Eclipse Award predictions

[Ballerina]

Thoughts from Ed DeRosa

https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2013/11/2/post-breeders-cup-championship-picture

[Man o Taz]

Horse of the Year - Wise Dan
Granted, Dan does not have a sterling dirt performance like he had last year, or a win on synthetic like he had last year, but he does have a win at 9 furlongs on turf to go with his stellar performances at a mile. There is no horse other than perhaps Game On Dude who has had a more consistent high level of performance throughout the year. The difference between the two is that in the biggest race of the year in his division, Wise Dan won, and Game on Dude did not. 

Champion Older Male - Game On Dude

Game on Dude was the best, most consistent route horse all year. His competition was among the best in the country. He beat Ron The Greek in California after he came into the race off a career high BSF. He won at Charles Town in the Classic there against the best East Coast horses. And he accomplished an impressive win in the Pacific Classic.

Fort Larned last year did not win the older male award last year despite a resume that included two G1 wins including the Classic and the Whitney, and two other graded stakes wins and another stakes win.

I picked Mucho Macho Man to win the Classic, but I do not think he deserves champion older male because his resume of stellar achievements is more restricted. He has won two G1 races in the Awesome Again and the BC Classic. While he has placed in other races, this is the extent of his winning achievements.

Mucho Macho Man should be among the finalists though. And Wise Dan probably as well.

Champion Older Female - Royal Delta

Royal Delta is lucky that Princess and Beholder are three year olds. Her recent loss means that the competition might be closer. However, her resume is still quite impressive with her G1 wins in the Personal Ensign and the Delaware Handicap. The only other potentials are Joyful Victory, Tiz Miss Sue, and Authenticity.

Champion Three Year Old Male - Will Take Charge?

This is a tough one. Will Take Charge seems to have jumped to the head of the line based upon his impressive showing in the Breeder's Cup Classic. However, I think Orb still has a slim chance.

During the first half of the year, Orb hands down was the best three year old running. During the second half of the year, Will Take Charge has taken the mantle and run with it literally.

If Orb secures a win in the Cigar Mile over Cross Traffic and Graydar which he is being pointed toward, then I believe that he should receive the award. If not, then Will Take Charge with his G1 win in the Travers, his G2 wins in the Pennsylvania Derby and the Rebel and his 2nd place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic should give him the award.

I think the third finalist should be Goldencents. He won the BC Dirt Mile, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Sham Stakes.

Champion Three Year Old Female - Beholder?

This is a question mark too in my mind. I guess the edge has to go to Beholder since she has a BC win, and another G1 win over older females in the Zenyatta and two G1 wins in the Las Virgenes and the Santa Anita Oaks.

However, Princess of Sylmar has an impressive win in the G1 Alabama at 10 furlongs and the G1 Kentucky Oaks, and the G1 Beldame to go with her G1 win in the Coaching Club American Oaks.

I think Close Hatches should be another finalist.

Champion Two Year Old Male - New Year's Day?

There is so little on the resumes of the two year olds as expected.

New Year's Day has the win in the BC Juvenile.

Havana has the win in the Champagne Stakes.

Strong Mandate has the win in the Hopeful.

It will be interesting to see Honor Code does in the Remsen, but unless it is a record setting performance I doubt that he moves in front of any of these contenders.

Champion Two Year Old Female - Ria Antonia

Here there is a more confused situation.

She's A Tiger was taken down. She came in off an impressive win in the G1 Debutante and a second in the G1 Chandelier ikn which the ill-fated Secret Compass had won. And Ria Antonia has the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies which she has won. And then there is Artemis Agrotera.

My sentimental choice would be for Secret Compass.

Champion Turf Male - Wise Dan

Wise Dan was so consistent this year. 7 races run - all wins and a second. 6 wins on turf from 8 to 9 furlongs.

Other nominees invited should include: Point of Entry for his two G1 performance earlier in the year in the Manhattan and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and Obviously - another miler with two G2 wins and a G1 win in the Shoemaker Mile.

Champion Turf Female - Dank

Her wins in the BC Filly and Mare Turf and the Beverly D. show her to be the best here. I know those are two races, but they are two impressive performances.

I know Emolient has won three G1races this year, but I thought Dank was more special.

The other finalists are tough between Kitten's Dumplings, Alterite, Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious.

Champion Male Sprinter - Points Offthebench

Ordinarily the BC Sprint winner gets it, but POTB's  two G1 wins and the fact that he was the likely favorite in the BC Sprint before he was taken from us makes him more than a sentimental choice.

