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Kentucky Derby Top 10 – 2014 (December 2013)
1. New Year's Day
2. Cousin Stephen
3. Honor Code
4. Cairo Prince
5. Mosler
6. Tap It Rich
7. Commissioner
8. Tapiture
9. Surfing USA
10. Strong Mandate
Radar
Bobby's Kitten, Misconnect, Commanding Curve, In Trouble, Notability, Lunarwarfare, Shared Belief, Havana, Bond Holder, Mexikoma, Harpoon
This has been an interesting crop of 2yo's thus far. The one thing that has struck me has been the sense of parity. Every time a stakes race is run we seem to learn that the established stakes class isn't better than the maiden winners that have joined them. By my count we've only had 5 graded races for juveniles that were won by horses who had finished in the money in any race other than a maiden. One of those happened to be the KY Jockey Club where the winner had finished in the money in a graded race but was still a maiden and most recently ran third in a maiden.
This is a natural phenomenon to some degree but what has stood out to me most is that I don't really believe that any of them are clearly better than the rest of the crop. It would not shock me to learn on Derby day that none of the top finishers had run in a stakes race through November of this year.
I have narrowed down my top 10 Derby choices in order that I feel most comfortable with but then I look at the next 10 horses I have listed on my radar and I'd be almost as comfortable if that group were my top 10. There aren't a group of horses or even a single horse that I really believe in at this point. Having said there I think there are a few positive things that can be said about some contenders out there.
New Year's Day – I think that the popular opinion on him is that he was lucky that Havana and Strong Mandate did so much hard work in the juvenile and couldn't finish but I think that this horse still has a lot of room to improve and he should get better with distance. His BC Juvenile prep was less than ideal with having to miss what would have been his major prep race. His maiden win was pretty good in its own right and who knows, with another prep race prior to the Juvenile he may have worked his way onto the shortlist of favorites. Either way I'm not sure he was that lucky in the Juvenile I think he was just capable of finishing in a race where few others were. He isn't a late runner and I think he'll show good tactical speed in most of his prep races. He also isn't a monster, at least not from what I've seen. I fully expect this horse to lose a prep race or two but like Real Quiet I expect him to show some decent form despite perhaps not winning.
Cousin Stephen – His racing career has been quite brief and I think it would be stretching it a bit to say he's been brilliant but he did show a glimpse of real promise in his last race. In his debut he was easily handled by Mosler but that was a tough place to start your career. Next out at Aqueduct he dominated a 9f maiden race. What was most impressive was the way he quickened and drew away from this group. He finished very brightly and his closing splits of 12.8 and 24.8 are decent for a young horse in a race that wasn't falsely run. Coup de Grace seems to be the stable #1 in many people's opinion but I prefer this guy. His lineage does not scream classic Derby pedigree but I think that there is enough there to at least not place him at a disadvantage.
Honor Code – The most talked about horse on the TC trail. He'll have a near cult following and will be bet down each and every time he runs. Because of his profile it's going to be a common exercise for the "sharp" minds to try and beat him when he runs. I am firmly between the camps. Honor Code is a good horse and seems to have the right to improve as much as anyone in this crop. He also seems to be, at this moment, as talented as anyone and distance should help him. He has many of the right tools. He may be as good as anyone but there are a few horses that could say the same thing. The Beyer level he is performing at is decent but not at all difficult for even a first timer to equal. As time goes on more and more horses will achieve his current level of performance. He has to improve a great deal. The good news is that he looks like he can.
Cairo Prince – Like many people I was hoping that the Remsen would tell us a little more about his capabilities. It didn't turn out that way because the race was falsely run but if you look at the bare facts he is a nose away from being undefeated. His only loss came by a nose to the horse that most people consider to be the best of this crop. I thought the ride he got was curious and perhaps didn't give him the best chance to beat Honor Code. 10f still looms as a potential problem for him but he seems like one of the most talented horses of the crop.
Mosler – He only won a maiden race and the speed figure he got was nothing special but he's earned the respect of many and his maiden victory seemed to be a key race as many next out winners emerged. I would maybe have him higher up the list but I really don't know where he is. I'm assuming some kind of setback but not one serious enough to get a big headline. So I hope he can get back to the track soon enough to be properly prepared. A lot of people would love this horse to give Mott success in the Derby but you also know that Mott will pull the plug on the TC prep if the horse isn't perfect. That should give you confidence in March and April if he's still in the mix but right now it makes me nervous that he might not be joining the dance. I think that he could be any kind and could easily top my list at some point.
Tap It Rich – He grabbed a lot of headlines because of his maiden win but I think the Juvenile wasn't really the best place to put him so quickly after that triumph. I thought he stayed on decently in that race. Given the circumstances he did not tarnish his reputation in my eyes. So he has the world before him. He could really run in to any type of horse. I do think that 10f will be within his scope and I do feel that he could have a touch of brilliance about him. I like his overall profile form a tactical standpoint. Despite not breaking the best in his maiden and falling into the pack a bit in the Juvenile I do think that he will have the tactical ability to sit mid-pack or closer and still finish. I have a generally positive outlook on his prospect for improvement.
Commissioner – He hasn't been seen since winning a near stagger fest at Saratoga but in his defense he was asked to go 9f pretty early on and was also in a drive a long way from home. The fact that he was able to sustain that drive for that long while moving away from all put the second place finisher hinted at some decent staying ability. The real trick will be proving he's good enough. As long as Pletcher has him fit I think he might actually be the #1 TC prospect in the barn. Most of Pletcher's other horses seem to have distance concerns. Commissioner doesn't seem very flashy but I'm interested to see how he develops.
Tapiture – His connections has long thought of him as a good horse in the making but he didn't give us a true glimpse until just recently when he waltzed away from the field in the KY Jockey Club. It was a good performance for a horse who had not won a race but for me the real test will come in his next race. Can he step it up another level? Can he run fast? Will he continue to relish more distance? I see him as a bit shaky at 10f but probably adequate. The biggest hurdle will be to turn into a horse that can win. Many do once they finally get a taste for it.
Surfing USA – His breeding is going to raise questions but he has looked pretty sharp so far and he has also finished both of his races quite well. I was pretty impressed with the way he closed out his last race at Aqueduct. It looked as though his rivals were going to get to him but he just kept going and held them rather safely in the end. I'm not sure how that will translate going forward but I do think that his next step (8.5f) will be no problem. He has a lot of natural speed but he seems like a kindly horse to handle. His perseverance through the lane should stand him in good stead.
Strong Mandate – As I have been working on this list no horse has bounced in and out of my top 10 more than Strong Mandate. The positives are his class and the obvious fact that he will run in every prep race available as well as all three TC races as long as he doesn't break down. He will certainly be given the opportunity to take his chance. I am by no means an expert Lukas observer but it seems to me that his training style is to get a horse into action and let them improve through racing. He obviously is able to identify raw talent but has a tendency to throw raw talent horses into top races before the talent has matured. You see it over and over with his big stars. They often run in many stakes races before they put it together and start winning races. The fact that Strong Mandate is already a G-1 winner is certainly in his favor. His inconsistencies could show that he hasn't figured it out they could also reveal that he is simply a horse prone to inconsistency. Distance should help this horse if his breeding is any guide although he has looked his sharpest in sprint races thus far. For me he is definitely the hardest one to make up my mind about. I'm not sure if I expect him to get better or not.
