New Kentucky Derby Points Schedule 2012-2013 vs. 2013 vs. 2014

[Man o Taz]

Just a follow-up on Reply No. 25 where I forgot to finish a sentence:

Your point regarding Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, and Mine That Bird is a fair one in some respects. However, Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion so the idea that he was not top competition I believe is incorrect. Especially since as a winner of the Grey Cup and with a 4th place finish in the Sunland Derby he would have had more than enough points to make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby last year had the points system been in effect. We'll see if this trend continues with 10-14 points being the cut-off. I think it will based upon injuries, late bloomers, and less races where you can get points.

[curtis]

Just a follow-up on Reply No. 25 where I forgot to finish a sentence:

Your point regarding Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, and Mine That Bird is a fair one in some respects. However, Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion so the idea that he was not top competition I believe is incorrect. Especially since as a winner of the Grey Cup and with a 4th place finish in the Sunland Derby he would have had more than enough points to make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby last year had the points system been in effect. We'll see if this trend continues with 10-14 points being the cut-off. I think it will based upon injuries, late bloomers, and less races where you can get points.

My comment about Mine That Bird had nothing to do with the point system.  I know he was the Canadian Champion at two.  I also know he got absolutely drilled in the BC Juvenile while in Dick Mandella's barn.  So then he was transferred to--I can't remember his name, he was the cowboy who couldn't find a men's room.  Do you suppose if Mandella saw anything at all he might have wanted to keep him?  Do you suppose any so. CA trainer had seen anything in him they would have volunteered to take him?  The horse got hot and got good at precisely the right time.  The fact he could mud didn't hurt either.  This is why I don't like a point system to play god and decide whom should enter.  Though Mine That Bird might have snuck in anyway there are others that can't get in that might be able to run big on the first Saturday in May.  I also think if you look back, both Gato Del Sol and Charismatic had more going for them before the Derby than Mine That Bird did.  Didn't matter though they all got to get their pictures taken munching on roses.

[Man o Taz]

Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.

It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?

These seem contradictory ideas.

Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?

[Dance With Gable]

Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.

It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?

These seem contradictory ideas.

Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?

On paper ... it was baffling that Mine That Bird was in that race. There were only 2 horses in that field that I INSTANTLY tossed ... he was one of them.

But hey ... it's horse racing ... and as sometimes happens ... the result defied logic ... it happens ...

[curtis]

Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.

It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?

These seem contradictory ideas.

Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?

I never question any horse's worthiness to enter a race if a horse is healthy and able.  My point is that if you leave it up to neutral parties to decide who should be in a race, you very well may end up changing history  If you were going to leave a horse out based on supposed worthiness, Mine That Bird is a good example of one who could have been excluded.  Some horses loved Churchill Downs and were pre-disposed to get the distance, e.g. Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Charismatic, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, etc.  You could make the argument that horses like Hansel and Skip Away should have skipped the Derby because they didn't like Churchill.  Of course both horses belonged based on form so it was worth a shot and even if they didn't fit based on form as most of my examples, it was still worth a shot as long as it wasn't detrimental to the horse. 

If a horse wins the KY Derby they are a worthy Derby winner, even Dancer's Image.  I do think some Derby winners are better horses than others.  The only similarities between Secretariat and Gato Del Sol, for example, is that they both had four legs and a tail and won the Derby.  I liken it to the MLB Hall of Fame.  You have HOF outfielders like Willie Mays, Henry Aaron and Roberto Clemente and you also have Andre Dawson, Jim Rice and Carl Yaztrzemski.  The latter three are excellent players and worthy Hall of Famers but if I'm choosing a team, I'll take the former trio.

[Man o Taz]

Good points.

You are right and we cannot know by graded stakes earnings, or a point system now how many horses might have or will be excluded who might have done quite well in the Kentucky Derby.

And I also agree that just because you might not actually do well over the track, that does not mean you should not at least try the race if you qualify.

And I agree that some Kentucky Derby winning horses are better than others (and this is usually based upon what they do before and after the race)  - but I do not believe that some Kentucky winners are more deserving than others.

I believe all the horses who have won the race are deserving winners.

Also, in my thinking with a 20 horse field - bad luck is a legitimate circumstances to factor in - because a field that size is always going to create adverse conditions .

[Man o Taz]

How about this for the Kentucky Derby points system?

You set a points minimum total to get in the gate. Something like 30 or 40 points.

Only horses who accumulate that many points are eligible to get in the gate.

This way if horses don't meet the point total then you only have 10-12 horses competing.

If you get more than 20 horses who meet that number, then you break the tie with the horse with the greatest number of points.

