, Princess of Sylmar has an impressive win in the G1 Alabama at 10 furlongs and the G1 Kentucky Oaks, and the G1 Beldame to go with her G1 win in the Coaching Club American Oaks.

I think Close Hatches should be another finalist.

Champion Two Year Old Male - New Year's Day?

There is so little on the resumes of the two year olds as expected.

New Year's Day has the win in the BC Juvenile.

Havana has the win in the Champagne Stakes.

Strong Mandate has the win in the Hopeful.

It will be interesting to see Honor Code does in the Remsen, but unless it is a record setting performance I doubt that he moves in front of any of these contenders.

Champion Two Year Old Female - Ria Antonia

Here there is a more confused situation.

She's A Tiger was taken down. She came in off an impressive win in the G1 Debutante and a second in the G1 Chandelier ikn which the ill-fated Secret Compass had won. And Ria Antonia has the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies which she has won. And then there is Artemis Agrotera.

My sentimental choice would be for Secret Compass.

Champion Turf Male - Wise Dan

Wise Dan was so consistent this year. 7 races run - all wins and a second. 6 wins on turf from 8 to 9 furlongs.

Other nominees invited should include: Point of Entry for his two G1 performance earlier in the year in the Manhattan and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and Obviously - another miler with two G2 wins and a G1 win in the Shoemaker Mile.

Champion Turf Female - Dank

Her wins in the BC Filly and Mare Turf and the Beverly D. show her to be the best here. I know those are two races, but they are two impressive performances.

I know Emolient has won three G1races this year, but I thought Dank was more special.

The other finalists are tough between Kitten's Dumplings, Alterite, Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious.

Champion Male Sprinter - Points Offthebench

Ordinarily the BC Sprint winner gets it, but POTB's  two G1 wins and the fact that he was the likely favorite in the BC Sprint before he was taken from us makes him more than a sentimental choice.

And one finalist has to be Secret Circle - the BC winner. The other finalist is really tough to choose between Private Zone, Justine Phillip, Strapping Groom, Sahara Sky, etc.

Champion Female Sprinter - Groupie Doll

No doubt. She had a brief year, but she bested a quality field.

Other finalists - who knows -- maybe Dance to Bristol?

Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 31, 2013, 07:09:04 AM
I meant for the Classic, clearly.
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?

Right. I mean it is a "Win and you're in" prep for the BC Classic, so I assume it would be a qualifier for the Classic even though its at 9 furlongs vs. 10.

Opting for the CashCall Futurity and seeing racing at Hollywood Park instead.

Quote from: Zenyatta on October 29, 2013, 06:37:38 PM
Eventually, ALL stallions will stand at Winstar. That place must be huge.

Now that is funny. I was actually thinking - gee they have a lot of stallions.

From the post position thread where I thought it would be easiest to do the picks from since they were listed right there...in order of predicted finish... (SMILE)

Quote from: Man o Taz on October 29, 2013, 08:03:36 AM
Classic
Mucho Macho Man
Game On Dude
Ron The Greek

Bubble - Declaration of War

Distaff
Princess of Sylmar
Royal Delta
Close Hatches

Filly & Mare Turf
Laughing
Dank
Kitten's Dumplings

Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll
Sweet Lulu
Renee's Titan

Mile
Silver Max
Wise Dan
Olympic Glory

Turf
Little Mike
The Fugue
Point of Entry


BC Sprint
Trinniberg
Secret Circle
Private Zone

BC Dirt Mile
Verrazano
Goldencents
Centralillintelligence

BC Juvenile
Havana
Smarty's Echo
Tap It Rich

BC Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind
Secret Compass
Concave

BC Juvenile Turf
Wilshire Boulevard
Bobby's Kitten
Bashart

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Kitten Kaboodle
Dancing House
Sky Painter

BC Marathon
Blueskiesnrainbows
Sunsoutgunsout
Pool Play

Good to hear he'll have a good home after racing.

Wishing him all the best in the Classic.

I hope his performance exceeds all of our expectations.

the 2012 Tenno Sho winner, Eishin Flash, finished third behind Just a Way and Gentildonna.

It was a good finish for him. He was caught up in traffic - not the best ride by Mr. De Mauro.

Here is a link to the race.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyF-AHXWTzE

Pulled for Big Screen. He just didn't fire.

2000 Fusaichi Pegasus - only because I saw him win the Wood.
2001 Invisible Ink
2002 Harlan's Holiday since we saw him win the Bluegrass Stakes
2003 Empire Maker because of his sire - but also liked Ten Cents A Shine because of his sire as well
2004 Smarty Jones - Philly Park favorite - loved the name
2005 Between Sun King and Afleet Alex
2006 Barbaro - because of Michael Matz who I knew of from showjumping
2007 Street Sense because of Mr. Nafzger trainer of one of my all-time favorites - Unbridled
2008 Pyro since seeing him in the BC Juvenile at Monmouth
2009 Chocolate Candy
2010 Super Saver because I liked his Arkansas Derby finish
2011 Master of Hounds
2012 Union Rags
2013 Revolutionary