The massively overrated Game On Dude. . ..

[Man o Taz]

And in 2012 he participated in the Dubai World Cup (12), in 2011 he also participated in the Charles Town Classic (2), and the Lone Star Park Handicap (3), and in 2010 he was in two maiden races placing (2,1) at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby (7), Churchill Downs for the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (5), the Lone Star Park Derby (1), and the Belmont Stakes (4). So to add to your point - he has traveled outside of California quite a bit.

Examining this resume, 40% of his races have been run outside the state of California.

But in the early part of his career he clearly wasn't the horse he is today. He has improved significantly over what he was as a 3yo. So it is difficult to compare his early races. One might actually say that he did not become a really good horse until he started running in Cal on a regular basis.

True.

When do you measure that he got good?

When he won his first stakes race?

The Lone Star Derby...G3...that would give him 7 out of 24 outside of CA or 29% of his races.

When he won his first G1 race?

That would be March 2011 - his second race career race in California - so let's eliminate the seven races in before that...

23% of his races - 5 out of 21 occurred outside of CA. 1.66 a year...out of an average of 7 races per year.

That's better than a lot of California-based horses.

[Man o Taz]

......against sub par competition.

What do you base that on? Two BC Classic races? So he does not run well at the end of the year at the age of 5 and 6. The notion that he always fades against top competition has been disproven. 

In 2011 he left California three times...he did not win but finished in the money in all of those races besting the following:

Acclamation
Awesome Gem
Flat Out
Gone Astray
Havre De Grace
Headache
Icebox
Inherit The Gold
Prayer for Relief
Rattlesnake Bridge
Rule
Ruler on Ice
So You Think
Stay Thirsty
Tackleberry
Tizway
To Honor and Serve
Uncle Mo

In 2012, he did what only one other American G1 winning horse did that year and went to the Dubai World Cup. True - he did not perform well - but he has never ducked competition.

In 2013 he bested the following horses in his travels:

Ron The Greek in the Santa Anita Handicap and the Charles Town Classic also defeating the previous year's winner Caixa Eletronica.

Remember in the SAH RTG was coming off his career high BSF so he was in good form and GOD dispatched him with ease.

And guess what - the runner up to Game On Dude in those races was among the inferior competition that Game On Dude had been accused of facing earlier that year in Clubhouse Ride who also bested RTG and CE.

[Man o Taz]

And in 2012 he participated in the Dubai World Cup (12), in 2011 he also participated in the Charles Town Classic (2), and the Lone Star Park Handicap (3), and in 2010 he was in two maiden races placing (2,1) at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby (7), Churchill Downs for the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (5), the Lone Star Park Derby (1), and the Belmont Stakes (4). So to add to your point - he has traveled outside of California quite a bit.

Examining this resume, 40% of his races have been run outside the state of California.

But in the early part of his career he clearly wasn't the horse he is today. He has improved significantly over what he was as a 3yo. So it is difficult to compare his early races. One might actually say that he did not become a really good horse until he started running in Cal on a regular basis.

True.

When do you measure that he got good?

When he won his first stakes race?

The Lone Star Derby...G3...that would give him 7 out of 24 outside of CA or 29% of his races.

When he won his first G1 race?

That would be March 2011 - his second career race in California - so let's eliminate the seven races in before that...

23% of his races - 5 out of 21 occurred outside of CA. 1.66 a year...out of an average of 7 races per year.

That's better than a lot of California-based horses.

[Kennedy]

And in 2012 he participated in the Dubai World Cup (12), in 2011 he also participated in the Charles Town Classic (2), and the Lone Star Park Handicap (3), and in 2010 he was in two maiden races placing (2,1) at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby (7), Churchill Downs for the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (5), the Lone Star Park Derby (1), and the Belmont Stakes (4). So to add to your point - he has traveled outside of California quite a bit.

Examining this resume, 40% of his races have been run outside the state of California.

But in the early part of his career he clearly wasn't the horse he is today. He has improved significantly over what he was as a 3yo. So it is difficult to compare his early races. One might actually say that he did not become a really good horse until he started running in Cal on a regular basis.

True.

When do you measure that he got good?

When he won his first stakes race?

The Lone Star Derby...G3...that would give him 7 out of 24 outside of CA or 29% of his races.

When he won his first G1 race?

That would be March 2011 - his second race career race in California - so let's eliminate the seven races in before that...

23% of his races - 5 out of 21 occurred outside of CA. 1.66 a year...out of an average of 7 races per year.

