2016 Breeders Cup

[stark]

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC PURSE RAISED TO $6 MILLION
AND LONGINES TURF RAISED TO $4 MILLION

http://www.breederscup.com/article/breeders-cup-classic-purse-raised-6-million-and-longines-turf-raised-4-million

[Man o Taz]

This would be my ideal field:

Beholder
California Chrome
Creator
Dortmund
Eagle
Effinex
Exaggerator
Firing Line
Frosted
Gun Runner
Hoppertunity
Lani
Mubtaahij
Nyquist

And with a couple of these, I know they have to earn their way back, but their being here means they would have.

I do think it will be heavier on older horses.

This leaves off a number of horses too:
Destin
Hard Aces
Imperative
International Star
Melatonin
Mohaymen
Outwork
Smooth Roller
Stanford
Swipe

So I think that the field will be a full one.

[Kennedy]

Breeders Cup Top 5

The value of lists and rankings can be somewhat dubious but personally I find them to be a great way to generate interest and excitement on a personal level and for me there is nothing better than the Breeders Cup. Not even the Derby and it's build up is as engaging. The Breeders Cup is my favorite event of the year and each year I like to kick off the road to the BC in June with my top 5 lists for each race.

I'll add Top 5's for Juveniles in September once they've actually put some races on the board. But for now this is how I see the BC races races at the moment.

If I have time I'll also toss in some thoughts that the top 5 were based on.

June

Classic
California Chrome
Beholder
Effinex
Frosted
Nyquist

Obviously my top 5 seems somewhat biased towards older horses and Californians. At this point I think that's how the race will shake down. It's not that easy or common for big horses from the east to come to SA and dominate the BC. In Chrome and Beholder we have two pretty solid specimens that may have some fitness concerns but they're both really classy and are superb at Santa Anita.

Effinex is I think the best all-arounder in the east. He's got good tactical speed and is really confirming his rapid his in class last year. He really is this good.

Frosted was a beast in the Met Mile but I've seen far too much of this horse to make him the Classic favorite. I think he'll be up and down continually and he's still not shown that he can go with Chrome.

Nyquist would be a banker in the Dirt Mile but I think his connections will have eyes for the Classic only and perhaps rightly so. On a fast track this horse is really dangerous and he showed in the Derby that he can attend a very quick pace and still get something out of the race. The water gets deeper with the older horses but if he can improve he should be a factor.

Turf
Flintshire
Postponed
Found
Highland Reel
Divisidero

You may note that this list is dominated by Europeans and former Europeans. That's just where we're at. Flintshire is a really good horse and while I do expect him to lose once or twice at odds on this year (because he often loses for no reason) he should dominate US turf racing this year.

The Europeans I have placed behind him are simply a collection of the best in Europe that I think might come over for the race. It's hard to ignore the fact that O'Brien wins this race on a regular basis and Highland Reel and Found should both be good candidates for him.

I have Divisidero on there as sort of the lone "true American". I think he was ridden far too close to the pace last time out and should do better making just one run. He's not totally sure to stay 12f well but I think that the distance on SA's turf and unique configuration actually plays well for horses with questionable stamina. He's got talent but he's likely need a setup.

Mile
Ironicus
Tepin
Ring Weekend
Tourist
What A View

It's really hard not to have Tepin at the top of my list. She is the queen right now and it'll take something special to beat her. My thought is simply this. She is doing some hard racing right now and it's not easy to keep that going all year. We'll see how she comes back from England.

The other factor here in my mind is that Ironicus is really good and has been hampered by injury in his career. Watch his last race and look how he was coming after Flintshire both before and after the trouble he had in midstretch. He's a serious horse who will love a good firm track and he's relentless in the stretch.

Ring Weekend is another top class horse among what I think is a bumper crop of miler talent in America at the moment. To run as well as he did off that long layoff in his last was really special. He would basically be competing for the same space as Tepin all the way around the track so it would be an interesting dynamic to see him face her. He's got a shot against anyone.

