As I noted on the other thread, if Orb wins the Cigar Mile he gets the nod IMHO.
Anything less than a win and it goes to Will Take Charge.
Other than the Breeders Cup Classic, for three year olds the top performance is measured by how you do in the Triple Crown races.
Orb won the Kentucky Derby which is the equivalent of the Breeders Cup Classic for three year olds beating Will Take Charge who finished 8th.
In the Preakness Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 4th ahead of WTC who finished 7th.
In the Belmont Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 3rd. WTC finished 10th.
In the top three year old races - the TC races WTC was a no show while Orb showed up and ran respectable races.
Now, do not get me wrong - I like Will Take Charge a lot.
In the second half of the year he has been impressive.
He bested Orb in the Travers Stakes - his only race where he finished ahead of him all year. And Orb still finished a respectable 3rd.
Then Orb opts for a race against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup...while Will Take Charge opts for a lesser challenge against a field include a single stakes winning three year old in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Orb finishes his worst of all (8th) his races all year talking on older males and his connections decide that they will give him a pass on the BC Classic.
Will Take Charge finishes second in a hard fought stretch battle in the BC Classic.
Examining the entire year's efforts...
Will Take Charge is 10-4-2-0 overall but in graded stakes races he is 9-3-2-0. And in G1 races he is 5-1-1-0 with a solitary win.
Orb on the other hand is 8-4-0-2 overall but in graded stakes races he is 7-3-0-2. And in G1 races he is 6-2-0-2 with two wins.
My point is that I give Will Take Charge the edge right now as many of you suggest, but the notion that a win in the second half of the year in the Cigar Mile by Orb should be meaningless I since believe it ignores a substantial edge for Orb who would then have 3 G1 wins - 66% more than WTC - a final overall record of 9-5-0-2 and a graded stakes record of 8-4-0-2 which would show the following:
Orb wins 50% of his graded takes races.
Will Take Charge wins 33%% of his graded stakes races.
Orb wins %42% of his G1 races he runs in.
Will Take Charge wins 20% of his G1 races he runs in.
Orb finishes in the money in 75% of his stakes races.
Will Take Charge finishes in the money in 55% of his stakes races.
Anything less than a win and it goes to Will Take Charge.
Other than the Breeders Cup Classic, for three year olds the top performance is measured by how you do in the Triple Crown races.
Orb won the Kentucky Derby which is the equivalent of the Breeders Cup Classic for three year olds beating Will Take Charge who finished 8th.
In the Preakness Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 4th ahead of WTC who finished 7th.
In the Belmont Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 3rd. WTC finished 10th.
In the top three year old races - the TC races WTC was a no show while Orb showed up and ran respectable races.
Now, do not get me wrong - I like Will Take Charge a lot.
In the second half of the year he has been impressive.
He bested Orb in the Travers Stakes - his only race where he finished ahead of him all year. And Orb still finished a respectable 3rd.
Then Orb opts for a race against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup...while Will Take Charge opts for a lesser challenge against a field include a single stakes winning three year old in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Orb finishes his worst of all (8th) his races all year talking on older males and his connections decide that they will give him a pass on the BC Classic.
Will Take Charge finishes second in a hard fought stretch battle in the BC Classic.
Examining the entire year's efforts...
Will Take Charge is 10-4-2-0 overall but in graded stakes races he is 9-3-2-0. And in G1 races he is 5-1-1-0 with a solitary win.
Orb on the other hand is 8-4-0-2 overall but in graded stakes races he is 7-3-0-2. And in G1 races he is 6-2-0-2 with two wins.
My point is that I give Will Take Charge the edge right now as many of you suggest, but the notion that a win in the second half of the year in the Cigar Mile by Orb should be meaningless I since believe it ignores a substantial edge for Orb who would then have 3 G1 wins - 66% more than WTC - a final overall record of 9-5-0-2 and a graded stakes record of 8-4-0-2 which would show the following:
Orb wins 50% of his graded takes races.
Will Take Charge wins 33%% of his graded stakes races.
Orb wins %42% of his G1 races he runs in.
Will Take Charge wins 20% of his G1 races he runs in.
Orb finishes in the money in 75% of his stakes races.
Will Take Charge finishes in the money in 55% of his stakes races.