2014 G1 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

So...the contenders list is quite long right now...and quite interesting...

What a field...of course all of these cannot make the gate...and I can highlight those I think will make the gate with an uhnderline :"thus"...

Atreides
6th Indiana Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Monarchos Stakes, 8 furlongs, 105 BSF
Allowance race, 6.5 furlongs, 105 BSF

Australia(G1 English Champion Stakes/G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, October 18th)
2nd G1 Irish Champion Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Juddmonte International, 10.5 furlongs
G1 Irish Derby, 12 furlongs
G1 Epsom Derby, 12 furlongs
3rd G1 English 2000 Guineas, 8 furlongs

Bayern*
G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs, 107 BSF
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs

California Chrome*
6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 105
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs, BSF 97
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, BSF 108
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs

Candy Boy
3rd G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd West Virginia Derby, 9 furlongs
13th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Close Hatches If Mr. Mott truly believes she is the next Royal Delta in his barn this move might make sense. However, the only reason to enter her in the Classic may be that he thinks Beholder owns the Santa Anita track.
4th G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs.
G1 Personal Ensign, 9 furlongs defeating Princess of Sylmar
G1 Ogden Phipps, 8.5 furlongs, defeating Princess of Sylmar and Beholder
G1 Apple Blossom, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Azeri, 8.5 furlongs

Cigar Street
Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 9 furlongs
G3 Skip Away, 9.5 furlongs
Allowance, 9 furlongs

Clubhouse Ride
7th Los Alamitos Mile
10th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
4th G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs
3rd Santana Mile
3rd San Carlos, 7 furlong
5th Joe Hernandez, 6.5 furlongs

I wonder if Clubhouse Ride will go. The reason I say he will is because which he has had a lackluster year...his win came at Santa Anita and he was second in the Santa Anita rendition of the Gold Cup.

Departing
2nd Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
8th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Stephen Foster, 9 furlongs
Allowance Race, 8 furlongs

His connections may want to save him for the Clark Handicap.

Fed Biz

Looks to be pointed to the G1 Dirt MIle.

2nd G1 Awesome Again Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Pat O'Brien Stakes, 6.5 furlongs
G2 San Diego Handicap, 8 furlongs

Imperative
5th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
3rd, Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 107
8th San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
7th G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 San Antonio Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 8 furlongs

Itsmyluckyday
3rd G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, 108
2nd G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs, 107
G3 Salvator Mile
Majestic Light Stakes, 1 mile, 70 yards
Best of the Rest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th G2 Gulfstream Handicap, 1 mile

Last Gunfighter
6th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
6th G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
5th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
9th G2 Suburban Handicap, 10 furlongs
Mountainview Handicap, 9 furlongs

Lea
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording one of the highest BSFs (114) for 2014

Majestic Harbor
4th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
6th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
3rd G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
G3 Tokyo City, 12 furlongs
4th G2 San Antonio, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 San Pasquale, 8.5 furlongs

Moreno*
11th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, BSF 108
G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs, BSF 109

Ride On Curlin
11th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
2nd G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 103
7th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
3rd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Allowance Race, 6 furlongs

Shared Belief*
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs, 101 BSF
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, 115 BSF
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs, 104 BSF

Stryker PhD
G3 Longacres Mile
Mount Rainier Handicap, 8.5 furlongs
Budweiser Handicap, 8 furlongs

Toast of New York
2nd G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
6th G1 Belmont Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs

Tonalist*
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 106
3rd, G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs, BSF 100
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs, BSF 104

VE Day*
5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs

War Command
7th, G1 Coral Eclipse, 10 furlongs
4th G1 St. James Palace Stakes, 8 furlongs
9th G1 English 2000 Guineas, 8 furlongs

Wicked Strong*
2nd G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
DNF G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furloongs
G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
4th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, BSF 104

Zivo
2nd G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
Commentator, 8 furlongs
Kings Point, 8.5 furlongs
Whodam, 8 furlongs

Note:: "*" signifies Man o' Taz HOTY Contender

[peeptoad]

No idea what's going with Lea... time is running out. His last work was 3 weeks ago and he hasn't run since February.
You can probably scratch Ride On Curlin off the list since he just returned to the barn barely a week ago and has not even registered an official work. He had a setback during his break after the Belmont.
I'm only extrapolating information from stuff I've read though...

