I wonder if Gun Runner does well here if he might point to the Pegasus.
He did run very fast at Churchill in the Matt Winn.
I know he missed at Parx, but he won the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs.
Dream field:
Anchor Down
Arrogate
Beholder
California Chrome
Dortmund
Effinex
Firing Line
Found
Frosted
Gun Runner
Noble Bird
Runhappy
Shaman Ghost
Could the million dollar stalls be going on sale now?
McIngvale-Runhappy
Ruis-Daughter
Reddam-Nyquist
and a couple others might be open to offers?
Jeremy Balan @BH_JBalan 32m32 minutes ago
Art Sherman, already at Los Al to work horses, says California Chrome will train up to the Pegasus World Cup. No turnout, but some rest.
And while it has yet to be confirmed it seemed that Arrogate was pointing there as well.
Who will the rest of the horses be?
American Freedom - He was a nice second in the Haskell and has been off since. A talented horse who could relish the Santa Anita surface if Arrogate decides to pass.
Anchor Down? - can he stretch out? He has won at 8.5 furlongs and multiples stakes races at 8 furlongs.
-Pointing to the Cigar Mile. I think this is a good sign for getting him in the gate for the Pegasus.
Beholder retired.
Comfort? He had a nice run in the Seattle Slew and then we never saw him in another race. His 2nd was strong to Frosted in the Whitney Handicap so he is a possibility.
Not in training right now. Has not worked since his win in the Seattle Slew. Too bad. Looks to be a long shot.
Connect? - He did win the Pennsylvania Derby against a decent field with a decent speed figure - one of the top ones outside of Arrogate's for the 3 year olds so maybe he gets a shot here. Pointing to the Cigar Mile which is another good sign for his making the gate in the Pegasus.
Dortmund? - I wonder what they do with him. Let him go to the lead. We know he can run fast around two turns, though I think at 1 turn at Belmont Park in the Met Mile would be ideal for him. I actually think he could win the Jockey Club Gold Cup there. He and Hopp at the wire. Has not worked since the Breeders Cup so who knows if we see him here. I would think he would target the Native Diver, but the fact that he has not worked is not good news unless he plans to train up to the race like he did for the San Diego which for me was a career best performance by him. Or maybe they send him to the farm to rest up for maybe the Stephen Foster and a late season push.
Effinex? - he was targeting the Donn last year and just was not fit for it. He has his win in the Oaklawn Handicap over Melatonin so he can win against good company at the distance. Has not worked yet since the BC, but without Mike Smith in the irons he may not make it.
Firing Line? - Just a question of fitness. If he goes, I hope they bring him to Florida for the Hal's Hope. His best race has been at 9 furlongs in the Sunland Derby. His works are getting sharper just turning in a 4 furlong work in 48.40. If he can get his form back maybe he does make it.
Frosted? Decision time - does he race for another year?
Gun Runner? - I think he would love a one turn mile/9 furlongs like Frosted did. 9 furlongs and 2 turns might not be his best distance. But he is fast. Two works post BC and likely targeting the Clark Handicap. If he wins here and proves he can win at 9 furlongs that could make the difference.
Highland Reel? He likes the firm going...and Coolmore does have an entry.
Hoppertunity? His numbers this year are pretty good and so was his final time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but is this race too short for him? He did win last year's San Antonio at 9 furlongs. Just had a nice 5 furlong work. Wonder if he is traveling to the Clark Handicap.
Imperative? He shipped to win the Charles Town Classic and just got his career second stakes in in the Big Bear Stakes. If he wins the Native Diver this could be an option for him.
Keen Ice? He ran well in the Breeders Cup Classic finishing 3rd albeit many lengths back. He did not do well in last year's Donn Handicap, but maybe Pletcher is moving forward with him and the Hal's Hope should be an option. With the retirement of Frosted and Upstart, Keen Ice and Dortmund are the only major players left from American Pharoah's Triple Crown run. Has not worked since the Breeders Cup. I wonder if they point him to the December 17th minor stakes at Gulfstream Park to try and get him back in the winner's circle.
