Man o' Taz's 2016 Derby Dozen

[peeptoad]

I think you will need some luck with Outwork, but he is not as far-fetched as some, mainly due to the possible pace scenario. The fact that he could barely hold off a maiden in the Wood is not an endorsement, but he ran well in the prior race against a horse regarded as better opposition (a horse I am staying away from, win or lose).

I don't have a list, but I am eagerly awaiting the post draw and the weather forecast. Those 2 will go a long way in helping me narrow down my selections.
If I had to say right now at this moment (without having fully had a chance to analyze every contender) I would tentatively go with these as my top 3:

1. Mor Spirit (fast only)
2. Creator
3. Gun Runner

Exaggerator;s chances increase on an off track, whereas that hinders Mor Spirit imho. Mor Spirit does not have a decent off track pedigree and he's now 0-2 under those conditions. Have to think a fast track puts him in a better spot.
Creator's biggest negative, by far, is his running style. If he had even a midpack style he'd be my top pick. However, he consistently runs well, regardless of pace and track condition, so he seems fairly adaptable despite that. The 19 other horses will likely get in his way tho.

Bring on the Derby Fever!

[curtis]

I think you will need some luck with Outwork, but he is not as far-fetched as some, mainly due to the possible pace scenario. The fact that he could barely hold off a maiden in the Wood is not an endorsement, but he ran well in the prior race against a horse regarded as better opposition (a horse I am staying away from, win or lose).

I don't have a list, but I am eagerly awaiting the post draw and the weather forecast. Those 2 will go a long way in helping me narrow down my selections.
If I had to say right now at this moment (without having fully had a chance to analyze every contender) I would tentatively go with these as my top 3:

1. Mor Spirit (fast only)
2. Creator
3. Gun Runner

Exaggerator;s chances increase on an off track, whereas that hinders Mor Spirit imho. Mor Spirit does not have a decent off track pedigree and he's now 0-2 under those conditions. Have to think a fast track puts him in a better spot.
Creator's biggest negative, by far, is his running style. If he had even a midpack style he'd be my top pick. However, he consistently runs well, regardless of pace and track condition, so he seems fairly adaptable despite that. The 19 other horses will likely get in his way tho.

Bring on the Derby Fever!

I agree with the draw and the weather.  It broke my heart a few years ago when Lookin' at Lucky drew the rail.  The horse seemed jinxed most of the winter and spring and then that horrible draw pretty much cost him a fair chance.  So if Nyquist draws one of the three inside posts, it will greatly decrease his chances, in my eyes.

I have the same misgivings about Mor Spirit that I had about Union Rags a few years ago.  It isn't so much that he isn't fast enough but that he isn't quick enough.  The Derby is kind of like driving in traffic on the freeway.  If your car has a V8 engine you can dart around and change lanes and get in and out of tight spots if needed.  If your driving a V6 Hybrid, you have much less immediate acceleration.  Knowing this, the jock riding the V6 Hybrid type, has to either get a dream run or go ungodly wide.  Stevens keeps intimating that Mor Spirit has some turn of foot.  Perhaps due to circumstances, e.g. preps being a means to an end, slick track for his last prep, etc., I've yet to see it.

Of the others, Exaggerator will of course be at an advantage if the track is off--any kind of off, it seems.  On a fast track, for him, timing is the key.  He's pretty consistent, it's just a matter of how his run is timed.  Mohaymen has the talent but I have just never been convinced he loves his job.  He's like the well-to do, kid who has a tennis racket, baseball bat, basketball, football, etc. shoved in his or her hands at a young age.  They may very well come up to a level of prime efficiency but in the end want to do something else.  Danzig Candy is interesting in that if the track is fast, he'll probably get the lead somewhat like Bodemeister did.  He'll go fast but I don't think he'll receive a ton of pressure.  If Mike can get him to rate a little bit, he could hold on for more than a small share.  The Destin thing reminds me of Will Take Charge in 2013.  I gotta believe something is up there. The Wood, the AK and LA Derby showed me nothing and none of those horses did a thing for me.  The Blue Grass I think was a better prep than any of those at least much better than it looked going in.  It's almost erie, this reminds me a lot of 1974 the last year after a long TC drought.  Some nice horses but none truly dominant, in fact it's been quite a while since I've seen a field filled with so many what if or yeah but types.   

[peeptoad]

I agree with the draw and the weather.  It broke my heart a few years ago when Lookin' at Lucky drew the rail.  The horse seemed jinxed most of the winter and spring and then that horrible draw pretty much cost him a fair chance.  So if Nyquist draws one of the three inside posts, it will greatly decrease his chances, in my eyes.