[Man o Taz]

Well, you are usually pretty good with your extrapolations. 

Do you see anyone possibly making the BC Classic besides the horses listed...

I guess you might always find a long shot winning or finishing in the money in one of the final preps who could go...but other than that I think this is the field.

[curtis]

Do you see anyone possibly making the BC Classic besides the horses listed...

I guess you might always find a long shot winning or finishing in the money in one of the final preps who could go...but other than that I think this is the field.

Stryker PhD.  He's a notch below the best older horses but the best older horses are gone.  He probably fits better going a mile but the Dirt Mile is looking to be a deeper race.  You can thank me when you collect.

[peeptoad]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87554/chrome-eyes-bc-classic-bayern-has-options

Chrome is a go (as expected), Bayern is up in the air. Baffert is considering the Classic, Dirt Mile, and Sprint.
No plans for Candy Boy yet; sounds like they are on hold with a decision.
Majestic Harbor goes in the AA on Saturday and the Classic sounds likely.

[Man o Taz]

History Stacked Against California Chrome winning the BC Classic...
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2014/09/24/history-stacked-against-california-chrome.aspx

Shared Belief is looking sharp for the G1 Awesome Again. He could become the first undefeated BC Classic winner, right?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87551/shared-belief-works-toward-awesome-again

[Man o Taz]

Article on California Chrome and Shared Belief
http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/sports/20140924/california-chrome-could-face-unbeaten-shared-belief-in-breeders-cup-classic

http://www.whittierdailynews.com/sports/20140925/breeders-cup-classic-shared-belief-california-chrome-heading-for-a-showdown

[Man o Taz]

Right now I have 13 possibles for the BC Classic...

Can 13 horses go in the gate at Santa Anita?

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2014/10/05/top-5-contenders-of-2014-breeders-cup-classic/

1. Shared Belief
2. Bayern
3. California Chrome
4. Tonalist
5. Zivo

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-Standings-5804112.php
The $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic will run Nov. 1 at Santa Anita (trainer in parentheses):

BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Itsmyluckyday (Edward Plesa, Jr.)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
21 — Wildcat Red (Jose Garoffalo)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
15 — Ride On Curlin (William G. Gowan)

x-Breeders' Cup Challenge winner earned an automatic starting position.

[curtis]

Actually, 14 can go.  the BC wouldn't run at a track that couldn't accommodate their maximum.

[Man o Taz]

Thanks,

[Man o Taz]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2014/10/13/breeders-cup-classic-standings/17229197/

BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
14 — Medal Count (Dale Romans)
12 — Zivo (Chad Brown)
10 — Footbridge (Eoin G. Harty)

x-Breeders' Cup Challenge winner earned an automatic starting position.


http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/horse-racing-blog/2014/10/14/breeders-cup-classic-clones-vs-chromes/17253439/

[Man o Taz]

BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
14 — Medal Count (Dale Romans)
12 — Zivo (Chad Brown)
10 — Footbridge (Eoin G. Harty)

I crossed out Fed Biz because I think he is targeting the G1 BC Dirt Mile.

Two AP Indy grandsons have said they will be entered in the BC Classic bringing the entries to 16.