This is actually what I had hoped the point system would do - force horses to compete more to get in the starting gate - not less. 

[Man o Taz]

OK - so perhaps I am wrong in suggesting that this year will have the same or less points getting in the gate for the Kentucky Derby than occurred last year with the contraction of Derby points races...it seems we have many more horses with 10 points or more at this stage of the game than we had last year - and 10 points was the lowest points number for the Kentucky Derby 2013...

Giant Finish had 10 points and got in the gate. Fear The Kitten did not make it in with 6.

Of course, many of the 10 point horses right now are likely to increase their number.

The reality is that in 2013 the points total ranged from 10 points to 150 points.

This is why I think a point minimum may be a good approach. 

Here are the current standings...

Rank    Horse    Trainer    Points    Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1    Intense Holiday    Todd Pletcher    53    $327,500
2    Wildcat Red    Jose Garrafalo    50    $410,000
3    Albano    Larry Jones    24    $150,000
4    Tapiture    Steve Asmussen    22    $300,738
5    Vicar's in Trouble    Mike Maker    20    $160,000
6    General a Rod    Mike Maker    20    $140,000
7    Havana    Todd Pletcher    14    $660,000
8    Cairo Prince    Kiaran McLaughlin    14    $470,000
9    Honor Code    Shug McGaughey    14    $340,000
10    Tamarando    Jerry Holldendorfer    12    $490,000
11    Midnight Hawk    Bob Baffert    12    $84,000
12    Bond Holder    Doug O'Neill    11    $273,000
13    Rise Up    Tom Amoss    10    $786,633
14    We Miss Artie    Todd Pletcher    10    $262,000
15    Candy Boy    John Sadler    10    $260,000
16    Samraat    Rick Violette    10    $150,000
17    Noble Moon    Leah Gyarmati    10    $145,000
18    Ami's Holiday    Josie Carroll    10    $136,145
19    Cleburne    Dale Romans    10    $102,044
20    Tanzanite Cat    Cody Autrey    10    $99,000
21    Top Billing    Shug McGaughey    10    $40,000
22    Strong Mandate    D. Wayne Lukas    6    $442,500
23    Casiguapo    Mario Morales    5    $271,050
24    Classic Giacnroll    Lisa Guerrero    5    $62,500
25    Ride On Curlin    Billy Gowan    5    $94,387
26    East Hall    Bill Kaplan    5    $47,550
27    Hoppertunity    Bob Baffert    5    $16,000
28    Conquest Titan    Mark Casse    4    $163,445
29    Smarty's Echo    Anne Smith    4    $82,000
30    Uncle Sigh    Gary Contessa    4    $50,000
31    Walt    Chris Hartman    4    $45,857
32    Scotland    Tony Dutrow    4    $45,000
33    Chitu    Bob Baffert    4    $40,000
34    Laddie Boy    Chuck Peery    4    $39,719
35    Smart Cover    Dale Romans    4    $32,918
36    Big Bazinga    Sandra Dominguez    4    $29,139
37    Kristo    John Sadler    4    $20,000
38    Coastline    Mark Casse    3    $77,979
39    Enterprising    Tom Proctor    2    $91,100
40    Arctic Slope    Ken McPeek    2    $41,572
41    Wicked Strong    Jimmy Jerkens    2    $40,000
42    Gold Hawk    Steve Asmussen    2    $28,000
43    Awesome Sky    Mark Casse    2    $16,819
44    Diamond Bachelor    Patrick Biancone    1    $92,000
45    Rum Point    Doug O'Neill    1    $30,250
46    Almost Famous    Patrick Byrne    1    $23,079
47    Matuszak    Bill Mott    1    $12,667
48    Son of a Preacher    Bret Calhoun    1    $11,500
49    Buck Magic    Dave Fawkes    1    $8,410
50    I'll Wrap It Up    Doug O'Neill    1    $6,000

Another corollary that is interesting to observe is - whether the new point system is putting less qualified horses in the gate...

One measure of this may be to examine the graded stakes earnings... of the entries...

Here is the final point for the Derby entries and it seems a bit disturbing...

Two on the entrants had stakes earnings of less than $100,000.

The irony, of course, is that one of those horses finished 2nd in the race which actually may lend support to curtis's argument that there should not be any Derby entrant qualification...all the horses who want to enter - should be able to enter...because as we saw last year - the 19th horse in terms of points and earnings finished a credible second. 

