This is a very special year for the BC Classic because not only do we have a Triple Crown winner potentially running in the race, but we also have a mare in Pacific Classic winner Beholder targeting it.
Possible entries include:
American Pharoah
Beholder
Effinex
Frosted
Gleneagles
Honor Code
Keen Ice
Liam's Map
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
I do find it interesting at this point that only 4 3 year olds are currently considering the race and one of them, Gleneagles, is from across the pond.
Last year, 7 of the 13 entries were 3 year olds. In 2013, there were only 4 3 year olds and they took 2nd and 3rd. In 2012, I think there were only 3.
10 horses with likely defections means it could be a pretty small field for the BC Classic. 11 to 14 horses ran in the race the last 5 years...so that would be a small field.
Nice lineup for the Classic. No Texas Red or Upstart.
Well, I did not think that they would be heading there unless something happens. I think what they head to depends upon how they do in their next start. If Texas Red enters the Awesome Again and finishes in the top 3 with a strong finish I think he enters. If not, probably Dirt Mile. If Upstart wins or finishes well in the Penn Derby he could go too, but I am thinking they will probably point him to the dirt mile and Cigar Mile.
He had 3 tough races earlier this year - took 3 months off and then has had 2 tough races coming back. I think he could have 3 more races.
So much for that thinking...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94485/texas-red-sidelined-with-bone-bruise
Texas Red is out. Due to injury.
Frosted looked good in winning the Penn Derby yesterday. I think Frosted is really improving from his Travers to the Penn Derby. Could be a factor in The Classic.
I agree.
Some are dismissing him as no better than the 5th choice in the BC Classic behind American Pharoah, Honor Code, Beholder, and Liam's Map.
Tonalist is in the same boat. The irony is one is proven at 10 furlongs, and one is not. I think both can still get the distance.
The idea that you have such quality getting 5th and 6th choice in the race shows just how strong a field it is.
I would watch out for Effinex too. His Suburban was strong and he may be coming into the race with a JCGC win.
I love Frosted, but he really should be about the 5th choice in the Classic if all the potential contenders make the race. He needs to improve to beat AP, let alone Beholder and Co. I agree on him looking good and I expect a nice 4yo campaign from him regardless of the BC. Anyway if he's decent odds that more bang for your two bucks. ;)
Anyone hear anything on Smooth Roller? I assume he goes to the Classic, but that's a tall order for your 5th career start, esp. with the TC winner, the best mare since Zenyatta, one of the best dead closers we've seen for awhile, and the freak speed of Liam in there. Going to be a heckuva race on Halloween.
It is a big ask. His 2nd stakes race the BC Classic.
But is that any different from a horse making his 5th start in the Kentucky Derby like Verrazano did? Granted Verrazano did not do too well, but some of the 3 year olds have.
I see it as very similar to that. It depends on his connections. If he is a precocious horse then let him try it. If not, hopefully there will be next year for him.
Granted, this field appears to be one of the strongest BC Classic fields ever, especially if Gleneagles contests the race, but I think he can handle it if his connections feel he is up to it just so its the trainer making most of the decision. I really like his breeding a lot. Hard Spun by Danzig on the top and Catch The Moment by Unbridled on the bottom.
Seems like they are going...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Smooth_Roller_Unraced_Maiden_to_the_2015_Breeders_Cup_Classic_123
New possible field...
American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird
Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic
Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector
Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat
Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat
Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister
Liam's Map - Unbridled's Song and Miss Macy Sue by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner by Mr. Prospector
Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector
Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot
Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer
We can see a definite trend here:
A.P. Indy to Bold Ruler to Nasrullah
Storm Cat to Northern Dancer
Mr. Prospector to Native Dancer
The two outliers are Ribot and Nearctic
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 29, 2015, 09:05:38 AM
It is a big ask. His 2nd stakes race the BC Classic.
But is that any different from a horse making his 5th start in the Kentucky Derby like Verrazano did? Granted Verrazano did not do too well, but some of the 3 year olds have.
