2017 Pegasus Stakes

[Man o Taz]

I wonder if Gun Runner does well here if he might point to the Pegasus.

He did run very fast at Churchill in the Matt Winn.

I know he missed at Parx, but he won the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs. 

Dream field:
Anchor Down
Arrogate
Beholder
California Chrome
Dortmund
Effinex
Firing Line
Found
Frosted
Gun Runner
Noble Bird
Runhappy
Shaman Ghost

[stark]

Could the million dollar stalls be going on sale now?

McIngvale-Runhappy
Ruis-Daughter
Reddam-Nyquist

and a couple others might be open to offers?

[stark]

Jeremy Balan ‏@BH_JBalan  32m32 minutes ago
Art Sherman, already at Los Al to work horses, says California Chrome will train up to the Pegasus World Cup. No turnout, but some rest.

[Man o Taz]

And while it has yet to be confirmed it seemed that Arrogate was pointing there as well.

Who will the rest of the horses be?

American Freedom - He was a nice second in the Haskell and has been off since. A talented horse who could relish the Santa Anita surface if Arrogate decides to pass.

Anchor Down? - can he stretch out? He has won at 8.5 furlongs and multiples stakes races at 8 furlongs.
-Pointing to the Cigar Mile. I think this is a good sign for getting him in the gate for the Pegasus.

Beholder retired.

Comfort? He had a nice run in the Seattle Slew and then we never saw him in another race. His 2nd was strong to Frosted in the Whitney Handicap so he is a possibility.
Not in training right now. Has not worked since his win in the Seattle Slew. Too bad. Looks to be a long shot.

Connect? - He did win the Pennsylvania Derby against a decent field with a decent speed figure - one of the top ones outside of Arrogate's for the 3 year olds so maybe he gets a shot here. Pointing to the Cigar Mile which is another good sign for his making the gate in the Pegasus.

Dortmund? - I wonder what they do with him. Let  him go to the lead. We know he can run fast around two turns, though I think at 1 turn at Belmont Park in the Met Mile would be ideal for him. I actually think he could win the Jockey Club Gold Cup there. He and Hopp at the wire. Has not worked since the Breeders Cup so who knows if we see him here. I would think he would target the Native Diver, but the fact that he has not worked is not good news unless he plans to train up to the race like he did for the San Diego which for me was a career best performance by him. Or maybe they send him to the farm to rest up for maybe the Stephen Foster and a late season push.

Effinex? - he was targeting the Donn last year and just was not fit for it. He has his win in the Oaklawn Handicap over Melatonin so he can win against good company at the distance. Has not worked yet since the BC, but without Mike Smith in the irons he may not make it.

Firing Line? - Just a question of fitness. If he goes, I hope they bring him to Florida for the Hal's Hope. His best race has been at 9 furlongs in the Sunland Derby. His works are getting sharper just turning in a 4 furlong work in 48.40. If he can get his form back maybe he does make it.

Frosted? Decision time - does he race for another year?

Gun Runner? - I think he would love a one turn mile/9 furlongs like Frosted did. 9 furlongs and 2 turns might not be his best distance. But he is fast. Two works post BC and likely targeting the Clark Handicap. If he wins here and proves he can win at 9 furlongs that could make the difference.

Highland Reel? He likes the firm going...and Coolmore does have an entry.

Hoppertunity? His numbers this year are pretty good and so was his final time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but is this race too short for him? He did win last year's San Antonio at 9 furlongs. Just had a nice 5 furlong work. Wonder if he is traveling to the Clark Handicap.

Imperative? He shipped to win the Charles Town Classic and just got his career second stakes in in the Big Bear Stakes. If he wins the Native Diver this could be an option for him.

Keen Ice? He ran well in the Breeders Cup Classic finishing 3rd albeit many lengths back. He did not do well in last year's Donn Handicap, but maybe Pletcher is moving forward with him and the Hal's Hope should be an option. With the retirement of Frosted and Upstart, Keen Ice and Dortmund are the only major players left from American Pharoah's Triple Crown run. Has not worked since the Breeders Cup. I wonder if they point him to the December 17th minor stakes at Gulfstream Park to try and get him back in the winner's circle.