Melatonin? He has not won a stakes at 9 furlongs but was a close runner-up to Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap last year. He likes the lead and a fast track so Gulfstream Park may suit him well. Has not worked since BC so who knows what the plans are with him. They could train him up to the race again.
Noble Bird? - did not make the Breeders Cup, but did win the Fayette. Probably targeting the Clark Handicap with two works at Churchill recently. His best races have been at 9 furlongs. And his owners would certainly have no problem getting a spot if they want it.
Runhappy? I still think they point him here. They likely target the Hal's Hope or train him up to the race.
Shaman Ghost? - with his scratch from the BC Classic I wonder if he tries the Clark and the Pegasus. With Stronach owning him you know he is pointed to the race. Hopefully he makes it there.
Tamarkuz? Can he go two turns? He had only won graded stakes at 9 furlongs so maybe he can stretch out.
I do not think that there is any way that Songbird runs in this race.
I don't see how this race goes off. There aren't 12 horses who have similar abilities
at a 1 1/8th on the dirt where you would want to pay 1 million dollars to enter.
Is it the standard 1-5 payouts?
As funny as it sounds, a million dollars is absolutely nothing to those that have entered, I'm quite confident they're not interested in collecting a minor award to help offset day rates.
They should make it winner-take-all and I think it would entice a few more entrants.
Rich people are cheaper than you think. In fact, the richer, the cheaper. :chickendance: :celebrate: :chickendance:
Remember, the $1 million purchase price bought those who entered several things:
1. The right to enter a horse in the race and share in the $12 million purse.
2. A portion of the media rights that will be sold for the event.
3. A portion of the handle that will be collected for the event.
Thus, the 12 purchasers - or really 10 since I think Stronach purchased 2 - could sell their interest in racing a horse for less than $1 million and retain the rights to the handle and the media rights.
The problem with media rights is horse racing isn't very popular.
In Canada, they only aired (2) breeders cup races. Darts and bowling get more coverage
I hope it works and at least Frank tries. It is one
promotion I don't get.
Quote from: Senator L on November 11, 2016, 08:45:39 AM
The problem with media rights is horse racing isn't very popular.
In Canada, they only aired (2) breeders cup races. Darts and bowling get more coverage
Well, my understanding is that NBC was going to show it so those media rights have to have some value. It would probably be on NBC sports...but still more value than TVG.
The key is Arrogate.
If he shows up there should be media interest.
If he does not then the field could be pretty bland except for Chrome.
Juddmonte has suggested a concern with it being a very long year for their horse if he runs in the Pegasus, and noting that his owner might prefer the Dubai World Cup.
BC Classic Rematch Must Be Stronach Priority
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Ante-Post/comments/bc-classic-rematch-is-a-must-for-the-pegasus/
Arrogate Ads New Dimension to Pegasus
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2016/11/15/arrogate-adds-new-dimension-to-pegasus-cup.aspx
Arrogate 2017 Schedule up in the air...
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/grimthorpe-arrogates-2017-racing-schedule-up-in-the-air/
So what did we learn from this weekend's racing?
Divining Rod could be in the mix after his 2nd place finish in the Cigar Mile.
Connect should be in the race after his win in the Cigar Mile.
Gun Runner notched another win at 9 furlongs after missing twice at the distance in his last two efforts with his win in the Clark Handicap.
Shaman's Ghost ran well and could be a good choice for the Pegasus aside from his connection to Stronach.
Breaking Lucky may be a horse for the race, too.
Noble Bird had an awful trip and should not be ruled out.
Effinex will likely not make the Pegasus.
And Midnight Storm could be a contender with his win in the Native Diver.
updates on many of the runners at AQ Saturday, and the Pegasus is at least under consideration for Connect at this point:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218006/connect-in-good-order-off-cigar-mile-win (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218006/connect-in-good-order-off-cigar-mile-win)
interesting....https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/man-out-show-pegasus-doubters-theyre-oh-so-wrong/
Ya beat me to it Stark...:-)
Wow, if they could get Winx to come that would be pretty incredible.
According to TDN Arrogate was supposed to resume works today but I have not seen anything posted.