There is a world of difference between the Derby and the Classic, imo. Smooth Roller's best option for the BC would be to target the Dirt Mile. He has plenty of time ahead to season and prepare himself for next year's Classic. He
would make for an interesting addition to that field, but absolutely nothing of BC note finished behind him on Saturday (and that's coming from a Hoppertunity fan) and I think a win is way beyond his current ability.
eta: also, Smooth Roller is a 4yo , not 3yo.
Sorry if I misspoke and said he was 3.
I meant as an older horse who just started this year, he has run well.
He hit a 111 BSF in his first stakes race. That is up there with the best of the best this year.
I cannot fault the connections for thinking big with him because as we have seen all too often, many times horses do not come back the following season with the same ability.
And I agree there is a difference in ability between the Derby and the BC Classic, but the Classic at least limits field size whereas the Derby does not.
We shall see how he ships and trains at Keeneland. I know the field was not the greatest, but the speed figure shows he is a contender.
The main difference between the Derby and the BCC regarding Smooth Roller's experience is in the Derby most horses come in with similar resumes. Smooth Roller would be giving up a lot of seasoning. The Awesome Again, which was actually his second stake start--albeit first graded, looked better then it was. He sat just off of a slow pace set by Bayern a horse who has no fight left and just caved as soon as he was challenged. With no pace on, no one really closed and a classic grinder--who evidently is fond of quirky tracks ;)--Hopportunity, clip-clopped into second. The first stake start should also be considered. Smooth Roller stumbled at the start and finished fourth behind pretty ordinary horses. He might be a BC Classic horse next year but I think the Dirt Mile makes a lot more sense or him this year. For Smooth Roller, in my opinion, to have a shot to win the Classic, he'd need to be a horse for the ages.
Quote from: curtis on September 29, 2015, 10:16:28 PM
For Smooth Roller, in my opinion, to have a shot to win the Classic, he'd need to be a horse for the ages.
I agree. If he does manage to win the classic we are in for an exciting year next year. Heck, even if he competitively hits the board he is adding some serious depth to the SoCal ranks for the Strub series (assuming that's still actually a series)
Quote from: peeptoad on September 30, 2015, 03:49:25 AM
I agree. If he does manage to win the classic we are in for an exciting year next year. Heck, even if he competitively hits the board he is adding some serious depth to the SoCal ranks for the Strub series (assuming that's still actually a series)
The Strub series doesn't exist any longer. Once upon a time, it consisted of the Malibu, San Fernando and Strub Stakes, progressing from 7-9-10f. The latter two races were shortened to 8.5 and 9f respectively. In it's last running, I believe the Strub--originally the biggest of the three races and the only Gr1, when grading began--was run at 8.5f. The Strub was jettisoned so that the purse money could be combined with that of the San Antonio to make it a more attractive race. The Strub Series was for four, or about to turn four-year-olds, anyway. If the connections are wise and go the Dirt Mile route with Smooth Roller, he should be a factor in the San Antonio-Big Cap if that's where they decide to go. I also think that the race Saturday fell into his lap and I wouldn't completely trust that number.
Yes, that's right . I had forgotten the Malibu was part of that series... SR wouldn't qualify anyway.
Agree on not trusting the AA fig completely.
The more people throw out Smooth Roller the more I like him :chickendance:0
I'm thinking I'll have to go 6 deep in the classic for pick4's and pick 6's
Well, I think Smooth Roller is headed to the Classic, like it or not.
I agree it may be a stretch for him in that he would be 6th or 7th choice, but I believe his connections see a top challenger coming back into form in Shared Belief which could change everything in SoCal...so they will bite at the apple while they can. The most important issue is consistency. This has been the real problem with a lot of older horses this year particularly in California - they throw in a brilliant race and then a clunker. Honor Code has been the only consistent older horse and he has one route race.
I don't know about that - American Pharoah, Beholder,
Liams Map all run lights out all the time imo
p.s. smooth roller too
Quote from: Senator L on September 30, 2015, 03:06:14 PM
The more people throw out Smooth Roller the more I like him :chickendance:0
I'm thinking I'll have to go 6 deep in the classic for pick4's and pick 6's
Get your chickens ready, folks!! :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance:
I don't begrudge Smooth Roller's connections at all for wanting to go cLassic. May as well strike when you have a horse (they get injured often enough), but he's a horse I likely won't be touching.
