So...the contenders list is quite long right now...and quite interesting...
What a field...of course all of these cannot make the gate...and I can highlight those I think will make the gate with an uhnderline :"thus"...
Atreides
6th Indiana Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Monarchos Stakes, 8 furlongs, 105 BSF
Allowance race, 6.5 furlongs, 105 BSF
Australia(G1 English Champion Stakes/G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, October 18th)
2nd G1 Irish Champion Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Juddmonte International, 10.5 furlongs
G1 Irish Derby, 12 furlongs
G1 Epsom Derby, 12 furlongs
3rd G1 English 2000 Guineas, 8 furlongs
Bayern*
G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs, 107 BSF
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
California Chrome*
6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 105
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs, BSF 97
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, BSF 108
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
Candy Boy
3rd G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd West Virginia Derby, 9 furlongs
13th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Close Hatches If Mr. Mott truly believes she is the next Royal Delta in his barn this move might make sense. However, the only reason to enter her in the Classic may be that he thinks Beholder owns the Santa Anita track.
4th G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs.
G1 Personal Ensign, 9 furlongs defeating Princess of Sylmar
G1 Ogden Phipps, 8.5 furlongs, defeating Princess of Sylmar and Beholder
G1 Apple Blossom, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Azeri, 8.5 furlongs
Cigar Street
Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 9 furlongs
G3 Skip Away, 9.5 furlongs
Allowance, 9 furlongs
Clubhouse Ride
7th Los Alamitos Mile
10th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
4th G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs
3rd Santana Mile
3rd San Carlos, 7 furlong
5th Joe Hernandez, 6.5 furlongs
I wonder if Clubhouse Ride will go. The reason I say he will is because which he has had a lackluster year...his win came at Santa Anita and he was second in the Santa Anita rendition of the Gold Cup.
Departing
2nd Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
8th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Stephen Foster, 9 furlongs
Allowance Race, 8 furlongs
His connections may want to save him for the Clark Handicap.
Fed Biz
Looks to be pointed to the G1 Dirt MIle.
2nd G1 Awesome Again Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Pat O'Brien Stakes, 6.5 furlongs
G2 San Diego Handicap, 8 furlongs
Imperative
5th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
3rd, Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 107
8th San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
7th G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 San Antonio Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 8 furlongs
Itsmyluckyday
3rd G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, 108
2nd G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs, 107
G3 Salvator Mile
Majestic Light Stakes, 1 mile, 70 yards
Best of the Rest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th G2 Gulfstream Handicap, 1 mile
Last Gunfighter
6th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
6th G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
5th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
9th G2 Suburban Handicap, 10 furlongs
Mountainview Handicap, 9 furlongs
Lea
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording one of the highest BSFs (114) for 2014
Majestic Harbor
4th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
6th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
3rd G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
G3 Tokyo City, 12 furlongs
4th G2 San Antonio, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 San Pasquale, 8.5 furlongs
Moreno*
11th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, BSF 108
G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs, BSF 109
Ride On Curlin
11th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
2nd G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 103
7th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
3rd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Allowance Race, 6 furlongs
Shared Belief*
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs, 101 BSF
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, 115 BSF
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs, 104 BSF
Stryker PhD
G3 Longacres Mile
Mount Rainier Handicap, 8.5 furlongs
Budweiser Handicap, 8 furlongs
Toast of New York
2nd G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
6th G1 Belmont Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs
Tonalist*
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 106
3rd, G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs, BSF 100
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs, BSF 104
VE Day*
5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs
War Command
7th, G1 Coral Eclipse, 10 furlongs
4th G1 St. James Palace Stakes, 8 furlongs
9th G1 English 2000 Guineas, 8 furlongs
Wicked Strong*
2nd G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
DNF G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furloongs
G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
4th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, BSF 104
Zivo
2nd G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
Commentator, 8 furlongs
Kings Point, 8.5 furlongs
Whodam, 8 furlongs
Note:: "*" signifies Man o' Taz HOTY Contender
No idea what's going with Lea... time is running out. His last work was 3 weeks ago and he hasn't run since February.
You can probably scratch Ride On Curlin off the list since he just returned to the barn barely a week ago and has not even registered an official work. He had a setback during his break after the Belmont.
I'm only extrapolating information from stuff I've read though...
Well, you are usually pretty good with your extrapolations. ;)
Do you see anyone possibly making the BC Classic besides the horses listed...
I guess you might always find a long shot winning or finishing in the money in one of the final preps who could go...but other than that I think this is the field.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 24, 2014, 05:52:05 AM
Do you see anyone possibly making the BC Classic besides the horses listed...
I guess you might always find a long shot winning or finishing in the money in one of the final preps who could go...but other than that I think this is the field.
