Man o' Taz's 2016 Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

Now it is time for reckoning.

Discreetness had his chance and just did not fire. I do not know if its the talent or the distance or both.

The race did not set up for Suddenbreakinnews. I'll give him one more chance.

Zulu turned in his first work since the Fountain of Youth with 4 furlongs in almost 51. I cannot see him being ready to go in the Florida Derby. I think he probably needs some more time. Maybe the Arkansas Derby. 3 weeks out from the Fountain of Youth he turned in a 49.60 work so this 50.98 seems out of character. This was 2 weeks out from the Florida Derby. I am going to drop him temporarily if he gets pointed elsewhere he will jump back on.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. . Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

7. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

8. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

9. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

10. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

11. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

12. [Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 23
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

On The Bubble:

Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

Destin (Giant's Causeway and Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer by Siberian Express by Caro) 50
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 100
G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

[Dusty]

I love your lists - may shuffle a few and .... well - I thank you for taking the time to do this!

[peeptoad]

Not buying Destin yet, huh? Neither is Mike Watchmaker.
I'm eager to see how he runs at a track that's not Tampa, but that's really my only question right at the moment.

Of course the quality jump as the final preps loom is a question ascwell, but they pretty much all have that to answer.

[Man o Taz]

Thanks Dusty. Who is in your top 10 or 12. You would probably have a better list than mine because I hold on to them too long.

Disappointed that Sunny Ridge will not make the Wood Memorial, but glad to see his connections are doing right by him.

He was always targeting the Preakness so even though I liked him as a Derby prospect I knew he was a long shot. I just hoped that this son of Holy Bull might be his Derby winner. I also wonder if he is from Holy Bull's last crop. Has to be close.

peeptoad - Destin is a very talented horse. But his Lecomte run was weird. So is he a product of liking Tampa, or is he something more? I think he is something more, but will wait to see. It could be a nice field for the Bluegrass Stakes with Destin and Brody's Cause targeting the race. 

[Zenyatta]

Anyone want to add Lani into their top 10? I thought the Dubai Derby looked like mostly tired horses with Lani getting there by default.

I do like his breeding however - Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare.

Next weekend will signal a big reshuffle in the top 10's and 12's - with Nyquist and Moyahmen meeting in the FL Derby.   

[Man o Taz]

I would agree with that. I think I read somewhere that Randy Moss computed his Beyer for the race and came up with an 87.

I actually do not expect much of a shuffle.

I expect Nyquist to lose. If he wins there will be a reshuffle, but if he loses he will probably stay at 4 given that I think that he has the 4th best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby given his unique campaign.

[Man o Taz]

Greenpointcrusader is gone. This is really a shame because I believe in the talent of this colt. I just do not understand the campaign for him taking him out of Florida where he was competitive on a surface with the top Derby prospect, Mohaymen, and instead of sending him back to NY where he is also comfortable, we ship him to the Fairgrounds for the Louisiana Derby. I wonder if he goes in the Arkansas Derby.

Other than that, everyone moves up. No big moves. Danzing Candy join the list over Destin because I like his breeding better.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

7. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

8. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

9. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. [Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

On The Bubble:

Destin (Giant's Causeway and Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer by Siberian Express by Caro) 50
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 100
G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

[Dusty]

SHAKE EM UP!!!! Wow... I must admit I was surprised by how easily Nyquist won = BIG disappointment in Aeroforce...

[Man o Taz]

SHAKE EM UP!!!! Wow... I must admit I was surprised by how easily Nyquist won = BIG disappointment in Aeroforce...

I am glad Aeroforce got his chance on a fair track to prove whether he had the quality to compete on dirt. He does not. It is a shame, but now we know for certain. No second guessing now.

I am still skeptical of Nyquist getting 10 furlongs. A 94 BSF is not great. Perhaps the Florida track is more tiring than people realize.

1. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Next Race: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

4. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

7. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

8. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

9. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

[Man o Taz]

Well, I was impressed with Outwork's win in the Wood. I thought he had nothing his own way and still one the race, possibly bouncing off his Tampa Bay Derby performance where he lost by a length.

1. Outwork (Uncle Mo and Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) 120
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs BSF 93
2nd Tampa Bay Derby, BSF 100

2. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dale Romans
G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 91
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

6. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 126
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 103
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

7. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 91
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

8. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

9. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
5th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
4th G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

My Man Sam (Trappe Shot by Tapit and Lauren Byrd by Arch) 40
Trainer: Chad Brown
2nd G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs 

[Dusty]

ANTICIPATION for the finale!