Kentucky Derby 2013 point standings

Rank    Horse    Trainer    Points    Non-restricted Stakes Earnings
1    Orb    Shug McGaughey III    150    $840,000
2    Verrazano    Todd Pletcher    150    $810,000
3    Goldencents    Doug O'Neill    129    $1,208,000
4    Java's War    Ken McPeek    122    $651,772
5    Overanalyze    Todd Pletcher    110    $908,831
6    Revolutionary    Todd Pletcher    110    $720,000
7    Lines of Battle    Aidan O'Brien    100    $1,261,089
8    Vyjack    Rudy Rodriguez    70    $505,000
9    Will Take Charge    D. Wayne Lukas    60    $512,971
10    Itsmyluckyday    Eddie Plesa, Jr.    50    $593,600
11    Black Onyx    Kelly Breen    50    $317,130
12    Palace Malice    Todd Pletcher    50    $200,000
13    Normandy Invasion    Chad Brown    44    $258,000
14    Frac Daddy    Ken McPeek    44    $240,596
15    Mylute    Tom Amoss    42    $363,365
16    Oxbow    D. Wayne Lukas    36    $346,000
17    Falling Sky    John Terranova II    30    $207,500
18    Charming Kitten    Todd Pletcher    20    $206,000
19    Golden Soul    Dallas Stewart    14    $84,000
20    Giant Finish    Tony Dutrow    10    $67,650
21    Fear the Kitten    Mike Maker    6    $122,735
22    Carving    Mike Puhich    2    $145,750

[Man o Taz]

As it stands now, it looks like 10 will get you in...we'll see if that holds. If the favorites end up winning for the second year in a row it looks like that could be the mark.

For me, this is a low threshold and does not speak to encouraging quality to get in the gate.

As I have suggested, I think there should be a points minimum. 25 points or more are necessary to get in the gate. If you cannot achieve that, then only the horses with 25 or more points get in the gate.

I also highlighted 3 in the top 20 points wise that have yet to race this year. Of course, Honor Code we hope will change that...this week.

Updated: March 8, 2014
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

Rank    Horse    Trainer    Points    Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1    Samraat    Rick Violette Jr.    60    $450,500
2    Intense Holiday    Todd Pletcher    53    $327,500
3    Wildcat Red    Jose Garrafalo    50    $410,000
4    Ring Weekend    H. Graham Motion    50    $210,000
5    California Chrome    Art Sherman    50    $182,250
6    Midnight Hawk    Bob Baffert    32    $144,000
t-7    Albano    Larry Jones    24    $150,000
t-7    Uncle Sigh    Gary Contessa    24    $150,000
9    Tapiture    Steve Asmussen    22    $300,738
10    Vinceremos    Todd Pletcher    20    $190,000
11    Vicar's in Trouble    Mike Maker    20    $160,000
12    General a Rod    Mike Maker    20    $140,000
13    Havana    Todd Pletcher    14    $660,000
14    Cairo Prince    Kiaran McLaughlin    14    $470,000
15    Honor Code    Shug McGaughey    14    $340,000
16    Kristo    John Sadler    14    $56,000
17    Tamarando    Jerry Holldendorfer    12    $490,000
18    Bond Holder    Doug O'Neill    11    $273,000
19    Rise Up    Tom Amoss    10    $786,633
20    We Miss Artie    Todd Pletcher    10    $262,000
21    Candy Boy    John Sadler    10    $260,000
22    In Trouble    Tony Dutrow    10    $170,000
23    Noble Moon    Leah Gyarmati    10    $145,000
24    Ami's Holiday    Josie Carroll    10    $136,145
25    Cleburne    Dale Romans    10    $102,044
26    Tanzanite Cat    Cody Autrey    10    $99,000
27    Surfing USA    Todd Pletcher    10    $35,000
28    Conquest Titan    Mark Casse    9    $180,495
29    Strong Mandate    D. Wayne Lukas    6    $442,500
30    Casiguapo    Mario Morales    5    $271,050
31    Ride On Curlin    Billy Gowan    5    $94,387
32    Financial Mogul    Rick Violette, Jr    5    $93,000
33    Classic Giacnroll    Lisa Guerrero    5    $62,500
34    East Hall    Bill Kaplan    5    $47,550
35    Schoolofhardknocks    David Hofmans    5    $18,000
36    Hoppertunity    Bob Baffert    5    $16,000
37    Smarty's Echo    Anne Smith    4    $82,000
38    Walt    Chris Hartman    4    $45,857
39    Scotland    Tony Dutrow    4    $45,000
40    Laddie Boy    Chuck Peery    4    $42,599
41    Chitu    Bob Baffert    4    $40,000
42    Smart Cover    Dale Romans    4    $32,918
43    Big Bazinga    Sandra Dominguez    4    $29,139
44    Coastline    Mark Casse    3    $77,979
45    Enterprising    Tom Proctor    2    $91,100
46    Arctic Slope    Ken McPeek    2    $41,572
47    Wicked Strong    Jimmy Jerkens    2    $40,000
48    Gold Hawk    Steve Asmussen    2    $28,000
49    Awesome Sky    Mark Casse    2    $16,819
50    Diamond Bachelor    Patrick Biancone    1    $92,000
51    Rum Point    Doug O'Neill    1    $30,250
52    Almost Famous    Patrick Byrne    1    $23,079
53    Matuszak    Bill Mott    1    $22,667
54    Son of a Preacher    Bret Calhoun    1    $11,500
55    Buck Magic    Dave Fawkes    1    $8,410
56    I'll Wrap It Up    Doug O'Neill    1    $6,000