Stryker PhD. He's a notch below the best older horses but the best older horses are gone. He probably fits better going a mile but the Dirt Mile is looking to be a deeper race. You can thank me when you collect. ;)
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87554/chrome-eyes-bc-classic-bayern-has-options (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87554/chrome-eyes-bc-classic-bayern-has-options)
Chrome is a go (as expected), Bayern is up in the air. Baffert is considering the Classic, Dirt Mile, and Sprint.
No plans for Candy Boy yet; sounds like they are on hold with a decision.
Majestic Harbor goes in the AA on Saturday and the Classic sounds likely.
History Stacked Against California Chrome winning the BC Classic...
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2014/09/24/history-stacked-against-california-chrome.aspx
Shared Belief is looking sharp for the G1 Awesome Again. He could become the first undefeated BC Classic winner, right?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87551/shared-belief-works-toward-awesome-again
Article on California Chrome and Shared Belief
http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/sports/20140924/california-chrome-could-face-unbeaten-shared-belief-in-breeders-cup-classic
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/sports/20140925/breeders-cup-classic-shared-belief-california-chrome-heading-for-a-showdown
Right now I have 13 possibles for the BC Classic...
Can 13 horses go in the gate at Santa Anita?
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2014/10/05/top-5-contenders-of-2014-breeders-cup-classic/
1. Shared Belief
2. Bayern
3. California Chrome
4. Tonalist
5. Zivo
http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-Standings-5804112.php
The $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic will run Nov. 1 at Santa Anita (trainer in parentheses):
BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Itsmyluckyday (Edward Plesa, Jr.)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
21 — Wildcat Red (Jose Garoffalo)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
15 — Ride On Curlin (William G. Gowan)
x-Breeders' Cup Challenge winner earned an automatic starting position.
Actually, 14 can go. the BC wouldn't run at a track that couldn't accommodate their maximum.
Thanks,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2014/10/13/breeders-cup-classic-standings/17229197/
BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
14 — Medal Count (Dale Romans)
12 — Zivo (Chad Brown)
10 — Footbridge (Eoin G. Harty)
x-Breeders' Cup Challenge winner earned an automatic starting position.
(http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/9137c2b707e563befc77a57609e7006dd2d4d357/c=2-0-227-300&r=537&c=0-0-534-712/local/-/media/Louisville/2014/10/14/Clones-vs-Chromes-230x300.jpg)
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/horse-racing-blog/2014/10/14/breeders-cup-classic-clones-vs-chromes/17253439/
BCC — x-Bayern (Bob Baffert)
BCC — x-Majestic Harbor (Sean McCarthy)
BCC — x-Moreno (Eric J. Guillot)
BCC — x-Shared Belief (Jerry Hollendorfer)
BCC — x-Tonalist (Christophe Clement)
36 — California Chrome (Art Sherman)
22 — Tapiture (Steve Asmussen)
20 — Candy Boy (John W. Sadler)
18 — Imperative (George Papaprodromou)
16 — Fed Biz (Bob Baffert)
14 — Medal Count (Dale Romans)
12 — Zivo (Chad Brown)
10 — Footbridge (Eoin G. Harty)
I crossed out Fed Biz because I think he is targeting the G1 BC Dirt Mile.
Two AP Indy grandsons have said they will be entered in the BC Classic bringing the entries to 16.
Noble Moon
4th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Kings Bishop, 7 furlongs
6th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Jerome, 8 furlongs
Prayer for Relief
3rd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Whitney Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Suburban Handicap, 10 furlongs
8th G1 Stephen Foster Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Pimlico Special, 9.5 furlongs
4th G2 Oaklawn Park Handicap, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Mineshaft, 8.5 furloongs
3rd Louisiana Handicap, 8.5 furlongs
News...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88018/bc-classic-how-weak-are-the-older-horses?&utm_source=TripleCrownNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20141021
With the defections/retirements of:
Palace Malice
Lea
Will Take Charge
Moonshine Mullin
Itsmyluckyday
Game On Dude
Mucho Macho Man
And we could add Revolutionary who was certainly bred for distance with AP Indy on the dam's side.
But what about the three year old retirements/defections/passings:
Cairo Prince
Chitu
Commissioner
Constitution G1 Florida Derby
Dance With Fate G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Danza G1 Arkansas Derby
General a Rod
Harry's Holiday
Havana
Honor Code
Hoppertunity
Indianapolis
Intense Holiday
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Top Billing
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos
Wicked Strong G1 Wood Memorial
That's six out of the top 10 Derby point holders...
Twelve out of the top 20...
There are 5 top G1 prep races for the Kentucky Derby - 4 of the 5 winners are sidelined before the end of the year.
I always suggested that Bayern might be in nice shape for the BC Classic...because of the way the track appeared to be like Monmouth Park's - but California Chrome has also won over the track and Shared Belief as well...so it will be interesting.
