Exaggerator Retired

[afleetphil]

But winning the Santa Anita, Preakness and Haskell all grade I's should get him 3 yr old horse of the year. Also coming in 2nd in the Kentucky Derby will help.

[curtis]

But winning the Santa Anita, Preakness and Haskell all grade I's should get him 3 yr old horse of the year. Also coming in 2nd in the Kentucky Derby will help.

If Arrogate or Nyquist were to win the BC Classic that horse will win the three-year-old Eclipse, in my opinion. I don't see it happening for the latter, but stranger things have happened. I think that Win-Star is getting out before Exaggerator's rep gets tarnished any further. It's highly unlikely he would get the necessary help from the weatherman on BC weekend.

[Man o Taz]

Nyquist is the most likely candidate.

I do not think either wins the Classic, and Nyquist is probably a win away from earning the award.

Send him to the Malibu post BC as a warm up for the Pegasus if Darley will let him run again post-BC loss.

Arrogate after the BC loss could try the Clark, but that would not be enough to win him top 3 year old and there are not enough other races left.

I would like Exaggerator to get it, but he is now the default winner if no other three year old wins another race...

With Outwork, Creator and Exaggerator retired there is really not another 3 year old who could make a run at it.

[curtis]

Nyquist is the most likely candidate.

I do not think either wins the Classic, and Nyquist is probably a win away from earning the award.

Send him to the Malibu post BC as a warm up for the Pegasus if Darley will let him run again post-BC loss.

Arrogate after the BC loss could try the Clark, but that would not be enough to win him top 3 year old and there are not enough other races left.

I would like Exaggerator to get it, but he is now the default winner if no other three year old wins another race...

With Outwork, Creator and Exaggerator retired there is really not another 3 year old who could make a run at it.

Outwork is the biggest argument as to why no Derby prep should be a Gr 1. He had no chance whatsoever. Creator only had a chance if you paired him with Gettysburg and gave them both part of the award.

The three-year-old Eclipse awards are unlike Horse of the Year which at times can become a result of racking up Gr 1's no matter what those Gr 1's are. This year is very similar to 2013. In the role of Orb, we have Nyquist, Palace Malice is being played by Exaggerator. Arrogate is reading for the part of Will Take Charge and has the creative staff buzzing. I'd be pretty surprised if you see Arrogate more than one time before the end of the year. If he can beat Chrome in the BC, that will be enough. Baffert can send Mor Spirit and perhaps the ever faithful and reliable Hopportunity to the Clark. A third or fourth in the BC Classic should set up the latter nicely to win what can be a soft Gr 1.

[Man o Taz]

No chance whatsoever?

He had one of the best pedigrees of any Derby entrant.

He had shown that he had a lot of talent running a sharp second to Tampa Bay specialist Destin where he came within a length of a track record at 8.5 furlongs.

His next outing, on an off track he delivers a good performance tracking a reasonable pace, and then closes to win the race moving forward further.

The Derby was a big step-up, but the horse had earned a place in the starting gate. The reality is that you often do not know until a race whether a horse is in over his head. Outwork again tracked the leaders and then faded.

But the notion that he had no chance I think it a bit of a stretch.

He was 7th choice on the morning line...that is not what a horse with no chance in the race usually gets. :-)

[curtis]

No chance whatsoever?

He had one of the best pedigrees of any Derby entrant.

He had shown that he had a lot of talent running a sharp second to Tampa Bay specialist Destin where he came within a length of a track record at 8.5 furlongs.

His next outing, on an off track he delivers a good performance tracking a reasonable pace, and then closes to win the race moving forward further.

The Derby was a big step-up, but the horse had earned a place in the starting gate. The reality is that you often do not know until a race whether a horse is in over his head. Outwork again tracked the leaders and then faded.

But the notion that he had no chance I think it a bit of a stretch.

He was 7th choice on the morning line...that is not what a horse with no chance in the race usually gets. :-)

I'll take Border Run's pedigree. They had similar chances.😉

I didn't like Outwork at all in the Derby--and said so at the time--but my argument is really about the Eclipse. Why do you think Outwork is retired?  It's dubious enough that he had to run as hard as he did to outwork Trojan Nation--who is well bred also, not that it does him much good. If Outwork came back and was trounced once or twice, that resume would just look worse and worse.  If the ASG had the ability to downgrade races retroactively, this year's Wood would be a Gr3 at best.  The only horses that have shown enough to be considered for the award are Arrogate, Exaggerator and Nyquist.

[Man o Taz]

Well, I think I mentioned the off track and the fact that he was close to a reasonable place in the middle of the track and didn't Trojan Nation get a Mine That Bird trip up the rail?

Heck, the horse was still developing in my mind, but who knows - maybe he just wasn't fast enough. I thought his being close to the stakes record in Tampa showed he could run, but maybe I am wrong. I just loved his breeding.

[curtis]

Well, I think I mentioned the off track and the fact that he was close to a reasonable place in the middle of the track and didn't Trojan Nation get a Mine That Bird trip up the rail?

Heck, the horse was still developing in my mind, but who knows - maybe he just wasn't fast enough. I thought his being close to the stakes record in Tampa showed he could run, but maybe I am wrong. I just loved his breeding.

Outwork is a nice enough horse who could have racked up a decent record with a different campaign, like what Baffert did with Cupid. Once Outwork got that Gr1 win though, his record needed to be protected. It's one thing to lose the Derby, getting drilled repeatedly in Gr1's after that would expose him.  The best thing that ever happened to Cupid was not winning one of those faux Derby prep Gr1's. Now if he's so inclined, Baffert can continue to develop Cupid and maybe he can step up to bigger things at four.

[Man o Taz]

Good points. I know Repole really wanted him in the Derby. And I thought he had a fair shot if he were as precocious as it seemed he might be.

I was really bothered when they retired him, but I always liked the horse and was glad I at least got to see him run once in person.

I look forward to visiting him at Winstar. Hopefully he shows more promise breeding than he did racing, though I thought he had a lot of promise racing. It just was left unfulfilled.