Quote from: Senator L on October 01, 2015, 08:18:07 AM
I don't know about that - American Pharoah, Beholder,
Liams Map all run lights out all the time imo
p.s. smooth roller too
I was talking older horses and particularly in Cali - and there has not been a consistent graded stakes winning horse all year since Shared Belief left other than Catch A Flight.
Other than Honor Code who has won 3 graded stakes, there has not been another multiple route graded stakes winner in the older horse ranks, has there?
Granted, Liam's Map has performed well in his two graded stakes efforts, but he is a relatively new commodity.
The other horses - Race Day, Noble Bird, etc. have not done much. But I should also mention Tonalist. He is a horse that has been very consistent. He has just not been able to win since his effort in the Westchester.
What happened to Catch a Flight anyway? Is he on hiatus or training up to the BC?
Nevermind, just read that he was injured (condylar) and is getting a few months off. The Dirt Mile will be weaker for his absence.
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 01, 2015, 06:07:34 AM
Well, I think Smooth Roller is headed to the Classic, like it or not.
I agree it may be a stretch for him in that he would be 6th or 7th choice, but I believe his connections see a top challenger coming back into form in Shared Belief which could change everything in SoCal...so they will bite at the apple while they can. The most important issue is consistency. This has been the real problem with a lot of older horses this year particularly in California - they throw in a brilliant race and then a clunker. Honor Code has been the only consistent older horse and he has one route race.
I'm sure Victor Garcia isn't reading this forum to see what I or anyone else thinks he should do with his horse, nor should he. To me, throwing Smooth Roller into the Classic is: How to Ruin a Potentially Good Horse 101. If he were mine he'd go in the Dirt Mile but he isn't. Since Garcia doesn't tell me what to do with my horses, he can do as he sees fit with his. As for Shared Belief, he's been off since April with a broken bone and hasn't even recorded a work yet. I wouldn't worry about him until he gives me something to worry about. I hope he comes back better than ever but that's always a crapshoot.
I think you're being a little hard on the California based older horses. Hoppertunity has been consistent, he's just limited. Catch A Flight has been consistent, but he really is most effective from 8-9f and now unfortunately he's going to be out for awhile. Hard Aces has run consistent races. The Gold Cup--even though it was glacier like down the stretch--was tough on him and he bounced in the Pacific Classic. He didn't really run terrible on Saturday. Because of the slow pace they had to move him earlier than he would like and that did him in in the stretch. The two most brilliant performers out here this year have been Shared Belief and Beholder. California Chrome ran well the one time he ran here. The others just aren't in that league when those horses are right.
I think you and peeptoad make excellent points regarding Smooth Roller.
It is just so hard to pass up this once in a lifetime chance given how quickly fate can change in horse racing.
You are right. Shared Belief may not come back the same, but I bet this has to be in the back of Garcia's mind. SB is a world beater. If he comes back a shadow of himself he could still be very good. If he comes back back to his top form or better then others have no chance. It is true he has not worked yet, but he is galloping and he is targeting a December return. We know schedules can be pushed back all the time, but I am only saying it could be a valid consideration.
You may be right. The California horses have been more consistent than I have said, but none have won multiple stakes races other than Catch A Flight. They may finish in the money or on the board most times, but cannot get up for that win. And as you note they are not the strongest contingent and, other than Beholder and Shared Belief, have not been running the strongest speed figures. I am the first to try and defend the California contingent, but I just do not see them as very strong this year. Who knows? Maybe Hoppertunity will reprise his win in the Clark.
I was not surprised with Honor Code's performance, but was disappointed slightly. The track was very sticky. He did not like it and performed that way. Soft fractions up front did not help, but I do not think the weight or the pace were what got him beat. It was a combination of the track and his attitude. He did not seem at his best in the paddock and beforehand.
