Quote from: Dusty on January 06, 2017, 11:04:05 PM
REALLY??? Songbird for HOY>>>>
I was not surprised by that at all. In fact, I think that she has a stronger case than Arrogate for the award.
I have a fairly routine way of examining year end awards. The first test is a horse's own division. Songbird raced 8 times. She was undefeated in her division in stakes company every time.
She raced in 5 G1 races - 4 against the best of her division and one against the best filies and mares running. She did very well. There is no doubt that she deserves champion 3 year old.
Arrogate on the other hand lost a race. It was not a stakes race. It was not against the best horses in the division.
Arrogate did not face stakes company until late August.
He raced in two stakes races.
He was spectacular.
But there is a strong case that can be made that Exaggertaor with his campaign deserves champion 3 year old more than Arrogate does. Do I totally agree with it? No. It is flawed, but there is no doubt that Exaggerator had a much tougher campaign than Arrogate did.
The next criteria I look at is the length of the campaign. Was the horse campaigned in the best races for the division that they were in throughtout the year?
Songbird. Yes.
Arrogate. Clearly no. As noted, he entered his first stakes race in late August. And he was in two races. And his connections passed on running post-Breeders Cup.
The final criteria for me is how a horse does outside of his division. Here the edge clearly goes to Arrogate, over Songbird. And this is why most people have him as not only champion three year old, but likely ahead of Songbird in the HOTY tally.
For me, I would have placed Tepin and Songbird ahead of Arrogate for HOTY because I place a great deal of emphasis on a year long campaign and Arrogate did not campaign until late August for two months of the year....that is not a campaign unless there are not any other worthy horses out there and there are.
In fact, I would even go so far to say that Beholder with 2 G1 wins had a stronger HOTY campaign than Arrogate did. She stepped out of her divison and did not win, but she ran very well. She competed in a much stronger division than Arrogate did. She face stronger competition in multiple races when that compeition was at their best. Arrogate's best 3 year old competition in Travers was not at their best at all. They finished up the track.
I love Arrogate and believe he is a truly special race horse. But his connections went slow with him. They should be rewarded for that and the are with the horse's health and fitness and ability to compete at such a high level. But Arrogate did not have a HOTY campaign.
While there is no set criteria for HOTY, I have never seen it as horse of the best race or an award for the best horse. I have always seen it as the horse that delivered the best campaign on the track during the year in North America. This is why I never agreed with Goldikova being 3rd in the balloting for HOTY in 2010.