FROM MIKE WATCHMAKER AT DRF REGARDING A SANTA ANITA SPEED BIAS
http://www.drf.com/blogs/watchmaker-time-start-thinking-about-breeders-cup-track-bias
From Oct. 12 through Oct. 18, there were 22 main track sprints run. An incredible 20 of them, or 91 percent, were won by "speed." Now, it should be noted that only three of those 20 speed winners were horses that led at every call, so the races weren't exactly run in conveyor belt-like fashion. Still, over the years, I've found the average success rate for what I call speed to be in the neighborhood of 35 to 40 percent. So these results were stunning.
Over the same period at Santa Anita, there were eight main track routes run. Six of those eight routes, or 75 percent, were won by speed. I know this is a small sample, but it is interesting that four of those six speed winners were front-running winners.
For the record, I did a similar look at the Santa Anita main track last year, only it was one week before the Breeders' Cup. I found that in sprints, speed won 76 percent of the time the last full week of racing and 80 percent of the time for the most recent incomplete week at the time I posted that blog entry. In routes, I found speed won 40 percent and then 83 percent of the time for those same corresponding periods.
In other words, there was evidence beforehand that we might run into the speed bias we encountered on Breeders' Cup Friday last year. Given what we now know about Santa Anita's last five cards, it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on how the track there plays this week.
At the same time, you also have to hope that lessons were learned last year and that everyone understands the importance of having even surfaces for the Breeders' Cup. Although true track biases can be the horseplayer's best friend, we all want our championship-making races decided on fair tracks, on which no one is compromised only because they have a certain running style.
Well, the BC pre-entries are out:
Bayern
California Chrome
Candy Boy
Cigar Street
Footbridge
Imperative
Majestic Harbor
Moreno
Prayer For Relief
Shared Belief
Toast Of New York
Tonalist
V.E. Day
Zivo
With Big Cazanova being on the outside looking in.
No Clubhouse Ride, no Last Gunfighter and no Styrker PhD.
Everyone else though.
A full field means that California Chrome probably needs the outside more than ever.
I do not believe that Mr. Pletcher has any entries in the race. The reason I mention this is that California Chrome's last two losses were at the hands of Pletcher horses with Matterhorn grabbing a quarter of his hind hoof at the break in the Belmont Stakes, and Protonico and Javier Castellano locking him down on the rail in the Pennsylvania Derby.
We know Bayern will look for a lead in the race, and Shared Belief, Tonlaist and California Chrome will come off the pace. The question is how fast the race will be. If its 23, 47, 112 or less that will help Chrome and friends close, if its more than that Shared Belief may be the only one that can catch Bayern on the front end.
I think Footbridge could be a long shot spoiler in the race.
My fear is that Moreno will rate thinking he will have the kick - giving Bayern a loose lead on a speed favoring track and he'll just be uncatchable - which is fine - he's a talented horse.
I think it will be tough work for Mike Smith, Joel Rosario and Victor Espinosa. They have to watch closely how the track is playing - whether the rail is live - and how close to the pace they need to be to win. Greg Wolf said that he really likes California Chrome, but he does not think he will win because as a warrior he likes to race and one race - especially one where he finished sixth - will not be enough to prepare him for this tough test. He has been training very well - so I am optimistic if he gets an OUTSIDE trip that he can do it. Its where he goes inside that he has lost - though we all know that the Belmont Stakes there was an excuse with the grabbed quarter at the start. Mike Smith also has to know where to place his horse. He cannot be too far back if he wants to catch Bayern, but if he is too close to the pace he could get burned out - OR NOT.
By far this is Shared Belief's toughest test competition wise. Many are giving the lightly raced Toast of New York a lot of credit based upon his second place finish on polytrack in the Pacific Classic. However, he has never raced on dirt. And training on a dirt like surface to me leaves a big question mark.
Tonalist also appears a big question mark as well. He did break his maiden at Gulfstream Park going 9 furlongs, and then finish second in a tough field where the impressive Constitution was the victor. However, since then he did not do well at Saratoga. To me, Santa Anita does not play like Belmont Park at all. Its not a sandy track with big sweeping turns. So this race will be a question mark.
It will be interesting to see if Big Cazanova makes the race since he can also put some pressure on Bayern. If not, I think Bayern will be left to his own devices on the front end and he'll bring it home. He is bred to get 10 furlongs on the bottom. We'll see if those gene are predominant. He failed his last 10 furlong outing as I thought he might given the nature of the Saratoga track which is much more tiring. Santa Anita's is more forgiving.
The Watchmaker article should come into play as well - will there be a bias or will the track play more honestly.