That's better than a lot of California-based horses.

In my estimation he became a good horse when he became a 4yo and matured a bit.  Despite my cagey devils advocate role in this thread I actually do not believe that Game on dude was smoke and mirrors with a record trumped up by inferior competition. I think that his going to California and becoming a good horse just happened that way. The one was not the cause of the other.

He has done just fine away from California since turning 4. Aside from going to Dubai which hasn't been kind to the US team since they began at Meydan.

I also think that his losses in the last two Classics were not a case of a false jade getting exposed. I actually think he just isn't as good at 10f and for whatever reason he also didn't run his best race. I'm a bit wary of Baffert horses in the BC in races other than the Sprint and Juvenile events. Game on Dude's failures are far from the first he's had.

[Dave in TJ Mex]

......against sub par competition.

What do you base that on? Two BC Classic races? So he does not run well at the end of the year at the age of 5 and 6. The notion that he always fades against top competition has been disproven. 

In 2011 he left California three times...he did not win but finished in the money in all of those races besting the following:

Acclamation
Awesome Gem
Flat Out
Gone Astray
Havre De Grace
Headache
Icebox
Inherit The Gold
Prayer for Relief
Rattlesnake Bridge
Rule
Ruler on Ice
So You Think
Stay Thirsty
Tackleberry
Tizway
To Honor and Serve
Uncle Mo

In 2012, he did what only one other American G1 winning horse did that year and went to the Dubai World Cup. True - he did not perform well - but he has never ducked competition.

In 2013 he bested the following horses in his travels:

Ron The Greek in the Santa Anita Handicap and the Charles Town Classic also defeating the previous year's winner Caixa Eletronica.

Remember in the SAH RTG was coming off his career high BSF so he was in good form and GOD dispatched him with ease.

And guess what - the runner up to Game On Dude in those races was among the inferior competition that Game On Dude had been accused of facing earlier that year in Clubhouse Ride who also bested RTG and CE.

Man O'Taz does an admirable job of making the best case possible for GOD.

His accomplishments, as referenced above, make it all the more baffling that in three of the four most important races of his life --- the last two BCC and the Dubai World Cup --- he was nowhere close to being competitive.

That's what so troubling to me.  In those "big" races, he just plain quit.

[peeptoad]

I also think that his losses in the last two Classics were not a case of a false jade getting exposed. I actually think he just isn't as good at 10f and for whatever reason he also didn't run his best race. I'm a bit wary of Baffert horses in the BC in races other than the Sprint and Juvenile events. Game on Dude's failures are far from the first he's had.

I really think that on-track/grandstand noise might be a factor for this horse, and it wouldn't be the first time a horse has been affected that way. From past experience I know that the biggest racedays in SoCal (Big Cap day, Gold Cup. etc) generally get on-track attendance of ~30-50% of what the BC gets and that's if the weather cooperates.

Do you happen to have GoD's lifetime past performances by any chance? It would be interesting to look at his lifetime pps on one page to see where his biggest misfires have occurred. It is undeniable that he is a better horse now than when he was younger though. 2013 was his best year yet, and it would be a disappointment for this race fan if he did not walk with the older male award (the Clark might affect that verdict I suppose). The only other older dirt male with any chance is MMM and he only has 2 wins on the year.

[Kennedy]

I think that a lot of the Game On Dude discussion can be encapsulated with one question.

Based on everything we know, don't know and are guessing about Game on Dude will he win the Clark?

[peeptoad]

I think that a lot of the Game On Dude discussion can be encapsulated with one question.

Based on everything we know, don't know and are guessing about Game on Dude will he win the Clark?

My guess is yes, but only a guess without even knowing the field.

[Kennedy]

I agree, without seeing the field in detail my choice would be Game on Dude.

[peeptoad]

Thanks for the pps Kennedy. After looking at them briefly the only concrete factor that I can come up with regarding GoD's dismal BC performance(s) is the relationship between the early fractions in the race and the distance. The only time he has been able to win when the opening half mile is under :47 is at 9F or under (though he almost won the 2012 Pac Classic, Dullahan passed him pretty easily suggesting that his late pace in that race was probably not as good as it appeared). With the exception of the 2011 Big Cap going :46 and change early, all of his 10F races in which he won had an opening half of over :46 (most were :47-:49 range). He did win that 2011 Big Cap, but he won by a diminishing nose to far lesser horse (Setsuko). I think a person can reasonably toss both Dubai excursions since many NA horses do not do well over there. The only logical assumption I can make (and a logical assumption seems almost like an oxymoron) is that he needs slightly slower fractions early at anything over 9F.
The other interesting thing looking at races earlier in his career is that he was often not on the lead early. He seems to be a definitely frontrunner now, but was not always that way, so maybe something else is going on...