It is only 8:34 there so he still could work. I do not know when he usually goes out...
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn161201.pdf
Arrogate (3-Year-Old Colt)
Date: December 1, 2016
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 23/43
Quote from: peeptoad on December 01, 2016, 10:15:02 AM
Arrogate (3-Year-Old Colt)
Date: December 1, 2016
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 23/43
Of the 109 horses who worked at @santaanitapark this morning, his was the lone work designated "breezing"
Quote from: stark on December 01, 2016, 10:32:52 AM
Of the 109 horses who worked at @santaanitapark this morning, his was the lone work designated "breezing"
Someone has to take over for Beholder. ;)
Posisble entries:
American Freedom
Arrogate
Anchor Down retired
Beholder retired.
California Chrome
Comfort? Not in training
Connect?
Diviinng Rod?
Dortmund?
Effinex? retired
Firing Line? retired
Frosted? retired
Gun Runner?
Highland Reel?
Hoppertunity?
Imperative?
Keen Ice?
Melatonin?
Noble Bird?
Runhappy? retired
Shaman Ghost
Stanford?
Tamarkuz? retired
Winx?
Still 14 posisbilities but the list is dwindling to get 12 in the gate.
PLUS CHROME!
Quote from: honneerider on December 02, 2016, 07:21:10 PM
PLUS CHROME!
Yep. Chrome is the horse the Pegasus was created to attract to Gulfstream. Arrogate's late development only added gravy to the mix.
Whoops.
Other Pegasus possibles:
Stickstatelydude
Laoban
Mr. Jordan
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/pegasus-world-cup/2016-winds-horsemen-examine-options-inaugural-pegasus-world-cup/
And I forgot Midnight Storm.
My guess is Hopper bypasses this race. His more immediate long range goal is another crack at the World Cup. No mention of this race in the piece I just read (per DRF and Baffert). But who knows?
Well, he will need a prep race, but the San Antonio worked well last year for him.
Arrogate Works Toward Seasonal Bow (which may or may not be the Pegasus)
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218276/arrogate-works-toward-seasonal-bow (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218276/arrogate-works-toward-seasonal-bow)
So what does the result in teh Hong Kong Vase say about Highland Reel's prospects for making the Pegasus Stakes on January 28th?
They were long odds to begin with. It seems they got longer with his second place finish. I think Coolmore will want their Sheem Classic entry well rested for the race.. Multiple ships will not help with that. Then agian, they still do have an entry in the gate and unlikely there will be many takers. But it is just $1 million to "the boys".
Posisble entries:
American Freedom - No recent works.
Arrogate
California Chrome
Connect? No works since winning the Cigar Mile
Divining Rod? - No works since 2nd place finish in the Cigar Mile
Dortmund? - No works since BC Dirt Mile.
Gun Runner? No works since winning the Clark Handicap
Highland Reel? 2nd place finish in the Hong Kong Vase
Hoppertunity? No works since Clark Handicap
Imperative? No works since his finish in the Native Diver
Keen Ice? 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at Palm Beach Downs 1/8
Laoban? 5 furlongs in 1:00.41 9 days ago. 2/22 at Gulfstream Park
Melatonin? No works since BC Classic
Mr. Jordan? 4 furlongs in 49 10/10 at Gulfstream Park
Neolithic? 4 furlongs in 50.40 at Palm Beach Downs 1/3
Noble Bird? No works post Fayette win
Shaman Ghost No works since 3rd place finish in Clark Handicap
Stanford? 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 1/8 4 days ago.
Stickstatelydude?
Winx?
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 13, 2016, 01:06:23 PM
So what does the result in teh Hong Kong Vase say about Highland Reel's prospects for making the Pegasus Stakes on January 28th?
They were long odds to begin with. It seems they got longer with his second place finish. I think Coolmore will want their Sheem Classic entry well rested for the race.. Multiple ships will not help with that. Then agian, they still do have an entry in the gate and unlikely there will be many takers. But it is just $1 million to "the boys".
Posisble entries:
American Freedom
Arrogate
California Chrome
Connect?