And one finalist has to be Secret Circle - the BC winner. The other finalist is really tough to choose between Private Zone, Justine Phillip, Strapping Groom, Sahara Sky, etc.

Champion Female Sprinter - Groupie Doll

No doubt. She had a brief year, but she bested a quality field.

Other finalists - who knows -- maybe Dance to Bristol?

[Vic in Chicago]

I agree with Man o Taz on every category except Older Male, where I would go with Wise Dan.  If I'm not mistaken, both Dan and the Dude only lost one race, but in his Dan finished second, while the Dude finished 9th (in the big one!).  MMM had a great finish to the year, but a disappointing Spring.  Just my opinion.

[jjacks1]

And I partly agree with everybody! 

I'd give HOTY and Older Male to Wise Dan as Vic said.

Champion Older Female to Royal Delta as Man o Taz said.

Champion 3 yr old male - have to agree with the Taz Man there.

Champion 3 yr old female - Princess of Sylmar

Champion 2 yr old male - Havana

Champion 2 yr old female - She's a Tiger

[Man o Taz]

My feelings are starting to waffle a little bit on champion three year old filly.

The three year old fillies this year were very strong.

Granted Beholder won twice against older horses and those races included a number of the best Eastern horses in them.

However, Princess of Sylmar had the top three year old filly in the bag when her connections chose to race her in the championship race which made that race one of the stronger ones at the BC this year. Is she to be penalized by this?

And the races that POS won are among the most prestigious in the country.

Though, it was a championship race. What is a championship race if it does not stand for the championship among two equally matched horses in every other respect.

And Beholder traveled out East to Churchill and Princess traveled out West to the BC.

Beholder finished second in the Kentucky Oaks - but POS finished last in the Distaff.

So its a very tough call.   

They are both very deserving.   

[Ballerina]

Fans Choose Wise Dan as Top Horse in Year-End NTRA Poll

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/fans-choose-wise-dan-as-top-horse-in-year-end-ntra-poll/

[Kennedy]

Horse of the Year - Wise Dan
His challenge for HOTY is stronger this year than it was last year and his competition is weaker. This should be his easiest win of the year

Champion Older Male - Game On Dude
I really hope that the voters resist the notion to give this one to Wise Dan. Although not explicit in the non-existent requirements for each division the spirit of this award is that it is meant for main track horses and Game On dude was the best main track horse this season

Champion Older Female - Royal Delta
No one else put together a significant challenge this year. While authenticity performed at a high level all year she lost far too often.

Champion Three Year Old Male - Goldencents (Orb)
I'm projecting here based on a win in the Cigar Mile for Goldencents. If not I think the default choice should be Orb. He won more G-1 races than WTC and finished ahead of him in 3 out of 4 meetings.

Champion Three Year Old Female - Beholder
Unlucky to see Princess of Sylmar not rewarded for her campaign but Beholder is a better horse and the voters will flock to her.

Champion Two Year Old Male - New Year's Day
Still wide open and I'd like to reserve judgement but if pressed for an answer right now I'd prefer Havana. (Especially if honor Code wins the Remsen) but i think the voters will back the Baffert horse.

I think it would be interesting to see if Outstrip gets any support. He had arguably a better campaign than any other juvenile who raced in america and he probably won the tougher BC race as well.

Champion Two Year Old Female - She's a Tiger
She's a tiger should win this unless the Starlet winner is super impressive. like the juvenile division judgment should be reserved but She's a Tiger should have her nose in front at the moment.

Champion Turf Male - Wise Dan
No contest.

Champion Turf Female - Dank
Dank will win this but I would personally vote an American based horse and i think the clear choice there is Laughing.

Champion Male Sprinter - Sahara Sky
No one put up a good enough campaign to erase his memory. Points Offthebench will make it close but did not do enough in my opinion.

Champion Female Sprinter - Mizdirection
Won more stakes than Groupie Doll and won in open company. If wise dan can get the support he does I'm sure the voters will be willing to overlook the turf thing for Mizdirection. Last year Groupie doll was a monster who won 3 G-1's and 5 Graded races. This year she won 1 G-1 and 2 Graded races. Whereas Mizdirection won just 2 graded stakes last year compared to 4 this year. I think the queen of the hill gets the crown in this division.

[Zenyatta]

I really do hope, Kennedy, that the voters remember Sahara Sky who in my estimation was the best of this year's sprinters. It's unfortunate that injury prevented him from moving forward past the Met Mile, but with any luck we'll see him again next year.