Bayern*
G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs, 107 BSF
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
Works:
10/26 5 furlongs, 59.8
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:12.2
10/13 5 furlongs, 58.4
10/8 4 furlongs, 47.2
9/14 5 furlongs, 58.6
9/8 5 furlongs, 1:00.2
California Chrome*
6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 105
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs, BSF 97
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, BSF 108
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
Works:
10/25 5 furlongs, 59.6 (gallop out 6 furlongs in 1:12)
10/18 6 furlongs, 1:12.2
10/11 5 furlongs, 59:6
10/4 4 furlongs, 47.4
9/13 6 furlongs, 1:13.8
9/6 6 furlongs, 1:10.2
Candy Boy
3rd G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd West Virginia Derby, 9 furlongs
13th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Works:
10/25 7 furlongs, 1:25
10/18 6 furlongs, 1:10.4
10/11 5 furlongs, 1:00.8
10/4 4 furlongs, 47.8
9/14 6 furlongs, 1:13.4
Cigar Street
Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 9 furlongs
G3 Skip Away, 9.5 furlongs
Allowance, 9 furlongs
Works:
10/26 4 furlongs, 48.08
10/19 5 furlongs, 59.72
10/13 4 furlongs, 47.58
9/22 5 furlongs, 1:01.47
9/15 4 furlongs 49.89
Footbridge
3rd G1 Awesome Again Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd San Diego Handicap, 8.5 furlongs
Works:
10/27 5 furlongs, 1:00.20
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:13
10/13 5 furlongs, 59
10/6 4 furlongs, 48
9/22 5 furlongs, 1:00.40
9/15 7 furlongs, 1:25.80
Imperative
5th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
3rd, Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 107
8th San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
7th G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 San Antonio Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 8 furlongs
Works:
10/23 6 furlongs, 1:12.20
10/15 5 furlongs, 59.80
10/8 4 furlongs, 49.20
9/21 5 furlongs, 1:00
9/13 5 furlongs, 1:00.20
Majestic Harbor
4th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
6th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
3rd G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
G3 Tokyo City, 12 furlongs
4th G2 San Antonio, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 San Pasquale, 8.5 furlongs
Works:
10/26 4 furlongs, 48.60
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:11.20
10/14 5 furlongs, 1:00.80
10/8 4 furlongs, 48.80
9/21 5 furlongs, 1:00.40
9/15 4 furlongs, 48.80
Moreno*
11th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, BSF 108
G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs, BSF 109
Works:
10/24 6 furlongs, 1:12.60
10/11 4 furlongs, 50
9/20 5 furlongs, 1:03.31
Prayer For Relief
3rd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
8th G1 Stephen Foster, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Pimlico Special, 9.5 furlongs
4th G2 New Orleans Handicap, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Mineshaft, 8.5 furlongs
Works:
10/25 4 furlongs, 47.40
10/18 5 furlongs, 59
10/12 5 furlongs, 1:01.60
9/20 5 furlongs, 58.44
9/12 5 furlongs, 1:01.14
Shared Belief*
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs, 101 BSF
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, 115 BSF
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs, 104 BSF
Works:
10/28 4 furlongs, 52.40
10/21 6 furlongs, 1:14.40
10/14 5 furlongs, 1:00.60
10/7 4 furlongs, 50.80
9/23 4 furlongs, 47.60
9/16 6 furlongs, 1:15.20
9/10 5 furlongs, 1:02.40
9/4 4 furlongs, 50.20
I don't know much about Shared Beliefs works, but that does not look like a sharp time coming into the BC Classic.
I think being pressed, Shared Belief may have had a lot taken out of him in the G1 Awesome Again.
Does anyone have the time of his last work before the Pacific Classic?
Toast of New York
2nd G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
6th G1 Belmont Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs
Tonalist*
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 106
3rd, G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs, BSF 100
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs, BSF 104
Works:
10/25 5 furlongs, 1:01.85
10/19 5 furlongs,1:00.57
10/13 5 furlongs,1:03.04
9/22 5 furlongs, 1:00.09
9/15 6 furlongs, 1:14.71
VE Day*
5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs
Works:
10/28 4 furlongs, 48.60
10/21 7 furlongs, 1:27.25
10/14 4 furlongs, 49.89
9/22 5 furlongs, 1:00.69
9/15 7 furlongs, 1:28.30
Zivo
2nd G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
Commentator, 8 furlongs
Kings Point, 8.5 furlongs
Whodam, 8 furlongs
Works:
10/26 5 furlongs, 1:00.90
10/18 5 furlongs, 1:01.53
10/10 5 furlong, 1:01.96
9/20 5 furlongs, 59.50
9/13 4 furlongs, 49.44
Note:: "*" signifies Man o' Taz HOTY Contender
Footbridge some have described as a live long shot.