I have the same misgivings about Mor Spirit that I had about Union Rags a few years ago.  It isn't so much that he isn't fast enough but that he isn't quick enough. The Derby is kind of like driving in traffic on the freeway.  If your car has a V8 engine you can dart around and change lanes and get in and out of tight spots if needed.  If your driving a V6 Hybrid, you have much less immediate acceleration.  Knowing this, the jock riding the V6 Hybrid type, has to either get a dream run or go ungodly wide.  Stevens keeps intimating that Mor Spirit has some turn of foot.  Perhaps due to circumstances, e.g. preps being a means to an end, slick track for his last prep, etc., I've yet to see it.

Of the others, Exaggerator will of course be at an advantage if the track is off--any kind of off, it seems.  On a fast track, for him, timing is the key.  He's pretty consistent, it's just a matter of how his run is timed.  Mohaymen has the talent but I have just never been convinced he loves his job.  He's like the well-to do, kid who has a tennis racket, baseball bat, basketball, football, etc. shoved in his or her hands at a young age.  They may very well come up to a level of prime efficiency but in the end want to do something else.  Danzig Candy is interesting in that if the track is fast, he'll probably get the lead somewhat like Bodemeister did.  He'll go fast but I don't think he'll receive a ton of pressure.  If Mike can get him to rate a little bit, he could hold on for more than a small share.  The Destin thing reminds me of Will Take Charge in 2013.  I gotta believe something is up there. The Wood, the AK and LA Derby showed me nothing and none of those horses did a thing for me.  The Blue Grass I think was a better prep than any of those at least much better than it looked going in.  It's almost erie, this reminds me a lot of 1974 the last year after a long TC drought.  Some nice horses but none truly dominant, in fact it's been quite a while since I've seen a field filled with so many what if or yeah but types.

Re the bolded:I never thought about it quite that way, but it's true.
And, yeah, Mor Spirit is more of a grinding type. The fact that he can sit a bit closer than most of the others early on might help him out though. It's looking more and more like early speed will be dangerous and that does make Danzig Candy a potentially big threat... 

[Man o Taz]

Good insights.

Thanks,

Outwork only has a chance in my opinion if the Wood was an indication of the horse winning despite not delivering the best performance. I agree the race was slow. But I thought he was up against it and still won. And I really liked the way he ran in the Tampa Bay Derby. I know his final 3 furlong time was slow in his last race, but will all the traffic issues he had an the track surface I can forgive that. I really like the Unbridled's so that is a big factor for me.

I think the comparison to 1974 is an apt one.

Who is the Cannonade in the field? Outwork who finished 2nd to Destin?
Exaggerator who finished 2nd to Nyquist?
Mor Spirit who finished 2nd to Exaggerator and Danzing Candy?
Creator who finished 3rd to Cupid?

We shall see.

[peeptoad]

Not sure how I feel about Mor Spirit after that work... I wonder if he usually works in blinkers and I'm not familiar enough with the way he normally works to form a solid opinion though. I would say I'm a little cool on him now, esp. since some of the others have been reportedly looking excellent in the mornings.

[Man o Taz]

I tend not to give works over the track too much credence just because of what you suggest. Unless you have been watching a horse's works all along throughout the run up to the Derby, then it is very difficult to judge.

Do good works over the track always translate to success in the Kentucky Derby? I do not think so. I know American Pharoah worked well over the track. And California Chrome seemed to relish Churchill too. But so do a number of other horses. In fact, it seems that most horses train well over the surface.

Perhaps a better question might be, has there ever been a horse that did not train well over the Churchill track that still won the Kentucky Derby. Is that rare?

[peeptoad]

Can't answer that question without some research and I'm at work, but it's a good question.

I still prefer Mor Spirit over a fast track as opposed to slop and they apparently messed with his blinks fort this work (more severe blinkers) and I wonder if they will be in place for the Derby.


Indecision, indecision... waiting on that post draw next week!


I think the bigger question is why I suddenly seem to be a mod on this site. I have the modify and remove access for everyone's posts. How did this happen? 

[curtis]

Can't answer that question without some research and I'm at work, but it's a good question.

I still prefer Mor Spirit over a fast track as opposed to slop and they apparently messed with his blinks fort this work (more severe blinkers) and I wonder if they will be in place for the Derby.


Indecision, indecision... waiting on that post draw next week!


I think the bigger question is why I suddenly seem to be a mod on this site. I have the modify and remove access for everyone's posts. How did this happen? 