Melatonin? He has not won a stakes at 9 furlongs but was a close runner-up to Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap last year. He likes the lead and a fast track so Gulfstream Park may suit him well. Has not worked since BC so who knows what the plans are with him. They could train him up to the race again.

Noble Bird? - did not make the Breeders Cup, but did win the Fayette. Probably targeting the Clark Handicap with two works at Churchill recently. His best races have been at 9 furlongs. And his owners would certainly have no problem getting a spot if they want it.

Runhappy? I still think they point him here. They likely target the Hal's Hope or train him up to the race.

Shaman Ghost? - with his scratch from the BC Classic I wonder if he tries the Clark and the Pegasus. With Stronach owning him you know he is pointed to the race. Hopefully he makes it there.

Tamarkuz? Can he go two turns? He had only won graded stakes at 9 furlongs so maybe he can stretch out.

[Man o Taz]

I do not think that there is any way that Songbird runs in this race.

[Senator L]

I don't see how this race goes off. There aren't 12 horses who have similar abilities
at a 1 1/8th on the dirt where you would want to pay 1 million dollars to enter.
Is it the standard 1-5 payouts?

[stark]

As funny as it sounds, a million dollars is absolutely nothing to those that have entered, I'm quite confident they're not interested in collecting a minor award to help offset day rates.

They should make it winner-take-all and I think it would entice  a few more entrants.

[Senator L]

Rich people are cheaper than you think. In fact, the richer, the cheaper.  :chickendance: :chickendance:

[Man o Taz]

Remember, the $1 million purchase price bought those who entered several things:
1. The right to enter a horse in the race and share in the $12 million purse.
2. A portion of the media rights that will be sold for the event.
3. A portion of the handle that will be collected for the event.

Thus, the 12 purchasers - or really 10 since I think Stronach purchased 2 - could sell their interest in racing a horse for less than $1 million and retain the rights to the handle and the media rights.

[Senator L]

The problem with media rights is horse racing isn't very popular.
In Canada, they only aired (2) breeders cup races. Darts and bowling get more coverage

[Senator L]

I hope it works and at least Frank tries. It is one
promotion I don't get.

[Man o Taz]

The problem with media rights is horse racing isn't very popular.
In Canada, they only aired (2) breeders cup races. Darts and bowling get more coverage

Well, my understanding is that NBC was going to show it so those media rights have to have some value. It would probably be on NBC sports...but still more value than TVG. 

The key is Arrogate.

If he shows up there should be media interest.

If he does not then the field could be pretty bland except for Chrome.

Juddmonte has suggested a concern with it being a very long year for their horse if he runs in the Pegasus, and noting that his owner might prefer the Dubai World Cup.

[Man o Taz]

BC Classic Rematch Must Be Stronach Priority
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Ante-Post/comments/bc-classic-rematch-is-a-must-for-the-pegasus/

[Man o Taz]

Arrogate Ads New Dimension to Pegasus
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2016/11/15/arrogate-adds-new-dimension-to-pegasus-cup.aspx

Arrogate 2017 Schedule up in the air...
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/grimthorpe-arrogates-2017-racing-schedule-up-in-the-air/

[Man o Taz]

So what did we learn from this weekend's racing?

Divining Rod could be in the mix after his 2nd place finish in the Cigar Mile.

Connect should be in the race after his win in the Cigar Mile.

Gun Runner notched another win at 9 furlongs after missing twice at the distance in his last two efforts with his win in the Clark Handicap.

Shaman's Ghost ran well and could be a good choice for the Pegasus aside from his connection to Stronach.

Breaking Lucky may be a horse for the race, too.

Noble Bird had an awful trip and should not be ruled out.

Effinex will likely not make the Pegasus.

And Midnight Storm could be a contender with his win in the Native Diver.