[Man o Taz]

Creator, Creator, Creator. Screwing up my picks. LOL 

This is tough.

Outwork stays tops. I thought he had two strong performances and I am counting on him having won the Wood Memorial when he was not at his best as incentive to say he can move forward and improve next out at the Kentucky Derby.

Brody's Cause is looking stronger to me too after I rewatched last week's races.

I flip-flopped Exaggerator and Mor Spirit. Mor Spirit's experience on an off track in the Kentucky Jockey Club I think he should have done better in the Santa Anita Derby. The more I look at Exaggertaor's run the more I like it.

Nyquist stays 4th. He would be a solid number one is he had had two routes like I'll Have Another did. This is a tough race for anyone who is going to beat him.

I had to add Creator since he is bred nicely and he did run well coming strong at the end. It seems there is a nice balance of closing horses and front runners in this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby which could make for a very exciting race.

I could not move up Mohaymen over Gun Runner. Gun Runner finished up strong. But Mohaymen's final 3 furlongs in the Remsen I believe is still the fastest final 3 furlongs in a 9 furlong race this year by three year old males. The question is whether he can deliver his best based upon the finish in the Florida Derby.

Suddenbreakingnews moves up. He flew for 2nd and really closed nicely. Shagaf moves down. And Danzing Candy moves down since I think he may have some distance issues in addition to not liking an off track.

Whitmore and Cupid are gone. I just could not see keeping Cupid on with a 10th place performance. Mohaymen finished some 8 lengths or so back and I have him, but I know Cupid got caught up in a speed duel, but to have nothing at all left does not bode well for the Kentucky Derby. I just have no idea was the jockey was thinking with those early fractions. When I heard 22 and change I said the race is over for him. Whitmore finished 3rd. He will be in the Derby. But I think he may be a Keen Ice type in that he needs the perfect set up to win so I cannot have him in my list because my list is not about where I think they might finish, but who I think will win.

We shall see if it stays this way.

1. Outwork (Uncle Mo and Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) 120
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs BSF 93
2nd Tampa Bay Derby, BSF 100

2. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dale Romans
G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 91
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

3. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 126
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 103
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

6. Creator (Tapit and Morena by Privately Held) 110
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs 93
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

7. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 91
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

8. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

9. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

10. My Man Sam (Trappe Shot by Tapit and Lauren Byrd by Arch) 40
Trainer: Chad Brown
2nd G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs

11. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
5th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
4th G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

[curtis]

Good luck with Outwork, I wouldn't bet him with your money but then again the sport is based on disagreements.

Cupid flipped his palate, which is why he quit so badly.  Usually when a horse drops away lake that it's either that or they bled.  I'm not saying had he been healthy he wins, as 22 and change is pretty fast, but the flipped palate explains a lot.  He'll have tie-back surgery and Baffert can run him in the Preakness if all goes well.

The only type of track I'll give a horse a pass on is an off track.  Some horses can get ahold of any type of off going--like Exaggerator--and it won't hinder their performance and others can get ahold of one but not another.  So in essence, Exaggerator doesn't move up on an off track but others move back.  The way Mor Spirit strides, I have no doubt he didn't like the track on Santa Anita Derby Day.  I don't like him any less--unless of course the track is slippery on Derby Day--than I did before.  My concern with him has always been his lack of a real turn of foot which may mean he either has to get very lucky or go very wide.

I still haven't seen anyone who I like more than Nyquist.  Since Doug O'Neil has trained more Derby winners than me, his preparation doesn't bother me a bit.  I don't care for his jockey but he has also ridden more Derby winners than I have.  I like Mor Spirit, Exaggerator and Mohaymen to find their way into the Super, perhaps.  Nothing else, save for Danzig Candy's brilliant turn of foot has impressed me.  My list is shorter, I guess.  If Nyquist draws the rail of course, my selections will be altered, but thus far this is my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Dusty]

Holy moley - I need to take the list in ,,,,,wow not what I was expecting

[Man o Taz]

Thanks.

I know I will need some luck with Outwork.

He is still very green but talented.

Nyquist is the veteran.

He has done it all so far. I just really cannot see that he will have the bottom to get 10 furlongs with a sprint and a route. But if he wins I will not be surprised at all because he has so far shown himself the most talented of this crop.

Thanks for the heads up on Cupid. He is out of the Derby so certainly off any lists.

Best of luck to everyone.