2015 Derby Point Standings and Schedule

[Senator L]

Well Taz we were close on the points issue. At the beginning of
the thread you thought 20 and I thought 40
and Bolo is horse#20 with 30 points...we middle it  :chickendance:

[Senator L]

I hope Zito gets his horse in. He seems to be pretty high on him
I'm starting to like the one from Dubai. His last race was pretty special

[peeptoad]

That's Mubtaahij and he's the ultimate wild card imo.

He could run decently or be nowhere and neither would be too much of a shock. I would probably be more shocked if he actually won though. Too many unknowns to form a solid opinion, but he ships overseas first time, has never run on any dirt track other than Meydan, and the dirt company he's kept has been questionable, though not completely without merit.
My biggest issue with him though is that his "toughest" race to date was the UAE Derby and he got an absolutely perfect set up in that race, tracking 3 dueling leaders on the rail. He was in the cat bird seat the whole way around and the margin is deceptive since all 3 hit the wall coming down the stretch. His biggest foe (likely) in that race also had a terrible trip. Yeah, he might get 10F, but is he going to get the trip? The US horses are far classier than what he's faced in Dubai thus far, and he gets 19 other horses to maneuver through to make a run and that's after shipping halfway around the world. At least they shipped him early. I would need 20/1 minimum to consider him for the win spot (and that's if he gets a decent post).

Having said all that he does look like one of the best winners of the UAE race to ship for the Derby, so who knows?

[Senator L]

You make some good points, I doubt if he will be 20-1 though. If
he is I'll bet him :chickendance: 3 races back in the 2000 Guineas
he was down on the rail and fought for 2nd. Seems like a tough horse
which you need in the Derby. On the other hand Dortmund drilled
a bullet at SA - catch me if you can  :chickendance:

[Catalina]

One Lucky Dane off Derby trail:

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/one-lucky-dane-out-of-kentucky-derby/

[peeptoad]

I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.

http://www.drf.com/news/premium/worst-news-comes-last-11-derby-workers
John Velazquez has to choose between Carpe Diem and Materiality. Javier Castellano and Mike Smith have been mentioned by Pletcher as possible replacements for whoever Velazquez doesn't choose, though Smith is in play for Bolo and Far Right, too.

[Senator L]

Bejarano is confirmed for Bolo

[Man o Taz]

Well Taz we were close on the points issue. At the beginning of
the thread you thought 20 and I thought 40
and Bolo is horse#20 with 30 points...we middle it  :chickendance:

I was really happy at the 30 point cut off...each year its a little higher...which makes sense. It means the system is getting more competitive which I think you want.

With One Lucky Dane out that makes 21 and Madefromlucky with 30 points.

I read somewhere - that someone thought it would be a good idea to let the connections choose post positions in order of the final point tally which I like because it would prevent the top horses who have earned the most points from getting a lousy post position which I would think Churchill would want to do.

1    International Star    Mike Maker   171   $940,979
2  Dortmund    Bob Baffert   170   $1,230,000
3   Carpe Diem    Todd Pletcher   164   $1,470,000
4   American Pharoah   Bob Baffert   160   $1,410,000
5  Frosted   Kiaran McLaughlin   113   $776,200
6   Mubtaahij-IRE   Mike de Kock   100   $1,400,000
7   Materiality    Todd Pletcher   100   $632,028
8   El Kabeir   John Terranova II   95   $720,792
9   Upstart    Rick Violette, Jr.    76   $807,680
10   Far Right   Ron Moquette   62   $585,906
11   Itsaknockout    Todd Pletcher   60   $288,560
12   Firing Line    Simon Callaghan   58   $530,000
13   Danzig Moon   Mark Casse   45   $217,500
14   War Story    Tom Amoss   44   $195,000
15   Tencendur   George Weaver   41   $224,500
16   One Lucky Dane   Bob Baffert   40   $200,000
17   Stanford   Todd Pletcher   40   $151,400
18   Mr. Z    D. Wayne Lukas   34   $625,826
19   Ocho Ocho Ocho   Jim Cassidy   30   $760,250
20   Bolo   Carla Gaines   30   $214,980
21   Madefromlucky   Todd Pletcher   30   $200,000
22   Keen Ice   Dale Romans   22   $136,520
23   Frammento    Nick Zito   20   $92,800
24   Bold Conquest   Steve Asmussen   17   $192,176
25   The Truth or Else    Kenny McPeek   11   $180,167
26   Metaboss   Jeff Bonde   10   $136,450
27   Firespike   Mike Maker   10   $51,816
28   Toasting Master   Dale Romans   5   $31,000
29   Task Force Glory   Mike Maker   5   $29,625
30   Cross the Line    Jerry Hollendorfer   4   $120,000
31   Another Lemon Drop   Phil Bauer   1   $25,500

Putting Keen Ice in play next and then Frammento.

Pletcher gets his 5.

Baffert down to 2.

[Senator L]

I like the idea of most points gets to pick post position.
I thought they had that some years back but switched it for some
reason. I have a crumby memory though  :chickendance:

[Raven]

It used to be like this
They pick your number,you pick your pp

[Senator L]

It used to be like this
They pick your number,you pick your pp

[peeptoad]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=48874

Johnny V confirmed on Carpe Diem, Castellano gets Materiality, Smith sticks with Far Right...

[Man o Taz]

Javier's got a good mount.

I thought Johnny would stay with Carpe Diem.

So Stanford and Itsaknockout are probably sticking with their jocks.

[peeptoad]

Derby week TV schedule:
http://www.kentuckyderby.ag/kentuckyderby-schedule.php

[peeptoad]

Not sure how I will bet yet since I'm (logically) waiting for the pp draw.
Barring a bad draw these are my top picks for the win:

1. Frosted
2. American Pharoah
3. Carpe Diem
4. Upstart

possible horses to use underneath for exotics (I'm probably playing the exacta and super, possibly the tri):
El Kabeir
Stanford
Tencendur
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Far Right


still not sure what to do with Mubtaahij. Thinking about tossing him. For the super I would go much deeper in the bottom 2 spots... would include Moobs and Int'l Star as well. Possibly Firing Line or Dortmund, though I like them for the super only.