2014 G1 Belmont Stakes Test of a Champion

Started by Man o Taz, May 19, 2014, 06:23:57 AM

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Man o Taz


I guess...here is the field's record against CC...

California Chrome
Candy Boy 0-2
Commanding Curve 0-1
Commissioner 0-0
Intense Holiday 0-1
Kid Cruz 0-1
Matuszak 0-0
Ride On Curlin 0-2
Ring Weekend 0-1
Samraat 0-1
Social Inclusion 0-1
Tonalist 0-0
Wicked Strong 0-1

"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

peeptoad

Quote from: Man o Taz on May 23, 2014, 10:34:47 AM
I guess...here is the field's record against CC...

California Chrome
Candy Boy 0-2
Commanding Curve 0-1
Commissioner 0-0
Intense Holiday 0-1
Kid Cruz 0-1
Matuszak 0-0
Ride On Curlin 0-2
Ring Weekend 0-1
Samraat 0-1
Social Inclusion 0-1
Tonalist 0-0
Wicked Strong 0-1

It's difficult to envision one of these guys beating Chrome, but as we know anything can happen in horse racing. Commanding Curve and Commissioner should at least appreciate the distance. Tonalist and Wicked Strong might be the biggest threats. I like Samraat mainly because of his forwardly placed grinding style of running. That style generally does well in this race. Not sure he's quiet good enough though. Be interesting to see how the field shapes up as we get closer to June 7.

Oh, and I think Ring Weekend was officially declared.


Dusty

Check out the Santa Anita Celebration -  http://www.santaanita.com/events I soooo want the t-Shirt but will not be able to go...drat
May they run with the wind

Man o Taz

#18
Me too!!!

Matterhorn - This Tapit son is the latest to be added to the list of potential starters.

California Chrome
Candy Boy
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Intense Holiday - too bad. Really was looking forward to see him.
Kid Cruz
Matterhorn - the newest potential entry this son of Tapit was 4th in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes.
Matuszak
Medal Count
Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Samraat
Social Inclusion
Tonalist
Wicked Strong

12 possible entries.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

serenassong

Candy Boy and Ring Weekend are out of this race.   Candy Boy going to the Los Al Derby per Sadler, Ring Weekend out per trainer, no indication where he goes next.

Social Inclusion is cross-entered in 2 other races on the undercard from what I have been reading- thinking he may end up in one of those.
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
Mythbusters

peeptoad

Quote from: serenassong on May 27, 2014, 12:02:18 PM
Candy Boy and Ring Weekend are out of this race.   Candy Boy going to the Los Al Derby per Sadler, Ring Weekend out per trainer, no indication where he goes next.

Social Inclusion is cross-entered in 2 other races on the undercard from what I have been reading- thinking he may end up in one of those.

I cannot understand what the connections of Social Inclusion are thinking... it's very possible that they are not thinking at all.
They have their horse listed as possible for 3 different races on the same day:

1. a 7 furlong sprint against 3yos (where he probably would fare best)
2. a 12 furloing grind against the best 3yos out there (can't say he would do that well in this spot based on his Preakness run, but he could close out the tri or super I suppose)
3. an 8 furlong test against some of the very best older, male horses in the nation (he is a lock to get his ass handed to him if he runs here)

...yet they will use the same training regime for all 3 races and decide at the last minute.  :banghead:

Where is the eyeroller, wait, here he is:  ::)


serenassong

Quote from: peeptoad on May 27, 2014, 12:09:37 PM
I cannot understand what the connections of Social Inclusion are thinking... it's very possible that they are not thinking at all.
They have their horse listed as possible for 3 different races on the same day:

1. a 7 furlong sprint against 3yos (where he probably would fare best)
2. a 12 furloing grind against the best 3yos out there (can't say he would do that well in this spot based on his Preakness run, but he could close out the tri or super I suppose)
3. an 8 furlong test against some of the very best older, male horses in the nation (he is a lock to get his ass handed to him if he runs here)

...yet they will use the same training regime for all 3 races and decide at the last minute.  :banghead:

Where is the eyeroller, wait, here he is:  ::)

This^. Would make the most sense, but as we all know, it can be lacking in this sport.  He is a fast horse, if he can keep it together and not wash out and throw fits the closer he gets into the gate. He came apart behind the gate for the Preakness.
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
Mythbusters

serenassong

Ah, thought there was someone else coming in-

"horseracinghl ‏@horseracinghl 5m
Ned Toffey of @spendthriftfarm confirms that Medal Count will join the list of contenders for the Belmont Stakes."
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
Mythbusters

Man o Taz

#23
Agreed.