Kudos to Tonalist who many suggested would move up with a sloppy track which was how he won the Peter Pan.
I do not think the weekend results really changed anything for the BC Classic field though Wicked Strong put in one of his best performances of the year:
American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird
Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic
Coach Inge - Big Brown by Boundary by Danzig and Touch Too Much by Holy Bull by Great Above by Minnesota Mac (another John Nerud)
Constitution - Tapit and Baffled by Distorted Humor by Forty Niner
Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector
Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat
Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat
Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister
Liam's Map - Unbridled's Song and Miss Macy Sue by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner by Mr. Prospector
Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector
Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot
Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer
I do find it very interesting that potentially 4 horses are training up to the Classic. Dale Romans had hinted at entering Keen Ice in the JCGC, but probably reconsidered it with the weather the way it was. Gleneagles also may run in the Champion Stakes I think...
Do you know that Jimmy Jerkens finishing back-to-back is becoming a bit of a routine since last year's Travers Stakes?
2014 Travers - 1st V.E. Day, 2nd Wicked Strong
2015 Whitney Stakes - 4th Wicked Strong, 5th V.E. Day
2015 Woodward Stakes - 3rd Wicked Strong, 4th Effinex
2015 Jockey Club Gold Cup - 2nd Wicked Strong, 3rd Effinex
The Jerkens barn is doing incredible work.
http://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/article/Travers-winner-still-needs-a-jockey-for-Breeders-6554939.php
I think more than any other horse, Honor Code needs Castellano. Liam's Map has done well without him. Keen Ice can get Desormeaux. But Honor Code, with his headstrong temperament, needs him.
http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/10/05/questions-facing-bc-classic-horses.aspx
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Beholder_seeks_to_become_2nd_female_winner_123
http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-is-next-for-Tonalist-Honor-6548461.php
At this point in time I'll go with
1./ American Pharoah
2./ Tonalist
3./ Keen Ice
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 07, 2015, 06:46:20 AM
http://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/article/Travers-winner-still-needs-a-jockey-for-Breeders-6554939.php
I think more than any other horse, Honor Code needs Castellano. Liam's Map has done well without him. Keen Ice can get Desormeaux. But Honor Code, with his headstrong temperament, needs him.
http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/10/05/questions-facing-bc-classic-horses.aspx
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Beholder_seeks_to_become_2nd_female_winner_123
http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-is-next-for-Tonalist-Honor-6548461.php
Castellano has to consider whether giving up the mount on Keen Ice--a horse who will likely run next year--is prudent. Honor Code is likely to be done after the BC. I don't like either horse's chances in the Classic but they do have some chance so it's a bit of a dilemma for him. Looking at the big picture, I'd stick with Keen Ice. Liam's Map is going in the Dirt Mile-ish so in that case, the problem is solved.
I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans
Well, there goes Honor Code's pace maker...
Quote from: Senator L on October 07, 2015, 05:32:55 PM
I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans
Is Liam's Map retiring after this year?
I could see Javier going off Pletcher for McGaughey. Romans does race on the East coast, but McGaughey runs at the tracks where Javier is based. It will be interesting to see where he goes, but I think he will stay on Honor Code.
In fact, he was quoted post Kelso saying something like, "I can't wait for the mile and a quarter with him."
So we shall see.
Quote from: peeptoad on October 08, 2015, 02:45:42 AM
Well, there goes Honor Code's pace maker...
True, though Bayern made the pace with pretty slow numbers in the BC Classic last year so Liam's Map may have just tried to duplicate that performance.
Pace may come from a combination of American Pharoah, Beholder, Smooth Roller, and Wicked Strong.
We shall see. It will be interesting to see if Coach Inge is entered. He is nominated.
Quote from: Senator L on October 07, 2015, 05:32:55 PM
I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans
He wouldn't be, Pletcher solved the problem for him.
Wicked Strong pointing to the Dirt Mile.
http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-dirt-mile
It will be interesting to see if Coach Inge or Constitution make the gate.