[Man o Taz]

Man O'Taz does an admirable job of making the best case possible for GOD.

His accomplishments, as referenced above, make it all the more baffling that in three of the four most important races of his life --- the last two BCC and the Dubai World Cup --- he was nowhere close to being competitive.

That's what so troubling to me.  In those "big" races, he just plain quit.

I have always liked Game On Dude. His sire. His running style.

I think Kennedy does make a good point regarding possible distance limitations. I used to think this too - but after he won 5 10 furlong races - well I thought maybe I was wrong.

I do not see the "In those "big" races, he just plain quit."

I certainly understand why you feel that way, but last year he had trouble at the gate that finished him off. This year he broke well and instead of being allowed to contest the lead he was forced to rate. Now Mr. Baffert suggested that he thought he was going too fast early, but elsewhere I showed that the splits in the other SAH's were not much different from those in races where he was on the lead and he won when compared to this BCC.

I think Jerry Bailey hit the nail on the head where he suggested that while they appeared to be training GOD in his works to rate, sometimes you can pay the price in the race for trying to do too many things differently. I think they tried to change his style getting him to rate and they paid the price.

Now, why was this the approach? Did the connections really have reason to fear this co0mpetition? Did they believe as Kennedy suggested that he might be distance challenged? Or did they overthink it?

Certainly, if you believe you have the best horse in the competition there is no reason to try and change his racing style.

Or did he need a race in between the Pacific Classic and the BCC?

I think there are plenty of explanations other than that he just did not show up.

In Dubai, as Kennedy suggests no American have fared well. Heck, it took GOD three times to win the Pacific Classic.

[Man o Taz]

Thanks for the pps Kennedy. After looking at them briefly the only concrete factor that I can come up with regarding GoD's dismal BC performance(s) is the relationship between the early fractions in the race and the distance. The only time he has been able to win when the opening half mile is under :47 is at 9F or under (though he almost won the 2012 Pac Classic, Dullahan passed him pretty easily suggesting that his late pace in that race was probably not as good as it appeared). With the exception of the 2011 Big Cap going :46 and change early, all of his 10F races in which he won had an opening half of over :46 (most were :47-:49 range). He did win that 2011 Big Cap, but he won by a diminishing nose to far lesser horse (Setsuko). I think a person can reasonably toss both Dubai excursions since many NA horses do not do well over there. The only logical assumption I can make (and a logical assumption seems almost like an oxymoron) is that he needs slightly slower fractions early at anything over 9F.
The other interesting thing looking at races earlier in his career is that he was often not on the lead early. He seems to be a definitely frontrunner now, but was not always that way, so maybe something else is going on...

I discussed this earlier in the thread.

I think you need to differentiate from instances when he was on the lead and just off the lead, don't you?

In the 2013 BC Classic, he was off the lead so can you really attribute the 46.36 time for the first half to him? I thought he was a length or two off the lead in the first half mile which would place his time around 47 wouldn't it? And if that is indeed the case, then this time is consistent with winning efforts he has had in the recent and distant past at 10 furlongs at Santa Anita. The only difference would be what I have suggested before - he was not on the lead. And this was Mr. Bailey's point.

I read one article in which Baffert said he knew GoD was in trouble when they were going too fast on the backstretch, yet isn't GoD's signature a high cruising speed?
It seems as if he just doesn't like to be challenged by another horse, and he folds if that happens.

Yes. I thought this was strange.

If you look at the fractions he has one with before where he has been on the lead - these fractions did not appear too quick.

I used to think that Game On Dude was challenged if the splits were faster than 24 second furlongs, but his Santa Anita Derby this year and his 2011 one suggest that's false.

Here are his splits from past Santa Anita Handicaps he won and this year's BC Classic.

2011 - Final time - 1:59.47

22.95, 46.73, 1;10.73, 1:34.80

2013 Final Time - 2:00.14

23.64, 47.19 (in front by 2 1/2 lengths after a half-mile), 1:10.97, 1:35.24

2013 BC Classic Final Time - 2:00.72

23.39, 46.36, 1:10.23, 1:34.84

This year's Classic was a touch faster than those other efforts where he won the races. But the final time was a half to a full second more. And he was not on the lead.