Diviinng Rod?
Dortmund?
Gun Runner?
Highland Reel?
Hoppertunity?
Imperative?
Keen Ice?
Laoban?
Melatonin?
Mr. Jordan?
Noble Bird?
Shaman Ghost
Stanford?
Stickstatelydude?
Winx?
Both Stanford and Keen Ice are likely for the Harlan's Holiday on Saturday, as a
possible prep for the Pegasus (per DRF). Madefromlucky is possible, but not certain for the same race.
Neolithic runs well tomorrow he may target the Pegasus since his connections own an entry already, although the partnership for the horse is slightly different than the group who owns the gate.
Thanks peeptoad. Did not know that.
I just knocked out a couple of horses because I have not seen any recent works for them...
American Freedom
Dortmund
Hoppertunity
Noble Bird
Hoppertunity did run recently, but I just do not think he will be pointed there.
So the field is down to a possible 16...and if some of these horses do not go back to the worktab others will be off the list.
And Laoban is also retired, per bloodhorse
James McIngvale, owner of one of the 12 slots for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (gr. I), has privately purchased a three-time group I-winning Argentine-bred runner with the hopes of making the Jan. 28 race.
Eragon (ARG), a soon-to-be 6-year-old son of Offlee Wild—Express Time, by Shy Tom, arrived in the United States early Dec. 19 and will spend the next seven days in quarantine in Miami, Fla.
Trainer Laura Wohlers will leave from her Central Kentucky base to South Florida before Christmas to settle into the barn area at Gulfstream Park.
Interesting... not sure what to make of this, given the connections.
Right. In any other barn one would really think twice, but with Wohlers who knows. I like the name and the Wild Again up top.
So far the only confirmed likely entries are Chrome, Shaman Ghost and Eragon. All the others are only possibles at this time.
Baffert will wait to the last minute to confirm Arrogate, but he is as good as confirmed. Baffert played this same game with American Pharoah. Everyone knew he was going to the Haskell, but we only had it made definite the week before I believe. Similar for the Travers Stakes.
Pletcher will also likely have at least two for the race... I think that Stanford is highly probable and Keen Ice is all but confirmed. The connections of Keen Ice specifically ran him in the Harlan's Holiday as a prep for the Pegasus (per Bloodhorse)
Arrogate 7F in 1;24;4.
http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-80-at-santa-anita-park-on-december-21st-2016
pretty easy, no?
Quote from: stark on December 21, 2016, 02:25:37 PM
Arrogate 7F in 1;24;4.
http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-80-at-santa-anita-park-on-december-21st-2016
pretty easy, no?
Yes
Yes. Arrogate is a pretty mover. All systems say go. Hopefully the San Pasquale goes well.
Juddomonte Signals Arrogate is definitely pointing to the Pegasus.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218574/juddmonte-purchases-coolmores-pegasus-world-cup-slot
And Arrogate is now confirmed to be pointing to the San Pasquale.
Should be interesteding to see what he does against a horse like Midnight Storm if he is indeed in the gate.
Arrogate has been scratched. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218732/arrogate-out-of-san-pasqual-stakes (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218732/arrogate-out-of-san-pasqual-stakes)
Hopefully Midnight Storm is pointed to the Pegasus as of now. Beautiful horse.
So realistically it looks like 11 possibles still:
Arrogate
California Chrome
Eragon
Gun Runner
Keen Ice
Midnight Storm
Neolithic
Semper Fortis
Shaman Ghost
Stanford
War Story
Hope they all line up.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 03, 2017, 06:33:22 AM
Hopefully Midnight Storm is pointed to the Pegasus as of now. Beautiful horse.
Midnight Storm to bypass Pegasus, point for Big Cap or Dubai World Cup, per ownersMidnight Storm, winner of the San Pasqual Stakes on Sunday at Santa Anita, will bypass the Pegasus World Cup on Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park and instead point for either the Santa Anita Handicap on March 11 or the Dubai World Cup on March 25, Gary Fenton, the managing partner of the Little Red Feather partnership that co-owns Midnight Storm, said Monday afternoon.
