Winter Challenge Stakes (Entries)

[CA_Chrome]

The vast majority of people I know who use figs do not believe this, so I have to ask how you came to this conclusion?
Honest question...

An assumption on my part based on how people I know in my own life use speed figures. Honest answer. 

[peeptoad]

Fair enough!

[Man o Taz]

Just curious, what sort of quantifiable measurable statistic do you use to compare horses performances?

Seems like everybody produces a speed figure, Equibase, Brisnet, Ragozin, Thorograph to name a few.  The formula, about as secret as CocaCola, differs for each as some emphasize weight carried and ground lost while racing wide while others will include wind resistance.  But the fact is that there is a unit of measure for comparison's sake, which ever speed figure you choose to use.

Seems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time?  What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.

I use speed figures because as quantifiable measures go they are basically all that is out there. But I use a lot of figures. BSFs, Timeform, Equibase, etc. I do not really use BRIS figures.

I also like to look at Trakus and see how the dynamics of the race played out. I have to admit most of my handicapping is really post-race. I want to understand why what happened in a race happened. This helps me the next time I deal with the horses in an upcoming race. I see if the same challenges exist which may have compromised them or if they are in a better position. And I rely probably too much on peidgree.

[peeptoad]

And I rely probably too much on peidgree.

I used to look at pedigree where the Triple Crown races were concerned because there is generally less form to go with younger, developing horses, but after the 2011 Belmont stakes I threw that right out the window.

[Man o Taz]

I look at 2011 as an anomaly.

I still like pedigree for all races. And someone also told me once, maybe it was you, that the best routers also make the best sprinters, but because there is more money in routing they do that instead.

I always found that interesting. 

[CA_Chrome]

So Equibase awarded Chrome's Winter Challenge race their highest speed figure of 2016: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure

So someone like me who doesn't have faith in speed figures now has whiplash -- a low 104 from Beyer and a high 130 from Equibase. Also, if you skim some of the over 230 comments (and ignore the silly off-point arguments), you'll see people are all over the place about the validity (or lack thereof) of these figures.

[peeptoad]

So Equibase awarded Chrome's Winter Challenge race their highest speed figure of 2016: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure

So someone like me who doesn't have faith in speed figures now has whiplash -- a low 104 from Beyer and a high 130 from Equibase. Also, if you skim some of the over 230 comments (and ignore the silly off-point arguments), you'll see people are all over the place about the validity (or lack thereof) of these figures.

For some who doesn't have faith in something you seem to spend an awful lot of time and energy focusing on it. You'd think with all that spent time you'd have learned something about them by now.  And it's if causing you pain, causing you whiplash, please by all means stop focusing on that which you don't like and don't understand.

[CA_Chrome]

For some who doesn't have faith in something you seem to spend an awful lot of time and energy focusing on it. You'd think with all that spent time you'd have learned something about them by now.  And it's if causing you pain, causing you whiplash, please by all means stop focusing on that which you don't like and don't understand.

Such an unnecessarily harsh post on this Friday before Christmas. There is an article about the Equibase speed figure at Bloodhorse.com with now over 250 comments. Seemed worthwhile to me to add it to the discussion here. Sad that it wasn't welcome, but I can happily move on. 

[Man o Taz]

But you have to understand that many of the commenters at Bloodhorse are probably like me and do not understand what speed figures are, what they are used for, and what the particular numbers mean. Without this knowledge, it is impossible to really assess their value. :-)

[peeptoad]

I hope you understand my completely objective point. You yourself are be laboring the issue.
Happy holidays and, yes, please move on.
I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums, since I seem to do it no matter how objective I try to be.

[stark]

I think there are ratings for all kinds of stuff that most people don't know or understand exactly what goes into them.  When shopping in the supermarket for beef you can choose from Prime, Select and Choice.  Which one do you think is the best?  Most would say Prime, but if you prefer the flavor of Select so be it or if your budget says Choice, then Choice it is.

How about shopping at Sears for paint, you can choose between Good, Better and Best.  Nobody needs to know how they come up with their rankings in order to make a solid purchase to meet their needs, and best costs more than better!

If you gamble, most will agree you need an edge against the house in order to profit.  In horse racing there are Bonnie Ledbetter disciples who never look at a past performance list and they rely on the body language of the horse on the track.  Then there are those who use something akin to Beyer Speed Figures to compare this shipper from Emerald Downs jumping up in class at Santa Anita, is he fast enough to compete?   And there are those who think the speed figures aren't complicated enough and that stuff like ground loss, weight and wind velocity should be part of the formula so they pay a little more for Ragozin and Thorograph sheets, to each their own I say.

But the point is its all about comparing one horse's performance with another.  If you've developed your own system, so be it, congratulations.  But some here have said that they take lists from sources like DRF based on Beyer's or some other number with a "grain of salt" simply because they don't understand them, I find that to be more than a tad disrespectful.  So in turn and with all due respect, I've got to say that I'll just take your lists and comparisons with a grain of salt, sorry you put so much time and effort into them.

If your point is simply to make a list in 20-20 hindsight and not gamble who the best horses were, which race of a particular horse was their best, then why limit your skills to horse racing? Best Movie, Best Actor, Best President, Best Baseball Player, Best Concert, Best Song, Brunette or Blonde, Stanford or Berkeley, Army or Navy, ohhhh there's so much work to be done!

Merry Friday before Christmas to all.

[CA_Chrome]

I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums...

You haven't made an enemy. I'm not so shallow as to consider someone an enemy whom I've never even met. My interest is the discussion...the conversation.

[Dusty]

I hope you understand my completely objective point. You yourself are be laboring the issue.
Happy holidays and, yes, please move on.
I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums, since I seem to do it no matter how objective I try to be.

Peep - I am totally with you on this!