I heard he was going to be cross-entered in the Woody Stephens. I hadn't heard of a third race.

He has shown that he can carry his speed as a lightly raced horse 8.5 furlongs, albeit on a fast Gulfstream Park track.

I know its not as a big a racing day at Monmouth Park, but looking at the summer racing schedule I think his best chance to win a Grade 1 race is the Haskell Stakes. Perhaps his connections are thinking of the Kings Bishop for him which is why the Woody Stephens is in the mix. 

I think he could run in the Pegasus Stakes and the Haskell and if he does not win both of those, point to the Kings Bishop and perhaps the Kelso/Dirt Mile.

If he excels at the 9 furlong Haskell, then you can even consider him for the Travers Stakes, though I do not think this is an optimal race for him. Granted he is a Pioneer of the Nile just like Cairo Prince, but I think he's more of a 9 furlong horse. And Cairo Prince may be as well.

Just a thought allowing the connections to still keep open the possibility of his still being among the best of this three year old class, while keeping all opportunities open.

However, running in the Woody Stephens off a three week rest may not be an optimal position for him.

The reason I like Monmouth Park is that it tends to favor horses who race on the lead. He would get a four week layoff between races. Now he has more of a bottom under him than he did in the Wood. I think, like Gulfstream Park, Social Inclusion might appreciate the Monmouth Park race course.

Quote from: peeptoad on May 27, 2014, 12:09:37 PM
I cannot understand what the connections of Social Inclusion are thinking... it's very possible that they are not thinking at all.
They have their horse listed as possible for 3 different races on the same day:

1. a 7 furlong sprint against 3yos (where he probably would fare best)
2. a 12 furloing grind against the best 3yos out there (can't say he would do that well in this spot based on his Preakness run, but he could close out the tri or super I suppose)
3. an 8 furlong test against some of the very best older, male horses in the nation (he is a lock to get his ass handed to him if he runs here)

...yet they will use the same training regime for all 3 races and decide at the last minute.  :banghead:

Where is the eyeroller, wait, here he is:  ::)

All I can say is "wow".
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

serenassong

"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
Mythbusters

peeptoad

Quote from: Man o Taz on May 27, 2014, 12:22:23 PM
Agreed.

I heard he was going to be cross-entered in the Woody Stephens. I hadn't heard of a third race.

He has shown that he can carry his speed as a lightly raced horse 8.5 furlongs, albeit on a fast Gulfstream Park track.

I know its not as a big a racing day at Monmouth Park, but looking at the summer racing schedule I think his best chance to win a Grade 1 race is the Haskell Stakes. Perhaps his connections are thinking of the Kings Bishop for him which is why the Woody Stephens is in the mix. 

I think he could run in the Pegasus Stakes and the Haskell and if he does not win both of those, point to the Kings Bishop and perhaps the Kelso/Dirt Mile.

If he excels at the 9 furlong Haskell, then you can even consider him for the Travers Stakes, though I do not think this is an optimal race for him. Granted he is a Pioneer of the Nile just like Cairo Prince, but I think he's more of a 9 furlong horse. And Cairo Prince may be as well.

Just a thought allowing the connections to still keep open the possibility of his still being among the best of this three year old class, while keeping all opportunities open.

However, running in the Woody Stephens off a three week rest may not be an optimal position for him.

The reason I like Monmouth Park is that it tends to favor horses who race on the lead. He would get a four week layoff between races. Now he has more of a bottom under him than he did in the Wood. I think, like Gulfstream Park, Social Inclusion might appreciate the Monmouth Park race course.

All I can say is "wow".

Wow in response to what I posted, or to what the connections are doing with him?

