Breeders Cup Observations...

[Kennedy]

I always find it interesting to look at the BC as a whole and group the horses by odds. To me there are 4 logical groups.

1. Favorites
2. non-faves who are less than 10/1
3. Those who are between 10/1 and 20/1
4. 20/1 plus

Overall the Breeders' Cup was a bit of a stingy one with 157 starters returning $224.60 or in other words a loss of -$89.40 (-28.5%). There have been 12 years in the 30 Breeders' Cups where a flat bet on every BC starter would have yielded a profit but this was the 10th "stingiest" renewal of the BC in terms of the prices with the average winner paying $16.04.

Favorites: 14-5-2-1 $31.00 P/L = +$3.00 (+10.7%)
2/1-9.90/1: 56-6-9-8 $77.00 P/L = -$35.00 (-31.3%)
10/1-19.90/1: 42-2-4-3 $50.00 P/L = -$34.00 (-40.5%)
20/1+: 43-1-0-2 $66.60 P/L = -$19.40 (-22.6%)

Favorites were the only group showing a profit and amazingly just 3 horses managed to hit the frame at 20/1+. That's extremely low for a Breeders' Cup.

[The Tin Man]

Yep ... that's why my winning day was Friday .... because I was in longshot mode. With so many low odd horses coming in, it was Better Bet in the Cali Juvy who saved my butt. The BC low odd winners didn't help my cause.

Only other winners I hit were London Bridge, So Big Is Better and Mucho Macho Man ... since I'd decided to bypass the favorites for the weekend.