[Man o Taz]

I do find it curious that the points field has been trimmed from 56 horses to 45...is that because horses are injured?

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

Rank    Horse    Trainer    Points    Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1    California Chrome    Art Sherman    150    $782,250
2    Vicar's in Trouble    Mike Maker    120    $760,000
3    Wicked Strong    James Jerkens            102    $640,000
4    Samraat    Rick Violette Jr.            100    $650,500
5    Constitution    Todd Pletcher            100    $600,000
6    Hoppertunity    Bob Baffert              95    $576,000
7    Intense Holiday    Todd Pletcher      93    $527,500
8    Wildcat Red    Jose Garrofalo              90    $665,500
9    We Miss Artie    Todd Pletcher              60    $544,000
10    Chitu    Bob Baffert                      54    $440,000
11    Midnight Hawk    Bob Baffert      52    $320,500
12    Ring Weekend    H. Graham Motion      50    $260,000
13    Tapiture    Steve Asmussen              42    $420,738
14    General a Rod    Mike Maker              40    $240,000
15    Albano    Larry Jones                      34    $190,000
16    Candy Boy    John Sadler              30    $380,000
17    Cairo Prince    Kiaran McLaughlin      24    $520,000
18    Uncle Sigh    Gary Contessa      24    $180,000
19    Vinceremos    Todd Pletcher              20    $190,000
20    Harry's Holiday    Mike Maker      20    $150,956
21    Commanding Curve    Dallas Stewart   20    $140,000
22    Social Inclusion    Manny Azpurua  20    $100,000
23    Ride on Curlin    Billy Gowan              15    $154,387
24    Kristo    John Sadler                      14    $60,000
25    Coastline    Mark Casse                      13    $129,679
26    Tamarando    Jerry Holldendorfer      12    $495,000
27    Strong Mandate    D. Wayne Lukas 11    $472,500
28    Rise Up    Tom Amoss                       10    $786,633
29    Giovanni Boldini    Aidan O'Brien       10    $345,676
30    In Trouble    Tony Dutrow               10    $190,000
31    Noble Moon    Leah Gyarmati               10    $149,000
32    Cleburne    Dale Romans                       10    $127,044
33    Commissioner    Todd Pletcher               10    $104,000
34    Dublin Up    Peter Miller               10    $20,000
35    Schiverelli    Eddie Kenneally       10    $50,000
36    Conquest Titan    Mark Casse         9    $180,495
37    Dance With Fate    Peter Eurton         8    $150,000
38    Casiguapo    Mario Morales                 5    $271,050
39    East Hall    Bill Kaplan                         5    $77,550
40    Classic Giacnroll    Lisa Guerrero         5    $62,500
41    Asserting Bear    Reade Baker         5    $31,432
42    Schoolofhardknocks  David Hofmans    5            $18,000
43    Scotland    Tony Dutrow                         4    $45,000
44    Big Bazinga    Katerina Vassilieva         4    $44,469
45    Smart Cover    Dale Romans                 4    $38,418

[peeptoad]

Toast of New York ain't going, but it looks like you already removed him from the points standings:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-toast-new-york-will-not-travel-churchill-downs

[peeptoad]

BRIS pps by points ranking:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby14PointsPPs.pdf

[Man o Taz]

Thanks for the pps. That's a nice link.

[Senator L]

did you see this? From DRF

The decision to skip the Derby has a significant impact in terms of the likely Derby field, since Albano was ranked 15th on the Derby points list with 34. His defection, combined with the withdrawal earlier this week of Toast of New York, helps horses who will end up on the bubble in terms of making the Derby field, which is capped at 20 runners.

[Man o Taz]

No. Did not see that. Seems like Cairo Prince is getting in since it looks like Dance With Fate will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness since his trainer does not want to run him on three weeks rest.