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G1 Shadwell Turf Mile

Started by Man o Taz, September 29, 2014, 01:44:40 PM

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Man o Taz

#15
Actually, my phrasing was clumsy. Dan has only won 3 G1s out of 4 races this year. He has only raced in 3 G1s. And they were not consecutive as Main Sequence's were.

His previous race win to the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile was the G2 Bernard Baruch.

That said, I find it impressive that the first $1,000,000 race in Keeneland history was a mile long turf race.

But I do agree that unless a horse has clearly eclipsed the champion with their racing resume, all things being equal, the champion deserves the edge.

However, I also believe that Main Sequence is also a contender for Horse of the Year, just as Wise Dan is.

What I find most interesting is that Mr. Lopresti brought up the Clark Handicap as a possible goal after the Breeders Cup at this point. Rather than waiting for the Breeders Cup, it was mentioned. This tells me that the connections of Wise Dan are very interested in a 3rd Horse of the Year title. And the way things are falling - it is becoming a distinct possibility.

I have also always felt that a horse should be able to win HOTY without winning a division. Thus, in my mind, people should be able to vote for a HOTY candidate while voting other horses the best in categories that that horse has competed in such a turf and older male. HOTY is for the horse that has put the most complete set of performances together during the year. Dan started in April and could run until November racing six times. Main Sequence could run in 4 G1 races...and then will likely be rested for the remainder of the year. However, the Canadian International in mid-October is still a possibility...but I could not see him running in that race and the Breeders Cup. If he did that...and won winning 3 races in 5 weeks...well that could be enough to give him the edge...since that would be a tremendous accomplishment.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

curtis

Quote from: Senator L on October 07, 2014, 07:19:23 AM
I don't buy it. In all sports, the champ is the champ until someone
knocks them off their perch. You said "And Wise Dan has only won 3 out of 4 G1 races this year"

Not true, Dan is 4 for 4  :chickendance: I get the distance thing and why we don't see sprinters
named HOY. The category is turf - all distances. If someone else wants to be the champ they go and
beat him, he doesn't have to go and beat them. That's the way it is suppose to work. Just like boxing
you don't point him to death, you have to knock his ass silly. That is the way to win, not
this pencil whipping crap

:thanks:
To suggest a horse has would have to drop back to a mile in order to be named champion turf male is ridiculous.  The award is for 2014, nothing that happened before this year should matter.  Giving credence to prior years is how Zenyatta won Horse of the Year in 2010 which was essentially a lifetime achievement award.

Man o Taz

#17
While I do not believe that Zenyatta received the 2010 Horse of the Year eclipse as a Lifetime Achievement Award, do you have something against such awards?

Zenyatta's campaign that year began in February and lasted through November. She competed only in Grade 1 races against the best older females in the country defeating all comers in her class. Then, she stepped up in class and narrowly lost the Breeders Cup Classic to a once defeated champion older male horse, Blame. Blame was a worthy champion older male. I have a great deal of respect for him. However, he did not best all comers in all of the races he competed in as an older male. He also did not compete in just the top races. He began the year in May, not February. Competing not in a G1, but rather a G3. Racing a total of 5 times, and losing once to older males. He also had two races that he won at his home track at Churchill Downs, while Zenyatta only had one race at her home track of Hollywood Park that year.

Native Dancer won in 1954 based largely on his performance in the Metropolitan Mile that year. I thought he was deserving of the award then and now. Some said it was a make up award for his not winning it in 1953. I do not. I also think Zenyatta deserving of her award on the merits of what she achieved in 2010 alone. 

"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

curtis

Quote from: Man o Taz on October 07, 2014, 01:26:49 PM
While I do not believe that Zenyatta received the 2010 Horse of the Year eclipse as a Lifetime Achievement Award, do you have something against such awards?

Zenyatta's campaign that year began in February and lasted through November. She competed only in Grade 1 races against the best older females in the country defeating all comers in her class. Then, she stepped up in class and narrowly lost the Breeders Cup Classic to a once defeated champion older male horse, Blame. Blame was a worthy champion older male. I have a great deal of respect for him. However, he did not best all comers in all of the races he competed in as an older male. He also did not compete in just the top races. He began the year in May, not February. Competing not in a G1, but rather a G3. Racing a total of 5 times, and losing once to older males. He also had two races that he won at his home track at Churchill Downs, while Zenyatta only had one race at her home track of Hollywood Park that year.