"While we acknowledge the importance of the Pegasus World Cup and appreciate the offers from the remaining stakeholders, Midnight Storm will not run and, instead, will be pointed towards the Santa Anita Handicap or Dubai World Cup," Fenton said.
Midnight Storm has had an ambitious recent campaign while transferring from a turf star to a major player on dirt. He finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Mile on turf on Nov. 5 before moving to the dirt for his last two starts, victories in Native Diver at Del Mar followed by the San Pasqual. His biggest win came in the Shoemaker Mile on turf last summer. He is trained by Phil D'Amato.
"Midnight Storm has now run three times in the past 60 days," Fenton said. "Although he came out of the San Pasqual in good shape, our goal is to have Midnight Storm ready to fire his best shot in not only his next race, but for the remainder of 2017.
"Naturally the Pegasus stakeholders want a commitment as soon as possible. It would not be fair to the stakeholders, our friends at the Stronach Group, and, most importantly, to Midnight Storm to make that commitment right now. We hope the Pegasus Cup is a huge success for our industry and we wish all the connections of all the horses our very best."
Not good news. Too bad.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1V9bZKUsAAgJvj.jpg)
I thought Sol Kumin and Exaggerator's people sold their spot.
And I thought Navarro was training War Story?
So no Stanford or Gun Runner.
Hmm.
:banghead:
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 05, 2017, 06:59:58 AM
So no Stanford or Gun Runner.
Hmm.
There was a BH article earlier this week that mentioned Gun Runner being stuck in a quarantine situation. Sanford's possible spot was sold to Arrogate.
I actually think that Stanford's spot was not sold to Arrogate, but rather Coolmore made a shrewd move to unload their spot for the highest value knowing if they wanted to buy another spot from someone else by selling theirs to Arrogate they would likely be able to make a deal for the spot for much less than they received for Arrogate's spot. When it comes right down to it Coolmore might be able to get two spots for the price they received for Arrogate if they had the horses.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 06, 2017, 06:56:11 AM
I actually think that Stanford's spot was not sold to Arrogate, but rather Coolmore made a shrewd move to unload their spot for the highest value knowing if they wanted to buy another spot from someone else by selling theirs to Arrogate they would likely be able to make a deal for the spot for much less than they received for Arrogate's spot. When it comes right down to it Coolmore might be able to get two spots for the price they received for Arrogate if they had the horses.
You and others seem to care a lot more than I do about how these spots are being obtained. To me, when the buzz is more about how horses are getting in the race than the race itself, we've got a problem. That's why I don't like the Derby point system. Just let them enter and watch the race. It should be about the horses, not the shenanigans of the richy rich.
You are right about the emphasis being more on how to get in than who being a problem. But I thought Coolmore was smart in what they did.
And you have to have some criteria for the Derby, don't you?
Or are you old school and want the race to be run in two heats with as many entrants as are interested in running?
I like the point system because it forces lesser horses to run more to get into the race and places more emphasis on 3 year old racing.
Was graded stakes earnings a better indicator? I do not necessarily think so.
My only issue with the point system was tossing out the Illinois Derby as a points race, though I would also like a point threshold of 50 points for a horse to enter the Derby gate, rather than the top 20 every year. Then you really do only have entries with merit. Less horses. Less fees. But better horses.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 09, 2017, 08:34:53 AM
... I would also like a point threshold of 50 points for a horse to enter the Derby gate, rather than the top 20 every year. Then you really do only have entries with merit. Less horses. Less fees. But better horses.
That sounds appealing.
Which is exactly why Churchill Downs would never agree to it. But one can dream. :-)
But in 2016, I do not think it would have made much of a difference outcome wise. Granted, Mo Tom finished 6th...but out of the money. His connections would be upset, but if the standards are that you need 50 points so be it.