Champion Female Sprinter - a well-deserved Mizdirection, hooves down. She beat boys and her only glitch was on a bog at a distance that may not have been to her liking.

As far as Champion Older Male, I just don't see Mucho Macho Man as having had a consistent enough campaign (though his last 2 races were good). The issue I have with GOD is his not having beaten the caliber of horses MMM has.

[Kennedy]

As far as Champion Older Male, I just don't see Mucho Macho Man as having had a consistent enough campaign (though his last 2 races were good). The issue I have with GOD is his not having beaten the caliber of horses MMM has.

I think that in certain cases quantity should take precedence over quality.

[peeptoad]

Champion Three Year Old Male - Goldencents (Orb)
I'm projecting here based on a win in the Cigar Mile for Goldencents. If not I think the default choice should be Orb. He won more G-1 races than WTC and finished ahead of him in 3 out of 4 meetings.

As usual, Kennedy, I agree with virtually all of your predictions. The 3yo filly award is going to be contentious, but Beholder will probably walk with that one due to her run in the Distaff.
The 3yo male award is probably going to cause the most online arguments though. IMO it's really going to come down to the wire, with Goldencents going to the Cigar Mile and Will Take Charge possibly running in the Clark. Regardless of what I personally think I think the voters may side with WTC if he wins the Clark. It's unfortunate in a way that Orb was retired before the end of the year. He was considered for the Cigar Mile and a win there probably would have ensured that he got the 3yo award. The KDerby is normally weighted pretty heavily when considering 3yo honors, but this year there was little separation between the top contenders and Orb's last place finish in the JCGC tainted his chances.
I, personally, do not have  a problem with the award going to Goldencents providing he wins the Cigar Mile, but I do disagree with the owner's comments (in a DRF article) about his Dirt Mile win vs. WTC's 2nd in the Classic. 'Cents did go 0-5 between the SA Derby and the Dirt Mile, which is similar maybe to WTC's spotty record pre-Jim Dandy when he really seemed to turn the corner.  In any case, it's close between Goldencents, WTC, and Orb... will be interesting to see how the races that are left to run unfold.

[Man o Taz]

I have always like Mucho Macho Man. And I also have a lot of respect for Ms. Ritvo, but I try and keep my picks consistent from year to year.

To me, Mucho Macho Man looks a lot like Fort Larned last year. Actually, Fort Larned had many more wins last year, but just two G1 wins like Mucho Macho Man, and he did not win champion older male.

So, while he bested Game On Dude in one race, it was just one race - and while the competition in this one race was superior to the competition which Game On Dude may have faced in his other races all year, Game On Dude did put a six race schedule together where he was 3 for 4 in G1 races whereas as MMM was just 2 for 3. Plus, I do not believe that the caliber of Game On Dude's competition was that much worse than what Much Macho Man faced in his other efforts as some have suggested.

[The Tin Man]

I agree Taz ... it wasn't the level of competition that did GOD in on BC day ... it was the crowd. He's evidently not a big fan of traffic congestion. It wasn't a lack of talent.

[Charlie]

I agree Taz ... it wasn't the level of competition that did GOD in on BC day ... it was the crowd. He's evidently not a big fan of traffic congestion. It wasn't a lack of talent.

I agree! I'm glad I'm not the only person who see's it that way!

But I don't think the Classic should be so important that winning it alone can make you Horse of the Year/Older Male champion when the rest of your year wasn't so hot. So I don't think MMM (as much as I love him) deserves those.

I generally agree with everyone predictions, 3 yr old filly award will be a close I think.
If Game on Dude wins the Clark, do y'all think that will help forgive his clunker in the BBC & him get HOTY or is that definitely Wise Dan's now? ..I kinda think its going to Wise Dane, but just curious.

[FT-TBC-TRF]

If Game on Dude wins the Clark, do y'all think that will help forgive his clunker in the BBC & him get HOTY......

In a word:

NO.

(Unless he wins the Clark like Secretariat won the Belmont  )

[Man o Taz]

Its an interesting question regarding the Clark.

I would suggest that it depends on the field.

If Mucho Macho Man entered the Clark...and Will Take Charge and a couple of other top horses then I think that the race might have an impact on some voters with an impressive Game On Dude performance.

There is actually incentive for Mucho Macho Man to enter the race given he has only run 5 timers this year - and if he won the race he would make a much stronger case for champion older male and perhaps even HOTY. Then again, with two third place finishes his connections may be skeptical whether he can get it done over the Churchill surface but he has at least shown himself to be competitive over the track.