My 44 years of Kentucky Derby picks

Started by jjacks1, October 25, 2013, 01:58:37 PM

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jjacks1

I loved horses when I was a child but I fell in love with the Kentucky Derby when I was still a little girl living in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. I was 10 when I watched my first Kentucky Derby on a little bitty black and white TV in my parents kitchen. When my Dad was transferred later that year to Appliance Park, I thought it was the best thing in the world - to actually LIVE in the town where the Derby was run. One of the first things I begged my parents to do after we moved was to visit Churchill Downs. I was awed to silence. In the 80's I moved to Chicago and watched the 1984 Derby on TV in a bar I was working at. When they played My Old Kentucky Home I cried like a baby. Now safely home again in Kentucky, I watch every year but I have never been. I would LOVE to go but I would actually like to see the horses. That's why I never did the infield thing when I was younger. I can see drunk idiots anytime but to see the Kentucky Derby is a treat that only comes once a year.
I love all the Derby winners, no matter how humble their later careers were. I didn't bet on many of them, but once they have won they are part of that noble roll call of names that started long ago with Aristides. So just for fun, I decided to do a list of who my picks were all these years and who actually won.
Which just goes to show you that no matter how much you LOVE the Derby and how close you are to Churchill Downs, you can't pick a winner better than anyone else. All I can say is - whoever I pick in 2014 - you should probably bet on someone else.  :D



Year      My Pick         Actual Winner
1969      Arts and Letters      (Majestic Prince)
1970       My Dad George      (Dust Commander)
1971      Jim French      (Canonero II)
1972      Hold Your Peace   (Riva Ridge)
1973      Sham         (Secretariat)
1974      Crimson Ruler      (Cannonade)
1975      Diablo         (Foolish Pleasure)
1976      Honest Pleasure   (Bold Forbes)
1977      Seattle Slew     (Seattle Slew)
1978       Alydar         (Affirmed)
1979      Flying Paster      (Spectacular Bid)
1980      Genuine Risk      (Genuine Risk) Gotta cheer for the girls!
1981      Noble Nashua      (Pleasant Colony)
1982      Air Forbes Won      (Gato Del Sol)
1983      Slew O'Gold      (Sunny's Halo)
1984      Althea         (Swale) Uh, cheer for the girls and all that.
1985      Tank's Prospect      (Spend A Buck)
1986      Ferdinand      (Ferdinand)
1987      Demons Begone   (Alysheba)
1988      Winning Colors      (Winning Colors) GOTTA cheer for the girls!
1989      Sunday Silence      (Sunday Silence)
1990      Summer Squall      (Unbridled)
1991      Best Pal         (Strike the Gold)
1992      Devil His Due      (Lil E Tee)
1993      Prairie Bayou      (Sea Hero)
1994      Go For Gin      (Go For Gin) It rained - I won $20 on a $2 bet
1995      Serena's Song      (Thunder Gulch) That girl thing again.
1996      Halo Sunshine      (Grindstone)
1997      Pulpit         (Silver Charm)
1998      Indian Charlie      (Real Quiet)
1999      Cat Thief      (Charismatic)
2000      More Than Ready   (Fusaichi Pegasus)
2001      Point Given      (Monarchos)
2002      Medaglia D'Oro      (War Emblem)
2003      Scrimshaw      (Funny Cide)
2004      Master David      (Smarty Jones)
2005      Going Wild      (Giacomo)
2006      Bluegrass Cat      (Barbaro)
2007      Nobiz Like Showbiz   (Street Sense)
2008      Eight Belles      (Big Brown) Love those girls!
2009       General Quarters   (Mine That Bird) Tom McCarthy was my husbands high school teacher.
2010      Jackson Bend      (Super Saver)
2011      Mucho Macho Man   (Animal Kingdom)
2012      Daddy Nose Best   (I'll Have Another)
2013      Revolutionary/Mylute   (Orb) Shanghai Bobby was my first choice.
Just another sh*tty day in Paradise

Flanders

Here are mine.  I probably watched the 1988 Derby but I don't know for sure.  I would have been 8.

