2015 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

Wicked Strong pointing to the Dirt Mile.
http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-dirt-mile

It will be interesting to see if Coach Inge or Constitution make the gate.

Also, Noble Bird and Hard Aces have won Win and You're In races for the Classic, but their recent form has not been great. Noble Bird has not raced since the Whitney and Hard Aces has two 6th place finishes in the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again to follow-up on his Gold Cup score.

So the field is dwindling.

[peeptoad]

Noble Bird came out of the Whitney with an injury. I believe they're bringing him back next year.

[Man o Taz]

OK. Thanks.

[Man o Taz]

Potential field - now I have heard Wicked Strong is double entered...

American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird

Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic

Coach Inge - Big Brown by Boundary by Danzig and Touch Too Much by Holy Bull by Great Above by Minnesota Mac (another John Nerud)

Constitution - Tapit and Baffled by Distorted Humor by Forty Niner

Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector 

Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer 

Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat

Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat

Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister

Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector

Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot

Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer 

So who knows what the field will look like...

[afleetphil]

Strong field. Just noticed a lot of them trace back to Storm Cat. Impressive.

[Man o Taz]

Its wild - Storm Cat by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer for one line...
Mr. Prospector by Raise A Native by Native Dancer for another line...
And Seattle Slew by Bold Reasoning by Boldnesian by Bold Ruler by Nasrullah for another line

American Pharoah - - Native Dancer  and Northern Dancer by Nearctic
Beholder - Northern Dancer top and Nearctic
Coach Inge - Northern Dancer top and Rough and Tumble (Dr. Fager's sire) who has Belini in his bloodline which I believe Tonalist has too
Effinex - Nasrullah and Native Dancer
Frosted - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Honor Code - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Keen Ice - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Smooth Roller - Norther Dancer and Native Dancer
Tonalist - Nasrullah top and on the dam side goes back to Pharos who is above Nasrullah...
Wicked Strong - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer

Its just crazy how many of these horses trace to the same lines...

[Dusty]

Its wild - Storm Cat by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer for one line...
Mr. Prospector by Raise A Native by Native Dancer for another line...
And Seattle Slew by Bold Reasoning by Boldnesian by Bold Ruler by Nasrullah for another line

American Pharoah - - Native Dancer  and Northern Dancer by Nearctic
Beholder - Northern Dancer top and Nearctic
Coach Inge - Northern Dancer top and Rough and Tumble (Dr. Fager's sire) who has Belini in his bloodline which I believe Tonalist has too
Effinex - Nasrullah and Native Dancer
Frosted - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Gleneagles - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Honor Code - Nasrullah and Northern Dancer
Keen Ice - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer
Smooth Roller - Norther Dancer and Native Dancer
Tonalist - Nasrullah top and on the dam side goes back to Pharos who is above Nasrullah...
Wicked Strong - Northern Dancer and Northern Dancer

Its just crazy how many of these horses trace to the same lines...

Very interesting! Thanks

[Man o Taz]

Honor Code just put in an insane work earlier today where Dave Grening reported a 46.14 time for 4 furlongs...and then later noted it as 58.16.

http://www.drf.com/news/honor-code-starts-late-finishes-early

Honor Code went from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole in 23.23 seconds, then, once straightened away down the lane, went his next quarter in 22.91 and then the next eighth in 12.02 seconds (58.16). He galloped out six furlongs in 1:11.07 and seven-eighths in 1:24.50.

To give some perspective here...

Honor Code's work last week was called his best of the summer by McGaughey and it came in at 1:00.60 for 5 furlongs.

To give some more perspective here...American Pharoah blazing 7 furlong work from last week came in clocked by Baffert at :12 1/5, :24, :35 4/5, :47, :59 4/5, and 1:11 2/5. Baffert had a final time of 1:24 flat for seven furlongs, with a gallop out to a mile in 1:37 1/5.

One was having a 7 furlong work and the other a 5 furlong work...but both were sharp, sharp, sharp...

[Man o Taz]

Beholder has a slight fever. Hopefully, she will be back to training soon.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95258/beholder-misses-training-due-to-fever

[Man o Taz]

Glad she is back on track.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Analyzing_the_Field_123#

[Man o Taz]

Actual field

American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird

Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic

Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector 

Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer 

Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat

Hard Aces - Hard Spun by Danzig and All In With Aces by Quiet American by Fappiano

Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat

Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister

Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector

Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot

So what does everyone think about post position?

Is it possible Keen Ice on the inside gets caught up in the need for the lead.

Is Frosted tempted to go from the gate?

How close to American Pharoah does Beholder go? Does she just try and get the same trip as the Pacific Classic or do they change things up a little bit?

[curtis]

Actual field

American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird

Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic

Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector 

Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer 

Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat

Hard Aces - Hard Spun by Danzig and All In With Aces by Quiet American by Fappiano

Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat

Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister

Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector

Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot

So what does everyone think about post position?

Is it possible Keen Ice on the inside gets caught up in the need for the lead.

Is Frosted tempted to go from the gate?

How close to American Pharoah does Beholder go? Does she just try and get the same trip as the Pacific Classic or do they change things up a little bit?

Keen Ice doesn't possess the turn of foot necessary to go for the early lead, at least he's never displayed it in the past. Frosted, more than likely, will not go after the lead early either. I would think that both Smooth Roller and Beholder will be closest to Pharoah early and move a little earlier than they would prefer, e.g. the 3/8 th pole as opposed to the 5/16th or the quarter pole.  This could help set things up for Tonalist, if they can get abreast of Pharoah and put the screws to him a little.

[Man o Taz]

That is not good for Honor Code. I am hoping Smooth Roller goes for the lead. His trainer said if he could get the early lead he would take it.

I think the race is setting up more and more for Tonalist and Beholder pace wise.

Do you think the inside post hurts Tonalist at all?

[peeptoad]

Beholder's out... Pharaoh's job is getting easier by the minute. I like Frosted for the win, then Pharoah and then Tonalist or Keen Ice.
I don't think Smooth Roller will be able to hang this time around and Honor Code will get no pace. Any of the rest would be a shocker.

[curtis]

That is not good for Honor Code. I am hoping Smooth Roller goes for the lead. His trainer said if he could get the early lead he would take it.

I think the race is setting up more and more for Tonalist and Beholder pace wise.

Do you think the inside post hurts Tonalist at all?

It's not optimal but it shouldn't be a huge detriment.  The problem with Tonalist is you never know how he's going to be ridden.  In last year's Classic, he was last early with a fairly moderate pace up front, on a track that was not conducive to deep closers.  That, to be diplomatic, was a tactical error.  While he's blessed with a decent turn of foot, he's really better running within 3-5 lengths of the lead early in a 10f race, especially when there is a tepid pace.  I think the stragglers, Honor Code, Hard Aces, etc. will drop way off early and Tonalist will be near Frosted early not terribly far off the leaders.