Native Dancer won in 1954 based largely on his performance in the Metropolitan Mile that year. I thought he was deserving of the award then and now. Some said it was a make up award for his not winning it in 1953. I do not. I also think Zenyatta deserving of her award on the merits of what she achieved in 2010 alone.
I do have a problem with lifetime achievement award, especially since the award is prefaced with the year.  Do you really believe any other mare with the same record as Zenyatta--in 2010--would have won Horse of the Year?  Giving credence to previous years is why Crystal Water won nothing in 1977 and Exceller--one of the absolute greatest injustices of the Eclipse era in my opinion-- in 1978 won not a thing.

Man o Taz

#19
Quote from: curtis on October 07, 2014, 02:34:45 PM
I do have a problem with lifetime achievement award, especially since the award is prefaced with the year.  Do you really believe any other mare with the same record as Zenyatta--in 2010--would have won Horse of the Year?  Giving credence to previous years is why Crystal Water won nothing in 1977 and Exceller--one of the absolute greatest injustices of the Eclipse era in my opinion-- in 1978 won not a thing.

I can envision many scenarios where a horse with a record like Zenyatta's could win HOTY. I think what matters most is who the competition is. Arguably, Zenyatta's record was better than Havre De Grace's.

Looking at the 2011 Horse of the Year, was Havre De Grace's record that much better than Zenyatta's? True - she did defeat older males in the G1 Woodward Stakes, but she finished out of the money in the peanut butter at Churchill Downs in the Breeders Cup Classic. I strongly supported Havre De Grace winning HOTY in 2011, but her record was very similar to Blame's, though she did start the year earlier than he did - in March rather than mid-May. She ran in two G3 races. She won three G1 races, including the aforementioned Woodward against males. She lost to Blind Luck in the G2 Delaware Handicap (which featured G1 competition and by all rights should have been a G1 race). So, with two G3 wins, and three GI wins and two defeats she was voted HOTY.

Zenyatta's record is arguably better than that record. And many writers have indicated it was her effort in the BC Classic at Churchill - and her loss that really showed just how good she was. Without seeing Blames quality (for much of the year Quality Road was seen as the better horse EVEN after Blame defeated him in the Whitney) another win by Zenyatta may not have meant as much. 

This from Andy Beyer who was not exactly a Zenyatta fan...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/07/AR2010110704076.html

The nationwide television audience watching "Zenyatta: A Quest for Perfection" and the 72,739 people cheering for the mare at Churchill Downs surely felt deflated when she lost to Blame in          the Breeders' Cup Classic. They shouldn't have despaired. Zenyatta was more ennobled by this defeat than by almost anything she did during the 19-race winning streak she brought into Saturday's race.

Although she regularly won races with electrifying rallies in the stretch, none was so impressive as her charge from a hopeless position with a half mile to run-dead last and 15 lengths behind the leaders-that brought her into a photo finish with Blame.


And here is Brian Zipse:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/In_Defeat_Zenyatta_s_Legend_Grows_Revisited_123

Gallant to say the least, Mike. Zenyatta is no longer undefeated, but her reputation grew leaps and bounds tonight. In Blame, she faced the best horse she had ever faced. With all due respect to the Classic winner, he was simply not the best horse in the race. As someone who selected Blame to win the race, I say without a shred of doubt that Zenyatta was the best horse in the Classic. That is how good she was, she is, and she always has been.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/horses/breeders/2010-11-07-zenyatta-impresses_N.htm

"For her to do what she did, I put her on a higher plateau than ... before," says Steve Haskin, senior correspondent for The Blood-Horse who's covered the sport for four decades. "She's the greatest filly I've ever seen. She may be the greatest of all time."

There had been questions about Zenyatta's quality because all but two of her previous starts came on synthetic tracks in California. That included her breakthrough victory last year as the first female Classic winner.

Nack, 69, has no more questions. "She silenced every person who was skeptical about her, including myself," he says.

Nack wrote Secretariat, which chronicled the feats of the 1973 Triple Crown champion and provided the basis for the current movie. He warned against comparing Zenyatta to male greats now that her career is over.

"That's a stretch," he says. "In this race, there was no Cigar (16 wins in a row) or (Triple Crown winners) Seattle Slew or Affirmed. ... Blame is a nice horse, but he isn't a great racehorse."