I think he represents the best chance (perhaps only) for Street Cry to get another BC winner this year.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/10/26/haskin-s-breeders-cup-classic-report-don-t-overlook-imperative.aspx
RACE 12 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC (GRADE I) POST TIME - 5:35 PM
ENTRIES PLUS PPS & SELECTIONS
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super High Five
Santa Anita Park STAKES
Purse $5,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 Lbs. $50,000 to pre-enter, $50,000 to enter, with guaranteed $5 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One And One Fourth Miles.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 Prayer for Relief (KY) 6/H L I Ortiz, Jr. 126 D L Romans 30/1
2 Cigar Street (KY) 5/H L J R Velazquez 126 W I Mott 12/1
3 Imperative (KY) 4/G L L Dettori 126 G Papaprodromou 30/1
4 Moreno (KY) 4/G L J Castellano 126 E J Guillot 20/1
5 V. E. Day (KY) 3/C L J Talamo 122 J A Jerkens 20/1
6 Shared Belief (KY) 3/G L M E Smith 122 J Hollendorfer 9/5
7 Bayern (KY) 3/C L M Garcia 122 B Baffert 6/1
8 Zivo (NY) 5/H L J Lezcano 126 C C Brown 15/1
9 Toast of New York (KY) 3/C L J P Spencer 122 J Osborne 12/1
10 Footbridge (KY) 4/C L R Bejarano 126 E G Harty 30/1
11 Tonalist (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 122 C Clement 5/1
12 Candy Boy (KY) 3/C L C S Nakatani 122 J W Sadler 20/1
13 California Chrome (CA) 3/C L V Espinoza 122 A Sherman 4/1
14 Majestic Harbor (KY) 6/H L T Baze 126 S McCarthy 20/1
Also Eligibles:
15 Big Cazanova (ARG) 5/R L E Trujillo 126 P Miller 30/1
Owners: 1 - Zayat Stables, LLC; 2 - Jake Ballis & Rashard Lewis; 3 - KM Racing Enterprise, Inc.; 4 - Southern Equine Stable, LLC; 5 - Magalen O. Bryant; 6 - Jungle Racing, LLC, KMN Racing, LLC, Hollendorfer, Litt, Solis II & Todaro; 7 - Kaleem Shah, Inc.; 8 - Thomas Coleman; 9 - Michael Buckley; 10 - Godolphin Racing, LLC; 11 - Robert S. Evans; 12 - C R K Stable; 13 - Steve Coburn & Perry Martin; 14 - Gallant Stable, LLC; 15 - Dona Licha, Gary Barber, Brous Stable & Wachtel Stable
Breeders: 1 - G. R. Aschinger; 2 - Marvin Delfiner, Ted Folkerth &Brookdale; 3 - Glencrest Farm LLC & Darley; 4 - Southern Equine Stables, LLC; 5 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 6 - Pam and Martin Wygod; 7 - Helen Alexander; 8 - Thomas Coleman; 9 - Ashleigh Stud, Frank Ramos & JackieRamos; 10 - Darley; 11 - Woodslane Farm; 12 - Lee Searing & Susan Searing; 13 - Perry Martin & Steve Coburn; 14 - Liberation Farm & Brandywine Farm; 15 - Haras de La Pomme
Well, behind as we usually are on our TV watching of races we just watched September 27th racing coverage...and Mr. Hollendorfer made some interesting comments regarding Shared Belief not liking the Santa Anita track as much as he has liked the synthetic tracks.
I think this speaks to a serious potential vulnerability for Shared Belief.
We know he has not faced the toughest competition - the best route horses in the country - those are the three year olds Bayern, California Chrome, Tonalist and perhaps V.E. Day - and perhaps Zivo.
Being able to take them all on will be interesting.
I continue to look at who is going to challenge Bayern and I do not think its going to be Moreno which makes me think that he could be let loose with fractions of 24 or more early which means he'll be gone. Mr. Baffert called him the "Little Dude". He runs just like Game On Dude. Give him an easy first half/mile and he can close the deal EVEN at 10 furlongs.
Moreno I think is going to lay just off him maybe 2 furlongs back and there will be the rest of the field. They'll never catch Bayern.
As a result, I think Candy Boy and California Chrome will be the only ones with a chance to beat him because only he has the acceleration potential - remember Shared Belief is not totally comfortable over the track - I expect him to get 3rd...on his talent...and Chrome first or second. Candy Boy will give an effort but fall short because he is just not fast enough.
Tonalist and V.E. Day are just not fast enough. The only reason Tonalist was able to win the Belmont Stakes was he was fresh and California Chrome had been stepped on by Matterhorn and had to run 12 furlongs with a pulled quarter in shocking pain.
Moreno is going for the lead. The trainer has said he thinks Bayern folds when looked in the eye. So expect
a 23 and under 46 and under 1:10 and under splits. Then handicap who folds and who will pick up the pieces
Just the way I see it :chickendance: I'm starting to think Bayern will sit off Moreno's flank because of
the outside post
We'll see. There is no way that Moreno goes 23 and wins the race. His only chance is to keep it around 24 like Bayern wants it.
