2015 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

This is a very special year for the BC Classic because not only do we have a Triple Crown winner potentially running in the race, but we also have a mare in Pacific Classic winner Beholder targeting it.

Possible entries include:

American Pharoah
Beholder
Effinex
Frosted
Gleneagles
Honor Code
Keen Ice
Liam's Map
Tonalist
Wicked Strong

I do find it interesting at this point that only 4 3 year olds are currently considering the race and one of them, Gleneagles, is from across the pond.

Last year, 7 of the 13 entries were 3 year olds.  In 2013, there were only 4 3 year olds and they took 2nd and 3rd. In 2012, I think there were only 3.

10 horses with likely defections means it could be a pretty small field for the BC Classic. 11 to 14 horses ran in the race the last 5 years...so that would be a small field.

[afleetphil]

Nice lineup for the Classic. No Texas Red or Upstart.

[Man o Taz]

Well, I did not think that they would be heading there unless something happens. I think what they head to depends upon how they do in their next start. If Texas Red enters the Awesome Again and finishes in the top 3 with a strong finish I think he enters. If not, probably Dirt Mile. If Upstart wins or finishes well in the Penn Derby he could go too, but I am thinking they will probably point him to the dirt mile and Cigar Mile.

He had 3 tough races earlier this year - took 3 months off and then has had 2 tough races coming back. I think he could have 3 more races.

So much for that thinking...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94485/texas-red-sidelined-with-bone-bruise

[Raven]

Texas Red is out.  Due to injury.

[afleetphil]

Frosted looked good in winning the Penn Derby yesterday. I think Frosted is really improving from his Travers to the Penn Derby. Could be a factor in The Classic.

[Man o Taz]

I agree.

Some are dismissing him as no better than the 5th choice in the BC Classic behind American Pharoah, Honor Code, Beholder, and Liam's Map.

Tonalist is in the same boat. The irony is one is proven at 10 furlongs, and one is not. I think both can still get the distance.

The idea that you have such quality getting 5th and 6th choice in the race shows just how strong a field it is.

I would watch out for Effinex too. His Suburban was strong and he may be coming into the race with a JCGC win.

[peeptoad]

I love Frosted, but he really should be about the 5th choice in the Classic if all the potential contenders make the race. He needs to improve to beat AP, let alone Beholder and Co. I agree on him looking good and I expect a nice 4yo campaign from him regardless of  the BC. Anyway if he's decent odds that more bang for your two bucks. 

Anyone hear anything on Smooth Roller? I assume he goes to the Classic, but that's a tall order for your 5th career start, esp. with the TC winner, the best mare since Zenyatta, one of the best dead closers we've seen for awhile, and the freak speed of Liam in there. Going to be a heckuva race on Halloween.

[Man o Taz]

It is a big ask. His 2nd stakes race the BC Classic.

But is that any different from a horse making his 5th start in the Kentucky Derby like Verrazano did? Granted Verrazano did not do too well, but some of the 3 year olds have.

I see it as very similar to that. It depends on his connections. If he is a precocious horse then let him try it. If not, hopefully there will be next year for him.

Granted, this field appears to be one of the strongest BC Classic fields ever, especially if Gleneagles contests the race, but I think he can handle it if his connections feel he is up to it just so its the trainer making most of the decision. I really like his breeding a lot. Hard Spun by Danzig on the top and Catch The Moment by Unbridled on the bottom.

Seems like they are going...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Smooth_Roller_Unraced_Maiden_to_the_2015_Breeders_Cup_Classic_123

[Man o Taz]

New possible field...

American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird

Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic

Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector 

Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer 

Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat

Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat

Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister

Liam's Map - Unbridled's Song and Miss Macy Sue by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner by Mr. Prospector

Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector

Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot

Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer 

We can see a definite trend here:

A.P. Indy to Bold Ruler to Nasrullah
Storm Cat to Northern Dancer
Mr. Prospector to Native Dancer
The two outliers are Ribot and Nearctic

[peeptoad]

It is a big ask. His 2nd stakes race the BC Classic.

But is that any different from a horse making his 5th start in the Kentucky Derby like Verrazano did? Granted Verrazano did not do too well, but some of the 3 year olds have.

There is a world of difference between the Derby and the Classic, imo. Smooth Roller's best option for the BC would be to target the Dirt Mile. He has plenty of time ahead to season and prepare himself for next year's Classic. He would make for an interesting addition to that field, but absolutely nothing of BC note finished behind him on Saturday (and that's coming from a Hoppertunity fan) and I think a win is way beyond his current ability.

eta: also, Smooth Roller is a 4yo , not 3yo.

[Man o Taz]

Sorry if I misspoke and said he was 3.

I meant as an older horse who just started this year, he has run well.

He hit a 111 BSF in his first stakes race. That is up there with the best of the best this year.

I cannot fault the connections for thinking big with him because as we have seen all too often, many times horses do not come back the following season with the same ability.

And I agree there is a difference in ability between the Derby and the BC Classic, but the Classic at least limits field size whereas the Derby does not.

We shall see how he ships and trains at Keeneland. I know the field was not the greatest, but the speed figure shows he is a contender.

[curtis]

The main difference between the Derby and the BCC regarding Smooth Roller's experience is in the Derby most horses come in with similar resumes. Smooth Roller would be giving up a lot of seasoning.  The Awesome Again, which was actually his second stake start--albeit first graded, looked better then it was.  He sat just off of a slow pace set by Bayern a horse who has no fight left and just caved as soon as he was challenged. With no pace on, no one really closed and a classic grinder--who evidently is fond of quirky tracks --Hopportunity, clip-clopped into second.  The first stake start should also be considered. Smooth Roller stumbled at the start and finished fourth behind pretty ordinary horses. He might be a BC Classic horse next year but I think the Dirt Mile makes a lot more sense or him this year.  For Smooth Roller, in my opinion, to have a shot to win the Classic, he'd need to be a horse for the ages.

[peeptoad]

  For Smooth Roller, in my opinion, to have a shot to win the Classic, he'd need to be a horse for the ages.

I agree. If he does manage to win the classic we are in for an exciting year next year. Heck, even if he competitively hits the board he is adding some serious depth to the SoCal  ranks for the Strub series (assuming that's still actually a series)

[curtis]

I agree. If he does manage to win the classic we are in for an exciting year next year. Heck, even if he competitively hits the board he is adding some serious depth to the SoCal  ranks for the Strub series (assuming that's still actually a series)

The Strub series doesn't exist any longer. Once upon a time, it consisted of the Malibu, San Fernando and Strub Stakes, progressing from 7-9-10f. The latter two races were shortened to 8.5 and 9f respectively. In it's last running, I believe the Strub--originally the biggest of the three races and the only Gr1, when grading began--was run at 8.5f. The Strub was jettisoned so that the purse money could be combined with that of the San Antonio to make it a more attractive race.  The Strub Series was for four, or about to turn four-year-olds, anyway. If the connections are wise and go the Dirt Mile route with Smooth Roller, he should be a factor in the San Antonio-Big Cap if that's where they decide to go. I also think that the race Saturday fell into his lap and I wouldn't completely trust that number.

[peeptoad]

Yes, that's right . I had forgotten the Malibu was part of that series... SR wouldn't qualify anyway.
Agree on not trusting the AA fig completely.