"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

curtis

I think Havre De Grace won Horse of the Year though because of the two years that preceded hers.  It can be argued that Personal Ensign had a better year in 1988 and she wasn't really even mentioned for Horse of the Year.  There are years in which I truly believe there should be no award given for each category--especially Horse of the Year--and 2011 was one of them.  I don't disagree that Blame was not a super horse.  The point is though, he and Zenyatta were the two main contenders for the award and Blame beat her the only time they met in what was set up to be the titular race.  Had that been some random mare that didn't have the history of Zenyatta--but the same record for just that specific year--do you really think she would have won the award?

I own horses, two are OTTB's.  I don't dislike any horse.  I also like history and at times I think that horse racing history is not documented well.  The Breeder's Cup has changed everything and not for the good.  The Breeder's Cup era has brought specialization that has become detrimental to the sport.  For years those of you that go to Saratoga may have noticed that the track record for 9f on the main track was held bey a horse named Tri Jet.  He set it in the 1974 Whitney and it stood until--I believe--Lawyer Ron lowered it which means it stood for 30 years or there about.  Tri Jet was a really nice horse--I saw him run many times at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park.  If you gave him a fast main track or firm turf course from 7f-9f he was really tough.  He switched surfaces from race to race and bounced around the country. A lot of horses raced on both surfaces which elevated turf racing.  Tri Jet was Wise Dan circa 1973-'74.  Running exclusively a mile on turf was not as lucrative then, so horses didn't do that.  If they had, such a specialization would have been right in Tri Jet's wheelhouse.  Now a horse only really runs on turf if they aren't proving to be outstanding dirt horses.  So while Wise Dan is a really nice horse who will deservedly make the HOF someday, he's doing it against suspect competition that is helping to elevate his reputation.  I think it is a very good bet that if Wise Dan runs and wins both the BC Mile and the Clark he'll again be Horse of the Year.  I don't think it matters whether Shared Belief or California Chrome win the Classic.  That makes him a three time Horse of the Year and begs comparisons--by people only looking at the raw history--to Forego.  Except for the fact that Wise Dan can never sire a horse as nice as Coplean--or any horse for that matter--he compares much more closely with Tri Jet.

Man o Taz

I understand what you are saying about Zenyatta and Blame - head to head - Blame has the edge. My point is that when a horse steps up in class and does as well as she does on the other horse's home track...its a draw. Otherwise, the winner of the BC Classic would be crowned HOTY every year which I truly believe would be a mistake. I do agree that the Breeders Cup has not been all good for the sport. I think part of the good is the attention it gives - calling something a championship and backing it up with the most lucrative purses - attracts public attention. Part of the bad is as you note. However, when you look at Zenyatta's record in 2010 exclusively outside of the BC Classic vs. Blame's I believe it is superior.

Some of the best horse's in their class have long had problems attracting the best of the best to compete against them. I do not think any older male horse stayed away from a race because Blame was in it. No one even realize how good he might be until his third race of the season when he won the G1 Whitney. I am certain many stayed away from racing Zenyatta. So, for me, the notion that just because of head to head competition Blame had the edge on Zenyatta is mistaken. I would agree all things being equal, but I do not think they are.

I think if you had any female horse with the single year record that Zenyatta had...5 G1 wins...that entered the BC Classic stepping up in class...against a horse with Blame's resume and finished as Zenyatta did...that horse would be as deserving as Blame for HOTY and would receive many votes (no matter what happened in preceding years) if they were the two best horses for the year. Would the horse win HOTY? I do not know. Perhaps not. But I certainly believe the horse would be in contention for the award.

I also understand what you are saying about some years, HOTY should not be awarded, and perhaps the other older male awards should not be awarded because they diminish the greats whose resumes are so much more substantial than some of the recent winners. However, the human race is all about celebrating excellence no matter how stunning or mediocre that excellence happens to be for one particular year. And because it is difficult to even compare award winners from year to year, let alone, decade to decade, I think it is fine to issue such awards because those who are truly involved in the sport understand the context, and those who are not, well they are unlikely to ever understand it.

I truly enjoyed Havre De Grace's year of racing. Perhaps had she remained healthy and at the top of her game Blind Luck would have been champion female and HOTY. Perhaps not. I appreciated what Mr. Porter did with Havre De Grace in challenging her against males in the Woodward Stakes. Lady Secret won HOTY in 1986 after besting the males in the Whitney Stakes. This, after she lost at the wire to Blind Luck. This type of sportsmanship should be rewarded. All things being equal fillies and males are not equal on the track. So when fillies step up in class, particularly in the US, their efforts should be rewarded if they are successful. This is why, in context, I found Havre De Grace to be a worthy contender for HOTY.