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted
1 Gun Runner Steve Asmussen 151 $849,200
2 Nyquist Doug O'Neill 130 $3,289,000
3 Exaggerator Keith Desormeaux 126 $1,628,000
4 Outwork Todd Pletcher 120 $660,000
5 Brody's Cause Dale Romans 114 $1,100,000
6 Creator Steve Asmussen 110 $690,000
7 Lani Mikio Matsunaga 100 $1,300,119
8 Mor Spirit Bob Baffert 84 $616,800
9 Mohaymen Kiaran McLaughlin 80 $807,750
10 Danzig Candy Cliff Sise Jr. 60 $290,000
11 Destin Todd Pletcher 51 $338,000
12 Suddenbreakingnews Donnie Von Hemel 50 $637,000
13 Cupid Bob Baffert 50 $542,857
14 *Oscar Nominated Mike Maker 50 $321,360
15 Shagaf Chad Brown 50 $270,000
16 Whitmore Ron Moquett 44 $400,000
17 Tom's Ready Dallas Stewart 44 $270,670
18 My Man Sam Chad Brown 40 $200,000
19 Majesto Gustavo Delgado 40 $190,000
20 Trojan Nation Paddy Gallagher 40 $190,000
21 Mo Tom Tom Amoss 32 $268,326
Rank Horse Points Trainer Stakes Earnings
1 International Star 171 Mike Maker $940,979
2 Dortmund 170 Bob Baffert $1,230,000
3 Carpe Diem 164 Todd Pletcher $1,470,000
4 American Pharoah 160 Bob Baffert $1,410,000
5 Frosted 113 Kiaran McLaughlin $776,200
6 Mubtaahij-IRE 100 Mike de Kock $1,400,000
7 Materiality 100 Todd Pletcher $632,028
8 El Kabeir 95 John Terranova II $720,792
9 Upstart 76 Rick Violette, Jr. $807,680
10 Far Right 62 Ron Moquette $585,906
11 Itsaknockout 60 Todd Pletcher $288,560
12 Firing Line 58 Simon Callaghan $530,000
13 Danzig Moon 45 Mark Casse $217,500
14 War Story 44 Tom Amoss $195,000
15 Tencendur 41 George Weaver $224,500
16 Stanford 40 Todd Pletcher $151,400
17 Mr. Z 34 D. Wayne Lukas $625,826
18 Ocho Ocho Ocho 30 Jim Cassidy $760,250
19 Bolo 30 Carla Gaines $214,980
20 Madefromlucky 30 Todd Pletcher $200,000
21 Keen Ice 22 Dale Romans $136,520
22 Frammento 20 Nick Zito $92,800
Now, 5th place finisher Danzig Moon would have been out, and there could actually be a provision that if less than 15 horses or whatever the field size is before the aux gate - then Churchill Downs has an option of having a committee put together additonal entries to make certain at least 14-15 horses are in the gate.
Rank Horse Points Stakes Earnings
1 California Chrome 150 $782,250
2 Vicar's in Trouble 120 $760,000
3 Dance With Fate 108 $600,000
4 Wicked Strong 102 $640,000
5 Samraat 100 $650,000
6 Danza 100 $620,000
7 Constitution 100 $600,000
8 Hoppertunity 95 $576,000
9 Intense Holiday 93 $527,500
10 Wildcat Red 90 $665,500
11 We Miss Artie 60 $544,000
12 Ride on Curlin 55 $354,387
13 Chitu 54 $440,000
14 Tapiture 52 $470,378
15 Midnight Hawk 52 $320,500
16 Ring Weekend 50 $260,000
17 General a Rod 40 $240,000
18 Medal Count 40 $226,500
19 Candy Boy 30 $380,000
20 Cairo Prince 24 $520,000
21 Uncle Sigh 24 $180,000
22 Vinceremos 20 $191,666
23 Harry's Holiday 20 $152,622
24 Commanding Curve 20 $140,000
Here is where the controversy starts in that Commanding Curve would not have been in the race. But if that is the system that is the system since Mine That Bird and woudl not have been in the race in 2009 with the points system and neither would 2002 Illiinois Derby winner War Emblem.