1989      Easy Goer      (Sunday Silence)
1990      Summer Squall      (Unbridled)
1991      Fly So Free         (Strike the Gold)
1992      Arazi      (Lil E Tee)  I did want to pick A.P. Indy
1993      Rockamundo     (Sea Hero)
1994      Holy Bull     (Go For Gin)
1995      Timber Country      (Thunder Gulch)
1996      Unbridled's Song      (Grindstone)
1997      Pulpit         (Silver Charm)
1998      Cape Town/Old Trieste      (Real Quiet)
1999      Excellent Meeting/Three Ring      (Charismatic)
2000      Fusaichi Pegasus   (Fusaichi Pegasus)
2001      Point Given/Congaree      (Monarchos)
2002      Saarland      (War Emblem)
2003      Empire Maker      (Funny Cide)
2004      Smarty Jones      (Smarty Jones)
2005      Giacomo(longshot)      (Giacomo)
2006      Barbaro      (Barbaro)
2007      Hard Spun   (Street Sense)
2008      Pyro      (Big Brown)
2009      Friesan Fire   (Mine That Bird)
2010      Devil May Care/Lookin At Lucky     (Super Saver)
2011      Animal Kingdom   (Animal Kingdom) won $43.90 on a $2 bet
2012      Bodemeister   (I'll Have Another) would have hit the tri except I had Union Rags with I'll Have Another and Dullahan and Bode in my other trifecta
2013      Orb   (Orb)  only played him with others that didn't come in

Kennedy

My history isn't nearly as long but here are my historical selections

1997 - Captain Bodgit - 2nd
1998 - Victory Gallop - 2nd
1999 - Charismatic - 1st
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 1st
2001 - Monarchos - 1st
2002 - Private Emblem - 14th
2003 - Empire Maker - 2nd
2004 - The Cliffs Edge - 5th
2005 - High Fly - 10th
2006 - Brother Derek - 4th
2007 - Dominican - 11th
2008 - Colonel John - 6th
2009 - Papa Clem - 4th
2010 - Conveyance - 15th
2011 - Soldat - 11th
2012 - Creative Cause - 5th
2013 - Orb - 1st

Flintknapper

2003--Funny Cide
2004--Imperialism
2005--Buzzards Bay
2006--Lawyer Ron
2007--Street Sense
2008--Big Brown
2009--Friesan Fire
2010--Super Saver
2011--Animal Kingdom
2012--Creative Cause
2013--Verrazano

Secretariatluvr

I watched my first Kentucky Derby when I was 8.

2000 - More Than Ready - 4th
2001 - Songandaprayer - 13th
2002 - Harlan's Holiday - 7th
2003 - Empire Maker - 2nd
2004 - Imperialism - 3rd
2005 - Bellamy Road - 7th
2006 - Lawyer Ron - 13th
2007 - Nobiz Like Shobiz - 10th
2008 - Pyro - 8th
2009 - Chocolate Candy - 5th
2010 - Lookin At Lucky - 6th
2011 - Midnight Interlude - 16th
2012 - Creative Cause - 5th
2013 - Orb - 1st

afleetphil

2005  Bellamy Road
2006  Sweetnorthern Saint
2007 Street Sense
2008 Big Brown
2009 forget, but it wasn't MineThat Bird
2010 Dublin
2011 forget
2012 Union Rags
2013  Orb

Charlie

I have always loved horse racing, but didn't start picking horses til 2006, when I was 13. My records not nearly long as y'alls, but one day it'll get there. :)

2006: Barbaro (1st)
2007: I didn't really pay attention b/c of some personal problems.
2008: Pyro (8th)
2009: Pioneerof The Nile (2nd) and Frisian Fire
2010: Lucking at Lucky (6th), I did have Super Saver in a trifecta though
2011: Nehro (2nd)
2012: Union Rags (7th).. I figured Bodemeister would hit the board, but didn't look at I'll Have Another for whatever reason 
2013: Orb (1st) (my best year as picks go)

Zenyatta

You all have excellent memories, or are good record-keepers!

I only remember certain ones in particular, and whether I can remember the year, well, some of these were mentioned earlier in the thread.

Barbaro
Giacomo (yes, believe it or not)
Pioneerof the Nile
Point Given
Creative Cause, Gemologist

Catalina

That is sort of also my problem, a few I remember, but that's it.

Afleet Alex
Barbaro
Eight Belles
Regal Ransom (first choice was meant to be I Want Revenge, but we all know how that went)
American Lion
Bodemeister

Raven

#9
My 39 years

Winners that i picked
Seattle Slew
Spend a Buck
Sunday Silence
Unbridled
Funny Cide
Barbaro
Big Brown
I'll Have Another
ORB

ALYDAR is the only horse that i bet and lost that i care to mention!
call no man happy till he dies. ~SOLON~

Kennedy

Quote from: Zenyatta on October 28, 2013, 07:16:11 PM
You all have excellent memories, or are good record-keepers!


Good record keeping is the key. Memories can alter the facts over time but put it down on paper and you'll see where you really stand.

I think good record keeping is a key to getting better.

Secretariatluvr

Quote from: Zenyatta on October 28, 2013, 07:16:11 PM
You all have excellent memories, or are good record-keepers!
There were a few I didn't quite remember so I looked at the results charts and put down the one that seemed most familiar. :)

Catalina

Quote from: Kennedy on October 28, 2013, 08:43:02 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on October 28, 2013, 07:16:11 PM
You all have excellent memories, or are good record-keepers!