Tourist is a horse I've wanted in a race like the Mile for a long time but it seems like every time it comes around he has something standing in the way which prevents me from really getting on his wagon. I think he has some really good races in him but hasn't quite figured out how to run them every time.

What A View is the top local hope and there is nothing quite like a horse in form at their home track. He's not the same level of quality as the top 3 on my list but I think race shape and tactics on the day could work out for him.

Sprint
Runhappy
Lord Nelson
XY Jet
Unified
Wild Dude

Dirt Mile
Dortmund
Cat Burglar
Anchor Down
Upstart
Danzing Candy

Distaff
Songbird
Stellar Wind
Curalina
Carrumba
Ahh Chocolate

FM Turf
Sentiero Italia
Sea Calisi
Illuminant
Miss Temple City
Wekeela

FM Sprint
Taris
Cavorting
Carina Mia
Lightstream
Fantastic Style

Turf Sprint
Undrafted
Lady Shipman
Coastline
Ageless
Acapulco

[peeptoad]

Per Fabre: Usherette, winner of the Duke of Cambridge S (GII) is under consideration for the BC Mile. If pointed to that race she will ship to the States later in the year.

[Kennedy]

Per Fabre: Usherette, winner of the Duke of Cambridge S (GII) is under consideration for the BC Mile. If pointed to that race she will ship to the States later in the year.

Would be interesting to see her come.

[Zenyatta]

Breeders' Cup purses have been increased for 2 races:

Classic- from $5M to $6M
Turf - from $3M to $4M

To me, the Dirt Mile is a,very important race. If the purse had been increased by $1M or more on that race, you might see a higher caliber field. When one thinks of a race pivotal for future stallions, you think of the Met Mile, but never the BC Dirt Mile. A shame.

[BaroqueAgain1]

   The BC Dirt Mile is a relatively new race, even for the Breeders' Cup, which is a fairly recent addition to horse racing. The Met Mile has a long, storied history, so it's going to take a while for the Dirt Mile to come close to having the Met's prestige.
   ATM, I'm afraid many fans look at the Dirt Mile as the place where horses who aren't quite good enough to run in the Classic end up. That could change if the race starts attracting really good horses. Liam's Map's impressive win last year was a good step in the right direction....although it did lead to a lot of whining that 'see, he should have run in the Classic' from some folks. 

[Zenyatta]

   The BC Dirt Mile is a relatively new race, even for the Breeders' Cup, which is a fairly recent addition to horse racing. The Met Mile has a long, storied history, so it's going to take a while for the Dirt Mile to come close to having the Met's prestige.
   ATM, I'm afraid many fans look at the Dirt Mile as the place where horses who aren't quite good enough to run in the Classic end up. That could change if the race starts attracting really good horses. Liam's Map's impressive win last year was a good step in the right direction....although it did lead to a lot of whining that 'see, he should have run in the Classic' from some folks. 

I think they realized that he was distanc-llimited, and there's certainly no shame in that. Horses should be categorized as sprinters, middle distance, classic and stayers. We've seen many talented middle distance horses in the past, and outside of these 2 races, there is limited opportunity - Salvatore Mile, Longacres Mile, Santana Mile (ungraded), and what else?

Tapizar, who won the Dirt Mile, is having a,good start at stud; let's hope that continues, and we'll see more G1 winners in the Dirt Mile. It's actually one of the races I most look forward to during the BC.

[BaroqueAgain1]

I must be showing my love of overseas racing, because I categorize horses as sprinter (7 furlongs and below), miler, middle distance (9 to maybe 14 furlongs..it's sort of a grey area between middle and stayer) and stayer (anything above 14 furlongs).

[Zenyatta]

I must be showing my love of overseas racing, because I categorize horses as sprinter (7 furlongs and below), miler, middle distance (9 to maybe 14 furlongs..it's sort of a grey area between middle and stayer) and stayer (anything above 14 furlongs).

I was talking about dirt not turf. I wouldn't classify a dirt horse as a miler because he/she would have only a handful of racing opportunities during the year.

[Diver52]

There are quite a few graded stakes at 1  1/16 miles, but not Grade 1 IIRC.