2016 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

I think Nyquist may get another shot in the Malibu and if that goes well the Pegasus could still be a possibility. This is just my own musing here. No foundation for it. But if this is a minor injury, they still want to make the case for champion three year old. Being retired does not get you there. A Malibu win was not enough for Shared Belief, but it may have been had he won the Kentucky Derby like Nyquist did. I think if he can heel up they run him. Likely what they are waiting for is to see what Arrogate does. If he were to win the Classic, champion three year old would likely be gone, but if not they may believe they still have a chance to win the award. Champion 2 year old and 3 year old and if he wins the Malibu no reason the Pegasus is not possible.

I think Darley is saying as long as he keeps winning he can keep running. So if he won the BC he likely would have been pointed to the Pegasus.

The good thing about this plan is that 7-9 furlongs should be right in his wheelhouse.

[stark]

Press release just went out announcing officially what was expected, Nyquist retired to Darley. 2yo champ, Derby winner, by Uncle Mo.

$40K

[peeptoad]

Here's the Bloodhorse link: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216274/derby-winner-nyquist-retired


...not sure if Exaggerator is officially retired yet, but it's a sad day when the 3 TC race winners can't even make it to the end of the calendar year... though it's the humans doing the retiring and not the horses, exactly.

[CA_Chrome]

See the California Chrome thread for a link to a video of Chrome's gallop today. Amazing.

[stark]

1 Effinex James A. Jerkens Flavien Prat 15-1
2 Frosted Kiaran P. McLaughlin Joel Rosario 5-1
3 Keen Ice Todd A. Pletcher Javier Castellano 20-1
4 California Chrome Art Sherman Victor Espinoza 1-1
5 Win the Space George Papaprodromou Gary Stevens 30-1
6 Melatonin David E. Hofmans Joe Talamo 12-1
7 War Story Mario Serey Jr. Scott Speith 30-1
8 Shaman Ghost James A. Jerkens Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1
9 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert John Velazquez 15-1
10 Arrogate Bob Baffert Mike Smith 5-2

[stark]

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  4h4 hours ago
Want to have a measuring stick of how a horse should gallop look at California Chrome today

Ed DeRosa ‏@EJXD2  3h3 hours ago Hebron, KY
Hated California Chrome's gallop.

[Man o Taz]

So is Arrogate the odd horse out with a far outside post position?

[stark]

So is Arrogate the odd horse out with a far outside post position?

I'm a firm believer that post position draws may be important in the Juvenile races, but seasoned champions can/should win from anywhere.
I doubt that Mike Smith would change his vantage point with anybody given the opportunity, all systems go!

Are their post position biases, sure, but the great ones prevail, and I need at least 10-1 to bet a rail horse coming down the hillside

[CA_Chrome]

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  4h4 hours ago
Want to have a measuring stick of how a horse should gallop look at California Chrome today

Ed DeRosa ‏@EJXD2  3h3 hours ago Hebron, KY
Hated California Chrome's gallop.

Lol...$5.00 and an opinion will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. For those who want to see for themselves, here's a link to the video of Chrome's gallop today: http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcclassic/california-chrome-galloped-at-santa-anita-park-on-november-1st-2016-for-the-breeders-cup-classic/

The only thing I'll say is that Dihigi sometimes has to work hard to keep Chrome from going too fast, and he will sometimes pull a little too sharply on the bit causing Chrome to kind of hop. I don't like that, because I fear it could cause an injury. But this is nothing new for Chrome and Dihigi. If it doesn't bother Art, who am I to question how Dihigi gallops Chrome. The horse is undefeated so far this year and Dihigi has worked him almost every morning all year long. But I would truly enjoy knowing what others here think about this gallop.

Speaking of Art, here's a wonderful Twin Spires interview with him: https://www.facebook.com/topic/California-Chrome/1692849160948428

[stark]

It's been a strange year already, and we all know that anything can happen on raceday, why not one of the most profitable handicapping angles in the past 20 years hitting on Saturday, THE OTHER BAFFERT!?!?

http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-breeders-cup-notes-20161101-story.html

[peeptoad]

It's been a strange year already, and we all know that anything can happen on raceday, why not one of the most profitable handicapping angles in the past 20 years hitting on Saturday, THE OTHER BAFFERT!?!?

http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-breeders-cup-notes-20161101-story.html

I'm way ahead of you, stark... Hopper is my favorite horse running in the BC. I'm definitely betting him!

[Man o Taz]

I'm a firm believer that post position draws may be important in the Juvenile races, but seasoned champions can/should win from anywhere.
I doubt that Mike Smith would change his vantage point with anybody given the opportunity, all systems go!

Are their post position biases, sure, but the great ones prevail, and I need at least 10-1 to bet a rail horse coming down the hillside

Is Arrogate a seasoned champion now?

I guess we will find out.

[peeptoad]

Is Arrogate a seasoned champion now?

I guess we will find out.

Honestly,  just looking at his form on paper he's the exact type of horse I normally bet against.  But that last race was just a phenom. He's not my top pick but I think you have to hedge and  use him if you bet.

[Man o Taz]

I agree. You cannot know. The combination of his talent, trainer and jockey have to give pause to anyone else in the race. The post position may not have been ideal, but he has shown himself to be mature and able to win off the pace so it really should not be a problem.

I actually think it could work to his advantage if Melatonin and Chrome get into a duel up front and he can just skate home.

I think California Chrome's biggest liability is his jockey. I think Victor can sometimes be overconfident like he was in the Travers with American Pharoah. Chrome should stalk. I think his strongest races have come in that position, though his Pacific Classic was quite impressive. Santa Anita is not Del Mar, though, and I think while the competition was strong in that race he likes the Del Mar surface a bit better than Santa Anita and here the competition can come in waves. Victor cannot empty the tank too early or this will be the Belmont Stakes all over again.

[peeptoad]

I posted some handicapping thoughts in Kennedy's thread elsewhere, which I will relay in the race threads here. Take them at your own peril. 

Chrome or go home? Not quite, though he is probably the single most likely winner over the two days. Arrogate is the question mark and potential fly in the ointment for him. On price throw a dart because they will both take a lot of money. My strategy here will be to box 3-4 for the exotics and then bet Hoppertunity across the board. I am a fan of Hopper so some of that is sentimental $, but more objectively: he should get ample pace to close into, is coming off a win (finally) going into this, and of the SoCal horses running here, I think he will appreciate the changes made to the dirt course more than anyone else. Deeper, softer, slightly slower times and appears to be a bit kinder to off the pace types? That sounds like Hoppertunity to me. Otherwise most likely: Chrome, Hopper, Arrogate (and one of Effinex, Frosted, or Melatonin) exacta box.