Flip the Jockeys and Chrome Wins

[peeptoad]

If the two meet again in the Pegasus then advantage Chrome at a shorter distance and possibly more speed biased strip at GP.

IMO Victor could have ridden differently and the result stands. Someone posted this over at Pace Advantage in a thread regarding Chrome and I agree: he is a "blast" runner. He is not a horse that can produce a sustained winning run... he's proven that time and time again and I think it was finally his downfall here (as it was in the 14 Belmont, and the race where Shared Belief blew by him in the stretch). Chrome's main strength is his early speed and his ability to cruise at a slightly faster pace than most are capable of. This allows him to set or lay just off the pace until the top of the stretch when he makes his patented short, quick burst of a run which, when timed properly, will usually get him to the wire first. He only appears to be able to produce a shorter burst that lasts 1/2 to 1 furlong tops, following this he generally coasts home.

I said it prior to the 2014 TC races, and again a few weeks ago prior to the BC: Chrome's late pace is not the strongest; it's better/stronger than it was in 2014, but still not stellar. IMO this is what got him beaten. It's not the ride, it's not the track... he just wasn't good enough to keep Arrogate (a freakishly talented horse that has much stronger late pace #s) at bay.

[Man o Taz]

If Chrome is a one run/burst horse, then why go to the lead with him like Victor did?

Why not conserve more for a late stretch run/burst?

And why not accelerate in the second turn like he has done in the past?

I do not know that he won the race, but my concern was only to echo Art Sherman's sentiments that he did not ride Chrome with confidence going into the second and seemed to be waiting for something to happen instead of trying to kick away.

Maybe a fresher Chrome can be more competitive at a shorter distance, but I frankly do not see it. 

[peeptoad]

If Chrome is a one run/burst horse, then why go to the lead with him like Victor did?

Why not conserve more for a late stretch run/burst?

And why not accelerate in the second turn like he has done in the past?

I do not know that he won the race, but my concern was only to echo Art Sherman's sentiments that he did not ride Chrome with confidence going into the second and seemed to be waiting for something to happen instead of trying to kick away.

Maybe a fresher Chrome can be more competitive at a shorter distance, but I frankly do not see it. 

Re: your why go to the lead question...my guess is because a horse on an easy lead is not going to expend more energy than a horse that is stalking another horse under pressure. Going to the lead early has worked for Chrome before and he was on the inside of his main foe in the BC. A quality early speed horse (e.g. Chrome) is almost always going to  have an easier time of it on an uncontested lead.

Beyond that the only comment I have left is that if Sherman was unhappy with Victor's ride (which I never heard until maybe the day after the race) then he should have given him instructions rather than "leave it up to the jock".

[Senator L]

there is an old adage  "good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't listen"  :chickendance:

[curtis]

Sherman didn't give Victor any instructions, reportedly, before the Pacific Classic and not a negative word was uttered when he wired the field.  I imagine that maybe Martin came to Art a little hot, perhaps, after the race Saturday and Victor ended up face down under the bus.  When you have a horse that can either go to the lead or stalk and still run an exceptional race you have quite a weapon.  I look at it like this.  If someone had told you right after the Pacific Classic that Chrome would go right to the front in the BC Classic and would end up beating Frosted, Melatonin, Hoppertunity, Effinex, etc. by double digit lengths you probably would have mortgaged your house to bet on him.  If some one told you a non-stakes winning three-year-old colt eligible for a NW3 would beat him you would have had them committed.  But then again if someone had told you in 1985 that the Loose Cannon owner of the USFL NewYork/New Jersey Generals would someday be US President.......... That's why they run the races.

[Man o Taz]

It is funny that you say that because I read somewhere where Perry Martin was overheard saying  to Victor after the Pacific Classic whether it was in the AM the next day or right after, "See Victor what happens when you follow instructions."

I have no problem with Chrome's performance. He ran well. My only issue is whether he could have performed better. I know hindsight is 20/20 but if Chrome is to have a chance at beating Arrogate, which I doubt, in the Pegasus Stakes the performance has to be dissected.

[peeptoad]

Well, analyzing and dissecting is a big part of what makes this sport so great imo... so here is some more to add to your dissection tray:

Final 5/16 Mile
Arrogate 7.5F 6.20 6.20 5.97 5.97 6.00 FIN
Chrome 7.5F 6.29 6.26 5.97 6.00 6.29 FIN

IMO Chrome could not have run any better... he ran a career top race (and the speed fig confirms this), but just wasn't quite enough to hold off Arrogate.

[Man o Taz]

So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?

[stark]

So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?

The IFgame is a slippery slope that leads analysis astray in my opinion.

You could just as easily say, the morning after, as we've all seen countless times in races across America, the free spirited horse that gets restrained early on, trying to rate to jockey's instructions, gets pissed off, spits the bit and runs last.

[curtis]

So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?

You're starting to sound as if you lead the league in Monday morning touchdown passes.

Were you this critical of Victor's Pacific Classic ride?  You've been going on for weeks about how Beholder belonged in the BC Classic and later the Pegasus and how Arrogate very well could be another Bellamy Road. Shouldn't Victor have saved something to fend off Beholder?  Instructions are fine as long as everyone else plays along, but once the gate opens and things aren't going accordingly, it's time to start dancing. Chrome doesn't have a favored tempo. He just got beat.

[curtis]

The IFgame is a slippery slope that leads analysis astray in my opinion.

You could just as easily say, the morning after, as we've all seen countless times in races across America, the free spirited horse that gets restrained early on, trying to rate to jockey's instructions, gets pissed off, spits the bit and runs last.

Exactly!  Go back and look at J.O. Tobin's early 1978 races, Hawkster's early 1990 races, Bertrando's 1993 Strub, etc. All brilliant speed horses, throttled down and beaten by fighting their jocks.

[Man o Taz]

You're starting to sound as if you lead the league in Monday morning touchdown passes.

Were you this critical of Victor's Pacific Classic ride?  You've been going on for weeks about how Beholder belonged in the BC Classic and later the Pegasus and how Arrogate very well could be another Bellamy Road. Shouldn't Victor have saved something to fend off Beholder?  Instructions are fine as long as everyone else plays along, but once the gate opens and things aren't going accordingly, it's time to start dancing. Chrome doesn't have a favored tempo. He just got beat.

I would have been perfectly happy with a ride like the one given in the Pacific Classic. That was not what we saw in the Classic.

And now it is looking like there may be no rematch with Juddmonte worried more about the Dubai World Cup and a long racing season if the Pegasus were to be chosen for him.

[peeptoad]

I would have been perfectly happy with a ride like the one given in the Pacific Classic. That was not what we saw in the Classic.

Because of the similarities between the two rides I have to ask, specifically what about the PC ride did youike that wasn't done in the Classic? 

[Man o Taz]

I like that Chrome increased his lead on the turn and kept moving forward as he had done in other races. 

I also like that while his early fractions were a little quicker, his later fractions milder and more consistent.

What's done is done...Chrome ran a good race. Hopefully Victor feels confident enough to be a bit more aggressive next time out.

[stark]

Really, the only difference between Chromes Pacific Classic and the Breeders Cup was that Arrogate only ran in the latter of the two.

At Del Mar it was 5+ lengths back to the pack at the finish, while in the BC he was 10+ clear of the field except for the new face.