Also, Noble Bird and Hard Aces have won Win and You're In races for the Classic, but their recent form has not been great. Noble Bird has not raced since the Whitney and Hard Aces has two 6th place finishes in the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again to follow-up on his Gold Cup score.
So the field is dwindling.
Noble Bird came out of the Whitney with an injury. I believe they're bringing him back next year.
OK. Thanks.
Potential field - now I have heard Wicked Strong is double entered...
American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird
Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic
Coach Inge - Big Brown by Boundary by Danzig and Touch Too Much by Holy Bull by Great Above by Minnesota Mac (another John Nerud)
Constitution - Tapit and Baffled by Distorted Humor by Forty Niner
Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector
Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat
Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat
Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister
Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector
Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot
Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer
So who knows what the field will look like...
Strong field. Just noticed a lot of them trace back to Storm Cat. Impressive.
Its wild - Storm Cat by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer for one line...
Mr. Prospector by Raise A Native by Native Dancer for another line...
And Seattle Slew by Bold Reasoning by Boldnesian by Bold Ruler by Nasrullah for another line
American Pharoah - - Native Dancer and Northern Dancer by Nearctic
Beholder - Northern Dancer top and Nearctic
Coach Inge - Northern Dancer top and Rough and Tumble (Dr. Fager's sire) who has Belini in his bloodline which I believe Tonalist has too
Effinex - Nasrullah and Native Dancer
Frosted - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Honor Code - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Keen Ice - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Smooth Roller - Norther Dancer and Native Dancer
Tonalist - Nasrullah top and on the dam side goes back to Pharos who is above Nasrullah...
Wicked Strong - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Its just crazy how many of these horses trace to the same lines...
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 15, 2015, 12:18:49 PM
Its wild - Storm Cat by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer for one line...
Mr. Prospector by Raise A Native by Native Dancer for another line...
And Seattle Slew by Bold Reasoning by Boldnesian by Bold Ruler by Nasrullah for another line
American Pharoah - - Native Dancer and Northern Dancer by Nearctic
Beholder - Northern Dancer top and Nearctic
Coach Inge - Northern Dancer top and Rough and Tumble (Dr. Fager's sire) who has Belini in his bloodline which I believe Tonalist has too
Effinex - Nasrullah and Native Dancer
Frosted - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Honor Code - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Keen Ice - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Smooth Roller - Norther Dancer and Native Dancer
Tonalist - Nasrullah top and on the dam side goes back to Pharos who is above Nasrullah...
Wicked Strong - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Its just crazy how many of these horses trace to the same lines...
Very interesting! Thanks
Honor Code just put in an insane work earlier today where Dave Grening reported a 46.14 time for 4 furlongs...and then later noted it as 58.16.
http://www.drf.com/news/honor-code-starts-late-finishes-early
Honor Code went from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole in 23.23 seconds, then, once straightened away down the lane, went his next quarter in 22.91 and then the next eighth in 12.02 seconds (58.16). He galloped out six furlongs in 1:11.07 and seven-eighths in 1:24.50.
To give some perspective here...
Honor Code's work last week was called his best of the summer by McGaughey and it came in at 1:00.60 for 5 furlongs.
To give some more perspective here...American Pharoah blazing 7 furlong work from last week came in clocked by Baffert at :12 1/5, :24, :35 4/5, :47, :59 4/5, and 1:11 2/5. Baffert had a final time of 1:24 flat for seven furlongs, with a gallop out to a mile in 1:37 1/5.
One was having a 7 furlong work and the other a 5 furlong work...but both were sharp, sharp, sharp...
Beholder has a slight fever. Hopefully, she will be back to training soon.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95258/beholder-misses-training-due-to-fever
Glad she is back on track.
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Analyzing_the_Field_123#
Actual field
American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird
Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic
Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector
Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat
Hard Aces - Hard Spun by Danzig and All In With Aces by Quiet American by Fappiano
Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat
Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister
Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector
Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot
So what does everyone think about post position?
Is it possible Keen Ice on the inside gets caught up in the need for the lead.
Is Frosted tempted to go from the gate?
