Breeders Cup DISTAFF

[stark]

Comments and odds by Brad Free DRF

Songbird   Jerry Hollendorfer   95-101-98   5-2   Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24   
Undefeated 3yo filly seeks win No. 11 Sat at PRX

Beholder   Richard Mandella   106-101-101   3-1   Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1   
Back home with f & m, SA record = 13 wins, 14 starts

Stellar Wind   John Sadler   102-99-98   5-1   Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1   
Fresh, lightly raced, upset Beholder two months ago

Cavorting   Kiaran McLaughlin   102-102-100   6-1   Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4   
More than one-turn specialist, won G1 route SAR

Curalina   Todd Pletcher   101-105-96   8-1   Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4   
Runs well fresh, will train to race ala Stop'maria 2015

Cathryn Sophia   John Servis   95-95-95   12-1   Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24   
Would be third to win Ky Oaks, Distaff same year

Forever Unbridled   Dallas Stewart   101-98-99   15-1   Spinster, KEE, 10/9 or BC Distaff   
Foiled three times by 'Chatterbox, twice by Cavorting

Tara's Tango   Jerry Hollendorfer   90-94-96   20-1   Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1   
G1 route winner could end up running in F&M Sprint

Land Over Sea   Doug O'Neill   68-75-91   30-1   Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24   
Returns to dirt Sat at PRX, faces nemisis Songbird

Corona Del Inca (ARG)   Guillermo Frankel   NA-NA-NA   30-1   Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4   
Argentina WAYI upset in May, now training at SA

Other contenders
Carina Mia
Genre
Lewis Bay
Makena
Paid Up Subscriber
Vale Dori

[Senator L]

I would take 5/2 on Songbird all day long

[curtis]

I would take 5/2 on Songbird all day long

I doubt if you'll end up getting that......or if you'd cash.😉

[Zenyatta]

Despite her losses this year, I'll still take Beholder.

[Man o Taz]

Despite her losses this year, I'll still take Beholder.

A wise move.

Beholder to me stands atop the Distaff Division.

Stellar Wind was impressive in the Clement Hirsch, but I liken that race to California Chrome facing Shared Belief in the San Antonio last year. Chrome was not fully cranked for the race, and neither was Beholder. Stellar Wind is a classy horse, but Beholder is still the defending distaff champion and I believe her form is still the best in the division. I like Stellar Wind, Songbird, and Cavorting a lot, but believe that if all were at their best they could not hold a candle to Beholder.

I hope that after Beholder disposes of the field in the Distaff and shows her best form of the year, that she will be pointed to the BC Classic where she rightfully belongs. You do not return for a 6 year old racing campaign to run in the Distaff. She was impressive in the Pacific Classic even in defeat. I think she is the 2nd best 10 furlong horse in training right now superior even to Arrogate. Chrome is on top, but he did not manage a time as sharp as hers last year in the PC or a margin of victory. At her best, she is still a force to be reckoned with.

[curtis]

A wise move.

Beholder to me stands atop the Distaff Division.

Stellar Wind was impressive in the Clement Hirsch, but I liken that race to California Chrome facing Shared Belief in the San Antonio last year. Chrome was not fully cranked for the race, and neither was Beholder. Stellar Wind is a classy horse, but Beholder is still the defending distaff champion and I believe her form is still the best in the division. I like Stellar Wind, Songbird, and Cavorting a lot, but believe that if all were at their best they could not hold a candle to Beholder.

I hope that after Beholder disposes of the field in the Distaff and shows her best form of the year, that she will be pointed to the BC Classic where she rightfully belongs. You do not return for a 6 year old racing campaign to run in the Distaff. She was impressive in the Pacific Classic even in defeat. I think she is the 2nd best 10 furlong horse in training right now superior even to Arrogate. Chrome is on top, but he did not manage a time as sharp as hers last year in the PC or a margin of victory. At her best, she is still a force to be reckoned with.

Stellar Wind is a really nice filly.  Yes the Clement Hirsch was her Del Mar goal but a less than completely fit Beholder has not just won graded races before but won them emphatically.  I warn you, don't dismiss Stellar Wind.  The San Antonio was not the goal for either Shared Belief or Chrome last year.  I think the best horse won.  I think he always was the best horse, Shared Belief just didn't get enough of a chance to win the right kind of races to prove it and be recognized for it at three.

I assume you mean the Zenyatta.  He's forgotten more than I'll ever know but if Mandella plans on running Beholder in both the Distaff and the Classic, I'll have to have a little sit down with him.   I think she'll go in the Distaff when all said and done unless there are a slew of key declarations.  Beholder is not as good as Chrome--at least this year's version of each.  The race certainly didn't diminish her in my eyes.  I rank her very high--most likely top 5--of all mares I've seen.  The final times of two races run a year apart and the victory margin really don't have as much relevance as you are giving them.  Final times are a product of the way the track is playing, the pace, the competition, etc.

[Senator L]

I doubt if you'll end up getting that......or if you'd cash.😉

Hopefully they both make it there healthy and the race will be on 

[stark]

So...... on his early odds board Brad Free had it listed like this....
Songbird 5/2
Beholder 3/1
Stellar Wind 5/1

At this point I think you deserve a gold star if you can just identify who the public will make the betting favorite, what say you?

[afleetphil]

I'd say those odds are right on. It's going to be a hell of a race. I hope Songbird wins. And if she does she'll be 12 for 12 entering into Personal Ensign territory of all time great fillies and mares.

[curtis]

So...... on his early odds board Brad Free had it listed like this....
Songbird 5/2
Beholder 3/1
Stellar Wind 5/1

At this point I think you deserve a gold star if you can just identify who the public will make the betting favorite, what say you?

Brad is probably right because even though there are many that should, I'm not sure people are understanding what a class hike Songbird is in for.  She should take any excuses away from Beholder as Songbird will provide the target that Beholder has been lacking the last two races.  In essence, I hope Free is a little conservative and that Songbird will go down to the neighborhood of 9/5.

[Man o Taz]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.

Stellar Wind and Beholder are heads and tails above the rest including Songbird.

Beholder has not lost a step, she just has not gotten the race set up she needs. She bested Stellar Wind getting the 2 post in the Vanity. Next out, she is on the rail with the 1 post and loses by half a length, she draws the rail again with SW outside and the same result. She did not want the lead, but no one else took it. I think it could be a different result if she can draw outside.

This does not mean that Songbird cannot win. But it does mean that she will need to bring her A-game to do it.

I agree Brad is right she will be the favorite, but I like your morning line odds better. The public will make the undefeated horse the favorite whether that makes sense or not. They will see Beholder and Stellar Wind as older horses and see that as a bad thing when in my book it shows that they have been fighting in these tough battles all year, whereas Songbird is just joining the fray. Imagine being able to get 5/2 on Beholder at post-time. 

[afleetphil]

Taz,

But my gut tells me Songbird is really special.

[Dusty]

Songbird - wins - IMHO

[Senator L]

SONGBIRD
I'll have to use a sick day, I don't want to miss this one  :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

I'll have to use a sick day, I don't want to miss this one  :chickendance:

Ditto. Well, vacation day probably...