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- Maiden
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A few random thoughts
Marathon
Despite the chaos that is the Past Performances for this group I'm not sure that this is the right place for a real longshot. There is a real possibility that each member of this field will just take enough money to keep things in balance. I imagine that most horses will be between 5/1-12/1. No one stands out as a particularly good play but neither does anyone look like a bad play on paper.
Dirt Mile
I really like Taptowne not only as a longshot but even as my primary play. If you don't trust Verrazano (which I don't) and you suspect that Goldencents is drawn a bit wide the race really opens up and personally I'm not seeing much speed in here. Taptowne could take them gate to wire.
Juvenile Fillies
I don't actually like her for the win but it seems like every year one horse who doesn't seem well suited to the distance sticks around for a piece of things. I think that horse will be She's a Tiger. She was sold out in her last by that early move and couldn't finish. A more patient ride should see her get a piece of this.
FM Turf
This race has had some odd results in the past few years. Most likely things will settle down and we'll have some more logical winners but in the pattern of some of the more recent odd ball winners it might be worth looking at Qushchi. It seems odd that Motion would send her on one hand but at the same time he has shocked this race before.
FM Sprint
In a race without any speed at all Ismene has a decent chance of shocking a few people. If they leave her alone she might not be as easy to catch as she should be but since all the heavy hitters prefer to come from off the pace it's possible that no one will commit early. Advantage lone speed.
Juvenile
My personal figures suggest that the Juvenile is slow this year. So slow that you have to go back to 2003 to find its equal. Slow races often produce strange results rather than being slanted in favor of the few fast entrants. Throw in a Lasix ban and we could have some real chaos. I'm looking for a stranger in the Juvenile and Diamond Bachelor, Mexikoma and Smarty's Echo are leading the line in that respect. All 3 will be in my mix for this race.
Mile
Silentio would be a horse that I would use underneath some of the big names in this race. Namely Wise Dan and Obviously. Silentio is a miler and if he gets a little pace to run at he could easily fill out of the bottom of a trifecta. He's is pretty fresh and his preparation has been good. I imagine that he'll be the second longest shot on the board.