In my thread on Cigar, I called him great...because I do not believe we will ever see another horse like him again. That's context. However, I do hope to continue to be able to enjoy excellence in horse racing and see it rewarded even if the level of excellence is diminished from what it once was. And I hope to experience the same excitement seeing horses, whether I own them or not, run and succeed, and sometimes not succeed.

These are graceful, elegant, and mighty creatures that we are privileged to be able to witness in their glory on the race track. Seeing them is a true gift.

"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

#22
Speaking of greats, I wonder if we will ever see a horse like Zenyatta again.

Many people thought Royal Delta could win against males. I am sorry that we never saw her compete against males in the US, because I think she would have fared better than she did in the Dubai World Cup. I understand why they tried that race - since they had just spent a great deal of money for the horse - but the impact on the horse was evident in her stateside performances, particularly after the second visit.

I thought Close Hatches and even perhaps Untapable could defeat males. I still do. However, in the US it is a rare occurrence that a filly or mare takes on the males in a G1 race. These special events need to be savored. And when the mare succeeds, the American audience (read Eclipse voters) rightfully rewards such success. This happened to take place in 2009, 2010 and 2011. It may not happen again for years, if ever. It has never happened before. And since the award was given 12 times to fillies/mares since 1887 (127 years) I do not think there is a risk of the award being frivolously issued to females since it amounts to one female every 10 years (7 in the last 63.5 years and 5 in the first 63.5 years) so not really out of balance.

2011 Havre De Grace
2010 Zenyatta
2009 Rachel Alexandra
2002 Azeri
1986 Lady Secret
1983 All Along
1965 Moccasin (Turf and Sports Digest/Thoroughbred Racing Association) DRF went with the gelding Roman Brother that year
1945 Twilight Tear
1944 Busher
1915 Regret
1904 Beldame
1899 Imp

And every eligible female HOTY recipient, but Moccasin, is in the US Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame.

I think we can agree that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will make the Hall of Fame. Havre De Grace, probably not. However, I do not believe that every male HOTY is in the Hall of Fame. Just like there are likely other fillies and mares in the Hall of Fame like Bayakoa and Ashado that did not win HOTY.   
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

curtis

Quote from: Man o Taz on October 09, 2014, 06:25:39 AM
I understand what you are saying about Zenyatta and Blame - head to head - Blame has the edge. My point is that when a horse steps up in class and does as well as she does on the other horse's home track...its a draw. Otherwise, the winner of the BC Classic would be crowned HOTY every year which I truly believe would be a mistake. I do agree that the Breeders Cup has not been all good for the sport. I think part of the good is the attention it gives - calling something a championship and backing it up with the most lucrative purses - attracts public attention. Part of the bad is as you note. However, when you look at Zenyatta's record in 2010 exclusively outside of the BC Classic vs. Blame's I believe it is superior.

Some of the best horse's in their class have long had problems attracting the best of the best to compete against them. I do not think any older male horse stayed away from a race because Blame was in it. No one even realize how good he might be until his third race of the season when he won the G1 Whitney. I am certain many stayed away from racing Zenyatta. So, for me, the notion that just because of head to head competition Blame had the edge on Zenyatta is mistaken. I would agree all things being equal, but I do not think they are.

I think if you had any female horse with the single year record that Zenyatta had...5 G1 wins...that entered the BC Classic stepping up in class...against a horse with Blame's resume and finished as Zenyatta did...that horse would be as deserving as Blame for HOTY and would receive many votes (no matter what happened in preceding years) if they were the two best horses for the year. Would the horse win HOTY? I do not know. Perhaps not. But I certainly believe the horse would be in contention for the award.

I also understand what you are saying about some years, HOTY should not be awarded, and perhaps the other older male awards should not be awarded because they diminish the greats whose resumes are so much more substantial than some of the recent winners. However, the human race is all about celebrating excellence no matter how stunning or mediocre that excellence happens to be for one particular year. And because it is difficult to even compare award winners from year to year, let alone, decade to decade, I think it is fine to issue such awards because those who are truly involved in the sport understand the context, and those who are not, well they are unlikely to ever understand it.