How close to American Pharoah does Beholder go? Does she just try and get the same trip as the Pacific Classic or do they change things up a little bit?
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 28, 2015, 06:07:58 AM
Actual field
American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird
Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic
Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector
Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat
Hard Aces - Hard Spun by Danzig and All In With Aces by Quiet American by Fappiano
Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat
Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister
Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector
Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot
So what does everyone think about post position?
Is it possible Keen Ice on the inside gets caught up in the need for the lead.
Is Frosted tempted to go from the gate?
How close to American Pharoah does Beholder go? Does she just try and get the same trip as the Pacific Classic or do they change things up a little bit?
Keen Ice doesn't possess the turn of foot necessary to go for the early lead, at least he's never displayed it in the past. Frosted, more than likely, will not go after the lead early either. I would think that both Smooth Roller and Beholder will be closest to Pharoah early and move a little earlier than they would prefer, e.g. the 3/8 th pole as opposed to the 5/16th or the quarter pole. This could help set things up for Tonalist, if they can get abreast of Pharoah and put the screws to him a little.
That is not good for Honor Code. I am hoping Smooth Roller goes for the lead. His trainer said if he could get the early lead he would take it.
I think the race is setting up more and more for Tonalist and Beholder pace wise.
Do you think the inside post hurts Tonalist at all?
Beholder's out... Pharaoh's job is getting easier by the minute. I like Frosted for the win, then Pharoah and then Tonalist or Keen Ice.
I don't think Smooth Roller will be able to hang this time around and Honor Code will get no pace. Any of the rest would be a shocker.
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 29, 2015, 06:43:09 AM
That is not good for Honor Code. I am hoping Smooth Roller goes for the lead. His trainer said if he could get the early lead he would take it.
I think the race is setting up more and more for Tonalist and Beholder pace wise.
Do you think the inside post hurts Tonalist at all?
It's not optimal but it shouldn't be a huge detriment. The problem with Tonalist is you never know how he's going to be ridden. In last year's Classic, he was last early with a fairly moderate pace up front, on a track that was not conducive to deep closers. That, to be diplomatic, was a tactical error. While he's blessed with a decent turn of foot, he's really better running within 3-5 lengths of the lead early in a 10f race, especially when there is a tepid pace. I think the stragglers, Honor Code, Hard Aces, etc. will drop way off early and Tonalist will be near Frosted early not terribly far off the leaders.
Quote from: peeptoad on October 29, 2015, 10:29:43 AM
Beholder's out... Pharaoh's job is getting easier by the minute. I like Frosted for the win, then Pharoah and then Tonalist or Keen Ice.
I don't think Smooth Roller will be able to hang this time around and Honor Code will get no pace. Any of the rest would be a shocker.
I think for Frosted to win, Pharoah needs to be compromised by the trip, e.g. Smooth Roller will duel with him. Espinoza needs, in my opinion, to have a good plan going in as he's not a good rider when he has to improvise. I think if Smooth Roller gets the early lead he's gonna have to want it not just take it if it is handed to him. At any rate it won't benefit either Smooth Roller or Pharoah to get into a tight quartered macho match such as what transpired in the Travers with Frosted and Pharoah. I think the pace will be moderate and thus I like Pharoah the most while giving Tonalist a puncher's chance. I like Frosted and Honor Code--who I think will get by a tiring Smooth Roller and will have too much kick for Keen Ice--to round out the Super.
I agree to an extent and I think Pharoah is the most likely winner, but at a far better price I would take a chance with Frosted. I do have only moderate confidence that Frosted can outright win to be honest and I agree the likely pace won't be to his benefit.
Imo, Honor Code will get the job done, big time. with Frosted second.
But that's just me.
Quote from: Raven on October 30, 2015, 07:27:31 PM
Imo, Honor Code will get the job done, big time. with Frosted second.
But that's just me.
I stink! BIG TIME
me too!
Well, he went out on top.
The fans loved it. I would have liked Honor Code to get a bit closer, but he still got third.
Was the track playing fairly? I heard that Honor Code was the only horse to be able to close against the pace setters on both BC days. Is that true?