I think Mr. Guillot has been doing some talking and wants everyone to believe that Moreno goes after Bayern - but then when everyone sits back so will Moreno because its the different between being a spoiler and a winner in my mind.
Bayern I believe is like Game On Dude, without the easy lead he folds - but that was the immature Bayern at the beginning of the year. The mature Bayern may be different. It will be fun to see. A fast pace sets it up for the closers and really makes it exciting.
I think Candy Boy may be up front early too.
California Chrome, Shared Belief, Bayern and Zivo
Shared Belief over Tonalist for me :chickendance:
Good luck
While he topped my Kentucky Derby list and I am still a big fan, I have the following reservations regarding Shared Belief:
-Mr. Hollendorfer indicated that he did not like the Santa Anita surface as well as the Del Mar surface at the conclusion of the Awesome Again.
-His final work seemed very slow, 52.4. This is why I am trying to see what his final work for the Pacific Classic was. His work before the Awesome Again was much sharper, 47.6. Thus, it seems to me that the Awesome Again may have taken something out of him.
-He has never faced top, in form, dirt horses before. Candy Boy is a good horse - but when they met in the Los Alamitos Derby, I do not believe that he was nearly as sharp as he is now. Toast of New York is another talented horse, but he is a synthetic specialist like Shared Belief.
-He has never faced a field as large as this one in a race.
-We do not know whether the track is going to have a speed bias, or not. This could factor strongly into Shared Belief's ability to close.
This should be a fascinating race. It will be interesting to watch the cat and mouse game between Bayern and Moreno early in the race. Which one of them goes for the lead. I like California Chrome here. He breaks from post 13 so he won't be boxed in and he has the acceleration to beat the tiring Bayern and Moreno down the stretch.
As good an assessment of the race as I have read so far.
It all depends on how Shared Belief manages over the track facing top dirt horses for the first time.
Yup, Shared Belief is the wildcard here. Will he like the track. Can he compete with quality dirt horses. Maybe. Maybe not. Guess we'll know in a couple of days.
The Breeders Cup will be good therapy for me after losing Z 14 yesterday. Keeps my mind on the races this weekend. And may they all come home safe.
I hope it keeps the focus on the races.
As they should, I am certain they'll have feature stories each day on NBC discussing the tragic loss.
I hope the great racing we see this weekend can stand as a tribute to Z.
This is one reason why I will be cheering very hard for Stanwyck.
Rooting for Cali Chrome and Shared Belief ... 1 - 2 in that order. Just my gut feeling! CC has been my fav since day one! Safe ride for all.
Well, I'm having some trouble wiuth this race this year... probably due to the retirement of most of the older main track males that were worth anything. :o
I have settled on Shared Belief as my top pick, although I am not pleased to be going with the chalk. Zivo would appear to be the best older male in the race, and track seemed to be playing pretty fair yesterday. I give him a chance to run down the speed on this track. I'll throw Cigar Street into exotics... never underestimate Mott with a decent horse that has "cigar" in his name, plus he can likely stalk the speed duel between Bayern and Moreno, gets first jump on the pace. Finally, something about Toast of New York draws me in... he's never run on dirt, big question there, but no problem with the distance, and he will probably work out a stalking trip as well.
Shared Belief
Zivo
Cigar Street/ Toast of New York
good luck!
Speed bias coming through - the track is primed for Bayern or Chrome wire to wire with the 60-1 shot coming home.
Just what I feared.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 01, 2014, 12:58:15 PM
Speed bias coming through - the track is primed for Bayern or Chrome wire to wire with the 60-1 shot coming home.
Just what I feared.
Santa Anita is always going to be speed favoring when you compare it to an Eastern track. Whether a horse will wire the field has more to do with pace. If you think Shared Belief is the most talented horse, I wouldn't throw him out because of the track. I would be very surprised if Espinoza put Chrome on the lead. I think it would take both Bayern and Moreno to have something pretty drastic happen to them early for such a scenario to transpire.
OK.
I think Shared Belief is the most talented, but I am not totally sold that he can compete on dirt against the best dirt horses in the country.
The 14 point difference in BSFs between his Pacific Classic and his Awesome Again - even with Victor Espinosa's gamesmanship raises alarms for me.
I have been trying to find out what the time of his last work before the Pacific Classic was.
He worked 52 and change in his last work and everyone is extolling it like it was the best work of the year - to me its almost 5 seconds slower than his work before the Awesome Again. Now, it may have been a maintenance work - but the work before the Awesome Again was a sharp work...and my thinking is that the Awesome Again was the first race of the year for Shared Belief - and perhaps of his career that he was tested in. Looking at the times of his works they seem slower than past works - which makes me think the race took something out of him and I wonder about his ability to win today. He won the Awesome Again, but at what cost.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 01, 2014, 01:34:32 PM
OK.
