2016 Breeders Cup Classic

[peeptoad]

Really nice article about Hoppertunity on DRF+ right now: http://www.drf.com/news/premium/breeders-cup-classic-hoppertunity-bafferts-overlooked-multimillionaire

I love this guy; he's probably my favorite horse in training right now. I hope he hits the board on Nov. 5.

[Senator L]

He should get a great set up. I think Chrome and Arrogate will go at it
right from the start

[stark]

You know I have heard nothing about Hard Aces as a possibility for this year's BC Classic. Last year, he had won a win and you're in so the fees were paid. Perhaps they do not want to ante up the entry fee.

Worked 49 'n change this morning.

[CA_Chrome]

Chrome worked a half in :48 flat this morning at Los Alamitos, with a gallop out to 5F in 1:01 flat. Chrome went the final furlong in a fast :11 2/5. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/215869/california-chrome-works-for-bc-at-los-al

[Man o Taz]

Worked 49 'n change this morning.

Thanks. Any word if he goes in the Classic or if he is pointing to a different race?

[stark]

Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman  44m44 minutes ago
Arrogate just now @santaanitapark with another strong work, 7f in 1:24.80 on Baffert watch preparing for BC Classic

Baffert on Arrogate: "He's a big, long-jumping thing, isn't he? He needs a full mile and a quarter."
Has two more works before BC Classic

[stark]

BC Classic: Frosted works six furlongs in 1:11 at Greentree, BC race decision "tomorrow," per McLaughlin

[stark]

Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman  44m44 minutes ago
Arrogate just now @santaanitapark with another strong work, 7f in 1:24.80 on Baffert watch preparing for BC Classic

Baffert on Arrogate: "He's a big, long-jumping thing, isn't he? He needs a full mile and a quarter."
Has two more works before BC Classic

Mor Spirit working 7F in 1:24.3 ain't no slouch of a workmate, watch the video!!!!
How strategic is this??
http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcworks/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-40-outside-of-mor-spirit-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-18th-2016/

[Senator L]

I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?

[stark]

I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?

There are a few certain horses in our lifetime where your confidence level goes way up as they turn for home, I'm thinkin ARROGATE is one of them!

If he's a half a length back or ten lengths off of it, he's got that look in his eye of a smart horse that screams "I know when the real racing starts" and Trevor Denman would have a field day.....he just jumped in at the quarter pole, lengthening his stride, they'd have to sprout wings etc.

EddieD would have been the perfect jock for him, up on the lead or closing with a rush, it's going to be exciting. I don't think he'll quit, HEART going 10F is a big handicapping factor that's sometimes tough to see for the number crunchers.

[CA_Chrome]

I'd just like to say that people have been looking for a horse to beat Chrome all year, but he's taken on all comers and won easily in every race except the San Diego Hcp. Chrome has won with his saddle slipped over his hips. He's won from the outside and inside; from a wide stalking position and on the lead. He's able to go 1:09 and change through six, accelerate at the head of the stretch, then win geared down. Chrome showed his guts and class in the San Diego and his heart in the Dubai World Cup. He's quick and handy. A smart handicapper would never underestimate him.

As for Arrogate, although he could be any kind, a smart handicapper would at least recognize that this colt is facing a far tougher challenge in the BCC than he's ever faced before in his short career.

[stark]

I'd just like to say that people have been looking for a horse to beat Chrome all year, but he's taken on all comers and won easily in every race except the San Diego Hcp. Chrome has won with his saddle slipped over his hips. He's won from the outside and inside; from a wide stalking position and on the lead. He's able to go 1:09 and change through six, accelerate at the head of the stretch, then win geared down. Chrome showed his guts and class in the San Diego and his heart in the Dubai World Cup. He's quick and handy. A smart handicapper would never underestimate him.

As for Arrogate, although he could be any kind, a smart handicapper would at least recognize that this colt is facing a far tougher challenge in the BCC than he's ever faced before in his short career.

Smart handicappers look at races differently.  There's the bridgejumper looking for the sure thing, a quick 5% return on his show investment, personally I don't think it's very wise.  Then there's the TVG P4 player who tries to piece together one winning P4 ticket while losing 95 bets at the same time, not my cup of tea either.  Then there's the smart handicapper who is looking for value on the toteboard.  While it's easy enough to pick out the best horse on paper, getting 3/5 odds, hoping for a $3.20 return for each $2 invested isn't very appealing to me.  Rather, the smart handicapper, in my opinion, looks for a horse that will provide value, maybe 5/1 odds, that has some upside potential in today's race.  In my opinion, and I'm not a smart handicapper, ARROGATE offers exactly that situation.  In fact, he might even drift up to 7 or 8 to one after today's announcement.  ANd, I learned a very long tine ago, the best horse doesn't always win!

Godolphin ‏@godolphin  1,h1 hour ago
#TeamGodolphin's #Frosted to clash with #CaliforniaChrome again as @BreedersCup Classic confirmed as next target

[stark]

Flavien Prat to ride Effinex

[peeptoad]

Was just about to post that... just saw on DRF. Effinex gets a good rider (not good enough to erase that terrible name though!)

edit: and rock on Frosted on going to the Classic, where he belongs...   

[CA_Chrome]

Smart handicappers look at races differently....

True, from the point of view of betting. I was thinking more about what Chrome and Arrogate each bring to the table. I think the entry of Frosted could make Arrogate's task even more difficult, while Chrome's handiness and quickness gives him an advantage a lot of other horses don't have. If they all stay sound and the race is run cleanly, the outcome is likely to be chalky even though any horse can win any race on any given day, assuming the horses in that "given" race are not in over their heads class wise.