Quote from: stark on January 06, 2017, 09:42:37 AMExactly! I don't know about surprises, but there is definitely some sillyness. Lord Nelson for Older Dirt Male? Anybody other than Songbird for 3-yo Filly?
Very similar to the Academy Awards.....great memory for the winners.
Not so much for everybody else.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 06, 2017, 06:58:06 AMREALLY??? Songbird for HOY>>>>
The 2016 Eclipse Awards finalists (in alphabetical order) are:
Horse of the Year: Arrogate, California Chrome, Songbird
Two-Year-Old Male: Classic Empire, Not This Time , Practical Joke
Two-Year-Old Filly: Champagne Room, Lady Aurelia, New Money Honey
Three-Year-Old Male: Arrogate, Exaggerator , Nyquist
Three-Year-Old Filly: Cathryn Sophia, Queen's Trust, Songbird
Older Dirt Male: California Chrome, Frosted , Lord Nelson
Older Dirt Female: Beholder, Cavorting, Stellar Wind
Male Sprinter: A.P. Indian, Drefong, Lord Nelson
Female Sprinter: Finest City, Haveyougoneaway, Paulassilverlining
Male Turf Horse: Flintshire (GB), Highland Reel, Tourist
Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli, Miss Temple City, Tepin
Steeplechase Horse: Rawnaq (IRE), Scorpiancer (IRE), Top Striker
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Spendthrift Farm
Breeder: Clearsky Farms, Darley, WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Mark Casse
Jockey: Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz, Mike Smith
Apprentice Jockey: Kevin Gomez, Lane Luzzi, Luis Ocasio
Surprises?
I did not see any.
Quote from: stark on January 06, 2017, 09:42:37 AM
Very similar to the Academy Awards.....great memory for the winners.
Not so much for everybody else.
Quote from: Dusty on January 06, 2017, 11:04:05 PM
REALLY??? Songbird for HOY>>>>
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 09, 2017, 08:25:23 AM
I was not surprised by that at all. In fact, I think that she has a stronger case than Arrogate for the award.
I have a fairly routine way of examining year end awards. The first test is a horse's own division. Songbird raced 8 times. She was undefeated in her division in stakes company every time.
She raced in 5 G1 races - 4 against the best of her division and one against the best filies and mares running. She did very well. There is no doubt that she deserves champion 3 year old.
Arrogate on the other hand lost a race. It was not a stakes race. It was not against the best horses in the division.
Arrogate did not face stakes company until late August.
He raced in two stakes races.
He was spectacular.
But there is a strong case that can be made that Exaggertaor with his campaign deserves champion 3 year old more than Arrogate does. Do I totally agree with it? No. It is flawed, but there is no doubt that Exaggerator had a much tougher campaign than Arrogate did.
The next criteria I look at is the length of the campaign. Was the horse campaigned in the best races for the division that they were in throughtout the year?
Songbird. Yes.
Arrogate. Clearly no. As noted, he entered his first stakes race in late August. And he was in two races. And his connections passed on running post-Breeders Cup.
The final criteria for me is how a horse does outside of his division. Here the edge clearly goes to Arrogate, over Songbird. And this is why most people have him as not only champion three year old, but likely ahead of Songbird in the HOTY tally.
For me, I would have placed Tepin and Songbird ahead of Arrogate for HOTY because I place a great deal of emphasis on a year long campaign and Arrogate did not campaign until late August for two months of the year....that is not a campaign unless there are not any other worthy horses out there and there are.
In fact, I would even go so far to say that Beholder with 2 G1 wins had a stronger HOTY campaign than Arrogate did. She stepped out of her divison and did not win, but she ran very well. She competed in a much stronger division than Arrogate did. She face stronger competition in multiple races when that compeition was at their best. Arrogate's best 3 year old competition in Travers was not at their best at all. They finished up the track.
I love Arrogate and believe he is a truly special race horse. But his connections went slow with him. They should be rewarded for that and the are with the horse's health and fitness and ability to compete at such a high level. But Arrogate did not have a HOTY campaign.
While there is no set criteria for HOTY, I have never seen it as horse of the best race or an award for the best horse. I have always seen it as the horse that delivered the best campaign on the track during the year in North America. This is why I never agreed with Goldikova being 3rd in the balloting for HOTY in 2010.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 09, 2017, 08:25:23 AMSo then you're fine with a claimer going 12 for 12 and being named Horse of the Year? It would be hard to argue against that campaign, wouldn't it?
I was not surprised by that at all. In fact, I think that she has a stronger case than Arrogate for the award.
I have a fairly routine way of examining year end awards. The first test is a horse's own division. Songbird raced 8 times. She was undefeated in her division in stakes company every time.
She raced in 5 G1 races - 4 against the best of her division and one against the best filies and mares running. She did very well. There is no doubt that she deserves champion 3 year old.
Arrogate on the other hand lost a race. It was not a stakes race. It was not against the best horses in the division.
Arrogate did not face stakes company until late August.
He raced in two stakes races.
He was spectacular.
But there is a strong case that can be made that Exaggertaor with his campaign deserves champion 3 year old more than Arrogate does. Do I totally agree with it? No. It is flawed, but there is no doubt that Exaggerator had a much tougher campaign than Arrogate did.
The next criteria I look at is the length of the campaign. Was the horse campaigned in the best races for the division that they were in throughtout the year?