I truly enjoyed Havre De Grace's year of racing. Perhaps had she remained healthy and at the top of her game Blind Luck would have been champion female and HOTY. Perhaps not. I appreciated what Mr. Porter did with Havre De Grace in challenging her against males in the Woodward Stakes. Lady Secret won HOTY in 1986 after besting the males in the Whitney Stakes. This, after she lost at the wire to Blind Luck. This type of sportsmanship should be rewarded. All things being equal fillies and males are not equal on the track. So when fillies step up in class, particularly in the US, their efforts should be rewarded if they are successful. This is why, in context, I found Havre De Grace to be a worthy contender for HOTY.

In my thread on Cigar, I called him great...because I do not believe we will ever see another horse like him again. That's context. However, I do hope to continue to be able to enjoy excellence in horse racing and see it rewarded even if the level of excellence is diminished from what it once was. And I hope to experience the same excitement seeing horses, whether I own them or not, run and succeed, and sometimes not succeed.

These are graceful, elegant, and mighty creatures that we are privileged to be able to witness in their glory on the race track. Seeing them is a true gift.

I don't believe this nor did I say it.  However, when the BC Classic sets up like it did in 2010 where any of four horses would have most likely been Horse of the Year--Blame, Quality Road, Zenyatta and, to a lesser extent, Lookin at Lucky--with a win, then whoever wins should garner the award.  Where the race is run is irrelevant since it has to be raced somewhere.  I wouldn't have held it against Quality Road had the race been run at Gulfstream nor did I discount Zenyatta for winning it the year before at Santa Anita.  If you didn't notice Blame until the Whitney you weren't paying attention since he pretty much tipped his mitt in the Clark the previous year.  Team Zenyatta had a golden opportunity to seperate her from the pack by competing in either or both the Big 'Cap and the Hollywood Gold Cup.  Since she reputedly had such disdain for the Del Mar surface, she could have shipped to Saratoga and either tried the Woodward or the Personal Ensign.  Eugene Klein and D. Wayne Lukas were very sporting with Lady's Secret.  They traversed the country and defeated her two main male rivals along the way.  She was greatly deserving of the award.  The Mosses and Shirreffs were not nearly as sporting.  They hid in races she was hugely favored to win and rolled the dice in the BC.  I do know they shipped to Oaklawn to run against Rachel Alexandra but I don't really think they were afraid of any mare.  They rolled snake eyes and were still given a reprieve.  Zenyatta won, in my opinion, for other, more nebulous reasons, e.g. boosting interest and attendance making the award needlessly subjective.  She has been good for the sport and that is commendable.  I suppose the way that was chosen to commend her was to honor her with Horse of the Year because she didn't do it solely on the track.

Cigar was great for the reasons that I'll always hesitate to fully anoint Zenyatta, his connections allowed him to be.  The closest horse I can put in Cigar's category since he retired would be Curlin.  I do think that Skip Away and, to a lesser extent, Silver Charm were also campaigned aggressively and performed well under the conditions. 

Man o Taz

#24
Fair points. Sorry to misconstrue your points.

Regarding Zenyatta shipping to Saratoga, this was certainly an option in 2009 and 2010. I think this may be part of the reason that Mr. Shirreffs has moved his tack in the summers to Saratoga and Belmont with Cozmic One and others. Remember in 2009, Zenyatta's connections were prepared to take on Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Beldame that year at Belmont Park, but Rachel was retired for the year after her impressive Woodward Stakes victory. Remember also in 2009 Zenyatta was supposed to run at Churchill Downs, but was scratched at the last minute because of the weather/track. Then in 2010, on her return from her third victory in the G1 Apple Blossom she lost a lot of weight and her connections were skeptical about shipping her other than for the BC Classic. I have no problem with connections protecting the interests of the horse. I think we can agree that Mr. Lukas has a different philosophy when it comes to racing horses than Mr. Shirreffs does. Certainly, Mr. Shirreffs is more cautious. As a result, despite having a much smaller barn than Mr. Lukas he has had a lot of success. So a comparison with Lady Secret may not fit so well especially given that it was almost two decades prior to Zenyatta's entry upon the scene.

I did notice Blame in the 2009 Clark Handicap. I watched all of Einstein's races when he was still running.

However, to me Blame did not do anything visually impressive in 2010 UNTIL he won the G1 Whitney over Quality Road.