FWIW, I agree on the Pegasus/Haskell... and SI is still very lightly raced, but I think the connections made a mistake turning down that 8 mill. JMHO.

Man o Taz

To the connections.

I hope they are just excited with their charge.

This is the horse of a lifetime for them and perhaps in their exuberance and excitement they are keeping all opportunities open.

I just hope they come back down to Earth before his next race.

And in the news...

Penny Chenery changes schedule to attend Belmont Stakes...
http://msn.foxsports.com/horse-racing/story/secretariat-s-penny-chenery-is-firmly-in-california-chrome-s-triple-crown-corner-052714

Affirmed's owner Patrice Wolfson believes California Chrome is going to do it...
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/10984591/numbers-california-chrome-favor

Ron Turcotte cheering for California Chrome and thinks he will do it...and Billy Turner sees no trouble for California Chrome...
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/article/Triple-Crown-vets-give-California-Chrome-ringing-5508287.php

Steve Cauthen on California Chrome...
http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Former-Triple-Crown-players-like-California-5508311.php
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

#27
Amanda Duckworth has an interesting column on ESPN regarding the Belmont Stakes.

The Belmont's place
The final jewel in the Triple Crown will be of particular interest this year
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/10990580/the-belmont-place
Updated: May 28, 2014, 12:14 PM ET
By Amanda Duckworth | Special to ESPN.com

She appears to be suggesting that the Belmont Stakes is perhaps the least respected Triple Crown race unless there is a Triple Crown on the line.

I must respectfully disagree.

It is a given that breeders in the US are not looking for 12 furlongs horses. However, it is the case that breeders ARE looking for 10 furlong horses. Breeding a 12 furlong horse is still attractive to breeders seeking to foal a 10 furlong champion.

Examine who the leading sire used to be until recently - A.P. Indy. He is a Belmont Stakes winner. Granted he also won the Breeders Cup Classic, but I am certain Lanes End Farm was proud to advertise their stallion as a Belmont Stakes/Breeders Cup Classic Champion.

Lanes End also has Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, and other race.

Union Rags also stands at Lanes End. The Belmont Stakes was his best race.

The same goes for Jazil who stands at Shadwell Farm.

Remember how Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone was so successful as a stallion in a single year he had the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes winner. Granted, he too had won at 10 furlongs in the Travers Stakes, but I do think that his Belmont Stakes win was an attractive feature on his resume. 

If this were the case, most of the Derby entrants would not skip the Preakness Stakes to run in Belmont Stakes.

This happens regardless of whether there is a Triple Crown on the line.

I would argue that the Preakness Stakes, is more likely the least respected race by examining the caliber of the horses entered in that race - few Kentucky Derby starters - usually horses that could not make the Kentucky Derby.

Securing a win in the third leg of the Triple Crown, 12 furlongs or not, is still a meaningful goal of many trainers throughout the country.   
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Raven

Thank you MoT for all your informative posts!!!
call no man happy till he dies. ~SOLON~

Man o Taz

#29
A labor of love...

And here's the latest Chrews(Chrome News)...

California Chrome training well before Belmont
NEW YORK Wed May 28, 2014 2:25pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/28/us-horseracing-belmont-idUSKBN0E823H20140528

California Chrome Has Exercise Rider Raving After Belmont Gallop
May 28, 2014 8:40 AM
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/05/28/california-chrome-has-exercise-rider-raving-after-belmont-gallop/

Art Sherman explains why Chrome can win
May 27, 2014
http://www.10news.com/news/local-trainer-explains-why-california-chrome-has-the-goods-to-win-triple-crown-05272014

California Chrome on the verge of making history...
May 29, 2013
http://www.thecorsaironline.com/news/2014/05/28/california-chrome-on-verge-of-making-history-2/

Tough Race Sharping up for California Chrome
May 29, 2014
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/05/29/tough-race-shaping-up-for-california-chromes-triple-crown-bid-at-belmont/

Belmont Park hopes old song will do the trick
May 29, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/29/nyregion/belmont-park-hopes-old-song-will-break-triple-crown-drought.html?hpw&rref=nyregion&_r=0
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

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