Songbird. Yes.
Arrogate. Clearly no. As noted, he entered his first stakes race in late August. And he was in two races. And his connections passed on running post-Breeders Cup.
The final criteria for me is how a horse does outside of his division. Here the edge clearly goes to Arrogate, over Songbird. And this is why most people have him as not only champion three year old, but likely ahead of Songbird in the HOTY tally.
For me, I would have placed Tepin and Songbird ahead of Arrogate for HOTY because I place a great deal of emphasis on a year long campaign and Arrogate did not campaign until late August for two months of the year....that is not a campaign unless there are not any other worthy horses out there and there are.
In fact, I would even go so far to say that Beholder with 2 G1 wins had a stronger HOTY campaign than Arrogate did. She stepped out of her divison and did not win, but she ran very well. She competed in a much stronger division than Arrogate did. She face stronger competition in multiple races when that compeition was at their best. Arrogate's best 3 year old competition in Travers was not at their best at all. They finished up the track.
I love Arrogate and believe he is a truly special race horse. But his connections went slow with him. They should be rewarded for that and the are with the horse's health and fitness and ability to compete at such a high level. But Arrogate did not have a HOTY campaign.
While there is no set criteria for HOTY, I have never seen it as horse of the best race or an award for the best horse. I have always seen it as the horse that delivered the best campaign on the track during the year in North America. This is why I never agreed with Goldikova being 3rd in the balloting for HOTY in 2010.
Quote from: curtis on January 14, 2017, 12:25:35 PM
So then you're fine with a claimer going 12 for 12 and being named Horse of the Year? It would be hard to argue against that campaign, wouldn't it?
Horse of the Year has changed throughout the BC era. Pre BC era, it was usually the best horse and that was the mentality that voters used when voting.
Quote from: curtis on January 14, 2017, 12:25:35 PM
So then you're fine with a claimer going 12 for 12 and being named Horse of the Year? It would be hard to argue against that campaign, wouldn't it?
Horse of the Year has changed throughout the BC era. Pre BC era, it was usually the best horse and that was the mentality that voters used when voting. As we have moved further and further into the BC era, horses have become specialists. Starting with 2010, it can be argued, that the award is no longer about the best horse, and unapologetically so. We compare apples to oranges, kiwi to cumquats, all the while thinking that all the fruit tastes the same. I really think the name of the award should be changed so as time goes on, we don't confuse Wise Dan with John Henry or Forego or any other multiple Horse of the Year winner who didn't just stay in very narrow types of races, especially one that does not attract the top horses in North America.
I think your assessment of Arrogate's campaign and accomplishments are fundamentally flawed. California Chrome will win the award, I have no doubt, and I believe a great case can be made that he deserves it. He ran in the best races, save for that public workout just before Christmas, against top competition throughout the year and all but once was the best horse. I think Arrogate, the horse that beat him on the square, is one of the more special horses I've seen in quite a while. I don't have a vote but if I did, I couldn't let that go, Arrogate is my Horse of the Year.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on January 14, 2017, 02:36:05 PMUntil a few years ago I couldn't think of a niche type like Wise Dan winning, obviously things evolve.
I can't think of a single example of a Horse of the Year only winning one or two stakes races in the year they received that award.
Also, if a horse is able to win 12 races in a row, it might start out in the claiming ranks, but would definitely be moved up its conditions into stakes. The closest real example I can think of to your scenario is Horse of the Year Charismatic, who didn't start winning stakes until he was shipped to Keeneland where he won the Lexington Stakes. He then won the Derby and Preakness before being injured in that memorable Belmont and was retired. That year, 1999, the Breeders Cup Classic was won by Cat Thief, who also won the Swaps Stakes. So 2 Gr1 wins, one of which was the BCC, were not enough to earn Cat Thief honors as champion 3-yr-old colt or HOTY. Those honors went to Charismatic.
Quote from: Dusty on January 14, 2017, 09:39:04 PMI said Chrome would win the award. Arrogate was campaigned the way he needed to be. I'm not going to penalize for horsemanship.
Oh my so you just blew your own argument - no WAY is Arrogate HOY - not with his campaign which was ----WHAT???
Quote from: curtis on January 14, 2017, 12:25:35 PMIs that what I said?
So then you're fine with a claimer going 12 for 12 and being named Horse of the Year? It would be hard to argue against that campaign, wouldn't it?
Horse of the Year has changed throughout the BC era. Pre BC era, it was usually the best horse and that was the mentality that voters used when voting. As we have moved further and further into the BC era, horses have become specialists. Starting with 2010, it can be argued, that the award is no longer about the best horse, and unapologetically so. We compare apples to oranges, kiwi to cumquats, all the while thinking that all the fruit tastes the same. I really think the name of the award should be changed so as time goes on, we don't confuse Wise Dan with John Henry or Forego or any other multiple Horse of the Year winner who didn't just stay in very narrow types of races, especially one that does not attract the top horses in North America.
I think your assessment of Arrogate's campaign and accomplishments are fundamentally flawed. California Chrome will win the award, I have no doubt, and I believe a great case can be made that he deserves it. He ran in the best races, save for that public workout just before Christmas, against top competition throughout the year and all but once was the best horse. I think Arrogate, the horse that beat him on the square, is one of the more special horses I've seen in quite a while. I don't have a vote but if I did, I couldn't let that go, Arrogate is my Horse of the Year.