The horses he faced in the G3 Don Schaefer were No Advantage, Timber Reserve, Bullsbay, Flying Private, Edgewater and Understatement.
If the racing secretary thought Blame was such a hot horse, why was he assigned 118 like all the other entrants except Understatement? Understatement on the basis of winning two ungraded stakes at Aqueduct gets high weight over a G2 winning horse his last out and carries six pounds more than the field? Timber Reserve and Flying Private were graded stakes placed. Same with No Advantage until the following year. Bullsbay was a year away from his best year in 2009 when he won the Whitney. Edgewater was an allowance winner.

In the Stephen Foster, Blame beat Battle Plan who was a graded stakes winning horse in 2010 - but who suffered a career ending injury in that race, General Quarters who never won a graded stakes on dirt after his Sam Davis win at 3, Giant Oak who would show his best form later in the year, Macho Again who, like Bullsbay was on the downward track of his career, and other minor stakes winning horses.

This is why I say it was not until the Whitney that I saw anything from Blame that showed that he could possibly win the older horse division that year since none of the horses (other than Battle Plan) that he had faced that year had any chance to win the older horse division. Quality Road was the leader and did. And his best distance was 7-9 furlongs and he was hot. 

And I agree on Cigar. Zenyatta is no Cigar. Holy Bull I believe can be mentioned with Cigar along with those you mentioned.
       
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

curtis

Quote from: Man o Taz on October 09, 2014, 01:42:54 PM
Fair points. Sorry to misconstrue your points.

Regarding Zenyatta shipping to Saratoga, this was certainly an option in 2009 and 2010. I think this may be part of the reason that Mr. Shirreffs has moved his tack in the summers to Saratoga and Belmont with Cozmic One and others. Remember in 2009, Zenyatta's connections were prepared to take on Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Beldame that year at Belmont Park, but Rachel was retired for the year after her impressive Woodward Stakes victory. Remember also in 2009 Zenyatta was supposed to run at Churchill Downs, but was scratched at the last minute because of the weather/track. Then in 2010, on her return from her third victory in the G1 Apple Blossom she lost a lot of weight and her connections were skeptical about shipping her other than for the BC Classic. I have no problem with connections protecting the interests of the horse. I think we can agree that Mr. Lukas has a different philosophy when it comes to racing horses than Mr. Shirreffs does. Certainly, Mr. Shirreffs is more cautious. As a result, despite having a much smaller barn than Mr. Lukas he has had a lot of success. So a comparison with Lady Secret may not fit so well especially given that it was almost two decades prior to Zenyatta's entry upon the scene.

I did notice Blame in the 2009 Clark Handicap. I watched all of Einstein's races when he was still running.

However, to me Blame did not do anything visually impressive in 2010 UNTIL he won the G1 Whitney over Quality Road.

The horses he faced in the G3 Don Schaefer were No Advantage, Timber Reserve, Bullsbay, Flying Private, Edgewater and Understatement.
If the racing secretary thought Blame was such a hot horse, why was he assigned 118 like all the other entrants except Understatement? Understatement on the basis of winning two ungraded stakes at Aqueduct gets high weight over a G2 winning horse his last out and carries six pounds more than the field? Timber Reserve and Flying Private were graded stakes placed. Same with No Advantage until the following year. Bullsbay was a year away from his best year in 2009 when he won the Whitney. Edgewater was an allowance winner.


In the Stephen Foster, Blame beat Battle Plan who was a graded stakes winning horse in 2010 - but who suffered a career ending injury in that race, General Quarters who never won a graded stakes on dirt after his Sam Davis win at 3, Giant Oak who would show his best form later in the year, Macho Again who, like Bullsbay was on the downward track of his career, and other minor stakes winning horses.

This is why I say it was not until the Whitney that I saw anything from Blame that showed that he could possibly win the older horse division that year since none of the horses (other than Battle Plan) that he had faced that year had any chance to win the older horse division. Quality Road was the leader and did. And his best distance was 7-9 furlongs and he was hot. 

And I agree on Cigar. Zenyatta is no Cigar. Holy Bull I believe can be mentioned with Cigar along with those you mentioned.
     