I still think the notion of getting the horse to rate in training screwed up his effort.

This and Mr. Baffert indicating that he needed a clear view and Mr. Smith had him behind horses.

[Dave in TJ Mex]

Gosh, I like the intelligence and work involved by the previous few posters to really analyze his past performances and figure out what is going on.

But it all leads me back to a point make much, much earlier in this thread.

The more "conditions" you place on GOD's best performances --- that is, for his best effort, he must break well, must not be "rated," cannot go too fast too early, cannot be "behind" horses, maybe should run at less than at 10 furlongs --- the more it leads me to conclude that when this horse is looked in the eye by really competition in classic distance races, he tends to spit out the bit.  Again, the problem for me is not that he gets beat, but that he seems to quit at the quarter pole.  He has to have it all his way.

On his best day, a terrific horse.  When its not his best day, nowhere around at the finish.

[peeptoad]

Thanks for the pps Kennedy. After looking at them briefly the only concrete factor that I can come up with regarding GoD's dismal BC performance(s) is the relationship between the early fractions in the race and the distance. The only time he has been able to win when the opening half mile is under :47 is at 9F or under (though he almost won the 2012 Pac Classic, Dullahan passed him pretty easily suggesting that his late pace in that race was probably not as good as it appeared). With the exception of the 2011 Big Cap going :46 and change early, all of his 10F races in which he won had an opening half of over :46 (most were :47-:49 range). He did win that 2011 Big Cap, but he won by a diminishing nose to far lesser horse (Setsuko). I think a person can reasonably toss both Dubai excursions since many NA horses do not do well over there. The only logical assumption I can make (and a logical assumption seems almost like an oxymoron) is that he needs slightly slower fractions early at anything over 9F.
The other interesting thing looking at races earlier in his career is that he was often not on the lead early. He seems to be a definitely frontrunner now, but was not always that way, so maybe something else is going on...

I discussed this earlier in the thread.

I think you need to differentiate from instances when he was on the lead and just off the lead, don't you?

In the 2013 BC Classic, he was off the lead so can you really attribute the 46.36 time for the first half to him? I thought he was a length or two off the lead in the first half mile which would place his time around 47 wouldn't it? And if that is indeed the case, then this time is consistent with winning efforts he has had in the recent and distant past at 10 furlongs at Santa Anita. The only difference would be what I have suggested before - he was not on the lead. And this was Mr. Bailey's point.

I'm not talking about GoD's personal fractions within the race- I'm simply talking about the fractions the race was run in (the fractions on paper in the chart). Not sure whether it matters or not if he was on the lead. The fractions are the fractions regardless of whether he set those fractions or they were those set by another horse in  the race that he was chasing. GoD has natural, early speed, which is probably why he has been on the lead of late, but he doesn't really seem to need the lead. What he does seem to need going over 9F is a more moderate early pace, and it would make sense that 10F races run at the sport's highest level would have brisker earlier fractions. If the pace had been more moderate and he was in the first flight of horses one could potentially assume that his closing kick would have been better.
Of course, I am speculating... since the horse can't talk. Maybe the crowd noise was all that did him in.

[Man o Taz]

But wouldn't that suggest distance limitations?

Maybe he should be in the 8-9 furlong type races exclusively.

It does not mean that he gives up or throws in the towel - or that he is not a quality horse - it just means that he has been outrunning his ability.

He is not a 10 furlong horse - but for not being a 10 furlong horse - he certainly has more wins at that distance than any other - because his connections pick and choose his races really well.

To me this is a compliment to the horse and not a criticism.

It is similar to a female stepping up to face males and winning. OK - maybe she cannot face and beat males day in and day out - but the fact that she can compete in open company against the best of the best makes her special.

Game On Dude has distance limitations. Perhaps his trainer and connections know this and as a result were trying to put their horse in the best position to win. And they have. He has had a very successful 2013. But the really interesting point is that he has 5 10 furlong wins - which is more 10 furlong wins than any of the main track horses who have beaten him at this distance have.

Fort Larned - 1
Mucho Macho Man - 1
First Dude - 1
Dullahan - 1
Drosselmeyer - 3
Monterosso - 4

Acclamation I believe has six or seven wins at 10 furlongs or more.

This is to his credit - since as some of us suggest - he may not be a 10 furlong horse. Heck, to win 5 G1s at a distance that may not be your ideal distance - that's saying something.

His record at 10 furlongs is 11-5-3-0.

I think this is a really interesting discussion.