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-restricted Stakes Earnings
1 Orb Shug McGaughey III 150 $840,000
2 Verrazano Todd Pletcher 150 $810,000
3 Goldencents Doug O'Neill 129 $1,208,000
4 Java's War Ken McPeek 122 $651,772
5 Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 110 $908,831
6 Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 110 $720,000
7 Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,261,089
8 Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 70 $505,000
9 Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 60 $512,971
10 Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 50 $593,600
11 Black Onyx Kelly Breen 50 $317,130
12 Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 50 $200,000
13 Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 44 $258,000
14 Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 44 $240,596
15 Mylute Tom Amoss 42 $363,365
16 Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 36 $346,000
17 Falling Sky John Terranova II 30 $207,500
18 Charming Kitten Todd Pletcher 20 $206,000
19 Golden Soul Dallas Stewart 14 $84,000
20 Giant Finish Tony Dutrow 10 $67,650
Another 2nd place finisher, Golden Soul excluded...
I also think another benefit of requiring more points may be to slightly expand those races that count for points a bit more like the Illinois Derby.
Genuine Risk wouldn't have been in with your system either and don't think that she would have prepped in more open races. Leroy Jolley had to practically be threatened to run her in the Wood.
I wouldn't cap the Derby. I would ressurect the Twin Spires purse, run it at 9f with a sizable purse of 400-600k. That would give enough incentive to most of the no-hopers to go in a more sensible spot. At the same time jack up the entry fee for the Derby to make some think twice.
Genuine Risk is not the only one...
You just have to look forward and not back.
As I note, we would not have had Mine That Bird under the current system or War Emblem.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 11, 2017, 07:54:38 AM
Genuine Risk is not the only one...
You just have to look forward and not back.
As I note, we would not have had Mine That Bird under the current system or War Emblem.
Or Canonero, Ferdinand and maybe Alysheba.... These, as well as Mine That Bird, were all great stories, which the sport needs, especially when a horse has just been DQ'd from the BC no matter what the circumstances. If the horses I've mentioned would not have been eligible due to the point or graded earning system, it's a fair bet to imagine that similar types would be aced out in the future. Believe it or not, I'm trying to look forward, forward to a system in which the host track doesn't dictate where you can prep your horse. CD has spent over 40 years now trying to fix something that wasn't broken or at least broken to the extent that they needed to micromanage it.
My question is how you would handle Debry elgibility or would you allow 40 horses to enter the Derby?
My goal is to make the race as competitive as posisble. For me the most competitve race is the one that allows the best horses the best chance to compete.
In such a large field where the horse in the 1-2 posts do not have the same chances as the rest, I see the race as very flawed.
In such a large field where there are at least 5 horses that stand little to no chance of winning, but often can cause problems for some of the best horses that do have a chance of winning, I see that as flawed.
So realistically it looks like 9 possibles still:
Arrogate
Breaking Lucky
California Chrome
Eragon
Gun Runner
Keen Ice
Midnight Storm
Neolithic
Semper Fortis
Shaman Ghost
Stanford
War Story
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 12, 2017, 07:24:23 AM
My question is how you would handle Debry elgibility or would you allow 40 horses to enter the Derby?
My goal is to make the race as competitive as posisble. For me the most competitve race is the one that allows the best horses the best chance to compete.
In such a large field where the horse in the 1-2 posts do not have the same chances as the rest, I see the race as very flawed.
In such a large field where there are at least 5 horses that stand little to no chance of winning, but often can cause problems for some of the best horses that do have a chance of winning, I see that as flawed.
I already said, run a 9f stake on the undercard with a sizable enough purse to siphon the horses without a shot. You'd probably even get some seeming contenders. As far as the Derby goes, if you've paid your fees, you get to enter. If twenty is the magic number and twenty-five enter, split it into divisions. As long as the Mint Juleps are flowing I think it'll be okay. I'm a liberal Democrat that believes in big government but not blindly, but if you want to further the micromanagement, I don't think you're going far enough. There are far more than five horses each year that from a handicapping standpoint don't belong, it's just that many of the other fifteen are well hidden because they haven't been running against one another. If you really want to limit things, designate six races and take the first two finishers. You'd still have some pretenders but at least some of the whining over post positions, etc. may stop.
Still tweakin?
Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch Jan 10
Hearing purse of Pegasus to be increased by $350K with additional $ to be distributed to 4th & 5th place finishers, which is a great idea.
I think we need a separate thread for the Derby discussion
Quote from: Dusty on January 13, 2017, 07:48:25 PM
I think we need a separate thread for the Derby discussion
There was one, pages ago, if you want to look for it. I brought it up mainly as a contrast. The Pegasus is an admittedly micromanaged race for what are supposed to be the absolute best of the best and, as constituted, it is failing to not only fill but keep horses, e.g. Nyquist, Exaggerator and Frosted, in training. The Derby is to me a terribly micromanaged race which always threatens to oversubscribe.
Quote from: stark on October 29, 2016, 11:42:31 AM
Reddam has a million dollar stall in the Pegasus, curious who that was bought for?
Quote from: curtis on October 29, 2016, 12:08:44 PM
There's always Ralis. I think that's a French word used in the Quebec area that loosely translates to Rick's Natural Star.😉
Bingo!
In other Pegasus news, trainer Doug O'Neill confirmed stakeholder Reddam Racing will run grade 1 winner Ralis in the Pegasus
Quote from: stark on January 15, 2017, 08:58:41 AM
Bingo!
In other Pegasus news, trainer Doug O'Neill confirmed stakeholder Reddam Racing will run grade 1 winner Ralis in the Pegasus
If only there were future book betting for which no-hopers were going to be entered. Guess I'll have to make 💰 in this race the old fashioned way.😉
Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch 27m27 minutes ago
At the moment, 11 of the 12 Pegasus spots have been filled with Noble Bird perhaps the final piece of the puzzle if a deal can be reached
Wow, I had him on my list early on, but when I dud not see any works post-Fayette I thought. His entry unlikely.
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 27m27 minutes ago
Chrome 58.4 with a final 1:4 in 23.3 out in 1:12 flat to quote @amy_christinek "effortless, floating ears cocked" could have gone faster
To the best of my knowledge, that's Chrome's fastest work ever. They are taking off the restraints on him, finally.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on January 21, 2017, 05:18:09 AM
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 27m27 minutes ago
Chrome 58.4 with a final 1:4 in 23.3 out in 1:12 flat to quote @amy_christinek "effortless, floating ears cocked" could have gone faster
To the best of my knowledge, that's Chrome's fastest work ever. They are taking off the restraints on him, finally.
58 4/5s... 58.80. Nice work 1:12.41 official time.
Arrogate's too. :24.82, :48.87, and 1:01.02 to finish with 1:12.13 slightly faster than last weeks 1:12.20 for the same distance, and 8 furlongs in 1:38.36...
Arrogate in the #1 post
California Chrome #12
Ouch
I'm really concerned about the outside post that CC has but i think he is the better horse
so here goes
California Chrome on top with
Arrogate,Noble Bird,Keen Ice second and third
and Shaman Ghost,Breaking Lucky third and fourth
Good luck to all !!
Heart breaker - hope Chrome is okay = that was just too bad to be real - BUT I STILL LOVE Chrome and his team
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It was like the passing of the torch from Chrome to Arrogate. Tough way for Chrome to go out. Saw his slight reluctance to go into the gate and was thinking I had never seen him like that before. As far as Arrogate. How good is he and what lies ahead for him.
:thanks: Chrome
Quote from: Dusty on January 28, 2017, 10:25:49 PM
Heart breaker - hope Chrome is okay = that was just too bad to be real - BUT I STILL LOVE Chrome and his team
Also hope he will be OK. I think this was the first time I watched him go through the whole thing, tacking, saddling, and I was a bit taken aback when just before the "riders up" his connections were all clustered around him, stroking him, petting him, soothing him it seemed like.
Definitely not the Chrome we had seen in the past.
Seemed dull in the paddock and the post-parade.
Balked at the gate.
Stopped running in the race.
Injury or not something was off.
But congrats to Team Arrogate. He just keeps on trucking.
Arrogate is the real deal.
He is certainly the real deal.
A shame it seems unlikely he will contest the race again.