I've noticed this about some other posts you've made regarding other races (the PA Derby perhaps?).  Not all named feature races are handicaps.  Some are run under allowance or stakes conditions.  The Schaefer is a stakes race which means the racing secretary has nothing to do with the weight assigned to the entrants except to calculate it.  The weights are based on money won and or the recency of the money won.  It usually also has a proviso based on how the money was won, e.g. by winning.  Understatement, who coincidentally is now standing at stud up here in the Northwest, had won a couple of ungraded races, as you mentioned, that winter at Aqueduct and he received what was probably the maximum weight of 124.  The others were given weight off commensurate with the race conditions.  Since Blame had not run since the previous November, he qualified at the minimum which was 118.  The Foster was a handicap and Blame was actually assigned more weight than Battle Plan who was thought to be a better horse at the time by many bettors.  This is why Bayern and California Chrome carried the same weight in the aforementioned PA Derby. 

As for Zenyatta I was referring to 2010 so I'm not going to give her brownie points for scratching out at Churchill in 2009.  Connections say a lot of things.  Things like we're willing to go to the Beldame in 2009 or you know Zenyatta really dislikes Del Mar .  Part of protecting your horse is not running them on a surface you know they don't like, especially when there are other options such as running on dirt when you proclaim she's as good or better on that surface.  They also could have stayed right in their backyard and entered the Santa Anita Handicap--in which she would have received a pretty good weight break due to her gender and the time of the year it is run--and the Hollywood Gold Cup which was run at scale weights.  They were protecting Zenyatta's record until that last roll of the dice at Churchill Downs.  This is all well and good since she is their horse.  The campaign just wasn't worthy of Horse of the Year in my opinion.

Man o Taz

Quote from: curtis on October 10, 2014, 04:06:44 PM
I've noticed this about some other posts you've made regarding other races (the PA Derby perhaps?).  Not all named feature races are handicaps.  Some are run under allowance or stakes conditions.  The Schaefer is a stakes race which means the racing secretary has nothing to do with the weight assigned to the entrants except to calculate it.  The weights are based on money won and or the recency of the money won.  It usually also has a proviso based on how the money was won, e.g. by winning.  Understatement, who coincidentally is now standing at stud up here in the Northwest, had won a couple of ungraded races, as you mentioned, that winter at Aqueduct and he received what was probably the maximum weight of 124.  The others were given weight off commensurate with the race conditions.  Since Blame had not run since the previous November, he qualified at the minimum which was 118.  The Foster was a handicap and Blame was actually assigned more weight than Battle Plan who was thought to be a better horse at the time by many bettors.  This is why Bayern and California Chrome carried the same weight in the aforementioned PA Derby. 

Thanks for the education. One of these days I am going to read a book on handicapping.

QuoteAs for Zenyatta I was referring to 2010 so I'm not going to give her brownie points for scratching out at Churchill in 2009.  Connections say a lot of things.  Things like we're willing to go to the Beldame in 2009 or you know Zenyatta really dislikes Del Mar .  Part of protecting your horse is not running them on a surface you know they don't like, especially when there are other options such as running on dirt when you proclaim she's as good or better on that surface.

Very true. However, in 2010 there was the issue of her losing a substantial amount of weight shipping out to the Apple Blossom. So, while they could have shipped her to run on dirt again outside the state of California, weighing the pros and cons they opted to stay in California. I think based upon her performance in the Classic they made the right move -since she performed well despite the challenges she faced. However, who knows, had she been tested against males earlier in the year perhaps she would have fared even better in the Classic, or she may have been over the top.

QuoteThey also could have stayed right in their backyard and entered the Santa Anita Handicap--in which she would have received a pretty good weight break due to her gender and the time of the year it is run--and the Hollywood Gold Cup which was run at scale weights.  They were protecting Zenyatta's record until that last roll of the dice at Churchill Downs.  This is all well and good since she is their horse.  The campaign just wasn't worthy of Horse of the Year in my opinion.

I think the Santa Anita Handicap would have been a bit much for her at that stage of the year. However, the Hollywood Gold Cup as a follow-up to either the Vanity or the Apple Blossom would have made sense. Then again, I think the Mosses wisely judged that taking on males should be an infrequent exercise for their mare - not because she couldn't compete with them (she did beat all but one at Churchill Downs in the BC Classic) but because they had a year long plan which included entering all G1 races for fillies in advance of the classic and then stepping up once in the Breeders Cup Classic. This assured that she would hopefully be a combination of fit and fresh for the BC Classic, and she was.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether or not her HOTY win was deserving or not. 
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

Was the $1,000,00 Shadwell Turf Mile Wise Dan's last race?

http://www.drf.com/news/wise-dan-injured-will-miss-breeders-cup
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

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