I think Shared Belief is the most talented, but I am not totally sold that he can compete on dirt against the best dirt horses in the country.
The 14 point difference in BSFs between his Pacific Classic and his Awesome Again - even with Victor Espinosa's gamesmanship raises alarms for me.
I have been trying to find out what the time of his last work before the Pacific Classic was.
He worked 52 and change in his last work and everyone is extolling it like it was the best work of the year - to me its almost 5 seconds slower than his work before the Awesome Again. Now, it may have been a maintenance work - but the work before the Awesome Again was a sharp work...and my thinking is that the Awesome Again was the first race of the year for Shared Belief - and perhaps of his career that he was tested in. Looking at the times of his works they seem slower than past works - which makes me think the race took something out of him and I wonder about his ability to win today. He won the Awesome Again, but at what cost.
Shared Belief's action is better on synthetic than dirt and his style of running is also more conducive to it so he'll probably never blow top horses away on dirt but he doesn't need to. When you train a horse correctly, you give them what they need. Shared Belief needed sharp works leading into his last two races. The Awesome Again was a tougher race than it figured to be so Hollendorfer has backed off on his works. I would look at the Awesome Again as a good test to teach Shared Belief how he needs to react when things don't go perfectly. If we all saw things the same way though all of this would be very boring. Mark Twain was right.;)
Thanks for that explanation.
I like them all.
Tonalist was not on my derby list but I really like how he has matured and his trainer is all class.
VE Day is a surprise and I know his connections so if he wins - great for them.
I would like Chrome to win to redeem himself, but if Shared Belief manages to do it I'll have no regrets because I always thought he was the class of this generation since I saw him in the Cash Call.
I hope you had it Taz. I keyed Bayern and Shared Belief in a trifecta and bet Bayern to win because of his odds. I also thought they are the two most talented.
I had Toast, lol. Just a hunch.
Well of course the Bayern - Moreno speed matchup never happened due to Moreno getting bumped out of the gate. I thought Chrome was going to catch Bayern. This Bayern is quite a horse. Wire to wire again. Great race though.
Chrome was one race away. His tank was just about empty. If he had come back one race earlier he would have smoked Bayern and Toast at the wire. However, hindsight is always 20/20.
He definitely redeemed himself - though - in everyone's eyes and I hope this means he'll be around for another year of racing.
http://www.drf.com/news/california-chrome-redeems-himself-near-miss
I like this comment the best:
Mark15 hours ago
I am a bartender and a bar manager in a local bar in ohio. We had our halloween party last night, and college football on every t.v. The place was packed. I had the B.C. on one of the tv's, and was asked to change the channel at least ten times. I was clearly the only one in the entire place watching. Not one person in the place knew anything about the B.C. Just then, someone said, hey it's California Chrome. There was an immediate crowd of about ten or more people that gathered in front of the t.v. to watch CC. They were not watching to watch the Breeders Cup, they were watching Chrome. CC has done so much for the horse racing industry, he definitely deserves horse of the year. The Chrome connections are pure class, minus Coburn's outburst after the Belmont.
I think the Breeders Cup ruling was the correct outcome. Cant really control horses out of the gate and I have never seen a Inquiry due to the start if a race. Morally I think it was wrong, but in regards to the rules of horse racing it was right. I also think Baffert showed no class after the race in his interviews.
I just want to see him run again. This is why if he heads to the Clark Handicap we are thinking of making a weekend of it driving 12 hours both ways.
And this one second best:
Laura Roth21 hours ago
I don't know what requirements are needed for horse of the year. However I DO know that CALIFORNIA CHROME has done more for the sport of horse racing than any horse in a long time. I was there yesterday at the Breeders Cup . One out of 3 people were there to see him run. We paid upwards of $200.00 per ticket and the entire place was packed. When he came out on the track and was introduced the crowd went CRAZY!! People who never even watched horse racing were cheering for this amazing horse. All the horses who ran yesterday were beyond incredible - but he has captured the hearts and minds of America. To us he is Horse of the Year . Maybe Horse of the Decade.
TONY deserves a lot of credit for hanging with Bayern on dirt as long as he did.
I still think his turn of foot is better on synthetic, but he showed an awful lot here.
Moreno's bump did affect him. Its two races where he's been involved in incidents. I know this one wasn't his fault.
Many people (including Mike Smith) are saying that Bayern should have been taken down. I disagree. I believe the worst that happened to Shared Belief was his having to check mid-stretch after being bumped by TONY on the outside. This totally slowed his momentum and forced him to have to recover substantially. If this were a synthetic track I bet he makes up the different, but on dirt it was harder for him.