Good record keeping is the key. Memories can alter the facts over time but put it down on paper and you'll see where you really stand.

I think good record keeping is a key to getting better.

Good record keeping, but of a lot more than just the name.  Also of what criteria you looked at and how you weighted those criteria.

Man o Taz

2000 Fusaichi Pegasus - only because I saw him win the Wood.
2001 Invisible Ink
2002 Harlan's Holiday since we saw him win the Bluegrass Stakes
2003 Empire Maker because of his sire - but also liked Ten Cents A Shine because of his sire as well
2004 Smarty Jones - Philly Park favorite - loved the name
2005 Between Sun King and Afleet Alex
2006 Barbaro - because of Michael Matz who I knew of from showjumping
2007 Street Sense because of Mr. Nafzger trainer of one of my all-time favorites - Unbridled
2008 Pyro since seeing him in the BC Juvenile at Monmouth
2009 Chocolate Candy
2010 Super Saver because I liked his Arkansas Derby finish
2011 Master of Hounds
2012 Union Rags
2013 Revolutionary
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

General Assembly

The first Derby that I remember (and remember picking a horse) was 1976.  I've overall had a pretty good track record over the years.

1976 - Honest Pleasure - Finished 2nd
1977 - Seattle Slew - Won
1978 - Alydar - Finished 2nd
1979 - General Assembly (obvious by my Avatar name) - Finished 2nd
1980 - Genuine Risk (Gotta love the pretty filly - I also seemed to have a thing for Firestone owned horses) - Won
1981 - Cure The Blues (Firestone horse AGAIN) - Finished 15th
1982 - Gato Del Sol (was taking Spanish for the first time and couldn't resist) - Won
1983 - Slew O' Gold - Finished 4th (Was one of my favorites of the '80s being by Slew and looking a bit like Buckpasser).
1984 - Swale - Won (I rooted for him from the first time I saw him. I always thought he was a better classic prospect than Devil's Bag.)
1985 - Chief's Crown - Finished 3rd (He was soooo consistent. You had to respect him.)
1986 - Snow Chief - Finished 11th (Really the only clinker in his career)
1987 - Alysheba - (Loved the name and the Alydar connection plus I thought the extra distance would help)
1988 - Risen Star - Finished 3rd (The big Secretariat colt was good enough to have taken all three)
1989 - Easy Goer - Finished 2nd (Was always on his team even though Sunday Silence had his number all but once)
1990 - Summer Squall - Finished 2nd (Loved his mother and thought she was one of the prettiest mares I had ever seen).
1991 - Strike The Gold - Won (Saw his Bluegrass and was absolutely certain he would win.)
1992 - A.P. Indy (I know he didn't start, but I couldn't bring myself to pick something else after he was scratched the morning of.)
1993 - Prairie Bayou - Finished 2nd (Was gutted when he broke down in the Belmont.)
1994 - Strodes Creek - Finished 2nd (Halo as the sire and Wittingham as the trainer.)
1995 - Thunder Gulch - Won (Thought his Bluegrass was too bad to be true. Stuck with him all Spring and didn't jump ship.)
1996 - Editor's Note - Finished 6th (I was vindicated with his Belmont)
1997 - Pulpit - Finished 4th (Awesome field)
1998 - Indian Charlie - Finished 3rd (Not enough seasoning)
1999 - Charismatic - Won (Purely on looks)
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - Won (If ever a horse was born to win the Derby and also looked like a Derby winner)
2001 - Point Given - Finished 5th (Needed one more prep and to be placed further back in the field)
2002 - Came Home - Finished 6th ( He reminded me of Chief's Crown)
2003 - Peace Rules - Finished 3rd (was a fan of this hard knocking horse)
2004 - Smarty Jones - Won (Knew that tactical speed would be deadly on that mess of a track.)
2005 - Afleet Alex - Finished 3rd (Was on his bandwagon from the Hopeful on)
2006 - Barbaro - Won (He just looked like a man among boys in the post parade)
2007 - Street Sense - Won (After the Juvie win I was all-in)
2008 - Colonel John - Finished 6th (Had a feeling Big Brown would win, but couldn't pick him on principle)
2009 - Pioneer Of The Nile - Finished 2nd (Champion, Empire Maker as a sire, Baffert as a trainer made it hard not to pick)
2010 - Lookin At Lucky - Finished 6th (Picked him every time he ran)
2011 - Shackeford - Finished 4th (Just liked him)
2012 - Bodemeister - Finished 2nd (Thought he was anything but cheap speed.)
2013 - Orb - Won (I thought the race was going to set up perfectly for him and it did.


Thirteen winners, Nine seconds, and five thirds.... not too bad.

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