Since only approximately three people post here, I'm sure it's just luck of the draw.😉

[peeptoad]

Well, all three of you guys are on your own then... I ain't deleting or changing anything!

[Man o Taz]

peeptoad - I think its a result of the number of posts that you become a global moderator since I am one and received no special powers that I am aware of. lol.

I have been rewatching Outwork's races and I do not think he is a need the lead type. In his 2nd career race which occurred at 6 furlongs (10 months after his first start where he became the first Uncle Mo to win a race) he was in 2nd until past the half mile pole. Then he took the lead. Other than his 4 furlong win last April, his only loss came where he went right to the lead. In the Wood Memorial he sat a length back of Matt King Coal and then gradually moved up and actually showed some guts being a part of some sharp early fractions and still holding on to win the race. I think the biggest problem with this horse is his youth. But he is versatile. He can run fast. And I do not think he is distance limited. He came home slow on an awful track after a miserable trip where he broke first in the field and then settled back into 2nd. Being a young horse he loses his focus and I think that is what happened when he made the lead in the Wood and why it looked like he slowed down. It was like he made the lead and then said, "I'm done. I did it. Having a Hall of Fame jockey fortunately got his attention back on the matter at hand. Street Sense lost to Curli in the Preakness because of similar gawking. If a BC Juvenile winner can do it, I think a young horse making his 5th start int eh Kentucky Derby can be forgiven.

And Outwork just worked behind horses taking dirt and did well. I think a lot of people are going to expect a speed duel between Outwork and Danzing Candy that is just not going to happen. I think that these horses will be ridden to save their speed for a late kick, or just cruise to victory. I do not think that Danzing Candy needs the led either. The only other front running horse in the field is Nyquist who showed in the BC Juvenile he does not need the lead.

So, I think choosing a deep closer in this race like Mo Tom could be a big mistake since I do not think that he will get the pace to run at. I expect modest fraction mid 47s to 48 early. and about a 1:37 mile. 

[Raven]

Well, all three of you guys are on your own then... I ain't deleting or changing anything!

Please delete or change my picks, in the pick of the day, when they don't hit the board!!!

BTW, i'm here every day, but i don't know who i like for the Derby yet
As soon as i like something you guys, as always, will be the first to know!!!


Spiro

[peeptoad]

Please delete or change my picks, in the pick of the day, when they don't hit the board!!!

Ha ha, you got it! (nnnnnnot!) 

[Dusty]

peeptoad - I think its a result of the number of posts that you become a global moderator since I am one and received no special powers that I am aware of. lol.

I have been rewatching Outwork's races and I do not think he is a need the lead type. In his 2nd career race which occurred at 6 furlongs (10 months after his first start where he became the first Uncle Mo to win a race) he was in 2nd until past the half mile pole. Then he took the lead. Other than his 4 furlong win last April, his only loss came where he went right to the lead. In the Wood Memorial he sat a length back of Matt King Coal and then gradually moved up and actually showed some guts being a part of some sharp early fractions and still holding on to win the race. I think the biggest problem with this horse is his youth. But he is versatile. He can run fast. And I do not think he is distance limited. He came home slow on an awful track after a miserable trip where he broke first in the field and then settled back into 2nd. Being a young horse he loses his focus and I think that is what happened when he made the lead in the Wood and why it looked like he slowed down. It was like he made the lead and then said, "I'm done. I did it. Having a Hall of Fame jockey fortunately got his attention back on the matter at hand. Street Sense lost to Curli in the Preakness because of similar gawking. If a BC Juvenile winner can do it, I think a young horse making his 5th start int eh Kentucky Derby can be forgiven.

And Outwork just worked behind horses taking dirt and did well. I think a lot of people are going to expect a speed duel between Outwork and Danzing Candy that is just not going to happen. I think that these horses will be ridden to save their speed for a late kick, or just cruise to victory. I do not think that Danzing Candy needs the led either. The only other front running horse in the field is Nyquist who showed in the BC Juvenile he does not need the lead.

So, I think choosing a deep closer in this race like Mo Tom could be a big mistake since I do not think that he will get the pace to run at. I expect modest fraction mid 47s to 48 early. and about a 1:37 mile.

We do have powers - but they are for safety and to keep this place clean - good news - we have some authority - but with this group - easy job!

[Raven]

I second Dusty's comments!!

[Man o Taz]

We do have powers - but they are for safety and to keep this place clean - good news - we have some authority - but with this group - easy job!

Perhaps I phrased it wrong, we do not have any powers that I have a clue how to exercise. lol