Quote from: The Tin Man on July 06, 2014, 10:30:00 PM
The "gossip" is directly from the owner/trainer ... although I'm not sure why info directly from the owner/trainer would be considered "gossip" ... seems like a pretty good source to me.
Also ... for those speculating that there will be more than 1 prep race before the BC ... not gonna happen unless they do a total 180 ... definitely not in the plans as of right now.
Did they elaborate as to which three races? Only two make much sense--The Classic and the Dirt Mile, I would assume the other would be the Mile given Lucky Pulpit's affection for turf. The reason I'm referring to it as gossip is because, I don't believe these people are really telling you anything credible. I'm not doubting that you're reporting what they are telling you, just its validity.
For instance, a few weeks ago you reported that the connections didn't care about awards only what was best for the horse. Now they are going to run in one prep and then a Breeder's Cup race and in that race they are going to chase Tonalist and or Shared Belief? What is the point unless you are after an Eclipse award? Here is another scenario. Say Shared Belief comes up with a little problem or dislikes the new and, I assume, improved Santa Anita dirt as much as the old stuff. I'm no huge fan of Team Dorf but I doubt he's going to throw a three-year-old gelding to the wolves--especially one with Shared Belief's future earning potential. So he finds another spot for his horse and saves him for another Breeder's Cup. Tonalist may not be at home on the type of glib surface for which Santa Anita is known and the connections decide that they might want to try the Breeder's Cup Turf--it's been done before look up Prized in 1989. Clement, like Drysdale with Prized, knows how to win a big turf race. So evidently California Chrome is going to run a 12f turf race off of a presumed 1 mile dirt prep? If you want to do what is best for the horse run him in a prep at the Los Al fall meeting and then go the Malibu, Strub route.
My opinion is that the only Breeder's Cup race that makes sense to target, if you're hell-bent on going that route, is the Classic. Winning it will clinch Horse of the Year and your stiffest competition will more than likely come from Will Take Charge who is always a slave to race shape due to his running style. I suppose Mucho Macho Man could rejuvenate once again but I wouldn't count on it and then there is the aforementioned Tonalist whose running style at Santa Anita will probably mimic Will Take Charge. Palace Malice, I think could be suspect going 10f in a race as hot as the BC Classic will be from gate to wire. Shared Belief in my opinion, is the wild card. I think a horse has to learn to run 10f so such a prep like the Pacific Classic would be good for him as the race looks like it come up a little light this year.
At any rate Tin Man, I don't mean to give you a hard time and I always love your enthusiasm. I have been meaning to post some current pictures of Border Run. He's doing so well he might make a comeback of his own in the show ring, at age 26, if my daughter's quarter horse can't get over his little problem in time for the county fair. No matter what the horse is doing they'll tell you what's best, you just have to listen.