Noble Moon
4th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Kings Bishop, 7 furlongs
6th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Jerome, 8 furlongs

Prayer for Relief
3rd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Suburban Handicap, 10 furlongs
8th G1 Stephen Foster Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Pimlico Special, 9.5 furlongs
4th G2 Oaklawn Park Handicap, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Mineshaft, 8.5 furloongs
3rd Louisiana Handicap, 8.5 furlongs

[Man o Taz]

News...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88018/bc-classic-how-weak-are-the-older-horses?&utm_source=TripleCrownNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20141021

With the defections/retirements of:

Palace Malice
Lea
Will Take Charge
Moonshine Mullin
Itsmyluckyday
Game On Dude
Mucho Macho Man

And we could add Revolutionary who was certainly bred for distance with AP Indy on the dam's side.

But what about the three year old retirements/defections/passings:

Cairo Prince
Chitu
Commissioner
Constitution G1 Florida Derby
Dance With Fate G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Danza G1 Arkansas Derby
General a Rod
Harry's Holiday
Havana
Honor Code
Hoppertunity
Indianapolis
Intense Holiday
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Top Billing
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos
Wicked Strong G1 Wood Memorial

That's six out of the top 10 Derby point holders...
Twelve out of the top 20...

There are 5 top G1 prep races for the Kentucky Derby - 4 of the 5 winners are sidelined before the end of the year.

[Man o Taz]

I always suggested that Bayern might be in nice shape for the BC Classic...because of the way the track appeared to be like Monmouth Park's - but California Chrome has also won over the track and Shared Belief as well...so it will be interesting.

FROM MIKE WATCHMAKER AT DRF REGARDING A SANTA ANITA SPEED BIAS
http://www.drf.com/blogs/watchmaker-time-start-thinking-about-breeders-cup-track-bias

From Oct. 12 through Oct. 18, there were 22 main track sprints run. An incredible 20 of them, or 91 percent, were won by "speed." Now, it should be noted that only three of those 20 speed winners were horses that led at every call, so the races weren't exactly run in conveyor belt-like fashion. Still, over the years, I've found the average success rate for what I call speed to be in the neighborhood of 35 to 40 percent. So these results were stunning.

Over the same period at Santa Anita, there were eight main track routes run. Six of those eight routes, or 75 percent, were won by speed. I know this is a small sample, but it is interesting that four of those six speed winners were front-running winners.

For the record, I did a similar look at the Santa Anita main track last year, only it was one week before the Breeders' Cup. I found that in sprints, speed won 76 percent of the time the last full week of racing and 80 percent of the time for the most recent incomplete week at the time I posted that blog entry. In routes, I found speed won 40 percent and then 83 percent of the time for those same corresponding periods.

In other words, there was evidence beforehand that we might run into the speed bias we encountered on Breeders' Cup Friday last year. Given what we now know about Santa Anita's last five cards, it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on how the track there plays this week.

At the same time, you also have to hope that lessons were learned last year and that everyone understands the importance of having even surfaces for the Breeders' Cup. Although true track biases can be the horseplayer's best friend, we all want our championship-making races decided on fair tracks, on which no one is compromised only because they have a certain running style.

[Man o Taz]

Well, the BC pre-entries are out:

Bayern
California Chrome
Candy Boy
Cigar Street
Footbridge
Imperative
Majestic Harbor
Moreno
Prayer For Relief
Shared Belief
Toast Of New York
Tonalist
V.E. Day
Zivo

With Big Cazanova being on the outside looking in.

No Clubhouse Ride, no Last Gunfighter and no Styrker PhD.

Everyone else though.

A full field means that California Chrome probably needs the outside more than ever.

I do not believe that Mr. Pletcher has any entries in the race. The reason I mention this is that California Chrome's last two losses were at the hands of Pletcher horses with Matterhorn grabbing a quarter of his hind hoof at the break in the Belmont Stakes, and Protonico and Javier Castellano locking him down on the rail in the Pennsylvania Derby.

We know Bayern will look for a lead in the race, and Shared Belief, Tonlaist and California Chrome will come off the pace. The question is how fast the race will be. If its 23, 47, 112 or less that will help Chrome and friends close, if its more than that Shared Belief may be the only one that can catch Bayern on the front end.

I think Footbridge could be a long shot spoiler in the race.