2016 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

Mor Spirit working 7F in 1:24.3 ain't no slouch of a workmate, watch the video!!!!
How strategic is this??
http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcworks/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-40-outside-of-mor-spirit-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-18th-2016/

I think he worked in company just in case. I think Baffert knows his best performance was on the lead and that is what they will shoot for. But depending upon post position just in case they do not get the lead he wants to be ready.

So we have a bigger field than I thought:
Arrogate
California Chrome
Effinex
Frosted
Hoppertunity
Melatonin
Nyquist
Shaman Ghost
War Story
Win The Space

And I still cannot believe that Gun Runner is under consideration for this race, but who knows.

[peeptoad]

I think the entry of Frosted could make Arrogate's task even more difficult...

How so?

[Man o Taz]

I think it depends if they both draw on the inside that may be the case, but it would likely be the same if Chrome and Arrogate drew on the inside as well.

[peeptoad]

Just read on Bloodhorse that Hard Aces will go in the Marathon...which I think is technically no longer a BC race/

[curtis]

Just read on Bloodhorse that Hard Aces will go in the Marathon...which I think is technically no longer a BC race/

Good placement. He'll have a shot in there.

[curtis]

How so?

Frosted will make it more difficult for everyone because he's a seriously talented animal.

I doubt seriously that Baffert is working Arrogate in company and bringing him from behind, just in case. I don't think you'll see Arrogate on the early lead unless no one wants it. Smith may use him a little early to get position, if he's drawn inside, but I would be pretty surprised if he's gunned for the lead. I think that Frosted will be on the lead with Melatonin in close pursuit. Chrome and Arrogate won't be far away but I see Melatonin doing a lot of the dirty work. This is as in depth as I can get without seeing who's in or the pp draw. Those factors can change a few things.

[peeptoad]

Yes, Frosted is talented.  I was wondering if there was something more specific that CA Chrome was referring to.

I do wonder how Frosted will be ridden because he really isn't a frontrunner.  His better races, Whitney aside,  he has come from off the pace a bit.  Rosario might take it to them ala Santana in last year's Travers, but imo that will see Frosted beaten more soundly than if he drops back off a quick early pace. It's just speculation.  We'll see

[curtis]

Yes, Frosted is talented.  I was wondering if there was something more specific that CA Chrome was referring to.

I do wonder how Frosted will be ridden because he really isn't a frontrunner.  His better races, Whitney aside,  he has come from off the pace a bit.  Rosario might take it to them ala Santana in last year's Travers, but imo that will see Frosted beaten more soundly than if he drops back off a quick early pace. It's just speculation.  We'll see

The true front runner is Melatonin. I don't see Frosted passing Gr1 horses in the stretch at 10f so that's why I have a hunch he'll be put on the lead--not at all costs--but if the pace is reasonable and I think it will be closer to that than really hot.

[CA_Chrome]

How so?

Sorry for the delayed response. I can't get on the internet until getting home from work. In response, I was thinking that Frosted is another accomplished older horse who is capable of a performance like this: http://www.drf.com/news/frosted-rides-whitney-spot-breeders-cup-classic

I'm not knocking Arrogate at all. Just making the reasonable observation that he is very lightly raced, going against older horses, and will be facing two older horses who have exceptional turns of foot. This is why I believe the addition of Frosted makes Arrogate's task harder.

[stark]

ELMONT, N.Y. – Keen Ice, who upset Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers, is being considered for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 5, his connections said Friday.

[peeptoad]

Sorry for the delayed response. I can't get on the internet until getting home from work. In response, I was thinking that Frosted is another accomplished older horse who is capable of a performance like this: http://www.drf.com/news/frosted-rides-whitney-spot-breeders-cup-classic

I'm not knocking Arrogate at all. Just making the reasonable observation that he is very lightly raced, going against older horses, and will be facing two older horses who have exceptional turns of foot. This is why I believe the addition of Frosted makes Arrogate's task harder.

I didn't think you were knocking Arrogate (or Frosted)... was just wondering exactly what you meant, is all. 
I agree Frosted's presence will strengthen the overall quality of the field; he does add depth. I will be a little surprised if Frosted is ridden the way he was ridden in the Whitney though. I agree with curtis that if the pace is moderate he will be closer, but if Rosario gives him the Whitney ride (or the 15 Travers ride) he will be left gasping in the stretch. With the exception of his maiden win and the Whitney he's been no closer than 4th or 5th early in all his other wins, and I would expect them to revert to that since it's resulted in most of his success.
And, of course, post will dictate some of this once they draw in.

[CA_Chrome]

California Chrome worked this morning at Los Alamitos. Official fractions from Los Al clocker Russ Hudak - :25 1/5, :48 3/5, and to the wire in 1:00 2/5. Chrome ran his final furlong in 11:80. Gallop out in 1:13. Excellent work in which he continued to accelerate throughout to the wire, then had a strong gallop out. He wore blinkers for the work according to Jay Privman of DRF.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW_0b_k9J_Y He looks magnificent.

[stark]

With all the well deserved kudos CHROME is getting in advance of the big day, he should open up at 1/5 on the board.

Good thing the BC isn't @ NYRA this year, might've been the first time ever for no show betting in the Classic

[Raven]

What are you basing this assertion on?

[curtis]

What are you basing this assertion on?

I won't speak for Stark, but Songbird ran twice at Saratoga with no show wagering either time.