I totally believe that California Chrome redeemed himself and I hope we see him in the Clark Handicap heading back to Churchill - the site of his best victory.
I think that the connections are happy with Chrome's race and do think he ran well, however, he had the best trip out there and still couldn't win. He is the only one of the group of top four three-year-olds that might contest the Clark. Even with that, winning it would probably secure him at least champion three-year-old male. Going forward though unless they get cute and pull a rabbit out of their hat(something I absolutely think Hollendorfer will do to aid Shared Belief) I think. Bayern is the better horse.
So I guess you do not subscribe to the notion that California Chrome is the type of horse that takes a couple of races to get up to speed?
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 04, 2014, 02:10:12 PM
So I guess you do not subscribe to the notion that California Chrome is the type of horse that takes a couple of races to get up to speed?
I believe that California Chrome ran the best race of his life on Saturday and to expect him to move up off of that race considerably is unrealistic. Sherman hasn't had many top horses to train but he knows how to get a horse ready. In my opinion he didn't send out a short horse. Chrome looked fantastic and ran to his looks running a sub 2:00 10f on a track, that though fast, wasn't the super highway it was for the last two years--in fact it is an entirely different surface. I know the third off of a layoff angle is a good handicapping tool but Chrome wasn't really gone so long that Sherman had to start over with his training. Now can he improve? Sure, a little, but also remember he is the most seasoned of the top three-year-olds. I don't believe Bayern is done improving and I think his ceiling is higher. I also think we'll soon find out just how good Shared Belief is as he runs more on dirt. I have to think his feet are a bit of a problem or he wouldn't be training on a surface that from here on in he'll likely rarely ever compete over. I think that Tonalist is at a disadvantage on a very fast track. Somewhat like Easy Goer, I think he is better around more sweeping turns as well. Even though the Santa Anita surface is more fair than before, it still is hard to make up the kind of ground he was being asked to make up.
If Chrome came out of the race well, I'd take him to the Clark because regardless of the field, a win will wrap up Champion three-year-old male in my opinion. As it is, there is a historical precedence as only two multiple classic winners--Riva Ridge in 1972 and Tabasco Cat in 1994--were denied the award in the Eclipse era and in both cases the circumstances were fairly exceptional--even more so than this year. Neither of those horses won the Derby/Preakness double which of course puts a horse on stage as they are eligible to win the Triple Crown. The last Derby/Preakness winner to be denied year end honors was Majestic Prince in 1969 and if you look at Arts and Letters' campaign you can see why. Also, Majestic Prince never ran again after the Belmont. Horse of the Year is a different story. Chrome of course could still win it--especially with a win in a race such as the Clark. Had he won Saturday, he would have been a shoe in for the award.
I agree. I think Chrome ran the best race of his life hands down. I just believe that he can beat Bayern at 10 furlongs. Perhaps not at 9 - but definitely 10. The last quarter was run in over 25 seconds on a speed favoring track. I think that Chrome can best that. Bayern was fading, its just that Chrome could not get to him.
TV commentator Greg Wolf said before the race that he believed that Chrome would come up short because he is the type of horse that just keeps getting better and better before each race. That he really needs a lot of work to get fit - and he thought he likely needed another race before the BC Classic to be fully fit. Jerry Bailey echoed those sentiments after the Breeders Cup. And Victor Espinosa alluded to same after the Pennsylvania Derby when he said he was empty early, and after the Breeders Cup Classic where he said that he was coming up empty and too bad he did not have at least one more race in him before the Classic.
You may be right, but I tend to agree with Wolf, Bailey and Espinosa...that taking a horse that had been racing almost non-stop since April 2013 - 7 races as a 2 year old...10 races before the Kentucky Derby...gets a well-deserved rest after 12 races...he might have needed just one more race.
We do agree he should enter the Clark, but I will truly admire his connections if they do not send him there and let him rest on his laurels and let the voting public (at least those in the industry who can vote) decide based upon his record from January through November whether he is champion three year old. It would be interesting to see who they would choose...Bayern who bested Chrome twice with the controversial win in Classic or Chrome...who tailed off in the second half of the year, but was impressive in the Classic in defeat. Could it be another Zenyatta finish with the second runner up taking the spoils. I like one person's suggestion that Bayern should win champion three year old and Chrome HOTY.
And, as always, I do appreciate your stats and historical information regarding three year olds who had won two legs of the Triple Crown - whether or not they received the Eclipse award for champion three year old. I did not know that.
Quote from: curtis on November 01, 2014, 06:11:22 PM
I hope you had it Taz. I keyed Bayern and Shared Belief in a trifecta and bet Bayern to win because of his odds. I also thought they are the two most talented.
And no I did not. By the time I heard of the surface favoring speed I was nowhere near a track to place a bet and I wasn't in the mood to open a TVG account. :)