California Chrome Wins The Kentucky Derby

[curtis]

Well, we have seen that the road to Horse of the Year is a mile long and is covered with turf.

[The Tin Man]

Well, we have seen that the road to Horse of the Year is a mile long and is covered with turf.

As far as I've heard, Horse Of The Year is not the goal ... it would be gravy.

An Eclipse for top 3 year old is the focus from what I've been told.

[Man o Taz]

I see what you are saying but I disagree with a few points.  I don't think you can equate prepping for the Derby with prepping for the Pacific Classic--especially because of the upcoming surface change, this being it's lame duck running on synthetic.  The Derby has the stiffest competition available.

I think we can agree that the Derby has the stiffest three year old competition available - not the stiffest overall competition available.

The comparison is prepping for a 10 furlong race. And I agree there is little comparison because one is a three year old competition and one is open company.

This is a big ask because it involves a lightly raced three year old stepping up to take on elders without having built a strong bottom to him.

The Pacific Classic has, since the advent of Polytrack, been devoid of much A-list depth.  This year looks to be especially light. 

I think I acknowledged that the competition might be light this year and as a result a reason why Mr. Hollendorfer was attempting it. However, I also hope we can agree that if Game On Dude runs back to his performance in the Santa Anita Handicap this year or the PC last year, Shared Belief with a couple of preps against even some inconsistent older division horses has little chance.

Since Shared Belief is proven on synthetic, I would think this is the perfect opportunity to try him at 10f versus older.  Hollendorfer will more than likely run some speed horse to bother Game on Dude only now he will have a horse to track them and take advantage unlike in the San Antonio and Gold Cup. 

I would imagine Fury will be in the mix. However, while Shared Belief may have won a minor stakes race over the surface, I do not know that that necessarily means that he is proven on THIS synthetic.

I know your just reporting a rumor but I never believed that Zenyatta hated Polytrack.  The only reason a horse hates a surface is if they are not comfortable on it and so they go into survival mode and protect themselves by slowing down--and not just to the extent in which they just eke out a win.  The only time I ever saw anything remotely like this happen to Zenyatta was in the early stages of her final race.  Her preference may have been the firmer synthetics at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park but she performed well enough at Del Mar.

It was not a rumor. It was a quote by Mr. Shirreffs in the press. It noted that she tolerated the polytrack surface but did not like it at all at one point refusing to train over it. Good horses do that.

It's taken them a few years but I believe that Del Mar has finally figured out how to make Polytrack a consistent surface in their locale.  If not for the reasons of having to redo the base and badly wanting a Breeder's Cup, Del Mar would probably be best served to keep the Polytrack or find a reasonable facsimile.  I would have no qualms about running Shared Belief over the surface.   

And neither would I if the surface were the only issue.

How many three year olds have won the Pacific Classic with it being their first 10 furlong race coming off two prep races for the year?

I do not believe there is anyone who has done that.

Dullahan recently won the race setting the stakes and I think the track record, but he had raced numerous times that year finishing third in the Kentucky Derby and also running in the Belmont Stakes.

So this is why I suggest its quite a big ask for him. Can he win? Yes. But not if all the horses in the race bring their A-game IMHO. 

Would I like him to win? Of course. I am a huge fan of the horse (and his connections as a matter of fact). He topped my Derby list until it was clear he would not be able to compete in the race.

And I have said that I defer to the judgment of his connections. They know the horse, the track, and horse racing much better than I do.

I just want the horse to do well (and I want to see him run again in person before he is retired if that is not patently obvious SMILE).
   

[Senator L]

I don't know why people are worried about Tonalist, he has won
the Peter Pan and the Belmont.
California Chrome has won: the California Derby, the San Felipe the Santa Anita Derby
The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness
Just don't see him running the tables and if he did he would have to win at least (3) more
by open lengths to dethrone JR
Shared Belief is another story :chickendance:

[Man o Taz]

Good point.

And there is another dilemma. While many of us believe that CC is the better horse, by running against Tonalist one opens the risk to losing twice to him and starting to allow doubt to creep into the mix. CC had an excuse - he was injured in the gate. To only have the injury cause him to lose by two furlongs was miraculous.

Whereas, if you just follow your own schedule and race your races - even not meeting Tonalist again you are hands down the top three year old UNLESS Tonalist should sweep his next three races (really his last two before the BC - The Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup).

It will be interesting to see if there are any challengers to Tonalist in the Travers Stakes. His BSF in the Belmont was 100 - so speed wise his effort was not that impressive, but he did win. Will Commissioner turn the tables on him in the Jim Dandy and the Travers. Will Tonalilst opt for the Pennsylvania Derby? It is more money - and running two 10 furlong races in a row may not be what his connections are looking for. 

[Delamont]

 I know I'm a complete outsider, but...Junior is CC's barn name?

Awwwww.....   

[Man o Taz]

Yes. I actually like Chromy myself as I enjoyed Streety for Street Sense, and Screety for Discreet Cat.

[Delamont]

Thanks.  I like it!